Initial SARS-CoV-2 viral load is associated with disease severity: a retrospective cohort study

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in the Nasopharynx at Time of First Infection Among Unvaccinated Individuals: A Secondary Cross-Protocol Analysis of 4 Randomized Trials

Importance

SARS-CoV-2 viral load (VL) in the nasopharynx is difficult to quantify and standardize across settings, but it may inform transmission potential and disease severity.

Objective

To characterize VL at COVID-19 diagnosis among previously uninfected and unvaccinated individuals by evaluating the association of demographic and clinical characteristics, viral variant, and trial with VL, as well as the ability of VL to predict severe disease.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This secondary cross-protocol analysis used individual-level data from placebo recipients from 4 harmonized, phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials sponsored by Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax. Participants were SARS-CoV-2 negative at baseline and acquired COVID-19 during the blinded phase of the trials. The setting included the US, Brazil, South Africa, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Chile, and Mexico; start dates were July 27, 2020, to December 27, 2020; data cutoff dates were March 26, 2021, to July 30, 2021. Statistical analysis was performed from November 2022 to June 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Linear regression was used to assess the association of demographic and clinical characteristics, viral variant, and trial with polymerase chain reaction-measured log10 VL in nasal and/or nasopharyngeal swabs taken at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis.

Results

Among 1667 participants studied (886 [53.1%] male; 995 [59.7%] enrolled in the US; mean [SD] age, 46.7 [14.7] years; 204 [12.2%] aged 65 years or older; 196 [11.8%] American Indian or Alaska Native, 150 [9%] Black or African American, 1112 [66.7%] White; 762 [45.7%] Hispanic or Latino), median (IQR) log10 VL at diagnosis was 6.18 (4.66-7.12) log10 copies/mL. Participant characteristics and viral variant explained only 5.9% of the variability in VL. The independent factor with the highest observed differences was trial: Janssen participants had 0.54 log10 copies/mL lower mean VL vs Moderna participants (95% CI, 0.20 to 0.87 log10 copies/mL lower). In the Janssen study, which captured the largest number of COVID-19 events and variants and used the most intensive post-COVID surveillance, neither VL at diagnosis nor averaged over days 1 to 28 post diagnosis was associated with COVID-19 severity.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study of placebo recipients from 4 randomized phase 3 trials, high variability was observed in SARS-CoV-2 VL at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis, and only a fraction was explained by individual participant characteristics or viral variant. These results suggest challenges for future studies of interventions seeking to influence VL and elevates the importance of standardized methods for specimen collection and viral load quantitation.

Association of air pollution and weather conditions during infection course with COVID-19 case fatality rate in the United Kingdom

Although the relationship between the environmental factors, such as weather conditions and air pollution, and COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) has been found, the impacts of these factors to which infected cases are exposed at different infectious stages (e.g., virus exposure time, incubation period, and at or after symptom onset) are still unknown. Understanding this link can help reduce mortality rates. During the first wave of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom (UK), the CFR varied widely between and among the four countries of the UK, allowing such differential impacts to be assessed. We developed a generalized linear mixed-effect model combined with distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the odds ratio of the weather factors (i.e., temperature, sunlight, relative humidity, and rainfall) and air pollution (i.e., ozone, [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]) using data between March 26, 2020 and September 15, 2020 in the UK. After retrospectively time adjusted CFR was estimated using back-projection technique, the stepwise model selection method was used to choose the best model based on Akaike information criteria and the closeness between the predicted and observed values of CFR. The risk of death reached its maximum level when the low temperature (6 °C) occurred 1 day before (OR 1.59; 95% CI 1.52-1.63), prolonged sunlight duration (11-14 h) 3 days after (OR 1.24; 95% CI 1.18-1.30) and increased [Formula: see text] (19 μg/m3) 1 day after the onset of symptom (OR 1.12; 95% CI 1.09-1.16). After reopening, many COVID-19 cases will be identified after their symptoms appear. The findings highlight the importance of designing different preventive measures against severe illness or death considering the time before and after symptom onset.

Pregnancy-induced differential expression of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza a viral entry factors in the lower respiratory tract

Despite differences in the clinical presentation of coronavirus disease-19 and pandemic influenza in pregnancy, fundamental mechanistic insights are currently lacking because of the difficulty in recruiting critically ill pregnant subjects for research studies. Therefore, to better understand host-pathogen interaction during pregnancy, we performed a series of foundational experiments in pregnant rats at term gestation to assess the expression of host entry factors for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and influenza A virus (IAV) and genes associated with innate immune response in the lower respiratory tract. We report that pregnancy is characterized by a decrease in host factors mediating SARS-CoV-2 entry and an increase in host factors mediating IAV entry. Furthermore, using flow cytometric assessment of immune cell populations and immune provocation studies, we show an increased prevalence of plasmacytoid dendritic cells and a Type I interferon-biased environment in the lower respiratory tract of pregnancy, contrary to the expected immunological indolence. Our findings, therefore, suggest that the dissimilar clinical presentation of COVID-19 and pandemic influenza A in pregnancy could partly be due to differences in the extent of innate immune activation from altered viral tropism and indicate the need for comparative mechanistic investigations with live virus studies.

Ultrastructural Changes in Autopsy Tissues of COVID-19 Patients

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in substantial morbidity and mortality across the world. The prognosis was found to be poor in patients with co-morbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, interstitial lung disease, etc. Although biochemical studies were done in patient samples, no study has been reported from the Indian subcontinent about ultrastructural changes in the vital organs of COVID-19 patients. The present study was, therefore, conducted to understand the ultrastructural changes in the lung, liver, and brain of the deceased patients.

METHODS

The present study was conducted on samples obtained from reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-positive patients who were admitted to a tertiary care hospital in Western India. Core needle biopsies were done in eight fatal cases of COVID-19. The samples were taken from the lungs, liver, and brain and subjected to light microscopy, immunohistochemistry (IHC), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Clinical details and biochemical findings were also collected.  Results: The study participants included seven males and one female. The presenting complaints included fever, breathlessness, and cough. Light microscopy revealed diffuse alveolar damage in the lungs. Further, a positive expression of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein was observed in the pulmonary parenchyma of five patients. Also, the TEM microphotograph showed viral particles of size up to 80nm localized in alveolar epithelial cells. However, no viral particles were found in liver or brain samples. In the liver, macrovesicular steatosis and centrizonal congestion with loss of hepatocytes were observed in light microscopy.

CONCLUSION

 This is the first study in the Indian population showing the in-situ presence of viral particles in core biopsies from fatal cases of COVID-19. As evident from the results, histology and ultrastructural changes in the lung correlated with the presence of viral particles. The study revealed a positive correlation between the damage in the lungs and the presence of viral particles.