Low-level viraemia, measured as viraemia copy-years, as a prognostic factor for medium-long-term all-cause mortality: a MASTER cohort study

Systematic review on cumulative HIV viraemia among people living with HIV receiving antiretroviral treatment and its association with mortality and morbidity

BACKGROUND

We performed a systematic review to generate evidence on the association between cumulative human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viraemia and health outcomes.

METHODS

Quantitative studies reporting on HIV cumulative viraemia (CV) and its association with health outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral treatment (ART) were included. We searched MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase, Scopus and Web of Science and conference abstracts from 1 January 2008 to 1 August 2022.

RESULTS

The systematic review included 26 studies. The association between CV and mortality depended on the study population, methods used to calculate CV and its level. Higher CV was not consistently associated with greater risk of acquire immunodeficiency syndrome-defining clinical conditions. However, four studies present a strong relationship between CV and cardiovascular disease. The risk was not confirmed in relation of increased hazards of stroke. Studies that assessed the effect of CV on the risk of cancer reported a positive association between CV and malignancy, although the effect may differ for different types of cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

CV is associated with adverse health outcomes in PLHIV on ART, especially at higher levels. However, its role in clinical and programmatic monitoring and management of PLHIV on ART is yet to be established.

Non-suppressible viraemia during HIV-1 therapy: a challenge for clinicians

In individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), persistent low-level viraemia not attributed to suboptimal ART adherence, detrimental pharmacological interactions, or drug resistance is referred to as non-suppressible viraemia (NSV). This Review presents recent findings in the virological characterisation of NSV, revealing that it consists of one or a few identical populations of plasma viruses without signs of evolution. This finding suggests that NSV originates from virus production by expanded HIV-infected cell clones, reflecting the persistence of the HIV reservoir despite ART. We discuss knowledge gaps regarding the management and the clinical consequences of NSV. The prevalence of NSV remains to be precisely determined and there is very little understanding of its effects on virological failure, HIV transmission, secondary inflammation, morbidity, and mortality. This issue, along with the absence of specific recommendations for the management of NSV in HIV clinical guidelines, underscores the complexities involved in treating individuals with NSV.

Factors associated with human immunodeficiency virus-1 low-level viremia and its impact on virological and immunological outcomes: A retrospective cohort study in Beijing, China

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated the impact of low-level viremia (LLV) on virological failure and immune reconstitution among people living with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) treated with different antiretroviral regimens in Beijing, China.

METHODS

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1-positive adults who were registered at an infectious disease hospital in Beijing between January 1, 2005 and January 1, 2020 were administered antiretroviral therapy (ART) and whose viral load and CD4 counts were monitored were included in this retrospective cohort study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors associated with LLV in patients on different ART regimens. Cox proportional hazard model was employed to analyze the virological suppression and immune reconstitution cumulative probability in patients with LLV during follow-up.

RESULTS

A total of 10 124 HIV-1-infected participants was included. LLV occurred in 723 (8.2%), 204 (10.9%), 133 (8.6%), and 53 (14.4%) patients on first-line ART, second-line ART, third-line ART, and simplified regimens, respectively. Virological failure occurred in 514 (5.8%), 289 (15.5%), 86 (5.5%), and 34 (9.2%) patients on first-line ART, second-line ART, third-line ART, and simplified regimens, respectively. Earlier enrollment, lower baseline CD4 count, and higher baseline viral load were risk factors associated with LLV. LLV was related to increased hazards of virological failure compared to viral suppression of ≤50 copies/ml for those on first-line ART.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of virological failure and poor immune reconstitution increases when LLV occurs. Targeted viral load and CD4 count monitoring are recommended for people living with HIV-1 with LLV to improve health-related outcomes.

Persistent low-Level viremia in persons living with HIV undertreatment: An unresolved status

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) allows suppressed viremia to reach less than 50 copies/mL in most treated persons living with HIV (PLWH). However, the existence of PLWH that show events of persistent low-level viremia (pLLV) between 50 and 1000 copies/mL and with different virological consequences have been observed. PLLV has been associated with higher virological failure (VF), viral genotype resistance, adherence difficulties and AIDS events. Moreover, some reports show that pLLV status can lead to residual immune activation and inflammation, with an increased risk of immunovirological failure and a pro-inflammatory cytokine level which can lead to a higher occurrence of non-AIDS defining events (NADEs) and other adverse clinical outcomes. Until now, however, published data have shown controversial results that hinder understanding of the true cause(s) and origin(s) of this phenomenon. Molecular mechanisms related to viral reservoir size and clonal expansion have been suggested as the possible origin of pLLV. This review aims to assess recent findings to provide a global view of the role of pLLV in PLWH and the impact this status may cause on the clinical progression of these patients.

Cumulative HIV Viremia Copy-Years and Hypertension in People Living with HIV

BACKGROUND

Evidence regarding the association between HIV viral load (VL) and hypertension is inconsistent. In this study, we investigated the relationship using viremia copy-years (VCY), a cumulative measure of HIV plasma viral burden.

METHODS

Data were analyzed for 686 PLWH in the Florida Cohort Study, who had at least five years of VL data before the baseline. VL data were extracted from Enhanced HIV/AIDS Reporting System (eHARS) and used to define peak VL (pVL), recent VL (rVL), and undetectable VL (uVL: rVL<50copies/mL). A five-year VCY (log10 copy × years/mL) before the baseline investigation, was calculated and divided into 5 groups (≤2.7, 2.8-3.7, 3.8-4.7, 4.8-5.7 and >5.7) for analysis. Hypertension was determined based on hypertension diagnosis from medical records. Multivariable logistic regression was used for association analysis.

RESULTS

Of the total sample, 277 (40.4%) participants were hypertensive. Compared to the participants with lowest VCY (≤2.7 log10 copy × years/mL), the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval [95% CI] for hypertension of the remaining four groups, in order, were 1.91 [1.11, 3.29], 1.91 [1.03, 3.53], 2.27 [1.29, 3.99], and 1.25 [0.65, 2.42], respectively, controlling for confounders. The association was independent of pVL, rVL, and uVL, each of which was not significantly associated with hypertension.

CONCLUSION

Persistent HIV infection is a risk factor for hypertension among PLWH. Information provided by VCY is more effective than single time-point VL measures in investigating HIV infection- hypertension relationship. The findings of this study support the significance of continuous viral suppression in hypertension prevention among PLWH.

HIV viral exposure and mortality in a multicenter ambulatory HIV adult cohort, United States, 1995-2016

The aim of this study was to identify viral exposure (VE) measures and their relationship to mortality risk among persons with HIV.Prospective multicenter observational study to compare VE formulae.Eligible participants initiated first combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) between March 1, 1995 and June 30, 2015. We included 1645 participants followed for ≥6 months after starting first cART, with cART prescribed ≥75% of time, who underwent ≥2 plasma viral load (VL) and ≥1 CD4+ T-lymphocyte cell (CD4) measurement during observation. We evaluated all-cause mortality from 6 months after cART initiation until June 30, 2016. VE was quantified using 2 time-updated variables: viremia copy-years and percent of person-years (%PY) spent >200 or 50 copies/mL. Cox models were fit to estimate associations between VE and mortality.Participants contributed 10,453 person years [py], with median 14 VLs per patient. Median %PY >200 or >50 were 10% (interquartile range: 1%-47%) and 26% (interquartile range: 6%-72%), respectively. There were 115 deaths, for an overall mortality rate of 1.19 per 100 person years. In univariate models, each measure of VE was significantly associated with mortality risk, as were older age, public insurance, injection drug use HIV risk history, and lower pre-cART CD4. Based on model fit, most recent viral load and %PY >200 copies/mL provided the best combination of VE factors to predict mortality, although all VE combinations evaluated performed well.The combination of most recent VL and %PY >200 copies/mL best predicted mortality, although all evaluated VE measures performed well.

All-Cause Mortality and Serious Non-AIDS Events in Adults With Low-level Human Immunodeficiency Virus Viremia During Combination Antiretroviral Therapy: Results From a Swedish Nationwide Observational Study

Background

The impact of low levels of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA (low-level viremia [LLV]) during combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) on clinical outcomes is unclear. We explored the associations between LLV and all-cause mortality, AIDS, and serious non-AIDS events (SNAEs).

Methods

We grouped individuals starting cART 1996–2017 (identified from the Swedish InfCare HIV register) as virologic suppression (VS; <50 copies/mL), LLV (repeated viral load, 50–999 copies/mL), and nonsuppressed viremia (NSV; ≥1000 copies/mL). Separately, LLV was subdivided into 50–199 and 200–999 copies/mL (reflecting different definitions of virologic failure). Proportional-hazard models (including sex, age, pre-ART CD4 count and viral load, country of birth, injection drug use, treatment experience and interruptions, and an interaction term between viremia and time) were fitted for the study outcomes.

Results

A total of 6956 participants were followed for a median of 5.7 years. At the end of follow-up, 60% were categorized as VS, 9% as LLV, and 31% as NSV. Compared with VS, LLV was associated with increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3–3.6). This association was also observed for LLV 50–199 copies/mL (aHR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3–3.8), but was not statistically significant for LLV 200–999 copies/mL (aHR, 2.1; 95% CI, .96–4.7). LLV 50–999 copies/mL was not linked to increased risk of AIDS or SNAEs, but in subanalysis, LLV 200–999 copies/mL was associated with SNAEs (aHR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.2–3.6).

Conclusions

In this population-based cohort, LLV during cART was associated with adverse clinical outcomes.

Predictive factors of viral load high-risk events for virological failure in HIV/AIDS patients receiving long-term antiviral therapy

Background

In the era of anti-retroviral therapy (ART), the plasma HIV viral load (VL) is an important primary indicator for monitoring the HIV treatment response. To optimize the clinical management of HIV/AIDS patients, we investigated VL high-risk events related to virological failure (VF) and further explored the preventive factors of VL high-risk events.

Methods

The data were derived from China’s HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. HIV infected patients who initiated or received ART in Guangxi between 2003 and 2019 were included. The contributions of VL after 6 months of ART to VF and AIDS-related death were analysed by Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank tests and Cox regression analyses. Both descriptive analyses and bivariate logistic regression were employed to further explore the preventive factors related to VL high-risk events of VF.

Results

The cumulative rates of VF in the high low-level viremia group (high LLV) (χ² = 18.45; P <  0.001) and non-suppressed group (χ² = 82.99; P <  0.001) were significantly higher than those in the viral suppression (VS) group. Therefore, the VL high-risk events of VF was defined as highest VL > 200 copies/ml after 6 months of ART. Compared with the VS group, the adjusted hazard risk was 7.221 (95% CI: 2.668; 19.547) in the high LLV group and 8.351 (95% CI: 4.253; 16.398) in the non-suppressed group. Compared with single patients, married or cohabiting (AOR = 0.591; 95% CI: 0.408, 0.856) and divorced or separated (AOR = 0.425, 95% CI: 0.207, 0.873) patients were negatively associated with VL high-risk events. So were patients acquired HIV homosexually (AOR = 0.572; 95% CI: 0.335, 0.978). However, patients who had ART modification were 1.728 times (95% CI: 1.093, 2.732) more likely to have VL high-risk events, and patients who used cotrimoxazole during ART were 1.843 times (95% CI: 1.271, 2.672) more likely to have VL high-risk events.

Conclusions

A VL greater than 200 copies/ml is a VL high-risk event for VF. Intervention measurements should be adopted to optimize the surveillance of ART in patients who are single or widowed, who have ART modification, and who use cotrimoxazole during ART.

Factors associated with high-risk low-level viremia leading to virologic failure: 16-year retrospective study of a Chinese antiretroviral therapy cohort

BACKGROUND

Low level viremia (LLV) often occurs during antiretroviral therapy (ART) against HIV-1. However, whether LLV increases the risk of virologic failure (VF) is controversial because of the non-uniform definitions of LLV and VF.

METHODS

A long-term first line regimen ART cohort from 2002 to 2018 from Shenyang, northeast China, was retrospectively studied. All participants were followed up every 3 to 6 months to evaluate the treatment effect. The high-risk LLV subgroups leading to VF (with strict standards) were explored with Cox proportional hazards model and linear mixed-effect model. The association factors of high-risk LLV were further explored using multivariate logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 2155 HIV-1 infected participants were included; of these, 38.7% showed LLV. Both high level LLV (HLLV) and any other level LLV coupled with high level blip (HLB) showed higher risk of VF (hazards ratios, HR_HLLV = 5.93, and HR_HLB = 2.84, p <  0.05 respectively). Moreover, HR increased with prolonged duration of LLV. Independent factors associated with high-risk LLV included the zenith baseline viral load (VL) above 6 log copies/ml (aOR = 3.49, p = 0.002), nadir baseline CD4 + T cell counts below 200 cells/mm³ (aOR = 1.78, p = 0.011), Manchu (aOR = 2.03, p = 0.003), ART over 60 months (aOR = 1.81, p = 0.004), AZT + 3TC + NVP (aOR = 2.26, p <  0.001) or DDI-based regimen (aOR = 9.96, p = 0.002), and subtype B' infection (aOR = 8.22, p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In case of VF with strict standards, high-risk LLV leading to VF includes VL above 400 copies/ml, occurring at least once. Serious laboratory indicators or advanced stage of infection, long term ART and subtype B' infection might also predict the occurrence of high-risk LLV.

Copy-Years Viremia and Risk of Virological Failure in Long-Term-Treated HIV Patients

BACKGROUND

Viremia copy-years (VCY) is associated with mortality and disease outcome prediction. This study evaluated the association of VCY with virological failure (VF), defined as a plasma viral load (pVL) >400 copies/mL, and with single levels of viremia.

METHODS

Eight hundred and fifty antiretroviral therapy (ART)-treated patients with pVL < 37 copies/mL [target not detected or target detected (TD)] or >37, but less than 200 copies/mL (low-level viremia), and at least 6-pVL measures during 54 months of follow-up were selected. VCY was calculated individually over the follow-up as the area under pVL curve. Pearson's χ test was used to analyze differences in VCY quartiles distribution between groups.

RESULTS

Higher VCY values were detected in patients with low-level viremia {294 copy-years [interquartile range (IQR): 99-1870]} than in TD [52 copy-years (IQR: 53-153)] and target not detected groups [19 copy-years (IQR: 8-54)]. VCY was also significantly different between patients with undetectable viremia and patients with basal pVL TD (P < 0.001). Pearson's χ test revealed a significant association between VCY and basal levels of viremia (P < 0.0001). In addition, the risk of VF rose with increasing VCY (Hazard ratio 1.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.01 to 1.02).

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed the association of VCY with VF and with single levels of viremia suggesting that, despite the success of ART, minimal residual viremia may cause the cumulative viral burden to rise. Full viral load suppression during ART is crucial to limit the increase in VCY.

Bias in the estimation of cumulative viremia in cohort studies of HIV-infected individuals

PURPOSE

The use of cumulative measures of exposure to raised HIV viral load (viremia copy-years) is increasingly common in HIV prevention and treatment epidemiology due to the association of long-term elevated viral load with more rapid progression to disease. We sought to estimate the magnitude and direction of bias in a cumulative measure of viremia caused by different frequency of sampling and duration of follow-up.

METHODS

We simulated longitudinal viral load measures and reanalyzed cohort study data sets with longitudinal viral load measurements under different sampling strategies to estimate cumulative viremia.

RESULTS

In both simulated and observed data, estimates of cumulative viremia by the trapezoidal rule show systematic upward bias when there are fewer sampling time points and/or increased duration between sampling time points, compared with estimation of full time series. Absolute values of cumulative viremia vary appreciably by the patterns of viral load over time, even after adjustment for total duration of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Sampling bias due to differential frequency of sampling appears extensive and of meaningful magnitude in measures of cumulative viremia. Cumulative measures of viremia should be used only in studies with sufficient frequency of viral load measures and always as relative measures.

Viremia copy-years and mortality among combination antiretroviral therapy-initiating HIV-positive individuals: how much viral load history is enough?

OBJECTIVE

Ongoing HIV replication while receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) may reduce survival. Viremia copy-years (VCY) has shown improved mortality risk prediction over single time-point viral load measures. However, the timing of a patient's viral load history most associated with later mortality has not been studied. Here we determined the optimal duration and temporality of viral load history for predicting mortality.

DESIGN

Survival analysis among HIV-positive men who initiated cART in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (1995-2015).

METHODS

VCY measures were derived from area-under-the-viral load-curve. The overall VCY based upon the complete post-cART viral load history was compared with 20 VCYs derived from viral loads assessed during different shorter time periods (the most recent 1-10 years and initial 1-10 years following cART initiation) for associations with mortality.

RESULTS

Each 10-fold increase in VCYs based on the most recent 3-8 years was significantly associated with 23-26% decrease in survival times, a magnitude of effect greater than that of the most recent viral load (16%). These associations were independent of CD4 cell count and single time-point viral loads. In addition, the degree of pre-cART immunodeficiency did not affect the mortality prognostic value of VCY based on viral loads in the most recent 3 years. Conversely, the overall VCY and VCYs based on viral loads immediately following cART initiation were not independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Among cART-treated men, VCY based upon viral loads in the recent 3 years (six viral loads) has a mortality prognostic value greater than that of the overall VCY and single time-point viral loads, making the former a more feasible measure for use.

Role of Normalized T-Cell Subsets in Predicting Comorbidities in a Large Cohort of Geriatric HIV-Infected Patients

BACKGROUND

Adults aging with HIV are at greater risk for several comorbidities. The CD4 cell count and CD4/CD8 ratio often fail to normalize in elderly patients despite prolonged antiretroviral therapy; this has been associated with concomitant diseases and poor prognosis.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis in antiretroviral-treated HIV-positive patients aged 65 years and older. The aim of the study was to describe the predictors of normalized T-cell subsets ("nT", CD4/CD8 ratio ≥1 and CD4 ≥500 cells/μL) in a cohort of geriatric HIV-positive patients and its association with HIV-associated non-AIDS conditions (HANA).

RESULTS

One thousand ninety-two patients were included: nT was observed in 340 patients (31.1%). Multivariate binary logistic analysis showed that plasma HIV RNA <50 copies/mL (P = 0.004), female sex (P = 0.002), and nadir CD4 cell count (P < 0.001) were independent predictors of nT. Age and sex-adjusted prevalence of hypertension (P = 0.037), lipid abnormalities (P = 0.040), and multimorbidity (P = 0.034) were higher in subjects with nT, whereas chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cancer were lower (respectively, P = 0.028 and P = 0.005). Multivariate analysis showed that HIV duration was an independent predictor of several comorbidities, whereas nT was protective for cancer and COPD. HIV duration and nT were simultaneously predictors of multimorbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Normalized T-cell subsets were observed in approximately one-third of geriatric HIV-positive subjects, and they were predicted by female sex and immunovirological features. HIV-associated non-AIDS conditions were more prevalent in patients with longer HIV duration, whereas nT represented a protective factor for cancer and COPD.

Virological failure and all-cause mortality in HIV-positive adults with low-level viremia during antiretroviral treatment

Objective

Although most HIV-infected individuals achieve undetectable viremia during antiretroviral therapy (ART), a subset have low-level viremia (LLV) of varying duration and magnitude. The impact of LLV on treatment outcomes is unclear. We investigated the association between LLV and virological failure and/or all-cause mortality among Swedish patients receiving ART.

Methods

HIV-infected patients from two Swedish HIV centers were identified from the nationwide register InfCare HIV. Subjects aged ≥15 years with triple agent ART were included at 12 months after treatment initiation if ≥2 following viral load measurements were available. Patients with 2 consecutive HIV RNA values ≥1000 copies/mL at this time point were excluded. Participants were stratified into four categories depending on viremia profiles: permanently suppressed viremia (<50 copies/mL), LLV 50–199 copies/mL, LLV 200–999 copies/mL and viremia ≥1000 copies/mL. Association between all four viremia categories and all-cause death was calculated using survival analysis with viremia as a time-varying covariate, so that patients could change viremia category during follow-up. Association between the three lower categories and virological failure (≥2 consecutive measurements ≥1000 copies/mL) was calculated in a similar manner.

Results

LLV 50–199 copies/mL was recorded in 70/1015 patients (6.9%) and LLV 200–999 copies/mL in 89 (8.8%) during 7812 person-years of follow-up (median 6.5 years). LLV 200–999 copies/mL was associated with virological failure (adjusted hazard ratio 3.14 [95% confidence interval 1.41–7.03, p<0.01]), whereas LLV 50–199 copies/mL was not (1.01 [0.34–4.31, p = 0.99]; median follow-up 4.5 years). LLV 200–999 copies/mL had an adjusted mortality hazard ratio of 2.29 (0.98–5.32, p = 0.05) and LLV 50–199 copies/mL of 2.19 (0.90–5.37, p = 0.09).

Conclusions

In this Swedish cohort followed during ART for a median of 4.5 years, LLV 200–999 copies/mL was independently associated with virological failure. Patients with LLV had higher rates of all-cause mortality, although not statistically significant in multivariate analysis.