Assessment of prognostic scores in brain metastases from breast cancer

Prediction of Short and Long Survival after Surgery for Breast Cancer Brain Metastases

Background: Brain metastases requiring surgical treatment determine the prognosis of patients with breast cancer. We aimed to develop the scores for the prediction of short (<6 months) and long (≥3 years) survival after BCBM surgery. Methods: Female patients with BCBM surgery between 2008 and 2019 were included. The new scores were constructed upon independent predictors for short and long postoperative survival. Results: In the final cohort (n = 95), 18 (18.9%) and 22 (23.2%) patients experienced short and long postoperative survival, respectively. Breast-preserving surgery, presence of multiple brain metastases and age ≥ 65 years at breast cancer diagnosis were identified as independent predictors of short postoperative survival. In turn, positive HER2 receptor status in brain metastases, time interval ≥ 3 years between breast cancer and brain metastases diagnosis and KPS ≥ 90% independently predicted long survival. The appropriate short and long survival scores showed higher diagnostic accuracy for the prediction of short (AUC = 0.773) and long (AUC = 0.775) survival than the breast Graded Prognostic Assessment score (AUC = 0.498/0.615). A cumulative survival score (total score) showed significant association with overall survival (p = 0.001). Conclusion: We identified predictors independently impacting the prognosis after BCBM surgery. After external validation, the presented scores might become useful tools for the selection of proper candidates for BCBM surgery.

The Usefulness of Prognostic Tools in Breast Cancer Patients with Brain Metastases

Simple Summary

Due to the variability of an individual’s prognosis and the variety of treatment options available to breast cancer (BC) patients with brain metastases (BM), establishing the proper therapy is challenging. Since 1997, several prognostic tools for BC patients with BM have been proposed with variable precision in determining the overall survival. The majority of prognostic tools include the performance status, the age at BM diagnosis, the number of BM, the primary tumor phenotype/genotype and the extracranial metastases status as an outcome of systemic therapy efficacy. It is necessary to update the prognostic indices used by physicians as advances in local and systemic treatments develop and change the parameters of survival. Free access to prognostic tools online may increase their routine adoption in clinical practice. Clinical trials on BC patients with BM remains a broad field for the application of prognostic tools.

Abstract

Background: Determining the proper therapy is challenging in breast cancer (BC) patients with brain metastases (BM) due to the variability of an individual’s prognosis and the variety of treatment options available. Several prognostic tools for BC patients with BM have been proposed. Our review summarizes the current knowledge on this topic. Methods: We searched PubMed for prognostic tools concerning BC patients with BM, published from January 1997 (since the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group developed) to December 2021. Our criteria were limited to adults with newly diagnosed BM regardless of the presence or absence of any leptomeningeal metastases. Results: 31 prognostic tools were selected: 13 analyzed mixed cohorts with some BC cases and 18 exclusively analyzed BC prognostic tools. The majority of prognostic tools in BC patients with BM included: the performance status, the age at BM diagnosis, the number of BM (rarely the volume), the primary tumor phenotype/genotype and the extracranial metastasis status as a result of systemic therapy. The prognostic tools differed in their specific cut-off values. Conclusion: Prognostic tools have variable precision in determining the survival of BC patients with BM. Advances in local and systemic treatment significantly affect survival, therefore, it is necessary to update the survival indices used depending on the type and period of treatment.

NCCBM, a Nomogram Prognostic Model in Breast Cancer Patients With Brain Metastasis

Purpose: Nomogram prognostic models could greatly facilitate risk stratification and treatment strategies for cancer patients. We developed and validated a new nomogram prognostic model, named NCCBM, for breast cancer patients with brain metastasis (BCBM) using a large BCBM cohort from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database. Patients and Methods: Clinical data for 975 patients diagnosed from 2011 to 2014 were used to develop the nomogram prognostic model. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The results were validated using an independent cohort of 542 BCBM patients diagnosed from 2014 to 2015. Results: The following variables were selected in the final prognostic model: age, race, surgery, radiation therapy, chemotherapy, laterality, grade, molecular subtype, and extracranial metastatic sites. The C-index for the model described here was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.71). The calibration curve for probability of survival showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. The model was validated in an independent validation cohort with a C-index of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.73). Conclusion: We developed and validated a nomogram prognostic model for BCBM patients, and the proposed nomogram resulted in good performance.

Predicting Prognosis of Breast Cancer Patients with Brain Metastases in the BMBC Registry-Comparison of Three Different GPA Prognostic Scores

Simple Summary

The incidence of brain metastases from breast cancer is increasing and the treatment is still a major challenge. Several scores have been developed in order to estimate the prognosis of patients with brain metastases by objective criteria. Here, we validated all three published graded-prognostic-assessment (GPA)-scores in a subcohort of 882 breast cancer patients with brain metastases in the Brain Metastases in the German Breast Cancer (BMBC) registry. Although all three available GPA-scores were associated with OS, they all show limitations mainly in predicting short-term (below 3 months) survival but also in long-term (above 12 months) survival. We discuss the test performances of all scores in our work and provide evidence how physicians should use them as a tool to select patients for different treatment options.

Abstract

Several scores have been developed in order to estimate the prognosis of patients with brain metastases (BM) by objective criteria. The aim of this analysis was to validate all three published graded-prognostic-assessment (GPA)-scores in a subcohort of 882 breast cancer (BC) patients with BM in the Brain Metastases in the German Breast Cancer (BMBC) registry. The median age at diagnosis of BM was 57 years. All in all, 22.3% of patients (n = 197) had triple-negative, 33.4% (n = 295) luminal A like, 25.1% (n = 221) luminal B/HER2-enriched like and 19.2% (n = 169) HER2 positive like BC. Age ≥60 years, evidence of extracranial metastases (ECM), higher number of BM, triple-negative subtype and low Karnofsky-Performance-Status (KPS) were all associated with worse overall survival (OS) in univariate analysis (p < 0.001 each). All three GPA-scores were associated with OS. The breast-GPA showed the highest probability of classifying patients with survival above 12 months in the best prognostic group (specificity 68.7% compared with 48.1% for the updated breast-GPA and 21.8% for the original GPA). Sensitivities for predicting 3 months survival were very low for all scores. In this analysis, all GPA-scores showed only moderate diagnostic accuracy in predicting the OS of BC patients with BM.

Expansion of the LabBM Score: Is the LabPS the Best Tool Predicting Survival in Patients With Brain Metastases?

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study were to improve the 3-tiered, purely biomarker-based LabBM score, which predicts the survival of patients with brain metastases, by adding the well-established prognostic factor performance status (PS), and to define its role in comparison with the recently proposed Extracranial-Graded Prognostic Assessment score, which is based on the well-known Diagnosis-specific Graded Prognostic Assessment and 2 of the same biomarkers.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective single-institution analysis of 212 patients, managed with upfront brain irradiation. Survival was stratified by LabBM and LabPS score. Each included serum hemoglobin, platelets, albumin, C-reactive protein, and lactate dehydrogenase (plus PS for the LabPS). Zero, 0.5, or 1 point was assigned and the final point sum calculated. A higher point sum indicates shorter survival.

RESULTS

The new LabPS score predicted overall survival very well (median: 12.1 to 0.7 mo, 1-y rate: 52% to 0%), P=0.0001. However, the group with the poorest prognosis (3 or 3.5 points) was very small (4%). Most patients with comparably short survival had a lower point sum. The LabPS score failed to outperform the recently proposed Extracranial-Graded Prognostic Assessment score.

CONCLUSIONS

Integration of blood biomarkers should be considered when attempting to develop improved scores. Additional research is needed to improve the tools which predict short survival, because many of these patients continue to go undetected with all available scores.

Practical consensus recommendations on Her2 +ve breast cancer with solitary brain mets

Breast cancer is a common cause of brain metastases, with metastases occurring in at least 10-16% of patients. Longer survival of patients with metastatic breast cancer and the use of better imaging techniques are associated with an increased incidence of brain metastases. Current therapies include surgery, whole-brain radiation therapy, stereotactic radiosurgery, chemotherapy and targeted therapies. However, the timing and appropriate use of these therapies is controversial and careful patient selection by using available prognostic tools is extremely important. Expert oncologist discussed on the mode of treatment to extend the OS and improve the quality of life ofHER2-positivebreast cancer patients with Solitary brain metastases. This expert group used data from published literature, practical experience and opinion of a large group of academic oncologists to arrive at this practical consensus recommendations for the benefit of community oncologists.

Risk factors for breast cancer brain metastases: a systematic review

Background: Brain metastasis (BM) is an increasingly common and devastating complication of breast cancer (BC).

Methods: A systematic literature search of EMBASE and MEDLINE was conducted to elucidate the current state of knowledge on known and novel prognostic factors associated with 1) the risk for BCBM and 2) the time to brain metastases (TTBM).

Results: A total of 96 studies involving institutional records from 28 countries were identified. Of these, 69 studies reported risk factors of BCBM, 46 factors associated with the TTBM and twenty studies examined variables for both outcomes. Young age, estrogen receptor negativity (ER-), overexpression of human epidermal factor (HER2+), and higher presenting stage, histological grade, tumor size, Ki67 labeling index and nodal involvement were consistently found to be independent risk factors of BCBM. Of these, triple-negative BC (TNBC) subtype, ER-, higher presenting histological grade, tumor size, and nodal involvement were also reported to associate with shorter TTBM. In contrast, young age, hormone receptor negative (HR-) status, higher presenting stage, nodal involvement and development of liver metastasis were the most important risk factors for BM in HER2-positive patients.

Conclusions: The study provides a comprehensive and individual evaluation of the risk factors that could support the design of screening tools and interventional trials for early detection of BCBM.

The prognostic factors influencing overall survival in uterine cervical cancer with brain metastasis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The occurrence of brain metastasis (BM) has increased due to improved overall survival (OS) in uterine cervical cancer. However, research about prognostic factors and therapeutic guidelines for BM in uterine cervical cancer remains scarce due to the rarity of BM in this type of cancer. The present study evaluated the clinical characteristics and prognostic factors influencing OS in patients with BM from uterine cervical cancer.

METHODS

A total of 19 BM patients of uterine cervical cancer were analyzed retrospectively from January 1995 to December 2016.

RESULTS

The median and mean OS of all patients was 9.6 and 15.4 months. Treatment (vs. palliative care, p < 0.001), fewer than three regimens of chemotherapy before BM (vs. ≥ 3, p < 0.013), and chemotherapy after BM (vs. absence, p < 0.001) significantly increased the OS time. The Karnofsky performance status ≥ 70 (vs. < 70, p = 0.213), single BM (vs. multiple BM, p = 0.157), and small cell carcinoma (vs. others, p = 0.351) had numerically higher OS than others. Dual therapy (vs. single therapy, p = 0.182; vs. no therapy, p = 0.076) were associated with a longer OS time, but the difference did not reach statistical significance. In addition, the graded prognostic assessment (GPA) appeared to be a better prognostic tool than the recursive partitioning analysis.

CONCLUSION

The results of the present study suggest active multimodal treatment including neurosurgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy for BM of uterine cervical cancer with single BM, good performance status, histology of small cell carcinoma, and a better GPA.

Clinical prognostic factors associated with survival and a survival score for patients with brain metastases

Aim: To identify prognostic factors of survival in patients with brain metastases (BM) and to devise a prognostic score. Patients & methods: In this single-institution retrospective study, we analyzed potential clinical prognostic factors in 1363 patients with BM. Based on the Cox proportional hazard model, we devised a BM score with three classes (score <5, 5-6 and >6). Results: The 1-year overall survival (OS) was 26%. Independent prognostic factors of OS were: age, gender, Karnofski performance status, number of BM, control of primary, presence of extracerebral metastases and type of primary tumor. The 1-year OS was 56% for score <5; 21% for score 5-6 and 4% for score >6 (p < 0.01). Conclusion: The BM score we propose is effective in grouping patients according to their prognosis and can help decision making regarding treatment adjustments.

Breast cancer patients with brain metastases or leptomeningeal disease: 10-year results of a national cohort with validation of prognostic indexes

Development of brain metastasis (BM) and leptomeningeal (LM) disease in breast cancer (BC) patients indicates poor prognosis and impairs patients' quality of life. Prognostic survival scores for BM can help predict expected survival in order to choose the most appropriate treatment. The aim of our study was to analyze national data for BC patients treated with radiation therapy for BM/LM disease and validate the applicability of different survival prognostic scores. We retrospectively evaluated medical records of 423 BC patients with BM/LM disease receiving radiation therapy between April 2005 and December 2015. Patients were classified by BC Recursive Partitioning Analysis (B-RPA), Breast Graded Prognostic Assessment (Breast-GPA), Modified Breast Graded Prognostic Assessment (MB-GPA), and Simple Survival score for patients with BM from BC (SS-BM). Overall survival (OS) was calculated from the development of BM/LM disease to death or last follow-up date. After a median follow-up of 7.5 years, the median OS was 6.9 months (95% CI 5.5-7.8, range 0-146.4) and 1- and 2-year survival rates were 35% and 17%, respectively. Survival analysis showed significant differences in median OS regarding biologic subtypes (P < 0.0001), as follows: 3.2 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.5-3.9), 3.9 (95% CI 2.3-5.6), 7.1 (95% CI 4.3-9.8), 12.1 (95% CI 8.3-15.9), and 15.4 (95% CI 8.8-22.1) months for primary triple-negative BC (TNBC), Luminal B HER2-negative, Luminal A, HER2-enriched, and Luminal B HER2-positive tumors, respectively. Good Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), single metastasis, and absence of LM or extracranial disease all demonstrated better OS in univariate and multivariate analysis. All four employed prognostic indexes provided good prognostic value in predicting survival. SS-BM and MB-GPA showed the best discriminating ability (Concordance indexes C were 0.768 and 0.738, respectively). This study presents one of the largest single-institution series validating prognostic scores for BC patients with BM/LM. SS-BM and MB-GPA proved to be useful tools in the clinical decision-making process.

Nomogram-Predicted Survival of Breast Cancer Brain Metastasis: a SEER-Based Population Study

OBJECTIVE

The prognosis of patients with breast cancer brain metastasis (BCBM) was dismal and the prognoses varied according to different prognostic factors. In this study, we used the SEER (Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results) database to identify prognostic factors with the BCBMs.

METHODS

We identified and built a robust prognostic model and developed reliable nomograms to estimate the individualized overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) of patients with BCBM. A total of 789 patients with newly diagnosed BCBM were identified from the SEER database and randomly divided into training (n = 554) and testing (n = 235) cohorts. The log-rank tests and the Cox proportional hazards model were applied to evaluate the prognostic effects of multiple clinicopathologic variables on the survival of training cohorts. Significant prognostic factors were combined to build the nomograms that were evaluated using the concordance index and calibration plots for internal and external validations.

RESULTS

Two nomograms shared the common prognostic indicators including age, tumor subtype, chemotherapy, surgery, number of metastatic sites except the brain, and median household income. In the training cohort, the Harrell concordance index for the constructed nomogram to predict OS and BCSS was 0.668 and 0.676, respectively. The calibration plots were consistent between nomogram-predicted survival probability and actual survival probability. These results were reproducible when nomograms were applied to the testing cohort for external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

Nomograms that predicted 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year OS and BCSS for patients with newly diagnosed BCBM with satisfactory performance were constructed to help physicians in evaluating the high risk of mortality in patients.

A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with breast cancer brain metastasis

Brain metastasis (BM) is common in patients with breast cancer. Predicting patient survival is critical for the clinical management of breast cancer brain metastasis (BCBM). The present study was designed to develop and evaluate a prognostic model for patients with newly diagnosed BCBM. Based on the clinical data of patients with BCBM treated in the Affiliated Hospital of Academy of Military Medical Sciences (Beijing, China) between 2002 and 2014, a nomogram was developed to predict survival using proportional hazards regression analysis. The model was validated internally by bootstrapping, and the concordance index (c-index) was calculated. A calibration curve and c-index were used to evaluate discriminatory and predictive ability, in order to compare the nomogram with widely used models, including recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), graded prognostic assessment (GPA) and breast-graded prognostic assessment (Breast-GPA). A total of 411 patients with BCBM were included in the development of this predictive model. The median overall survival time was 14.1 months. Statistically significant predictors for patient survival included biological subtype, Karnofsky performance score, leptomeningeal metastasis, extracranial metastasis, the number of brain metastases and disease-free survival. A nomogram for predicting 1- and 2-year overall survival rates was constructed, which exhibited good accuracy in predicting overall survival with a concordance index of 0.735. This model outperformed RPA, GPA and Breast-GPA, based on the comparisons of the c-indexes. The nomogram constructed based on a multiple factor analysis was able to more accurately predict the individual survival probability of patients with BCBM, compared with existing models.

Management of breast cancer brain metastases: Focus on human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive breast cancer

After the introduction of trastuzumab, a monoclonal antibody that binds to human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), the overall survival (OS) among patients with HER2-positive breast cancer has been substantially improved. However, among these patients, the incidence of brain metastases (BM) has been increasing and an increased proportion of them have died of intracranial progression, which makes HER2-positive breast cancer brain metastases (BCBM) a critical issue of concern. For local control of limited BM, stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) and surgical resection are available modalities with different clinical indications. Postoperative or preoperative radiation is usually delivered in conjunction with surgical resection to boost local control. Adjuvant whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) should be deferred for limited BM because of its impairment of neurocognitive function while having no benefit for OS. Although WBRT is still the standard treatment for local control of diffuse BM, SRS is a promising treatment for diffuse BM as the technique continues to improve. Although large molecules have difficulty crossing the blood brain barrier, trastuzumab-containing regimens are critical for treating HER2-positive BCBM patients because they significantly prolong OS. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors are more capable of crossing into the brain and they have been shown to be beneficial for treating BM in HER2-positive patients, especially lapatinib combined with capecitabine. The antiangiogenic agent, bevacizumab, can be applied in the HER2-positive BCBM scenario as well. In this review, we also discuss several strategies for delivering drugs into the central nervous system and several microRNAs that have the potential to become biomarkers of BCBM.

Prognostic factors and survival according to tumour subtype in women presenting with breast cancer brain metastases at initial diagnosis

BACKGROUND

The presence of brain metastases at the time of initial breast cancer diagnosis (BMIBCD) is uncommon. Hence, the prognostic assessment and management of these patients is very challenging. The aim of this study was to analyse the influence of tumour subtype compared with other prognostic factors in the survival of patients with BMIBCD.

METHODS

We evaluated women with BMIBCD, reported to Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program from 2010 to 2013. Patients with other primary malignancy were excluded. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the effects of each variable on overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

We included 740 patients. Median OS for the whole population was 10 months, and 20.7% of patients were alive at 36 months. Tumour subtype distribution was: 46.6% hormone receptor (HR)+/HER2-, 17% HR+/HER2+, 14.1% HR-/HER2+ and 22.3% triple-negative. Univariate analysis showed that the presence of liver metastases, lung metastases and triple-negative patients (median OS 6 months) had worse prognosis. The HR+/HER2+ subtype had the longest OS with a median of 22 months. In multivariate analysis, older age (hazard ratio 1.8), lobular histology (hazard ratio 2.08), triple-negative subtype (hazard ratio 2.25), liver metastases (hazard ratio 1.6) and unmarried patients (hazard ratio 1.39) had significantly shorter OS.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the prognosis of patients with BMIBCD is generally poor, 20.7% were still alive 3 years after the diagnosis. There were substantial differences in OS according to tumour subtype. In addition to tumour subtype, other independent predictors of OS are age at diagnosis, marital status, histology and liver metastases.

Central nervous system involvement in breast cancer patients: Is the therapeutic landscape changing too slowly?

Central nervous system (CNS) involvement from breast cancer (BC) has been historically considered a relatively rare event. However, the development of new therapeutic strategies with a better control of extra-cranial disease and a longer overall survival (OS) has determined an increased incidence of brain metastases. Patients with HER2-positive or triple negative BC have higher occurrence of CNS involvement than patients with luminal-like disease. Moreover, after development of brain metastases, the prognosis is highly influenced by biological subtype. In patients with multiple brain metastases who experience important neurological symptoms, palliative treatment, with or without whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT), needs to be considered the first step of a multidisciplinary therapeutic approach. Patients with a good performance status and 1-3 brain lesions should be considered for radical surgery; patients technically inoperable with 4-5 metastases smaller than 3cm may undergo stereotactic radiosurgery. The role of systemic therapy in the management of patients with brain metastases is controversial. Preliminary data suggest that systemic therapy after WBRT may improve survival in BC patients with brain lesions. In patients with HER2-positive disease, several retrospective or post hoc analyses showed a longer brain progression-free survival with trastuzumab in combination with or followed by other anti-HER2 drugs (such as pertuzumab, lapatinib, and T-DM1). Until now, no new strategies or drugs are available for triple-negative and luminal-like BC.

Comparison of nine prognostic scores in patients with brain metastases of breast cancer receiving radiotherapy of the brain

PURPOSE

Several prognostic indices (PI) have been developed to stratify patients with brain metastases in groups with good or bad prognosis. The aim of our study was to compare nine prognostic scores for patients with brain metastases (BM) of breast cancer receiving radiotherapy.

METHODS

The clinical data of 139 breast cancer patients with BM were collected retrospectively. All patients were treated with cerebral radiotherapy or surgery followed by radiotherapy between January 2007 and December 2012. The prognostic value and accuracy of recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), RPA II, graded prognostic assessment (GPA), basic score for BM, Breast-RPA, Breast-GPA, Rades Score 2011, Germany Score and Breast Rades Score were assessed.

RESULTS

The median survival after BM diagnosis in our cohort was 14 months. The overall 6-month, 1-, 2- and 3-year survival rates were 49.6, 37.4, 20.9 and 13.7 %, respectively. Most of the PI were associated with OS, but univariate analysis favored GPA regarding OS. GPA was the most accurate score to identify patients with long (longer than 12 months) and Breast-GPA patients with short (<3 months) life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS

GPA and Breast-GPA seem to be the most useful scores and perform better than other PI for breast cancer patients with BM receiving radiotherapy.