Prediction of Antibiotic Resistance Evolution by Growth Measurement of All Proximal Mutants of Beta-Lactamase

Assessment of the reversibility of resistance in the absence of antibiotics and its relationship with the resistance gene's fitness cost: a genetic study with mcr-1

BACKGROUND

The intensive use of antibiotics has resulted in strong natural selection for the evolution of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), but whether, and under what circumstances, the removal of antibiotics would result in a rapid reduction in AMR has been insufficiently explored. We aimed to test the hypothesis that in the simple, yet common, case of AMR conferred by a single gene, removing antibiotics would quickly reduce the prevalence of resistance if the AMR gene imposes a high fitness cost and costless resistance is extremely rare among its proximal mutants.

METHODS

In this genetic study, to test our hypothesis, we used the mcr-1 gene in Escherichia coli, which confers resistance to the last-resort antibiotic colistin, as a model. A high-throughput reverse genetics approach was used to evaluate mcr-1 variants for their fitness cost and resistance levels relative to a non-functional construct, by measuring relative growth rates in colistin-free media and at 2 μg/mL and 4 μg/mL colistin. We identified costless resistant mcr-1 mutants, and examined their properties within the context of the sequential organisation of mcr-1's functional domains as well as the evolutionary accessibility of these mutations. Finally, a simple population genetic model incorporating the measured fitness cost was constructed and tested against previously published real-world data of mcr-1 prevalence in colonised inpatients in China since the 2017 colistin ban in fodder additives.

FINDINGS

We estimated the relative growth rates of 14 742 mcr-1 E coli variants (including the wild type), 3449 of which were single-nucleotide mutants. E coli showed 73·8% less growth per 24 h when carrying wild-type mcr-1 compared with the non-functional construct. 6252 (42·4%) of 14 741 mcr-1 mutants showed colistin resistance accompanied by significant fitness costs, when grown under 4 μg/mL colistin selection. 43 (0·3%) mcr-1 mutants exhibited costless resistance, most of which contained multiple mutations. Among the 3449 single mutants of mcr-1, 3433 (99·5%) had a fitness cost when grown in colistin-free media, with a mean relative growth of 0·305 (SD 0·193) compared with the non-functional variant. 3059 (88·7%) and 1833 (53·1%) of 3449 single mutants outgrew the non-functional mcr-1 in the presence of 2 μg/mL and 4 μg/mL colistin, respectively. Single mutations that gave rise to costless mutants were rare in all three domains of mcr-1 (transmembrane domain, flexible linker, and catalytic domain), but the linker domain was enriched with cost-reducing and resistance-enhancing mutations and depleted with cost-increasing mutations. The population genetics model based on the experimental data accurately predicts the rapid decline in mcr-1 prevalence in real-world data.

INTERPRETATION

Many identified costless resistant variants that consist of multiple mutations are unlikely to evolve easily in nature. These findings for colistin and mcr-1 might be applicable to other cases in which AMR entails a substantial fitness cost that cannot be mitigated in proximal mutants.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China, and National Key Research and Development Program of China.

The Fitness of Beta-Lactamase Mutants Depends Nonlinearly on Resistance Level at Sublethal Antibiotic Concentrations

Adaptive evolutionary processes are constrained by the availability of mutations which cause a fitness benefit and together make up the fitness landscape, which maps genotype space onto fitness under specified conditions. Experimentally derived fitness landscapes have demonstrated a predictability to evolution by identifying limited "mutational routes" that evolution by natural selection may take between low and high-fitness genotypes. However, such studies often utilize indirect measures to determine fitness. We estimated the competitive fitness of mutants relative to all single-mutation neighbors to describe the fitness landscape of three mutations in a β-lactamase enzyme. Fitness assays were performed at sublethal concentrations of the antibiotic cefotaxime in a structured and unstructured environment. In the unstructured environment, the antibiotic selected for higher-resistance types-but with an equivalent fitness for a subset of mutants, despite substantial variation in resistance-resulting in a stratified fitness landscape. In contrast, in a structured environment with a low antibiotic concentration, antibiotic-susceptible genotypes had a relative fitness advantage, which was associated with antibiotic-induced filamentation. These results cast doubt that highly resistant genotypes have a unique selective advantage in environments with subinhibitory concentrations of antibiotics and demonstrate that direct fitness measures are required for meaningful predictions of the accessibility of evolutionary routes. IMPORTANCE The evolution of antibiotic-resistant bacterial populations underpins the ongoing antibiotic resistance crisis. We aim to understand how antibiotic-degrading enzymes can evolve to cause increased resistance, how this process is constrained, and whether it can be predictable. To this end, competition experiments were performed with a combinatorially complete set of mutants of a β-lactamase gene subject to subinhibitory concentrations of the antibiotic cefotaxime. While some mutations confer on their hosts high resistance to cefotaxime, in competition these mutations do not always confer a selective advantage. Specifically, high-resistance mutants had equivalent fitnesses despite different resistance levels and even had selective disadvantages under conditions involving spatial structure. Together, our findings suggest that the relationship between resistance level and fitness at subinhibitory concentrations is complex; predicting the evolution of antibiotic resistance requires knowledge of the conditions that select for resistant genotypes and the selective advantage evolved types have over their predecessors.