Spatial Analysis of Phytophthora infestans Genotypes and Late Blight Severity on Tomato and Potato in the Del Fuerte Valley Using Geostatistics and Geographic Information Systems

Violence in public transportation: an approach based on spatial analysis

OBJECTIVE

To carry out a spatial analysis of the occurrence of acts of violence (specifically robberies) in public transportation, identifying the regions of greater incidence, using geostatistics, and possible causes with the aid of a multicriteria analysis in the Geographic Information System.

METHODS

The unit of analysis is the traffic analysis zone of the survey named Origem-Destino, carried out in Salvador, state of Bahia, in 2013. The robberies recorded by the Department of Public Security of Bahia in 2013 were located and made compatible with the limits of the traffic analysis zones and, later, associated with the respective centroids. After determining the regions with the highest probability of robbery, we carried out a geographic analysis of the possible causes in the region with the highest robbery potential, considering the factors analyzed using a multicriteria analysis in a Geographic Information System environment.

RESULTS

The execution of the two steps of this study allowed us to identify areas corresponding to the greater probability of occurrence of robberies in public transportation. In addition, the three most vulnerable road sections (Estrada da Liberdade, Rua Pero Vaz, and Avenida General San Martin) were identified in these areas. In these sections, the factors that most contribute with the potential for robbery in buses are: F1 - proximity to places that facilitate escape, F3 - great movement of persons, and F2 - absence of policing, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Indicator Kriging (geostatistical estimation) can be used to construct a spatial probability surface, which can be a useful tool for the implementation of public policies. The multicriteria analysis in the Geographic Information System environment allowed us to understand the spatial factors related to the phenomenon under analysis.

Increased Difficulties to Control Late Blight in Tunisia Are Caused by a Genetically Diverse Phytophthora infestans Population Next to the Clonal Lineage NA-01

In Tunisia, late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans is a serious threat to potato and tomato. The Mediterranean weather conditions can be conducive to infection in all seasons and the host crops, tomato and potato, are grown year round. Potato is planted and harvested in two to four overlapping intervals from August to June and tomato is grown both in open fields and in greenhouses. The consequences of these agricultural practices and the massive import of seed potato on the genetic variation of P. infestans are largely unknown. We conducted a survey in which 165 P. infestans isolates, collected from five subregions in Tunisia between 2006 and 2008, on which we studied genotypic diversity through nuclear (simple-sequence repeat [SSR]) markers and combined this with a previous study on their mitochondrial haplotypes (mtDNA). The phylogenetic analysis revealed the presence of a major clonal lineage (NA-01, A1 mating type, mitochondrial haplotype Ia). Isolates belonging to this clonal lineage were found in all regions and showed a relatively simple virulence pattern on a potato differential set carrying different Solanum demissum resistance genes. Apart from isolates belonging to this NA-01 clonal lineage, a group of isolates was found that showed a high genetic diversity, comprising both mating types and a more complex race structure that was found in the regions where late blight on potato was more difficult to control. The population on potato and tomato seems to be under different selection pressures. Isolates collected from tomato showed a low genetic diversity even though potato isolates collected simultaneously from the same location showed a high genetic diversity. Based on the SSR profile comparison, we could demonstrate that the four major clonal lineages found in the Netherlands and also in other European countries could not be found in Tunisia. Despite the massive import of potato seed from Europe, the P. infestans population in Tunisia was found to be clearly distinct.

Epidemiological study of hazelnut bacterial blight in central Italy by using laboratory analysis and geostatistics

Incidence of Xanthomonas arboricola pv. corylina, the causal agent of hazelnut bacterial blight, was analyzed spatially in relation to the pedoclimatic factors. Hazelnut grown in twelve municipalities situated in the province of Viterbo, central Italy was studied. A consistent number of bacterial isolates were obtained from the infected tissues of hazelnut collected in three years (2010-2012). The isolates, characterized by phenotypic tests, did not show any difference among them. Spatial patterns of pedoclimatic data, analyzed by geostatistics showed a strong positive correlation of disease incidence with higher values of rainfall, thermal shock and soil nitrogen; a weak positive correlation with soil aluminium content and a strong negative correlation with the values of Mg/K ratio. No correlation of the disease incidence was found with soil pH. Disease incidence ranged from very low (<1%) to very high (almost 75%) across the orchards. Young plants (4-year old) were the most affected by the disease confirming a weak negative correlation of the disease incidence with plant age. Plant cultivars did not show any difference in susceptibility to the pathogen. Possible role of climate change on the epidemiology of the disease is discussed. Improved management practices are recommended for effective control of the disease.

Influences of climate on aflatoxin producing fungi and aflatoxin contamination

Aflatoxins are potent mycotoxins that cause developmental and immune system suppression, cancer, and death. As a result of regulations intended to reduce human exposure, crop contamination with aflatoxins causes significant economic loss for producers, marketers, and processors of diverse susceptible crops. Aflatoxin contamination occurs when specific fungi in the genus Aspergillus infect crops. Many industries frequently affected by aflatoxin contamination know from experience and anecdote that fluctuations in climate impact the extent of contamination. Climate influences contamination, in part, by direct effects on the causative fungi. As climate shifts, so do the complex communities of aflatoxin-producing fungi. This includes changes in the quantity of aflatoxin-producers in the environment and alterations to fungal community structure. Fluctuations in climate also influence predisposition of hosts to contamination by altering crop development and by affecting insects that create wounds on which aflatoxin-producers proliferate. Aflatoxin contamination is prevalent both in warm humid climates and in irrigated hot deserts. In temperate regions, contamination may be severe during drought. The contamination process is frequently broken down into two phases with the first phase occurring on the developing crop and the second phase affecting the crop after maturation. Rain and temperature influence the phases differently with dry, hot conditions favoring the first and warm, wet conditions favoring the second. Contamination varies with climate both temporally and spatially. Geostatistics and multiple regression analyses have shed light on influences of weather on contamination. Geostatistical analyses have been used to identify recurrent contamination patterns and to match these with environmental variables. In the process environmental conditions with the greatest impact on contamination are identified. Likewise, multiple regression analyses allow ranking of environmental variables based on relative influence on contamination. Understanding the impact of climate may allow development of improved management procedures, better allocation of monitoring efforts, and adjustment of agronomic practices in anticipation of global climate change.

Geoestatística como metodologia para estudar a dinâmica espaço-temporal de doenças associadas a Colletotrichum spp. transmitidos por sementes

Objetivou-se no presente trabalho caracterizar o progresso espaço-temporal da severidade da antracnose do feijoeiro comum e da ramulose do algodoeiro por meio da Geoestatística. Os experimentos foram conduzidos no campo, durante o período das águas, em diferentes épocas. Sementes inoculadas pelo método da restrição hídrica foram semeadas no centro de parcelas experimentais constituindo fonte de inóculo do tipo ponto. Foram realizadas semanalmente seis avaliações da severidade das doenças com base em escalas de notas. Pelos modelos de semivariograma isotrópicos esféricos e gaussianos ajustados aos dados, verificou-se o padrão de distribuição agregado e a dependência espacial de ambos os patossistemas. Com o mapeamento da severidade das doenças pelo método da krigagem ordinária em blocos, verificou-se menor severidade das doenças nos primeiros estádios, com aumento gradual ao longo do tempo. A antracnose apresentou formação inicial de focos de inóculo secundário, além do foco com inóculo inicial, que coalesceram com o tempo. A severidade da ramulose diminuiu gradualmente de forma radial e contínua do centro da parcela para as extremidades, com maior capacidade de infecção de plantas vizinhas, quando comparada à antracnose, possivelmente pela maior agressividade do patógeno e hábito de crescimento arbustivo do algodoeiro.

Mapping of Aspergillus Section Nigri in Southern Europe and Israel based on geostatistical analysis

Geostatistical analysis was applied to the incidence of Aspergillus Section Nigri and A. carbonarius in Southern Europe and Israel for the 3-year period 2001-2003 to facilitate identification of regions of high risk from contamination with these fungi and production of ochratoxin. The highest incidence of black aspergilli was normally observed at harvesting. At this grape growth stage, spatial variability of black aspergilli was significantly related to latitude and longitude, showing a positive West-East and North-South gradient. Predictive maps of infected berries incidence were drawn and showed the same trend in the 3 years, but incidence was highest in 2003, followed by 2001 and 2002. The highest incidence was always observed in Israel, Greece and Southern France, associated with the highest incidence of A. carbonarius. Southern Spain and Southern Italy also had relevant incidence of black aspergilli. The thermo-wetness maps for the 3 years showed a trend similar to the incidence of black aspergilli. The coldest and wettest year was 2002, while 2003 was the hottest and driest, particularly during August, with Israel being the hottest and driest country, followed by Greece and Southern Italy. This indicates that meteorological conditions can contribute to explain spatial distribution variation of black aspergilli within the Mediterranean basin.

Analyses of the Relationships Between Lettuce Downy Mildew and Weather Variables Using Geographic Information System Techniques

Previous studies in coastal California suggested that morning leaf wetness duration and temperature immediately after the prolonged leaf wetness period affect infection of lettuce by the downy mildew pathogen, Bremia lactucae. In this study, spatial analysis tools in a geographic information system were used to interpolate disease assessment data and then relate them to weather variables measured in 1995 and 1997 at weather stations in the Salinas Valley. Among the variables monitored at these weather stations, midday temperature (10:00 A.M. to 2:00 P.M.) was related most strongly to the interpolated downy mildew incidence in a circular area (radius = 5 km) around each station (r = 0.52, P < 0.0001); the higher the midday temperature, the lower the disease incidence. High humidity and prolonged morning leaf wetness duration also were associated with high downy mildew incidence. Cluster analysis resulted in distinct regions with different midday temperatures, which overlapped well (92.2% of the total area) with regions distinguished in previous cluster analyses of downy mildew incidence. Clusters of morning relative humidity showed similar patterns, although they overlapped less well with clusters of disease incidence. These results confirmed that midday temperature is an important determining factor for lettuce downy mildew, and its effects should be incorporated into a disease warning system for coastal California. Cluster analyses based on the effects of temperature have great potential for use in regional downy mildew risk assessment.

Aflatoxin contamination of commercial cottonseed in South Texas

ABSTRACT Aflatoxins are toxic fungal metabolites produced by several members of Aspergillus section Flavi. U.S. federal regulations limit the use of aflatoxin-contaminated cottonseed. Cottonseed with aflatoxin content of 20 ng/g or higher may not enter the profitable dairy market. Between 4,472 and 9,949 truckloads of cottonseed from 31 to 35 gins in South Texas were analyzed for aflatoxin content each year from 1997 to 2001 upon receipt at the Valley Co-op Oil Mill in Harlingen, TX. The highest levels of contamination occurred in 1999, with an average aflatoxin content of 112 ng/g and 66% of the cottonseed truckloads exceeding 20 ng/g. Years 1997 and 2000 had the lowest aflatoxin levels, averaging 24 ng/g, with the lowest incidence (16%) of the truckloads exceeding 20 ng/g in 1997. In general, aflatoxin contamination increased as the ginning season progressed. Rainfall after boll opening correlated highly with aflatoxin content, with rainfall in July explaining over 50% of the observed variability in aflatoxin content. South Texas was divided into four regions: Rio Grande Valley, Coastal Bend, Upper Coast, and Winter Garden. Geostatistical analyses revealed recurrent patterns of high and low contamination. The greatest contamination occurred from the central Coastal Bend region through the southern Upper Coast region. The Rio Grande Valley region experienced the least contamination during the study period.