Nucleotide substitutions during speciation may explain substitution rate variation

Evaluating the Accuracy of Methods for Detecting Correlated Rates of Molecular and Morphological Evolution

Determining the link between genomic and phenotypic change is a fundamental goal in evolutionary biology. Insights into this link can be gained by using a phylogenetic approach to test for correlations between rates of molecular and morphological evolution. However, there has been persistent uncertainty about the relationship between these rates, partly because conflicting results have been obtained using various methods that have not been examined in detail. We carried out a simulation study to evaluate the performance of 5 statistical methods for detecting correlated rates of evolution. Our simulations explored the evolution of molecular sequences and morphological characters under a range of conditions. Of the methods tested, Bayesian relaxed-clock estimation of branch rates was able to detect correlated rates of evolution correctly in the largest number of cases. This was followed by correlations of root-to-tip distances, Bayesian model selection, independent sister-pairs contrasts, and likelihood-based model selection. As expected, the power to detect correlated rates increased with the amount of data, both in terms of tree size and number of morphological characters. Likewise, greater among-lineage rate variation in the data led to improved performance of all 5 methods, particularly for Bayesian relaxed-clock analysis when the rate model was mismatched. We then applied these methods to a data set from flowering plants and did not find evidence of a correlation in evolutionary rates between genomic data and morphological characters. The results of our study have practical implications for phylogenetic analyses of combined molecular and morphological data sets, and highlight the conditions under which the links between genomic and phenotypic rates of evolution can be evaluated quantitatively.

How Important Is Budding Speciation for Comparative Studies?

The acknowledgment of evolutionary dependence among species has fundamentally changed how we ask biological questions. Phylogenetic models became the standard approach for studies with 3 or more lineages, in particular those using extant species. Most phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) translate relatedness into covariance, meaning that evolutionary changes before lineages split should be interpreted together whereas after the split lineages are expected to change independently. This clever realization has shaped decades of research. Here, we discuss one element of the comparative method often ignored or assumed as unimportant: if nodes of a phylogeny represent the dissolution of the ancestral lineage into two new ones or if the ancestral lineage can survive speciation events (i.e., budding). Budding speciation is often reported in paleontological studies, due to the nature of the evidence for budding in the fossil record, but it is surprisingly absent in comparative methods. Here, we show that many PCMs assume that divergence happens as a symmetric split, even if these methods do not explicitly mention this assumption. We discuss the properties of trait evolution models for continuous and discrete traits and their adequacy under a scenario of budding speciation. We discuss the effects of budding speciation under a series of plausible evolutionary scenarios and show when and how these can influence our estimates. We also propose that long-lived lineages that have survived through a series of budding speciation events and given birth to multiple new lineages can produce evolutionary patterns that challenge our intuition about the most parsimonious history of trait changes in a clade. We hope our discussion can help bridge comparative approaches in paleontology and neontology as well as foster awareness about the assumptions we make when we use phylogenetic trees.

Investigating the reliability of molecular estimates of evolutionary time when substitution rates and speciation rates vary

Background

An accurate timescale of evolutionary history is essential to testing hypotheses about the influence of historical events and processes, and the timescale for evolution is increasingly derived from analysis of DNA sequences. But variation in the rate of molecular evolution complicates the inference of time from DNA. Evidence is growing for numerous factors, such as life history and habitat, that are linked both to the molecular processes of mutation and fixation and to rates of macroevolutionary diversification. However, the most widely used methods rely on idealised models of rate variation, such as the uncorrelated and autocorrelated clocks, and molecular dating methods are rarely tested against complex models of rate change. One relationship that is not accounted for in molecular dating is the potential for interaction between molecular substitution rates and speciation, a relationship that has been supported by empirical studies in a growing number of taxa. If these relationships are as widespread as current evidence suggests, they may have a significant influence on molecular dates.

Results

We simulate phylogenies and molecular sequences under three different realistic rate variation models—one in which speciation rates and substitution rates both vary but are unlinked, one in which they covary continuously and one punctuated model in which molecular change is concentrated in speciation events, using empirical case studies to parameterise realistic simulations. We test three commonly used “relaxed clock” molecular dating methods against these realistic simulations to explore the degree of error in molecular dates under each model. We find average divergence time inference errors ranging from 12% of node age for the unlinked model when reconstructed under an uncorrelated rate prior using BEAST 2, to up to 91% when sequences evolved under the punctuated model are reconstructed under an autocorrelated prior using PAML.

Conclusions

We demonstrate the potential for substantial errors in molecular dates when both speciation rates and substitution rates vary between lineages. This study highlights the need for tests of molecular dating methods against realistic models of rate variation generated from empirical parameters and known relationships.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-02015-8.