Estimating the lifetime risk of dementia using nationwide individually linked cause-of-death and health register data

2025 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2025 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2024 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. This year's edition includes a continued focus on health equity across several key domains and enhanced global data that reflect improved methods and incorporation of ≈3000 new data sources since last year's Statistical Update.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Long-Term Dementia Risk in Parkinson Disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

It is widely cited that dementia occurs in up to 80% of patients with Parkinson disease (PD), but studies reporting such high rates were published over two decades ago, had relatively small samples, and had other limitations. We aimed to determine long-term dementia risk in PD using data from two large, ongoing, prospective, observational studies.

METHODS

Participants from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI), a multisite international study, and a long-standing PD research cohort at the University of Pennsylvania (Penn), a single site study at a tertiary movement disorders center, were recruited. PPMI enrolled de novo, untreated PD participants and Penn a convenience cohort from a large clinical center. For PPMI, a cognitive battery is administered annually, and a site investigator makes a cognitive diagnosis. At Penn, a comprehensive cognitive battery is administered either annually or biennially, and a cognitive diagnosis is made by expert consensus. Interval-censored survival curves were fit for time from PD diagnosis to stable dementia diagnosis for each cohort, using cognitive diagnosis of dementia as the primary end point and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score <21 and Movement Disorder Society-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) Part I cognition score ≥3 as secondary end points for PPMI. In addition, estimated dementia probability by PD disease duration was tabulated for each study and end point.

RESULTS

For the PPMI cohort, 417 participants with PD (mean age 61.6 years, 65% male) were followed, with an estimated probability of dementia at year 10 disease duration of 9% (site investigator diagnosis), 15% (MoCA), or 12% (MDS-UPDRS Part I cognition). For the Penn cohort, 389 participants with PD (mean age 69.3 years, 67% male) were followed, with 184 participants (47% of cohort) eventually diagnosed with dementia. The interval-censored curve for the Penn cohort had a median time to dementia of 15 years (95% CI 13-15); the estimated probability of dementia was 27% at 10 years of disease duration, 50% at 15 years, and 74% at 20 years.

DISCUSSION

Results from two large, prospective studies suggest that dementia in PD occurs less frequently, or later in the disease course, than previous research studies have reported.

Age of Diabetes Diagnosis and Lifetime Risk of Dementia: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

OBJECTIVE

The impact of age of diabetes diagnosis on dementia risk across the life course is poorly characterized. We estimated the lifetime risk of dementia by age of diabetes diagnosis.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We included 13,087 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study who were free from dementia at age 60 years. We categorized participants as having middle age-onset diabetes (diagnosis <60 years), older-onset diabetes (diagnosis 60-69 years), or no diabetes. Incident dementia was ascertained via adjudication and active surveillance. We used the cumulative incidence function estimator to characterize the lifetime risk of dementia by age of diabetes diagnosis while accounting for the competing risk of mortality. We used restricted mean survival time to calculate years lived without and with dementia.

RESULTS

Among 13,087 participants, there were 2,982 individuals with dementia and 4,662 deaths without dementia during a median follow-up of 24.1 (percentile 25-percentile 75, 17.4-28.3) years. Individuals with middle age-onset diabetes had a significantly higher lifetime risk of dementia than those with older-onset diabetes (36.0% vs. 31.0%). Compared with those with no diabetes, participants with middle age-onset diabetes also had a higher cumulative incidence of dementia by age 80 years (16.1% vs. 9.4%) but a lower lifetime risk (36.0% vs. 45.6%) due to shorter survival. Individuals with middle age-onset diabetes developed dementia 4 and 1 years earlier than those without diabetes and those with older-onset diabetes, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Preventing or delaying diabetes may be an important approach for reducing dementia risk throughout the life course.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Consensus definition of advance care planning in dementia: A 33-country Delphi study

INTRODUCTION

Existing advance care planning (ACP) definitional frameworks apply to individuals with decision-making capacity. We aimed to conceptualize ACP for dementia in terms of its definition and issues that deserve particular attention.

METHODS

Delphi study with phases: (A) adaptation of a generic ACP framework by a task force of the European Association for Palliative Care (EAPC); (B) four online surveys by 107 experts from 33 countries, September 2021 to June 2022; (C) approval by the EAPC board.

RESULTS

ACP in dementia was defined as a communication process adapted to the person's capacity, which includes, and is continued with, family if available. We identified pragmatic boundaries regarding participation and time (i.e., current or end-of-life care). Three interrelated issues that deserve particular attention were capacity, family, and engagement and communication.

DISCUSSION

A communication and relationship-centered definitional framework of ACP in dementia evolved through international consensus supporting inclusiveness of persons with dementia and their family.

HIGHLIGHTS

This article offers a consensus definitional framework of advance care planning in dementia. The definition covers all stages of capacity and includes family caregivers. Particularly important are (1) capacity, (2) family, (3) engagement, and communication. Fluctuating capacity was visualized in relation to roles and engaging stakeholders.

Year-by-Year Blood Pressure Variability From Midlife to Death and Lifetime Dementia Risk

Importance

High visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) in late life may reflect increased dementia risk better than mean systolic blood pressure (SBP). Evidence from midlife to late life could be crucial to understanding this association.

Objective

To determine whether visit-to-visit BPV at different ages was differentially associated with lifetime incident dementia risk in community-dwelling individuals.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study analyzed data from the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) study, an ongoing population-based prospective cohort study in the US. Participants were 65 years or older at enrollment, community-dwelling, and without dementia. The study focused on a subset of deceased participants with brain autopsy data and whose midlife to late-life blood pressure data were obtained from Kaiser Permanente Washington medical archives and collected as part of the postmortem brain donation program. In the ACT study, participants underwent biennial medical assessments, including cognitive screening. Data were collected from 1994 (ACT study enrollment) through November 2019 (data set freeze). Data analysis was performed between March 2020 and September 2023.

Exposures

Visit-by-visit BPV at ages 60, 70, 80, and 90 years, calculated using the coefficient of variation of year-by-year SBP measurements over the preceding 10 years.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause dementia, which was adjudicated by a multidisciplinary outcome adjudication committee.

Results

A total of 820 participants (mean [SD] age at enrollment, 77.0 [6.7] years) were analyzed and included 476 females (58.0%). A mean (SD) of 28.4 (8.4) yearly SBP measurements were available over 31.5 (9.0) years. The mean (SD) follow-up time was 32.2 (9.1) years in 27 885 person-years from midlife to death. Of the participants, 372 (45.4%) developed dementia. The number of participants who were alive without dementia and had available data for analysis ranged from 280 of those aged 90 years to 702 of those aged 70 years. Higher BPV was not associated with higher lifetime dementia risk at age 60, 70, or 80 years. At age 90 years, BPV was associated with 35% higher dementia risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% CI, 1.02-1.79). Meta-regression of HRs calculated separately for each age (60-90 years) indicated that associations of high BPV with higher dementia risk were present only at older ages, whereas the association of SBP with dementia gradually shifted direction linearly from being incrementally to inversely associated with older ages.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, high BPV indicated increased lifetime dementia risk in late life but not in midlife. This result suggests that high BPV may indicate increased dementia risk in older age but might be less viable as a midlife dementia prevention target.

Frailty at death: An examination of multiple causes of death in four low mortality countries in 2017

BACKGROUND

The increasing prevalence of frailty in aging populations represents a major social and public health challenge which warrants a better understanding of the contribution of frailty to the morbid process.

OBJECTIVE

To examine frailty-related mortality as reported on the death certificate in France, Italy, Spain and the United States in 2017.

METHODS

We identify frailty at death for the population aged 50 years and over in France, Italy, Spain and the United States. We estimate the proportions of deaths by sex, age group and country with specific frailty-related ICD-codes on the death certificate 1) as the underlying cause of death (UC), 2) elsewhere in Part I (sequence of diseases or conditions or events leading directly to death), and 3) anywhere in Part II (conditions that do not belong in Part I but whose presence contributed to death).

RESULTS

The age-standardized proportion of deaths with frailty at ages 50 and over is highest in Italy (25.0%), then in France (24.1%) and Spain (17.3%), and lowest in the United States (14.0%). Cross-country differences are smaller when frailty-related codes are either the underlying cause of the death or reported in Part II. Frailty-related mortality increases with age and is higher among females than males. Dementia is the most frequently reported frailty-related code.

CONCLUSIONS

Notable cross-country differences were found in the prevalence and the type of frailty-related symptoms at death even after adjusting for differential age distributions.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2023 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2022 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. The American Heart Association strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) publications, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Is the Rise in Reported Dementia Mortality Real? Analysis of Multiple-Cause-of-Death Data for Australia and the United States

Official statistics in Australia and the United States show large recent increases in dementia mortality rates. In this study, we assessed whether these trends are biased by an increasing tendency of medical certifiers (predominantly physicians) to report on the death certificate that dementia was a direct cause of death. Regression models of multiple-cause-of-death data in Australia (2006-2016) and the United States (2006-2017) were constructed to adjust dementia mortality rates for changes in death certification practices. Compared with official statistics, the recent increase in adjusted age-standardized dementia death rates was less than half as large in Australia and about two-thirds as large in the United States. Further adjustment for changes in reporting of dementia anywhere on the death certificate implied even lower increases in dementia mortality. Declines in reporting of cardiovascular diseases as comorbid conditions also contributed to rises in dementia mortality rates. The increasing likelihood of dementia's being reported as directly leading to death largely explains recent increases in dementia mortality rates in both countries. However, studies have found that reported dementia on death certificates remains low compared with clinical evaluations of its prevalence. Improved guidance and training for certifiers in reporting of dementia on death certificates will help standardize mortality statistics within and between countries.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2022 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2022 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population and an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, and the global burden of cardiovascular disease and healthy life expectancy.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Sex Differences in the Risk of Dementia in Older Veterans

BACKGROUND

Studies have demonstrated women to have a higher prevalence of dementia compared to men. However, sex differences in dementia incidence are controversial with conflicting reports showing women with higher, lower, or similar incidence. Source of difference may be due to clinical setting and lack of consideration of competing risk of death. We examined dementia incidence in a sample of the national Veteran population to determine differences by sex.

METHODS

We examined data from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), the largest integrated health care system in the United States. We studied 947 797 Veterans aged ≥55 years (mean age: 69.9 ± 8.4, 3% female) evaluated in the VHA from October 1, 1999 to September 30, 2019. We estimated age-adjusted incidence rates of dementia (International Classification of Diseases, 9th and 10th Edition codes) by sex, and used Fine-Gray proportional hazards models with age as time scale to examine time to diagnosis, accounting for competing risk of death.

RESULTS

During the follow-up (mean 8.4 years), 11.3% (n = 106 977, 11.4% men and 8.0% women) of Veterans developed dementia. Age-adjusted incidence was 12.6/1 000 person-years for men and 12.7/1 000 person-years for women. Compared to male Veterans, risk dementia was slightly higher among females (hazard ratio = 1.15; 95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.20), and on average, female Veterans developed dementia 0.2 years earlier than male Veterans. After additional adjustment for race, education, medical, and psychiatric conditions, results were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Among older Veterans in a national cohort, women had a slightly increased risk for developing dementia compared to men after accounting for competing risk of death.