Winter excess morbidity: is it a summer phenomenon?

Local health and social care responses to implementing the national cold weather plan

Background

The Cold Weather Plan (CWP) for England was launched by the Department of Health in 2011 to prevent avoidable harm to health by cold weather by enabling individuals to prepare and respond appropriately. This study sought the views of local decision makers involved in the implementation of the CWP in the winter of 2012/13 to establish the effects of the CWP on local planning. It was part of a multi-component independent evaluation of the CWP.

Methods

Ten LA areas were purposively sampled which varied in level of deprivation and urbanism. Fifty-two semi-structured interviews were held with health and social care managers involved in local planning between November 2012 and May 2013.

Results

Thematic analysis revealed that the CWP was considered a useful framework to formalize working arrangements between agencies though local leadership varied across localities. There were difficulties in engaging general practitioners, differences in defining vulnerable individuals and a lack of performance monitoring mechanisms.

Conclusions

The CWP was welcomed by local health and social care managers, and improved proactive winter preparedness. Areas for improvement include better integration with general practice, and targeting resources at socially isolated individuals in cold homes with specific interventions aimed at reducing social isolation and building community resilience.

The experience of potentially vulnerable people during cold weather: implications for policy and practice

OBJECTIVES

To examine the experience of potentially vulnerable people during cold weather to inform interventions aimed at improving well-being.

STUDY DESIGN

Qualitative study.

METHODS

Telephone interviews with 35 individuals who could be considered to be potentially vulnerable during cold weather. Individuals were interviewed on two occasions during the winter of 2012-13, one or two days after a level 3 cold weather alert, as defined by the Cold Weather Plan for England, had been issued.

RESULTS

Participants were largely unaware of the health risks associated with low temperatures, especially cardiovascular risk. There was a clear distinction between the thermal experience of people in social housing, which was newer, had efficient heating, was well insulated and well-maintained, and owner occupiers living in older, harder to heat homes. Most participants relied on public transport, and many faced arduous journeys to reach basic facilities. Vulnerability to cold was mediated to a significant extent by practical social support from family members.

CONCLUSIONS

Resources should be targeted at people in hard to heat homes and those that are socially isolated. The repertoire of initiatives aimed at reducing cold-related mortality and morbidity could usefully be augmented by efforts to reduce social isolation and build community resilience.

Socioeconomic and behavioural risk factors for adverse winter health and social outcomes in economically developed countries: a systematic review of quantitative observational studies

BACKGROUND

Mortality and morbidity rates are often highest during the winter period, particularly in countries with milder climates. A growing body of research has identified potential socioeconomic, housing and behavioural mediators of cold weather-related adverse health and social outcomes, but an inclusive systematic review of this literature has yet to be performed.

METHODS

A systematic review, with narrative synthesis, of observational research published in English between 2001 and 2011, which quantified associations between socioeconomic, housing or behavioural factors and cold weather-related adverse health or social outcomes.

RESULTS

Thirty-three studies met the inclusion criteria. Average study quality was not high. Most studies failed to control for all relevant confounding factors, or to conduct research over a long enough period to ascertain causality. Low income, housing conditions and composite fuel poverty measures were most consistently associated with cold weather-related adverse health or social outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This review identified socioeconomic, housing and behavioural factors associated with a range of cold weather-related adverse health or social outcomes. Only tentative conclusions can be drawn due to the limitations of existing research. More robust studies are needed to address the methodological issues identified and uncover causal associations. A review of qualitative and intervention studies would help to inform policies to reduce the adverse health and social impacts of cold weather.

Increased winter mortality: the effect of season, temperature and deprivation in the acutely ill medical patient

BACKGROUND

Studies examining seasonal mortality have found excess winter mortality, particularly in the elderly. We examined the seasonal mortality variations for all emergency medical admissions to St James' Hospital, Dublin, over 10 years (2002-2011). We explored the effects of ambient temperature, deprivation markers, case-mix, co-morbidity and illness severity on seasonal mortality.

METHODS

All emergency admissions to an acute hospital were categorised by season. We examined season as a predictor of 30-day hospital mortality.

RESULTS

30-day in-hospital mortality was lowest in autumn (7.5%) and highest in winter (9.6%). Winter admission had 17% (p=0.009) increased unadjusted risk of a death by day 30 (OR 1.17: 95% CI 1.07, 1.28). A clinical classification system identified that chronic obstructive disease, pneumonia, epilepsy/seizures and congestive heart failure had more presentations in the winter. Multivariate analysis found that winter was not an independent predictor (OR 1.08: 95% CI 0.97, 1.19). Predictors including illness severity and the Charlson Index accounted for the increased risk of winter admission. The minimum daily temperature independently predicted outcome; there was a 20% increased in-hospital death rate when it was colder (OR 1.20: 95% CI 1.09, 1.33; p<0.001). Deprivation was a univariate and multivariate (OR 1.22 95%CI 1.07, 1.39; p=0.002) predictor of mortality, but did not show marked seasonal variation.

CONCLUSION

Patients admitted in the winter have an approximate 17% increased risk of an in-hospital death by 30 days; this is related to cold along with increased illness severity and co-morbidity burden. The disease profile is different with winter admissions.

Challenge to long term care for the elderly: cold weather impacts institutional population more than community-dwelling population

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether cold weather affects the institutional population more than the community-dwelling population in terms of morbidity requiring hospital admission.

METHODS

Residence-based hospital discharge data were used to compile excess winter hospitalization (EWH) index for the older population (aged 65 years and above) living in institutions (residential care home for the elderly [RCHE] population) and the community-dwelling elderly population in Hong Kong. To separate the influence of influenza on the cold-related hospital admissions, episodes because of influenza were excluded from this study.

RESULTS

In 2009, the EWH index for the RCHE population was 22.93% (95% CI: 20.80%-25.09%), which was much higher than that for the community-dwelling population (14.09%, 95% CI: 13.11%-15.08%). The EWH index was higher among RCHE population compared with community-dwelling population across different age groups and sex (paired t-test one-tailed P= .014).

CONCLUSION

The institutional elderly population was more vulnerable to the risk of excess hospitalization in winter. There may be room for improvement in the living environment of institutions, in particular the ambient temperature and personal care, to reduce hospital admissions. Given the expanding institutional population, the limited hospital beds, and long waiting queue for accident and emergency services, prevention of cold-related hospitalization would help to reduce the medical care burden.

Excess winter morbidity and mortality: do housing and socio-economic status have an effect?

OBJECTIVE

To review the published research evidence on the links between excess winter mortality (EWM) or excess winter hospitalization (EWH) and housing quality or socioeconomic status (SES).

DESIGN

Systematic review.

CRITERIA

Linked data on EWM or EWH and potential associations with housing quality or SES.

RESULTS

No consistent relations between SES and EWM or EWH. The results for housing quality are also inconsistent, with some studies showing a weak protective effect of home heating.

CONCLUSION

Studies to date do not provide good evidence that housing quality or SES factors affect EWM and EWH. More research is needed, particularly studies using individual level housing and SES data. Controlled trials of interventions would be desirable.