Lack of impact of pre-emptive deceased-donor kidney transplantation on graft outcomes: a propensity score-based study

Preemptive kidney transplantation: why, when, and how?

Among renal replacement therapies, preemptive kidney transplantation (PKT) presents the best clinical, social, and economic results. However, it is still infrequently chosen as first therapy for patients with irreversible kidney failure. Initiatives in different parts of the world were developed to identify the reasons why PKT is still not widely used and to facilitate the access of patients with end-stage kidney disease to the advantages associated with it. This article addresses the main advantages and difficulties of PKT and discusses when it should be indicated and how to prepare potential recipients for PKT.

Transplante renal preemptivo: por que, quando e como?

Resumo Entre as terapias renais substitutivas, o transplante renal preemptivo (TRP) apresenta os melhores resultados clínicos, sociais e econômicos. No entanto, ainda é raramente escolhido como primeira terapia para pacientes com falência renal irreversível. Foram desenvolvidas iniciativas em diferentes partes do mundo para identificar as razões pelas quais o TRP ainda não é amplamente utilizado e para facilitar o acesso de pacientes com doença renal em estágio terminal às vantagens associadas ao mesmo. Este artigo aborda as principais vantagens e dificuldades do TRP e discute quando ele deve ser indicado e como preparar potenciais receptores para o TRP.

Comparing the Net Benefits of Adult Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation for a Patient on the Preemptive Waiting List vs a Patient Receiving Dialysis

IMPORTANCE

Preemptive kidney transplantation is the preferred treatment for end-stage kidney disease. However, deceased donor (DD) kidneys are limited, and the net benefit of allocating kidneys to a preemptively waitlisted patient rather than to a patient receiving dialysis is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the net benefit and costs of allocating kidneys to preemptively waitlisted patients vs those receiving dialysis.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This medical decision analytical model used data from the 2020 US Renal Data System to calculate patient survival among waitlisted patients who received a DD kidney transplant. Four patients were simulated, with similar characteristics: (1) a patient on the preemptive waiting list receiving a DD transplant, (2) a patient on the preemptive waiting list never receiving a transplant, (3) a waitlisted patient already receiving dialysis (dialysis vintage <1 year) receiving a transplant, and (4) a waitlisted patient already receiving dialysis (dialysis vintage <1 year) never receiving a transplant. Annual probability of initiating dialysis (for patients 1 and 2) and duration of dialysis (for patients 3 and 4) were varied in sensitivity analyses.

EXPOSURES

Allocating a DD kidney to a patient on the preemptive waiting list vs the same kidney to a patient receiving dialysis for less than 1 year, with similar recipient characteristics.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Differences in projected quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and total costs.

RESULTS

In a simulated patient with a mean start age of 50 years (range, 30-64 years), the patient receiving a preemptive DD transplantation experienced 10.58 (95% CI, 10.36-10.80) QALYs, and the patient on the preemptive waiting list never transplanted experienced 6.83 (95% CI, 6.67-6.99) QALYs. The patient receiving DD transplantation after less than 1 year of dialysis experienced 10.33 (95% CI, 10.21-10.55) QALYs, and the patient receiving dialysis who remained on the waiting list experienced 6.20 (95% CI, 6.04-6.36) QALYs; allocating a DD kidney to the preemptive patient added 3.75 (95% CI, 3.57-3.93) QALYs, whereas allocating the kidney to the patient already receiving dialysis added 4.13 (95% CI, 3.92-4.31) QALYs. While the estimated posttransplant survival was longest for the preemptive transplant recipient, preferentially allocating the kidney to the preemptive patient results in 0.39 (95% CI, 0.49-0.29) fewer QALYs. The net cost of preemptive transplantation was $54 100 (95% CI, $44 100-$64 100) more than transplantation to a waitlisted patient. If the rate of transitioning to dialysis was 20 (rather than 33) events per 100 patient waiting list-years, the net QALYs were -0.67 (95% CI, -0.78 to -0.56). If the patient was receiving dialysis for 3 to 4 years (vs <1 year) the net benefit was not significantly different; however, net costs were considerably higher for the preemptive option.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this decision analytic model study, although allocating DD kidneys to patients preemptively was the best option from a patient perspective, allocating DD kidneys to patients receiving dialysis was a better use of a scare resource from a societal perspective.