A Bayesian analysis of uncertainties on lung doses resulting from occupational exposures to uranium

Parameter uncertainty analysis of the equivalent lung dose coefficient for the intake of radon in mines: A review

Radon presents significant health risks due to its short-lived progeny. The evaluation of the equivalent lung dose coefficient is crucial for assessing the potential health effects of radon exposure. This review focuses on the uncertainty analysis of the parameters associated with the calculation of the equivalent lung dose coefficient attributed to radon inhalation in mines. This analysis is complex due to various factors, such as geological conditions, ventilation rates, and occupational practices. The literature review systematically examines the sources of radon and its health effects among underground miners. It also discusses the human respiratory tract model used to calculate the equivalent lung dose coefficient and the associated parameters leading to uncertainties in the calculated lung dose. Additionally, the review covers the different methodologies employed for uncertainty quantification and their implications on dose assessment. The text discusses challenges and limitations in current research practices and provides recommendations for future studies. Accurate risk assessment and effective safety measures in mining environments require understanding and mitigating parameter uncertainties.

A Stochastic Model Approach for Copper Heap Leaching through Bayesian Networks

Multivariate analytical models are quite successful in explaining one or more response variables, based on one or more independent variables. However, they do not reflect the connections of conditional dependence between the variables that explain the model. Otherwise, due to their qualitative and quantitative nature, Bayesian networks allow us to easily visualize the probabilistic relationships between variables of interest, as well as make inferences as a prediction of specific evidence (partial or impartial), diagnosis and decision-making. The current work develops stochastic modeling of the leaching phase in piles by generating a Bayesian network that describes the ore recovery with independent variables, after analyzing the uncertainty of the response to the sensitization of the input variables. These models allow us to recognize the relations of dependence and causality between the sampled variables and can estimate the output against the lack of evidence. The network setting shows that the variables that have the most significant impact on recovery are the time, the heap height and the superficial velocity of the leaching flow, while the validation is given by the low measurements of the error statistics and the normality test of residuals. Finally, probabilistic networks are unique tools to determine and internalize the risk or uncertainty present in the input variables, due to their ability to generate estimates of recovery based upon partial knowledge of the operational variables.

The Importance and Quantification of Plutonium Binding in Human Lungs

Epidemiological studies have shown that the main risk arising from exposure to plutonium aerosols is lung cancer, with other detrimental effects in the bone and liver. A realistic assessment of these risks, in turn, depends on the accuracy of the dosimetric models used to calculate doses in such studies. A state-of-the-art biokinetic model for plutonium, based on the current International Commission on Radiological Protection biokinetic model, has been developed for this purpose in an epidemiological study involving the plutonium exposure of Mayak workers in Ozersk, Russia. One important consequence of this model is that the lung dose is extremely sensitive to the fraction (fb) of plutonium, which becomes bound to lung tissue after it dissolves. It has been shown that if just 1% of the material becomes bound in the bronchial region, this will double the lung dose. Furthermore, fb is very difficult to quantify from experimental measurements. This paper summarizes the work carried out thus far to quantify fb. Bayesian techniques have been used to analyze data from different sources, including both humans and dogs, and the results suggest a small, but nonzero, fraction of < 1%. A Bayesian analysis of 20 Mayak workers exposed to plutonium nitrate suggests an fb between 0 and 0.3%. Based on this work, the International Commission on Radiological Protection is currently considering the adoption of a value of 0.2% for the default bound fraction for all actinides in its forthcoming recommendations on internal dosimetry. In an attempt to corroborate these findings, further experimental work has been carried out by the US Transuranium and Uranium Registries. This work has involved direct measurements of plutonium in the respiratory tract tissues of workers who have been exposed to soluble plutonium nitrate. Without binding, one would not expect to see any activity remaining in the lungs at long times after exposure since it would have been cleared by the natural process of mucociliary clearance. Further supportive study of workers exposed to plutonium oxide is planned. This paper ascertains the extent to which these results corroborate previous inferences concerning the bound fraction.

Uranium(VI) Complexes with a Calix[4]arene-Based 8-Hydroxyquinoline Ligand: Thermodynamic and Structural Characterization Based on Calorimetry, Spectroscopy, and Liquid-Liquid Extraction

The environmental aspects of ore processing and waste treatment call for an optimization of applied technologies. There, understanding of the structure and complexation mechanism on a molecular scale is indispensable. Here, the complexation of UVI with a calix[4]arene-based 8-hydroxyquinoline ligand was investigated by applying a wide range of complementary methods. In solution, the formation of two complex species was proven with stability constants of log ß1:1=5.94±0.02 and log ß2:1=6.33±0.01, respectively. The formation of the 1:1 complex was found to be enthalpy driven [ΔH1:1=(-71.5±10.0) kJ mol-1; TΔS1:1=(-37.57±10.0) kJ mol-1], whereas the second complexation step was found to be endothermic and entropy driven [ΔH2:1=(32.8±4.0) kJ mol-1; TΔS2:1=(68.97±4.0) kJ mol-1]. Moreover, the molecular structure of [UO2(H6L)(NO3)](NO3) (1) was determined by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. Concluding, radiotoxic UVI was separated from a EuIII-containing solution by the calix[4]arene-based ligand in solvent extractions.

The Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (MWDS-2013): A Bayesian Analysis to Quantify Pulmonary Binding of Plutonium in Lungs Using Historic Beagle Dog Data

The revised human respiratory tract model, published in Part 1 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection's (ICRP) report on Occupational Intakes of Radionuclides (OIR), includes a bound fraction, fb, to represent radionuclides that have become chemically bound in the lungs following dissolution of particulates in lung fluid. Bound radionuclides are not subject to particle transport clearance but can be absorbed to blood at a rate, sb. The occurrence of long-term binding of plutonium can greatly increase lung doses, particularly if it occurs in the bronchial and bronchiolar regions. However, there has been little evidence that currently supports the existence of a long-term bound state for plutonium. The present work describes the analysis of measurements of lung data obtained from a life span study of Beagle dogs that were exposed by inhalation to different concentrations of plutonium-239 (239Pu) nitrate aerosol at Pacific Northwest Laboratories, USA. The data have been analysed to assess whether a bound state was required to explain the data. A Bayesian approach was adopted for the analysis that accounts for uncertainties in model parameter values, including uncertainties in the rates of particle transport clearance. Furthermore, it performs the analysis using two different modelling hypotheses: a model based on the current ICRP human respiratory tract model and its treatment of alveolar particle transport clearance; and a model of particle transport clearance that is based on the updated model developed by ICRP to calculate dose coefficients for the OIR. The current model better represents clearance in dogs at early times (up to 1 year following intake) and the latter better represents retention at greater times (>5 years following intake). The results indicate that a long-term bound fraction of between 0.16 and 1.1%, with a mean value of between 0.24 and 0.8% (depending on the model) is required to explain the data.

THE MAYAK WORKER DOSIMETRY SYSTEM (MWDS-2013): TREATMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL PARAMETERS

Different dose estimates have been produced for the Mayak PA workforce over recent years (DOSES-2000, DOSES-2005, MWDS-2008). The dosimetry system MWDS-2013 described here differs from previous analyses, in that it deals directly with uncertainty in the assumed model parameters. This paper details the way in which uncertainty is dealt with within MWDS-2013 to produce the final output represented by a multiple hyper-realisation of organ doses. More specifically, the paper describes: Application of the WeLMoS method to calculate Bayesian posterior probability distributions of organ doses.Extension of the WeLMoS method for dealing with multiple intake regimes.How shared and unshared parameters are dealt with using a multiple realisation method.A practical algorithm for the generation of multiple hyper-realisations.How to deal with uncertainty in the intake and the intake regime. The resulting multiple hyper-realisation contains all of the information required to take account of model parameter uncertainty and the effects of shared and unshared parameters in any epidemiological analysis, which uses this information, although it is acknowledged that in practice, certain data simplifications may be required to make such analyses tractable, and comparable to previous analyses. Such simplifications are outside the scope of this paper.

The Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (MWDS-2013): Plutonium Binding in the Lungs-An Analysis of Mayak Workers

Estimates of plutonium lung doses from urine bioassay are highly dependent on the rate of absorption from the lungs to blood assumed for the inhaled aerosol. Absorption occurs by dissolution of particles in lung fluid followed by uptake to blood. The latter may occur either rapidly or dissolved ions may first become temporarily bound within airway tissue. The presence of long-term binding can greatly increase lung doses, particularly if it occurs in the bronchial and bronchiolar regions. Analyses of autopsy data from Beagle dogs and USTUR Case 0269, obtained following exposure to plutonium nitrate, suggest that a small fraction of 0.2-1.1 and 0.4-0.7%, respectively, of plutonium becomes permanently bound within the lungs. The present work performs a further analysis using autopsy data of former plutonium workers of the Mayak Production Association to determine values of the bound fraction that are supported by these data. The results suggest a bound fraction value of 0-0.3%. The results also indicate that the Mayak worker population median values of the particle transport clearance parameters from the alveolar-interstitial region are largely consistent with expected values, but suggest the rate from the alveolar region to the interstitium may be lower than initially thought.

The Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (Mwds-2013): Plutonium Dissolution in The Lungs-An Analysis of Mayak Workers

Lung doses resulting from inhalation of plutonium aerosols are highly dependent on the assumed rate of particle clearance, which occurs by two competing processes: (1) particle transport clearance to the alimentary tract and to the thoracic lymph nodes and (2) clearance to systemic tissues, which occurs by dissolution of particles in lung fluid followed by uptake to blood, which is a process collectively known as absorption. Unbiased and accurate estimates of the values of lung absorption parameters are required to obtain reliable estimates of lung dose, particularly those inferred from urine bioassay. Parameter values governing the rate of absorption are best estimated from data, such as autopsy measurements of plutonium in the lungs and systemic tissues, which directly relate to the exposed workers of interest. However, because the mathematical models that determine clearance from the lungs and systemic tissues are complex and consist of many parameters, estimates of model parameter values are subject to significant uncertainties. With this in mind, this paper uses a Bayesian approach to estimate one of the most important dissolution parameters: the slow rate of dissolution. This is estimated for both plutonium nitrate and plutonium oxide bearing aerosols in the lungs of former workers of the Mayak Production Association. A value of 2.6 × 10-4 d-1 is estimated for plutonium nitrates, and 4.7 × 10-5 d-1 for plutonium oxides.

THE MAYAK WORKER DOSIMETRY SYSTEM (MWDS 2013): A RE-ANALYSIS OF USTUR CASE 0269 TO DETERMINE WHETHER PLUTONIUM BINDS TO THE LUNGS

Radionuclides in ionic form can become chemically bound in the airways of the lungs following dissolution of inhaled particulates in lung fluid. The presence of long-term binding can greatly increase lung doses from inhaled plutonium, particularly if it occurs in the bronchial and bronchiolar regions. However, the only published evidence that plutonium binding occurs in humans comes from an analysis of the autopsy and bioassay data of United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries Case 0269, a plutonium worker who experienced a very high (58 kBq) acute inhalation of plutonium nitrate. This analysis suggested a bound fraction of around 8 %, inferred from an unexpectedly low ratio of estimated total thoracic lymph node activity:total lung activity, at the time of death. However, there are some limitations with this study, the most significant being that measurements of the regional distribution of plutonium activity in the lungs, which provide more direct evidence of binding, were not available when the analysis was performed. The present work describes the analysis of new data, which includes measurements of plutonium activity in the alveolar-interstitial (AI) region, bronchial (BB) and bronchiolar (bb) regions, and extra-thoracic (ET) regions, at the time of death. A Bayesian approach is used that accounts for uncertainties in model parameter values, including particle transport clearance, which were not considered in the original analysis. The results indicate that a long-term bound fraction between 0.4 and 0.7 % is required to explain this data, largely because plutonium activity is present in the extra-thoracic (ET2), bronchial and bronchiolar airways at the time of death.

Concerted Uranium Research in Europe (CURE): toward a collaborative project integrating dosimetry, epidemiology and radiobiology to study the effects of occupational uranium exposure

The potential health impacts of chronic exposures to uranium, as they occur in occupational settings, are not well characterized. Most epidemiological studies have been limited by small sample sizes, and a lack of harmonization of methods used to quantify radiation doses resulting from uranium exposure. Experimental studies have shown that uranium has biological effects, but their implications for human health are not clear. New studies that would combine the strengths of large, well-designed epidemiological datasets with those of state-of-the-art biological methods would help improve the characterization of the biological and health effects of occupational uranium exposure. The aim of the European Commission concerted action CURE (Concerted Uranium Research in Europe) was to develop protocols for such a future collaborative research project, in which dosimetry, epidemiology and biology would be integrated to better characterize the effects of occupational uranium exposure. These protocols were developed from existing European cohorts of workers exposed to uranium together with expertise in epidemiology, biology and dosimetry of CURE partner institutions. The preparatory work of CURE should allow a large scale collaborative project to be launched, in order to better characterize the effects of uranium exposure and more generally of alpha particles and low doses of ionizing radiation.

US Transuranium and Uranium Registries case study on accidental exposure to uranium hexafluoride

The United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries' (USTUR) whole-body donor (Case 1031) was exposed to an acute inhalation of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) produced from an explosion at a uranium processing plant 65 years prior to his death. The USTUR measurements of tissue samples collected at the autopsy indicated long-term retention of inhaled slightly enriched uranium material (0.85% (235)U) in the deep lungs and thoracic lymph nodes. In the present study, the authors combined the tissue measurement results with historical bioassay data, and analysed them with International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) respiratory tract models and the ICRP Publication 69 systemic model for uranium using maximum likelihood and Bayesian statistical methods. The purpose of the analysis was to estimate intakes and model parameter values that best describe the data, and evaluate their effect on dose assessment. The maximum likelihood analysis, which used the ICRP Publication 66 human respiratory tract model, resulted in a point estimate of 79 mg of uranium for the occupational intake composed of 86% soluble, type F material and 14% insoluble, type S material. For the Bayesian approach, the authors applied the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, but this time used the revised human respiratory tract model, which is currently being used by ICRP to calculate new dose coefficients for workers. The Bayesian analysis estimated that the mean uranium intake was 160 mg, and calculated the case-specific lung dissolution parameters with their associated uncertainties. The parameters were consistent with the inhaled uranium material being predominantly soluble with a small but significant insoluble component. The 95% posterior range of the rapid dissolution fraction (the fraction of deposited material that is absorbed to blood rapidly) was 0.12 to 0.91 with a median of 0.37. The remaining fraction was absorbed slowly, with a 95% range of 0.000 22 d(-1) to 0.000 36 d(-1) and a median of 0.000 31 d(-1). The effective dose per unit intake calculated using the dissolution parameters derived from the maximum likelihood and the Bayesian analyses was higher than the current ICRP dose coefficient for type F uranium by a factor of 2 or 7, respectively; the higher value of the latter was due to use of the revised respiratory tract model. The dissolution parameter values obtained here may be more appropriate to use for radiation protection purposes when individuals are exposed to a UF6 mixture that contains an insoluble uranium component.

An intake prior for the Bayesian analysis of plutonium and uranium exposures in an epidemiology study

In Bayesian inference, the initial knowledge regarding the value of a parameter, before additional data are considered, is represented as a prior probability distribution. This paper describes the derivation of a prior distribution of intake that was used for the Bayesian analysis of plutonium and uranium worker doses in a recent epidemiology study. The chosen distribution is log-normal with a geometric standard deviation of 6 and a median value that is derived for each worker based on the duration of the work history and the number of reported acute intakes. The median value is a function of the work history and a constant related to activity in air concentration, M, which is derived separately for uranium and plutonium. The value of M is based primarily on measurements of plutonium and uranium in air derived from historical personal air sampler (PAS) data. However, there is significant uncertainty on the value of M that results from paucity of PAS data and from extrapolating these measurements to actual intakes. This paper compares posterior and prior distributions of intake and investigates the sensitivity of the Bayesian analyses to the assumed value of M. It is found that varying M by a factor of 10 results in a much smaller factor of 2 variation in mean intake and lung dose for both plutonium and uranium. It is concluded that if a log-normal distribution is considered to adequately represent worker intakes, then the Bayesian posterior distribution of dose is relatively insensitive to the value assumed of M.

An assessment of the reliability of dose coefficients for intakes of radionuclides by members of the public

This paper summarises work undertaken on behalf of the Environment Agency for England to quantify uncertainties resulting from internal exposures to a number of radionuclides considered significant because of their anthropogenic origin, namely: (238)U, (226)Ra, (239)Pu, (241)Am, (137)Cs, (90)Sr, (131)I, (129)I and (3)H. Uncertainties in the biokinetic models that are used to calculate the retention and excretion of radionuclides are derived in order to calculate distributions of effective dose per unit intake following their inhalation or ingestion by members of the UK public. The central values and ranges of the distributions are used to inform the derivation of uncertainty factors (UFs) for the different dose coefficients, which can be used to assess reliability. These represent uncertainties inherent in the structures of the biokinetic models and their parameter values. The inferred UF values are typically around 2-3 for ingestion and 2-6 for inhalation for all age groups, and are comparable to UF values inferred from published studies. It is instructive to consider these ranges alongside the likely levels of exposure that are expected from the radionuclides considered (the microsievert range) and the dose limit of planned exposures for members of the public (1000 μSv).

The reliability of dose coefficients for inhalation and ingestion of uranium by members of the public

The best estimate of risk to a population group resulting from internal exposure to a particular radionuclide can be used to assess the reliability of the appropriate International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) dose coefficient (E⁵⁰) for the specified exposure pathway. An estimate of the uncertainty on the risk is important for reliability decisions. This paper describes the application of parameter uncertainty analysis to quantify uncertainties resulting from internal exposures to uranium (as (²³⁸U) by members of the public. The study derives uncertainties in biokinetic model parameter values to calculate the distributions of the effective dose per unit intake using the ICRP Publication 60 formalism. The central values and ranges of the distributions are used to infer the uncertainty on the mean effective dose per unit intake to inform the derivation of uncertainty factors (UF) for the dose coefficients. Here, a UF is a conditional probability statement that the value of the best estimate of risk per unit intake has a 95 % probability of being within a factor, UF, of the nominal risk associated with the appropriate ICRP dose coefficient, E⁵⁰, with respect to uncertainties in the biokinetic model parameter values. Ingestion: it is assumed that exposure occurs through the ingestion of uranium present in food and water. The results suggest a UF of within 3 for all age groups, with median values close to the ICRP values. Inhalation: it is assumed that environmental exposure to uranium occurs via inhalation of a mixture of chemical forms. The results suggest a UF of around 2 for inhalation of uranium by members of the public, with median values close to the ICRP values.