Pitfalls and windfalls of detecting demographic declines using population genetics in long-lived species

Detecting recent demographic changes is a crucial component of species conservation and management, as many natural populations face declines due to anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change. Genetic methods allow researchers to detect changes in effective population size (N e ) from sampling at a single timepoint. However, in species with long lifespans, there is a lag between the start of a decline in a population and the resulting decrease in genetic diversity. This lag slows the rate at which diversity is lost, and therefore makes it difficult to detect recent declines using genetic data. However, the genomes of old individuals can provide a window into the past, and can be compared to those of younger individuals, a contrast that may help reveal recent demographic declines. To test whether comparing the genomes of young and old individuals can help infer recent demographic bottlenecks, we use forward-time, individual-based simulations with varying mean individual lifespans and extents of generational overlap. We find that age information can be used to aid in the detection of demographic declines when the decline has been severe. When average lifespan is long, comparing young and old individuals from a single timepoint has greater power to detect a recent (within the last 50 years) bottleneck event than comparing individuals sampled at different points in time. Our results demonstrate how longevity and generational overlap can be both a hindrance and a boon to detecting recent demographic declines from population genomic data.

Ecological and demographic impacts of a recent volcanic eruption on two endemic patagonian rodents

Catastrophic events can significantly impact the demographic processes that shape natural populations of organisms. However, linking the outcomes of such events to specific demographic parameters is often challenging due to a lack of detailed pre-event data. The eruption of the Puyehue-Cordon Caulle volcanic complex on 4 June 2011 had profound consequences for the biota of southwestern Argentina. Our long-term behavioral, ecological, and demographic studies of two species of tuco-tucos (Ctenomys sociabilis and C. haigi) that occur in the region most heavily impacted by ash fall from the eruption provided an unusual opportunity to assess the effects of this event on natural populations of mammals. The post-eruption density of the study population for each species was markedly reduced compared to pre-eruption values, with the relative magnitude of this reduction being greater for the group-living C. sociabilis. The more extensive data set for this species indicated that ash fall from the eruption altered the food resources available to these animals; differences in pre- and post-eruption stable isotope signatures for fur samples from C. sociabilis were consistent with observed changes in vegetation. Per capita female reproductive success was also reduced in this species during the first breeding season following the eruption. Based on our detailed demographic records for C. sociabilis, neither survival of yearling females from 2010 to 2011 nor the percentage of unmarked females in the study population in 2011 differed from pre-eruption values. Instead, the post-eruption decrease in population density for C. sociabilis appeared to reflect reduced within-population recruitment of juvenile females to the 2011 breeding population. Although the eruption did not result in the local extinction of either study population, the demographic consequences detected are likely to have impacted the effective sizes of these populations, creating important opportunities to link specific demographic parameters to previously reported decreases in genetic variability detected after this significant natural event.

Genomic data reveal a loss of diversity in two species of tuco-tucos (genus Ctenomys) following a volcanic eruption

Marked reductions in population size can trigger corresponding declines in genetic variation. Understanding the precise genetic consequences of such reductions, however, is often challenging due to the absence of robust pre- and post-reduction datasets. Here, we use heterochronous genomic data from samples obtained before and immediately after the 2011 eruption of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcanic complex in Patagonia to explore the genetic impacts of this event on two parapatric species of rodents, the colonial tuco-tuco (Ctenomys sociabilis) and the Patagonian tuco-tuco (C. haigi). Previous analyses using microsatellites revealed no post-eruption changes in genetic variation in C. haigi, but an unexpected increase in variation in C. sociabilis. To explore this outcome further, we used targeted gene capture to sequence over 2,000 putatively neutral regions for both species. Our data revealed that, contrary to the microsatellite analyses, the eruption was associated with a small but significant decrease in genetic variation in both species. We suggest that genome-level analyses provide greater power than traditional molecular markers to detect the genetic consequences of population size changes, particularly changes that are recent, short-term, or modest in size. Consequently, genomic analyses promise to generate important new insights into the effects of specific environmental events on demography and genetic variation.