Prediction of common bile duct stones by noninvasive tests

Might be over-evaluated: Predicting choledocholithiasis in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The increase in liver cholestasis enzyme and bilirubin levels, especially due to pancreatitis, mimics choledocholithiasis. This study aimed to examine the relationship between demographic and laboratory cut-off values and the presence of choledocholithiasis in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP).

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with ABP in the Department of General Surgery at Istanbul Faculty of Medicine between January 2010 and December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. The presence of stones in the common bile duct was determined based on the results of magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), endoscopic ultrasound (EUS), and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Demographic and laboratory values of patients with and without bile duct stones were compared. Cut-off values were determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and logistic regression analysis and modeling was performed for each variable.

RESULTS

A total of 1,026 ABP patients were evaluated. Patients whose enzyme levels were not elevated and those who did not undergo MRCP were excluded. A total of 584 patients were included in the study, and choledocholithiasis was detected in 188 (32.2%) patients. In multivariate analysis, age, gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and direct bilirubin (DB) were found to be statistically associated with choledocholithiasis. The cut-off values were determined as 65 years for age, 394 U/L for GGT, 173 U/L for ALP, and 1.42 mg/dL for direct bilirubin. In the group where all four parameters were below these cut-off values, suggesting a clean common bile duct, it was observed that the negative predictive value was 97%.

CONCLUSION

Based on the demographic and laboratory data of patients with ABP, we were able to predict with more than 97% accuracy that the common bile duct was clean. Considering that our study only included patients who underwent MRCP due to elevated enzyme levels and suspicion of choledocholithiasis, the negative predictive value would be even higher if patients with acute biliary pancreatitis with normal enzyme levels were included. Additionally, no complications were observed in any of the patients during follow-up. This finding suggests that patients whose common bile duct is predicted to be clean can initially be monitored and supported with additional imaging methods if necessary. As a result, unnecessary imaging can be avoided, reducing costs and preventing the mortality and morbidity associated with unnecessary procedures.

Upfront Laparoscopic Management of Common Bile Duct Stones: What Are the Risk Factors of Failure?

BACKGROUND

Treatment of common bile duct stones (CBDS) includes laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) with either laparoscopic common bile duct exploration (LCBDE) or perioperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). The main objective of this study was to identify predictive factors for the failure of upfront and exclusive surgical treatment by LCBDE.

METHODS

This is a single-center, retrospective study on patients with CBDS and operated for LC between 2007 and 2019. The use of intra- or postoperative endoscopy for CBD clearance within 6 months after surgery was considered as failure of LCBDE. Predictors for the failure of LCBDE were investigated and outcomes were compared.

RESULTS

Among 222 operated patients, LCBDE was successfully performed in 173 patients (78%) and 49 (22%) required ERCP with sphincterotomy (intraoperative (n=29) or postoperative (n=20)). Independent risk factors for surgical failure were male sex (OR: 2.525 (1.111-5.738); p=0.027), anesthesia induction time ≥ 4 p.m. (OR: 4.858 (1.731-13.631); p=0.003), pediculitis (OR: 4.147 (1.177-14.606); p=0.027), and thin CDB < 4mm (OR: 11.951 (3.562-40.097), p< 0.0001). Age, ASA score, cystic anatomy, presence of cholecystitis, and the surgeon's experience were not identified as predictors for surgical failure. A general anesthesia number >1 (6% vs. 33%; p < 0.0001), length of initial stay (6 [1-42] vs. 8 [2-27], p=0.012), total length of hospitalization (6 [1-45] vs. 9 [2-27]; p=0.010), and the rate of emergency readmissions (3.5% vs. 12.2%; p=0.027) were significantly higher in the LCBDE failure group.

CONCLUSIONS

Upfront LCBDE for CBDS was associated with improved outcomes compared to intra-/postoperative ERCP recourse. Male sex, pediculitis, thin CBD, and surgery later than 4 p.m were associated with LCBDE failure and the need for endoscopic treatment.

REGISTRATION NUMBER AND AGENCY

The present retrospective study was approved by our local ethics committee and was declared on ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT04467710).

Utility of the "BATS" Score in Predicting Choledocholithiasis in Patients With Gall Bladder Stones

Background and aim The role of expensive, risky, and unnecessary endoscopic interventions can be avoided by the use of non-invasive tests to predict common bile duct (CBD) stones. Therefore, our aim was to identify non-invasive predictors of choledocholithiasis (CL) in patients and further to predict a model and assess its diagnostic accuracy in predicting CL. Methods This cross-sectional study was carried out from June 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021. Patients having gall bladder stones on percutaneous transabdominal sonography and fulfilling intermediate probability criteria of CL were enrolled. These patients then underwent radial endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) followed by endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) for detecting CBD stones. Univariate logistic regression analysis, followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis, was performed to ascertain the independent predictors of CBD stone in patients with intermediate probability. A model was proposed, and the diagnostic accuracy was calculated at an optimal cutoff. The model was then internally validated in the patients with intermediate probability and was also compared with the pre-existing score. Results Out of 131 patients included in the study, CBD stone was noted in 85 (66%) and 88 (67.2%) patients on EUS and ERCP, respectively. On multivariate analysis, high serum bilirubin (>2 mg/dL) and alkaline phosphatase (200 IU) and dilated CBD (>6 mm) on transabdominal sonography at baseline were significant predictors of CBD stone in these patients. Using these variables, a scoring system (BATS score) was developed, which had an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.98 in predicting the presence of CBD stone with a sensitivity of 93.18%, a specificity of 76.74%, and a diagnostic accuracy of 87.79%. In the validation cohort, a BATS score of ≥5 had a diagnostic accuracy of 95.91% in predicting CL. Conclusion The BATS score showed excellent sensitivity and good diagnostic accuracy in predicting the CBD stone with excellent results on internal validation. However, external validation of our results is required to recommend this model on a larger scale.

The Association of Polish Surgeons (APS) clinical guidelines for the use of laparoscopy in the management of abdominal emergencies. Part I

INTRODUCTION

Over the past three decades, almost every type of abdominal surgery has been performed and refined using the laparoscopic technique. Surgeons are applying it for more procedures, which not so long ago were performed only in the classical way. The position of laparoscopic surgery is therefore well established, and in many operations it is currently the recommended and dominant method.

AIM

The aim of the preparation of these guidelines was to concisely summarize the current knowledge on laparoscopy in acute abdominal diseases for the purposes of the continuous training of surgeons and to create a reference for opinions.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The development of these recommendations is based on a review of the available literature from the PubMed, Medline, EMBASE and Cochrane Library databases from 1985 to 2022, with particular emphasis on systematic reviews and clinical recommendations of recognized scientific societies. Recommendations were formulated in a directive form and evaluated by a group of experts using the Delphi method.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

There are 63 recommendations divided into 12 sections: diagnostic laparoscopy, perforated ulcer, acute pancreatitis, incarcerated hernia, acute cholecystitis, acute appendicitis, acute mesenteric ischemia, abdominal trauma, bowel obstruction, diverticulitis, laparoscopy in pregnancy, and postoperative complications requiring emergency surgery. Each recommendation was supported by scientific evidence and supplemented with expert comments. The guidelines were created on the initiative of the Videosurgery Chapter of the Association of Polish Surgeons and are recommended by the national consultant in the field of general surgery. The first part of the guidelines covers 5 sections and the following challenges for surgical practice: diagnostic laparoscopy, perforated ulcer, acute pancreatitis, incarcerated hernia and acute cholecystitis. Contraindications for laparoscopy and the ERAS program are discussed.

Management of choledocholithiasis in the elderly: Same-admission cholecystectomy remains the standard of care

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend that patients with choledocholithiasis undergo same-admission cholecystectomy. The compliance with this guideline is poor in elderly patients. We hypothesized that elderly patients treated with endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) alone would have higher complication and readmission rates than the patients treated with cholecystectomy.

METHODS

The Nationwide Readmissions Database was queried for all patients aged ≥65 years with admission for choledocholithiasis January to June 2016. The patients were divided based on index treatment received: (1) no intervention; (2) ERCP alone; or (3) cholecystectomy. Multivariate analyses identified predictors of cholecystectomy during index admission and of readmissions.

RESULTS

A total of 16,121 patients with choledocholithiasis were admitted; 38.4% underwent cholecystectomy, 37.6% endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography alone, and 24.0% no intervention. The patients not receiving a cholecystectomy were more likely to be older, female, have a higher Elixhauser score, do-not-resuscitate status, and at a teaching hospital (all P < .001). Emergency readmissions for recurrent biliary disease were lowest in patients undoing a cholecystectomy (2.2% vs 9.2% endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography and 12.4% no intervention, P < .001), as were readmissions for complications (3.6% vs 5.5% and 7.8%, P < .001). Cholecystectomy reduced rates of readmissions for recurrent disease (odds ratio 0.168, P < .001), for complications (odds ratio 0.540, P < .001), and death during readmission (odds ratio 0.503, P = .007); endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography alone reduced only rates of readmissions. Age was not a predictor of readmission or death.

CONCLUSION

Index admission cholecystectomy is associated with a lower risk of readmission for biliary disease or complications, as well as death during readmission, in elderly patients. Age alone is not predictive of outcomes; surgical intervention should be guided by clinical condition, comorbidities, and patient preference.

Peri-ampullary diverticulum was associated with a higher rate of acute cholangitis among patients with choledocholithiasis

BACKGROUND

Choledocholithiasis is a commonly encountered disease that is associated with various clinical presentations ranging from mild form of biliary colic to severe life-threatening acute cholangitis. Recently, peri-ampullary diverticulum (PAD) has been linked to the development of biliary diseases; however, data regarding its association with the development of acute cholangitis in the setting of choledocholithiasis are scarce.

AIMS

We aimed to identify predictors, specifically PAD, for the development of acute cholangitis in patients with choledocholithiasis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cross-sectional study of all patients admitted to Galilee Medical Center from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2019 with different clinical presentations of documented choledocholithiasis including cholangitis, biliary pancreatitis, and biliary colic with abnormal liver enzymes.

RESULTS

Overall, 651 patients were included in the final analysis. Among them, 88 patients (13.5%) had choledocholithiasis associated with acute cholangitis (group A), as compared to 563 patients (86.5%) without acute cholangitis (group B). The average ages in groups A and B were 77.8 ± 13.6 and 62.4 ± 20.4 years, respectively (P < 0.0001). The rate of PAD was significantly higher in group A as compared to group B (35.2% vs. 19%, P = 0.0002). However, the rate of smoking, chronic liver diseases, hemolytic anemia, and post-cholecystectomy status were not different between the groups (P = 0.3, P = 0.3, P = 0.2, and P = 0.3), respectively. On univariate analysis, age (OR 1.05, P < 0.0001) and PAD (OR 2.32, P = 0.0006) were significantly associated with acute cholangitis. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, the effects of age and PAD were preserved (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07, P < 0.0001 and OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.02-2.72, P = 0.049), respectively.

CONCLUSION

PAD showed a significant association with the development of acute cholangitis among patients with choledocholithiasis. Identification of gallbladder and biliary stones in patients with PAD is of paramount importance since early diagnosis and treatment might prevent further life-threatening complications.

Inpatient Choledocholithiasis Management: a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Management Algorithms

BACKGROUND

Choledocholithiasis is commonly encountered. It is frequently managed with laparoscopic common bile duct exploration or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (either preoperative, intraoperative, or postoperative relative to laparoscopic cholecystectomy). The purpose of this study is to determine the most cost-effective method to manage inpatient choledocholithiasis.

METHODS

A decision tree model was created to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of laparoscopic common bile duct exploration and preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. The primary outcome was incremental cost-effectiveness ratio with a ceiling willingness to pay threshold assumed of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year. Model parameters were determined through review of published literature and institutional data. Costs were from the perspective of the healthcare system with a time horizon of 1 year. Sensitivity analyses were performed on model parameters.

RESULTS

In the base case analysis, laparoscopic common bile duct exploration was cost-effective, resulting in 0.9909 quality-adjusted life years at an expected cost of $18,357. Intraoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography yielded more quality-adjusted life years (0.9912) at a higher cost ($19,717) with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $4,789,025, exceeding the willingness to pay threshold. Both preoperative and postoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatographies were eliminated for being both more costly and less effective. Laparoscopic common bile duct exploration remained cost-effective if the probability of successful biliary clearance was above 0.79, holding all other variables constant. If its base cost remained below $18,400 and intraoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography base cost rose above $18,200, then laparoscopic common bile duct exploration remained cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

Laparoscopic common bile duct exploration is the most cost-effective method to manage choledocholithiasis. Efforts to ensure availability of local expertise and resources for this procedure are warranted.

Endoscopic Stone Extraction followed by Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy in Tandem for Concomitant Cholelithiasis and Choledocholithiasis: A Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

Single-session endoscopic stone extraction (ESE) and laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) has the best outcome in managing concomitant cholelithiasis (gallstone disease [GSD]) and choledocholithiasis (common bile duct stone [CBDS]). Traditional rendezvous technique with an intraoperative cholangiogram is associated with various technical (bowel distention, frozen Calot's triangle, limitation of intraoperative cholangiogram and so on) and logistical difficulties (lack of trained personnel and equipment for ESE in the operating room). We modified our approach of ESE-LC (tandem ESE-LC) to study the safety of the approach and overcome these disadvantages of the traditional rendezvous approach.

METHODS

A prospective study of patients with GSD and suspected CBDS from January 2017 to December 2019 was conducted. Tandem ESE-LC involves ESE and LC under the same general anaesthesia in a single day, while ESE is performed in the endoscopic suite using carbon dioxide insufflation, a balloon/basket was used for achieving bile duct clearance and the same was confirmed with an occlusion cholangiogram. Patients were then shifted to the operating room for LC. The primary outcome included bile duct clearance and safety of the procedure.

RESULTS

Of 56 patients assessed for eligibility, 42 were included in the study (median age: 53 years, 25 [60%] women). Biliary colic was the most common presenting symptom (n = 24, 57%), followed by acute cholecystitis (n = 11, 26%). The median number of stones and stone size was 1 (1-6) and 4 mm (3-10), respectively. All patients had successful bile duct clearance. Stenting was performed in 5 (12%) patients. Intraoperatively, Calot's dissection was difficult and frozen in 10 and 11 patients respectively. The cystic duct was short and wide in 13 (31%) patients. Subtotal cholecystectomy was performed in 6 (14%) patients. The median duration of postprocedural hospital stay was 1 (0-13) day. Three patients had tandem ESE-LC on a day-care basis. One patient had post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancretography pancreatitis, and another required percutaneous drainage for gall bladder fossa collection. No patient had retained CBDS at a median follow-up of 18 (3-28) months.

CONCLUSION

Tandem ESE-LC is safe and effective method in managing concomitant GSD and CBDS.

Machine learning models compared to existing criteria for noninvasive prediction of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography-confirmed choledocholithiasis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Noninvasive predictors of choledocholithiasis have generally exhibited marginal performance characteristics. We aimed to identify noninvasive independent predictors of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP)-confirmed choledocholithiasis and accordingly developed predictive machine learning models (MLMs).

METHODS

Clinical data of consecutive patients undergoing first-ever ERCP for suspected choledocholithiasis from 2015-2019 were abstracted from a prospectively-maintained database. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify predictors of ERCP-confirmed choledocholithiasis. MLMs were then trained to predict ERCP-confirmed choledocholithiasis using pre-ERCP ultrasound (US) imaging only and separately using all available noninvasive imaging (US/CT/magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography). The diagnostic performance of American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) "high-likelihood" criteria was compared to MLMs.

RESULTS

We identified 270 patients (mean age 46 years, 62.2% female, 73.7% Hispanic/Latino, 59% with noninvasive imaging positive for choledocholithiasis) with native papilla who underwent ERCP for suspected choledocholithiasis, of whom 230 (85.2%) were found to have ERCP-confirmed choledocholithiasis. Logistic regression identified choledocholithiasis on noninvasive imaging (odds ratio (OR) = 3.045, P = 0.004) and common bile duct (CBD) diameter on noninvasive imaging (OR=1.157, P = 0.011) as predictors of ERCP-confirmed choledocholithiasis. Among the various MLMs trained, the random forest-based MLM performed best; sensitivity was 61.4% and 77.3% and specificity was 100% and 75.0%, using US-only and using all available imaging, respectively. ASGE high-likelihood criteria demonstrated sensitivity of 90.9% and specificity of 25.0%; using cut-points achieving this specificity, MLMs achieved sensitivity up to 97.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

MLMs using age, sex, race, presence of diabetes, fever, body mass index (BMI), total bilirubin, maximum CBD diameter, and choledocholithiasis on pre-ERCP noninvasive imaging predict ERCP-confirmed choledocholithiasis with good sensitivity and specificity and outperform the ASGE criteria for patients with suspected choledocholithiasis.

Management of cholelithiasis with choledocholithiasis: Endoscopic and surgical approaches

Gallstone disease and complications from gallstones are a common clinical problem. The clinical presentation ranges between being asymptomatic and recurrent attacks of biliary pain requiring elective or emergency treatment. Bile duct stones are a frequent condition associated with cholelithiasis. Amidst the total cholecystectomies performed every year for cholelithiasis, the presence of bile duct stones is 5%-15%; another small percentage of these will develop common bile duct stones after intervention. To avoid serious complications that can occur in choledocholithiasis, these stones should be removed. Unfortunately, there is no consensus on the ideal management strategy to perform such. For a long time, a direct open surgical approach to the bile duct was the only unique approach. With the advent of advanced endoscopic, radiologic, and minimally invasive surgical techniques, however, therapeutic choices have increased in number, and the management of this pathological situation has become multidisciplinary. To date, there is agreement on preoperative management and the need to treat cholelithiasis with choledocholithiasis, but a debate still exists on how to cure the two diseases at the same time. In the era of laparoscopy and mini-invasiveness, we can say that therapeutic approaches can be performed in two sessions or in one session. Comparison of these two approaches showed equivalent success rates, postoperative morbidity, stone clearance, mortality, conversion to other procedures, total surgery time, and failure rate, but the one-session treatment is characterized by a shorter hospital stay, and more cost benefits. The aim of this review article is to provide the reader with a general summary of gallbladder stone disease in association with the presence of common bile duct stones by discussing their epidemiology, clinical and diagnostic aspects, and possible treatments and their advantages and limitations.

A validated score predicting common bile duct stone in patients hospitalized with acute calculus cholecystitis: a multi-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Concomitant common bile duct (CBD) stone in the setting of acute calculous cholecystitis (ACC) should be suspected once abnormal liver indices are noticed.

AIM

We aimed to identify predictors of CBD stone in patients hospitalized with ACC.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective multi-center, case-controlled, study from 1st of January 2016 until the 31th of December 2018. Inclusion criteria included patients with an established diagnosis of ACC based on clinical, laboratory and radiological criteria and who had an endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) for suspected CBD stone. One-hundred and twelve patients were included, of these fifty-three patients (47.3%) were diagnosed with CBD stone by EUS.

RESULTS

In univariate analysis, Age (OR 1.038, P = 0.001), total bilirubin (mg/dl) (OR 1.429, P = 0.02) and CBD width (mm) by US (OR 1.314, P = 0.01) were statistically significant in predicting CBD stone and remained significant in multivariate regression analysis. We developed a diagnostic score that included these three parameters, with assignment of weights for each variable according to the coefficient estimate. A low cut-off score of 0 was associated with sensitivity of 100% for CBD stone, whereas a high cut-off score of 3 was associated with sensitivity of 10% and specificity of 96.6% with a positive predictive value of 67% (ROC of 0.7558). We validated this score with an independent cohort (ROC of 0.7416) with a sensitivity of 46.6%, a specificity of 91.5% and a PPV of 87.1%.

CONCLUSION

We recommend incorporating this score as an aid for stratifying patients with ACC into low or high probability for concomitant CBD stone.

Gallbladder Disorders: A Comprehensive Review

Gallbladder disorders encompass a wide breadth of diseases that vary in severity. We present a comprehensive review of literature for the clinical presentation, pathophysiology, diagnostic evaluation, and management of cholelithiasis-related disease, acute acalculous cholecystitis, functional gallbladder disorder, gallbladder polyps, gallbladder hydrops, porcelain gallbladder, and gallbladder cancer.

The ABCdE score for PREdicting Lithotripsy Assistance during transcystic Bile duct Exploration by Laparoendoscopy (PRE-LABEL)

BACKGROUND

Common bile duct (CBD) stones are reported in ~ 15% of patients who undergo laparoscopic cholecystectomy for symptomatic gallstones. Prior to lithotripsy techniques, transcystic laparoscopic common bile duct exploration (LCBDE) was limited to smaller CBD stones. The addition of lithotripsy to LCBDE increases cost, operative time and staffing requirements. Predicting which patients might require lithotripsy would be useful in operative planning. The primary aim was to investigate clinical variables for predicting lithotripsy assistance during transcystic bile duct exploration by laparoendoscopy (PRE-LABEL). Secondary aims were to develop and validate a predictive scoring tool.

METHODS

A retrospective review of a prospectively collected database of consecutive patients who underwent transcystic LCBDE at a single centre in the UK was performed to investigate clinical variables for PRE-LABEL and develop a scoring tool (ABCdE score: age, bilirubin, CBD diameter, ERCP). Binary logistic regression was used to investigate which independent variables (predictors) were associated with lithotripsy assistance during transcystic LCBDE. The ABCdE score was applied to both UK and Spain patient cohorts to determine its sensitivity, specificity and accuracy.

RESULTS

From 8 pre-operative clinical variables analysed, age ≤ 40 years, bilirubin > two-times upper limit of normal, CBD diameter ≥ 10 mm and ERCP failure of stone extraction were independent predictors of requiring lithotripsy during transcystic LCBDE and formed the ABCdE score. The hazard ratios were 2.87, 3.79, 2.78 and 10.06, respectively. An ABCdE score ≥ 2 resulted in 71% sensitivity, 81% specificity and 79% accuracy in predicting lithotripsy during LCBDE (UK cohort). Validation using a contemporary cohort from Spain yielded similar sensitivity, specificity and accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

This study represents the only study to date reporting independent predictors of requiring lithotripsy assistance during transcystic LCBDE. ABCdE score ≥ 2 can highlight patients that may require lithotripsy in order to avoid failure of transcystic LCBDE and therefore avoid choledochotomy or post-operative ERCP.

Predicting common bile duct stones by non-invasive parameters

BACKGROUND

Common bile duct (CBD) stone affect about 10% of patients with symptomatic cholelithiasis. The American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) published a strategy in 2010 for managing patients with suspected choledocholithiasis. This study aimed to assess the performance of different clinical parameters in predicting CBD stones.

METHODS

A total of 344 patients suspected to suffer from CBD stone and referred to endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) were included. Parameters were collected and their prediction power for CBD stones was assessed.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixty-seven patients without CBD stone according to EUS (group A) were compared to 177 patients with CBD stones (group B). Several predictive factors for CBD stone were identified on univariate analysis. In multivariate regression analysis, CBD width by US (OR = 1.224, 95% CI: 1.073-1.359; P = 0.0026), age (OR = 1.023, 95% CI: 1.011-1.035; P = 0.0002) and gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT) level (OR = 1.001, 95% CI: 1.000-1.002; P = 0.0018) were significantly correlated with CBD stone, with receiver operator characteristics (ROC) of 0.7259. We generated a diagnostic equation [age (yr) × 0.1 + CBD width (mm) by US × 1 + GGT (U/L) × 0.005] to predict CBD stone with ROC of 0.7287.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest this score as a very strong predictor for CBD stones, and to reduce the strength of total bilirubin and transaminases as predictors.

Bedside score predicting retained common bile duct stone in acute biliary pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Retained common bile duct (CBD) stone after an acute episode of biliary pancreatitis is of paramount importance since stone extraction is mandatory.

AIM

To generate a simple non-invasive score to predict the presence of CBD stone in patients with biliary pancreatitis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study including patients with a diagnosis of biliary pancreatitis. One hundred and fifty-four patients were included. Thirty-three patients (21.5%) were diagnosed with CBD stone by endoscopic ultrasound (US).

RESULTS

In univariate analysis, age (OR: 1.048, P = 0.0004), aspartate transaminase (OR: 1.002, P = 0.0015), alkaline phosphatase (OR: 1.005, P = 0.0005), gamma-glutamyl transferase (OR: 1.003, P = 0.0002) and CBD width by US (OR: 1.187, P = 0.0445) were associated with CBD stone. In multivariate analysis, three parameters were identified to predict CBD stone; age (OR: 1.062, P = 0.0005), gamma-glutamyl transferase level (OR: 1.003, P = 0.0003) and dilated CBD (OR: 3.685, P = 0.027), with area under the curve of 0.8433. We developed a diagnostic score that included the three significant parameters on multivariate analysis, with assignment of weights for each variable according to the co-efficient estimate. A score that ranges from 51.28 to 73.7 has a very high specificity (90%-100%) for CBD stones, while a low score that ranges from 9.16 to 41.04 has a high sensitivity (82%-100%). By performing internal validation, the negative predictive value of the low score group was 93%.

CONCLUSION

We recommend incorporating this score as an aid for stratifying patients with acute biliary pancreatitis into low or high probability for the presence of CBD stone.

Clinical spotlight review for the management of choledocholithiasis

Choledocholithiasis is a common presentation of symptomatic cholelithiasis that can result in biliary obstruction, cholangitis, and pancreatitis. A systematic English literature search was conducted in PubMed to determine the appropriate management strategies for choledocholithiasis. The following clinical spotlight review is meant to critically review the available evidence and provide recommendations for the work-up, investigations as well as the endoscopic, surgical and percutaneous techniques in the management of choledocholithiasis.

Utility of liver function tests in acute cholecystitis

BACKGROUNDS/AIMS

Common bile duct stones (CBDS) affect the management of acute cholecystitis (AC). This study aims to investigate the utility of liver function tests (LFTs) in predicting the presence of CBDS in AC patients.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of adult patients with AC found in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2008 to 2016. Patients were classified into two groups, without CBDS (AC-) and with CBDS (AC+). LFT results namely total bilirubin, SGOT and ALP were collected and categorized into normal and abnormal with the cut-offs of 1.2 mg/dl for total bilirubin, 40 U/L for SGOT and 120 IU/L for ALP. Measures of diagnostic accuracy for individual and combinations of LFTs were computed.

RESULTS

A total of 32,839 patients were included in the study, with 8,801 (26.8%) AC+ and 24,038 (73.2%) AC- patients. Their mean age was 52.4 (±18.6) years and over half (59.1%) were females. Mean LFT results were significantly higher in the AC+ group for total bilirubin (1.82 vs 0.97), SGOT (110.9 vs 53.3) and ALP (164.4 vs 102.3) (p<0.0001). The proportions of abnomal LFTs were significantly higher in the AC+ group for total bilirubin (47.7% vs 20.2%), SGOT (62.8% vs 27.1%) and ALP (56.6% vs 21.0%) (p<0.0001). Among AC+, the odds of having abnormal results for bilirubin, SGOT and ALP were found to be 3.61, 4.54 and 4.90 times higher than among AC-, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Abnormal LFTs are strong predictors for the presence of CBDS in patients with AC. Normal LFTs should be interpreted with caution as some patients with AC and CBDS might not present with characteristic abnormalities in results.

ASGE guideline on the role of endoscopy in the evaluation and management of choledocholithiasis

Each year choledocholithiasis results in biliary obstruction, cholangitis, and pancreatitis in a significant number of patients. The primary treatment, ERCP, is minimally invasive but associated with adverse events in 6% to 15%. This American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) Standard of Practice (SOP) Guideline provides evidence-based recommendations for the endoscopic evaluation and treatment of choledocholithiasis. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework was used to rigorously review and synthesize the contemporary literature regarding the following topics: EUS versus MRCP for diagnosis, the role of early ERCP in gallstone pancreatitis, endoscopic papillary dilation after sphincterotomy versus sphincterotomy alone for large bile duct stones, and impact of ERCP-guided intraductal therapy for large and difficult choledocholithiasis. Comprehensive systematic reviews were also performed to assess the following: same-admission cholecystectomy for gallstone pancreatitis, clinical predictors of choledocholithiasis, optimal timing of ERCP vis-à-vis cholecystectomy, management of Mirizzi syndrome and hepatolithiasis, and biliary stent therapy for choledocholithiasis. Core clinical questions were derived using an iterative process by the ASGE SOP Committee. This body developed all recommendations founded on the certainty of the evidence, balance of risks and harms, consideration of stakeholder preferences, resource utilization, and cost-effectiveness.

Combination of CT findings can reliably predict radiolucent common bile duct stones: a novel approach using a CT-based nomogram

OBJECTIVES

To identify CT features that reliably predict the presence of radiolucent common bile duct (CBD) stones.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included 112 patients (mean age, 60.6 years) with clinically suspected CBD stones that were not visible on CT. All patients had undergone CT followed by endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) to confirm the presence (n = 66) or absence (n = 46) of CBD stones. Two radiologists independently evaluated the CT images. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify demographic, laboratory, and CT predictors for CBD stones. We developed a nomogram based on these results and assessed its performance.

RESULTS

In the multivariate analysis, CBD diameter ≥ 8 mm (odds ratio [OR], 10.12; p < 0.001), pericholecystic fat infiltration (OR, 3.76, p = 0.014), and papillitis (OR, 2.85; p < 0.049) were independent CT predictors of CBD stones. Combination of all three features had a specificity of 100%. Of these features, CBD diameter ≥ 8 mm was the best single predictor. The CT-based nomogram had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.847 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.777-0.916) and an accuracy of 77.7% (95% CI, 69.1-84.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of significant CT features (CBD diameter ≥ 8 mm, pericholecystic fat infiltration, and papillitis) translated into a nomogram allows a reliable estimation of CBD stone presence. It may serve as a decision support tool to determine whether to proceed to further diagnostic tests or treatment option.

KEY POINTS

• CBD diameter ≥ 8 mm (odds ratio [OR] = 10.12, p < 0.001), pericholecystic fat infiltration (OR = 3.76, p = 0.014), and papillitis (OR = 2.85, p = 0.049) were independent predictors of radiolucent CBD stones. • A CBD diameter ≥ 8 mm was the best predictor of CBD stones. • A nomogram based on a combination of these three CT signs predicted the presence of CBD stones and helped classify patients that should go immediately to ERCP, those who require a further investigation, and those who can safely be managed conservatively.

Surgery Reduces Risk of Complications Even in High-Risk Veterans After Endoscopic Therapy for Biliary Stone Disease

BACKGROUND

In otherwise healthy patients, randomized trials have shown reduced mortality with cholecystectomy (CCY) when compared to non-operative management after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) for biliary stone disease. These findings may not apply to veterans with multiple comorbidities, who have an increased risk of postoperative complications.

AIMS

Our study assessed the benefit of CCY among veterans with multiple comorbidities.

METHODS

Medical records of patients undergoing ERCP for biliary stone-related diseases from July 2008 to December 2016 were reviewed. Among patients who did not undergo CCY, risk of postoperative complications or death with CCY was estimated using the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program risk calculator. Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and American Society of Anesthesiologists classification system (ASA) were used to assess patient's functional status. The primary outcome was incidence of recurrent biliary events or death with non-operative management, compared to estimated risk of serious postoperative complications or death with CCY.

RESULTS

A total of 152 patients met inclusion criteria, 81 of whom did not undergo CCY. Patients managed non-operatively were older and less medically fit than patients who underwent CCY. Biliary complications recurred in 23 patients managed non-operatively, including 3 deaths due to cholangitis. Among patients with CCI ≥ 3 and ASA ≥ 3 who were managed non-operatively (n = 43), the risk of serious biliary events was significantly higher than estimated risk of serious postoperative complications with laparoscopic CCY (26 vs 5%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that non-operative management is associated with a higher risk of complications than laparoscopic CCY, even among veterans with significant comorbidities.

Use of Liver Function Tests as First-line Diagnostic Tools for Predicting Common Bile Duct Stones in Acute Cholecystitis Patients

BACKGROUND

Prior studies have examined the use of liver function tests (LFT) for predicting the presence of common bile duct (CBD) stones in chronic cholecystitis (CC) patients. It is currently unclear whether LFT are also useful for predicting CBD stones in patients with acute cholecystitis (AC).

METHODS

Of 1059 patients who visited an emergency room with gallbladder-related symptoms between March 2004 and December 2009, 854 patients were analyzed, and were divided into three groups (556 AC patients without CBD stones (AC - CBD), 98 AC patients with CBD stones (AC + CBD), and 200 CC patients without CBD stones). We compared the LFT values at admission and the changes in LFT values over time following admission among the three groups.

RESULTS

The LFT values were significantly greater in the AC + CBD group than in the AC - CBD groups. Of all the LFT variables analyzed, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase was the most reliable variable for predicting the presence of CBD stones, with a sensitivity of 80.6 % and a specificity of 75.3 % at the cut-off level of 224 IU/L. The elevated LFT values decreased significantly from the start of the follow-up assessment to before cholecystectomy in the AC - CBD group, but were unchanged before stone removal in the AC + CBD group.

CONCLUSION

The LFT values on initial admission and the changes in LFT values over time are reliable predictors of CBD stones in patients with AC.

Cost-effective Decisions in Detecting Silent Common Bile Duct Gallstones During Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of routine intraoperative ultrasonography (IOUS), cholangiography (IOC), or expectant management without imaging (EM) for investigation of clinically silent common bile duct (CBD) stones during laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

BACKGROUND

The optimal algorithm for the evaluation of clinically silent CBD stones during routine cholecystectomy is unclear.

METHODS

A decision tree model of CBD exploration was developed to determine the optimal diagnostic approach based on preoperative probability of choledocholithiasis. The model was parameterized with meta-analyses of previously published studies. The primary outcome was incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from each diagnostic strategy. A secondary outcome was the percentage of missed stones. Costs were from the perspective of the third party payer and sensitivity analyses were performed on all model parameters.

RESULTS

In the base case analysis with a prevalence of stones of 9%, IOUS was the optimal strategy, yielding more QALYs (0.9858 vs 0.9825) at a lower expected cost ($311 vs $574) than EM. IOC yielded more QALYs than EM in the base case (0.9854) but at a much higher cost ($1122). IOUS remained dominant as long as the preoperative probability of stones was above 3%; EM was the optimal strategy if the probability was less than 3%. The percentage of missed stones was 1.5% for IOUS, 1.8% for IOC and 9% for EM.

CONCLUSIONS

In the detection and resultant management of CBD stones for the majority of patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy, IOUS is cost-effective relative to IOC and EM.

Management of suspected common bile duct stone: diagnostic yield of current guidelines

BACKGROUND

The American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) has recently published a guideline for suspected CBDS with the intention of reducing unnecessary ERCP and thereby complications. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the ASGE guideline.

METHODS

Data of patients who underwent ERCP with suspected CBDS were analyzed retrospectively. Patients were classified into high, intermediate and low risk groups based on predictors that have been suggested by the ASGE. Very strong predictors of the presence of ductal stones included: CBDS on transabdominal ultrasonography (US), clinical ascending cholangitis or total bilirubin (TBIL) >4 mg/dL). Strong predictors included dilated CBD >6 mm on US with gallbladder in situ and TBIL level of 1.8-4.0 mg/dL whereas moderate predictor included abnormal liver biochemical test other than bilirubin, age more than 55 years and clinical findings of biliary pancreatitis.

RESULTS

Of 888 enrolled patients, 704 had CBDS demonstrated by ERCP and the remainder did not. All very strong and strong predictors were found to be significantly higher among patients who had CBDS. Detection of CBDS by ultrasonography and a dilated common biliary duct were observed to be independent risk factors associated with the existence of CBDS. The high risk group had a high (86.7%) positive predictive value (PPV), however, sensitivity and specificity were observed to be moderate (67.8% and 60.3% respectively). PPV was 67.9% in the intermediate risk group and the sensitivity and specificity were very low (31.9% and 42.3%).

DISCUSSION

The probability of CBDS was observed to be high in the intermediate and high risk groups. However due to low sensitivity and specificity values, the ASGE guideline needs additional or different predictors.

The value of magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography for the exclusion of choledocholithiasis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the ability of Magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) to exclude choledocholithiasis (CDL) in symptomatic patients.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Patients suspected of choledocholithiasis who underwent MRCP from 2008 through 2013 in a population based study at the National University Hospital of Iceland were retrospectively analysed, using ERCP and/or intraoperative cholangiography as a gold standard diagnosis for CDL.

RESULTS

Overall 920 patients [66% women, mean age 55 years (SD 21)] underwent MRCP. A total of 392 patients had a normal MRCP of which 71 underwent an ERCP investigation demonstrating a CBD stone in 29 patients. A normal MRCP was found to have a 93% negative predictive value (NPV) and 89% probability of having no CBD stone demonstrated as well as no readmission due to gallstone disease within six months following MRCP. During a 6-month follow-up period of the 321 patients who did not undergo an ERCP nine (2.8%) patients were readmitted with right upper quadrant pain and elevated liver tests which later normalised with no CBD stone being demonstrated, three (0.9%) patients were readmitted with presumed gallstone pancreatitis, two (0.6%) patients were readmitted with cholecystitis and two (0.6%) patients were lost to follow-up. Seven patients of those 321 underwent an intraoperative cholangiography (IOC) and all were negative for CBD stones. For the sub-group requiring ERCP following a normal MRCP the NPV was 63%.

CONCLUSION

Our results support the use of MRCP as a tool for exclusion of choledocholithiasis with the potential to reduce the amount of unnecessary ERCP procedures.

Is Preoperative Evaluation of the Biliary Tree Necessary in Uncomplicated Gallstone Disease?

Aim:

To analyse if preoperative radiology is of value in patients with uncomplicated gallstone disease.

Material:

312 patients intended for laparoscopic cholecystectomy were randomly allocated to undergo preoperative radiology (intravenous cholangiography or magnetic resonance cholangiography) or to a control group. Intraoperative cholangiography was not used routinely in either group.

Results:

There was no bile duct injury and no difference in complication frequency between the two groups. The incidence of common bile duct stones was 3,8 % within the first postoperative year with no statistical difference between the two groups.

Conclusions:

Routine preoperative evaluation of the bile tree seems unnecessary before laparoscopic cholecystectomy in patients with uncomplicated gallstone disease.

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiography for pediatric choledocholithiasis: Assessing the need for endoscopic intervention

AIM: To assess pediatric patients for choledocholithiasis. We applied current adult guidelines to identify predictive factors in children.

METHODS: A single-center retrospective analysis was performed at a tertiary children’s hospital. We evaluated 44 consecutive pediatric patients who underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiography (ERCP) for suspected choledocholithiasis. Patients were stratified into those with common bile duct stones (CBDS) at ERCP vs those that did not using the American Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guidelines (Very Strong and Strong criteria) for suspected CBDS.

RESULTS: CBDS were identified in 84% at the time of ERCP. Abdominal ultrasound identified CBDS in 36% of patients. Conjugated bilirubin ≥ 0.5 mg/dL was an independent risk factor for CBDS (P = 0.003). The Very Strong (59.5%) and Strong (48.6%) ASGE criteria identified the majority of patients (P = 0.0001). A modified score using conjugated bilirubin had a higher sensitivity (81.2% vs 59.5%) and more likely to identify a stone than the standard criteria, odds ratio of 25.7 compared to 8.8. Alanine aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transferase values identified significant differences in a subset of patients with odds ratio of 4.1 and 3.25, respectively.

CONCLUSION: Current adult guidelines identified the majority of pediatric patients with CBDS, but specific pediatric guidelines may improve detection, thus decreasing risks and unnecessary procedures.

Scoring system to preoperatively predict choledocholithiasis

BACKGROUND

The incidence of common bile duct (CBD) calculi has been reported to be 8 % to 20 % among the patients with cholelithiasis. Failure to detect CBD stones on the part of the surgeon not only fails to relieve symptoms but also subjects them to potentially life-threatening complications such as cholangitis, pancreatitis or obstructive jaundice. Modalities for detection of CBD stones have evolved over time from CBD exploration based on clinical and operative findings to intraoperative cholangiography (IOC), to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreaticography (ERCP) and, recently, to magnetic resonance cholangiopancreaticography (MRCP) and endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS). We felt a need for a scoring system to predict a patient population having a higher risk of choledocholithiasis so that these modern interventions can be selectively utilized.

SETTING

This study was performed in a tertiary care medical college hospital in a metropolitan city.

DESIGN

This is a prospective observational study.

METHODS

All patients with symptomatic cholelithiasis admitted to the hospital were included. Patients were diagnosed as having choledocholithiasis either by ultrasonography (USG), computed tomography scan, MRCP, EUS or ERCP and were followed up for at least 6 weeks.

RESULTS

The prevalence of choledocholithiasis among the 275 patients with symptomatic biliary colic in our study was 18.9 % (n = 77). On bivariate analysis, dilated bile duct on USG (>6 mm), raised total bilirubin, raised alkaline phosphatase (ALP), raised amylase, raised SGPT and SGOT were significantly associated with choledocholithiasis (p < 0.05). On multivariate analysis also, all these factors except amylase and SGPT showed a significant correlation with choledocholithiasis (p < 0.05). These observations were used to build a scoring system consisting of four factors: dilated bile duct on USG (>6 mm), total bilirubin >2 mg/dL, ALP >190 IU/L and SGOT >40 IU/L.

CONCLUSION

A positive predictive value of 3 or more factors was over 95 %, necessitating an endoscopic intervention. A negative predictive value of the absence of any factor was 100 %, which ruled out CBD calculi. If only one or two factors are positive, then further evaluation is recommended preferably using non-minimal or minimal invasive investigations like EUS or MRCP.

Evaluation of patients with abnormalities on intraoperative cholangiogram: time to abandon endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography as the initial follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is currently the method of choice for the postoperative evaluation of suspected bile duct stones seen on intraoperative cholangiogram (IOC); however, the sensitivity of IOC for identifying biliary pathology is unclear, with studies reporting false positive rates between 30% and 60%.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate the sensitivity of IOC for biliary pathology, using ERCP with sphincterotomy and balloon sweep as gold standard.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Tertiary medical centre.

PATIENTS

130 consecutive patients (age 51.3±1.7 years, 69.2% women) who underwent ERCP for the evaluation of abnormalities identified on IOC between 2005 and 2013.

INTERVENTIONS

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

Sensitivity of IOC, identify predictors of positive postoperative ERCP and ERCP-related complications.

RESULTS

ERCP was successful in all 130 subjects. ERCP-related adverse events occurred in six (4.3%) patients, including self-limited post-sphincterotomy bleeding in three (2.3%) and mild post-ERCP pancreatitis in three (2.3%). Overall, 41 (31.5%) patients had normal cholangiogram at time of ERCP. Finding of a filling defect on IOC was the only predictor for the presence of common bile duct stones on postoperative ERCP (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.0 to 10.8, p=0.05).

LIMITATIONS

Retrospective study design.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly one-third of patients with abnormal IOC had a normal postoperative ERCP. Significant pathology could have been missed in 1/130 patients. Based on these findings, we believe the use of less-invasive diagnostic modalities may be used in place of ERCP in patients with suspected choledocholithiasis on IOC.

Prospective assessment of consensus criteria for evaluation of patients with suspected choledocholithiasis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guidelines have proposed criteria to stratify patients into low, intermediate and high risk of choledocholithiasis. The criteria include variables that are readily available in clinical practice. The objective of the present study was to prospectively assess the accuracy of these criteria.

METHODS

A prospective observational cohort study was conducted at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. All adult patients referred for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) with suspected choledocholithiasis were considered for inclusion. ASGE criteria were applied, and each patient was categorized as high, intermediate or low risk for choledocholithiasis. Presence of stone at ERCP served as criteria standard.

RESULTS

During the study period, 402 patients met study inclusion criteria and 336 were reported in the final analysis. Of the 244 patients in the high risk for choledocholithiasis group, 185 were found to have stones at ERCP (75.8%, 95% CI 70.2-80.1%). Of the 92 patients in the intermediate risk for choledocholithiasis group, 45 had stones at ERCP (48.9%, 95% CI 38.8-59.1%); P-value for difference between groups = 0.001. Diagnostic accuracy for choledocholithiasis in the high-risk group was 69.05%, and for the intermediate group was 39.95%. Presence of choledocholithiasis on pre-ERCP imaging (OR: 3.6; 95% CI 2.2-6.0; P < 0.01), and bilirubin >1.8 but <4 mg/dL (OR: 1.69; 95% CI 1.0-2.8; P < 0.04) were the strongest predictors of choledocholithiasis. No additional variable that improved accuracy of ASGE criteria was identified.

CONCLUSION

ASGE criteria stratify patients by risk for choledocholithiasis and can be used in routine clinical practice.

A scoring system for the prediction of choledocholithiasis: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Techniques for diagnosing choledocholithiasis pose significant morbidity and mortality risks.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop and validate a clinical scoring system for predicting choledocholithiasis.

DESIGN

Data from a prospectively maintained database of all patients with gallstones.

SETTING

Patients were admitted to the general surgery department of a military hospital.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We enrolled consecutive patients with symptomatic gallstones, biliary pancreatitis, obstructive jaundice, or cholangitis, who subsequently underwent biochemical testing and ultrasonography. A predictive model was developed from a scoring system using their imaging and laboratory data. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) or intraoperative cholangiography were used for confirmatory diagnoses. The predictive efficacy of the scoring system was validated using a retrospective cohort of 272 patients.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Predictive accuracy of the scoring system.

RESULTS

We enrolled 155 patients in the development group. The common bile duct diameter, alkaline phosphatase of >=200 IU, elevated bilirubin levels, alanine transaminase of >=220 IU, and male age of >=50 years were significantly associated with choledocholithiasis and were included in the scoring system. Ninety-six patients (35%) had scores of >=8 (high risk), 86 patients (32%) had scores of 4-7 (intermediate risk), and 27 patients (10%) had scores of 1-3 (low risk). In the validation cohort, the positive predictive value for a score of >=8 was 91.7%, and the scoring system had an area under the curve of 0.896.

CONCLUSION

Scores of >=8 were strongly correlated with choledocholithiasis in the developmental and validation groups, which indicates that our scoring system may be useful for predicting the need for therapeutic ERCP. However, prospective validation in a large multicenter cohort is needed to fully understand the benefits of the system.

LIMITATIONS

The retrospective validation cohort might have introduced selection and observational biases. The study may have been underpowered because of the sample size of the developmental cohort. The delay between admission and the time of ERCP theoretically may have increased the number of negative ERCP results, but our false negative rate for ERCP was consistent with the previously reported rates.

Usefulness of early post-operative liver function test monitoring after laparoscopic common bile duct exploration

BACKGROUND

This study examines the usefulness of early post-operative liver function test (LFT) monitoring in predicting retained choledocholithiasis after laparoscopic common bile duct exploration (LCBDE).

METHODS

Data on patients who had LCBDE over a 3-year period were collected retrospectively. Patients who had ongoing choledocholithiasis after unsuccessful LCBDE were considered for the test group and patients who had successful LCBDE were considered for the control group. Preoperative, day 1 post-operative and day 2 post-operative alkaline phosphatase (ALP), gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT), alanine transaminase (ALT) and bilirubin levels were recorded. Proportions of patients who had worsening LFTs were analysed in each group.

RESULTS

Proportions of patient who had worsening LFTs on day 1 were not statistically different between two groups and they were statistically equal on equivalence testing (two one-sided tests). On day 2, proportions of patient were again not statistically different. Bilirubin and ALT were statistically equivalent (P = 0.022 and P = 0.025 respectively) but GGT and ALP failed to achieve statistical equivalence (P = 0.062 and P = 0.138 respectively) on day 2. Twelve patients with normal appearing final intraoperative cholangiogram needed reintervention due to retained choledocholithiasis diagnosed subsequently. LFTs progressively improved despite presence of choledocholithiasis in eight of these 12 patients (75%) and only four were diagnosed by worsening post-operative LFTs during index admission.

CONCLUSION

LFTs in the early post-operative period are not useful in determining which patients require biliary imaging or intervention after an apparently successful LCBDE.

Regression tree for choledocholithiasis prediction

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to develop and compare the predictive accuracy of classification and regression tree (CART) analysis with logistic regression (LR) for predicting common bile duct stones (CBDS) in patients subjected to laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We prospectively collected preoperative (demographic, biochemical, ultrasonographic) and intraoperative (intraoperative cholangiography, cystic duct diameter) data for 154 patients considered for elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy at the department of General Surgery at Gornji Milanovac from 2013 through 2014. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to determine independent predictors of CBDS. The CART analysis was carried out using the predictors identified by LR analysis. Various measures for the assessment of risk prediction models were determined, such as predictive ability, accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and clinical utility using decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

The most decisive variable at the time of classification was the cystic duct diameter category, the alkaline phosphatase, and dangerous stones. The CART model was shown to have good discriminatory ability (93.9%). Accuracy was similar in both models, ranging from 92.9% in the CART model and 93.5% in the LR model. In decision curve analysis, the CART model outperformed the LR model.

CONCLUSION

We developed a user-friendly risk model that can successfully predict the presence of choledocholithiasis in patients planned for elective cholecystectomy. However, before recommending its use in clinical practice, a larger and more complete database should be used to further clarify the differences between models in terms of prediction of the CBDS.

Artificial neural network predicts the need for therapeutic ERCP in patients with suspected choledocholithiasis

BACKGROUND

Selection of patients with the highest probability for therapeutic ERCP remains an important task in a clinical workup of patients with suspected choledocholithiasis (CDL).

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether an artificial neural network (ANN) model can improve the accuracy of selecting patients with a high probability of undergoing therapeutic ERCP among those with strong clinical suspicion of CDL and to compare it with our previously reported prediction model.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational study.

SETTING

Single, tertiary-care endoscopy center.

PATIENTS

Between January 2010 and September 2012, we prospectively recruited 291 consecutive patients who underwent ERCP after being referred to our center with firm suspicion for CDL.

INTERVENTIONS

Predictive scores for CDL based on a multivariate logistic regression model and ANN model.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

The presence of common bile duct stones confirmed by ERCP.

RESULTS

There were 80.4% of patients with positive findings on ERCP. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for our previously established multivariate logistic regression model was 0.787 (95% CI, 0.720-0.854; P < .001), whereas area under the curve for the ANN model was 0.884 (95% CI, 0.831-0.938; P < .001). The ANN model correctly classified 92.3% of patients with positive findings on ERCP and 69.6% patients with negative findings on ERCP.

LIMITATIONS

Only those variables believed to be related to the outcome of interest were included. The majority of patients in our sample had positive findings on ERCP.

CONCLUSIONS

An ANN model has better discriminant ability and accuracy than a multivariate logistic regression model in selecting patients for therapeutic ERCP.

Prospective evaluation of early endoscopic ultrasonography for triage in suspected choledocholithiasis: results from a large single centre series

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic ultrasonography is accurate, safe, and cost-effective in diagnosing common bile duct stones, thus suggesting the possibility to avoid invasive endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography.

AIM

To prospectively evaluate the diagnostic and therapeutic performance of early endoscopic ultrasonography in suspected choledocholithiasis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All consecutive patients presenting to the Emergency Department with suspicion of choledocholithiasis between January 2010 and January 2012 were evaluated and categorized as low, moderate, or high probability of choledocholithiasis, according to accepted criteria. Endoscopic endosonography was carried out within 48 h from the admission and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography was performed soon in case of confirmed choledocholithiasis.

RESULTS

Overall 179 patients were included: 48 (26.8%) were classified as low, 65 (36.3%) as moderate, and 66 (36.9%) as high probability of choledocholithiasis. Of the 86 patients with common bile duct stones at endoscopic endosonography, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography confirmed the finding in 79 (92%). By multivariate analysis only the common bile duct diameter proved an independent predictor of common bile duct stones.

CONCLUSIONS

Early endoscopic endosonography is accurate in identifying choledocholithiasis allowing immediate endoscopic treatment and significant spare of unnecessary endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. This approach can be useful as a triage test to select patients not needing endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, allowing, in selected cases, their early discharge.

Non-invasive assessment of choledocholithiasis in patients with gallstones and abnormal liver function

AIM: To find a non-invasive strategy for detecting choledocholithiasis before cholecystectomy, with an acceptable negative rate of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography.

METHODS: All patients with symptomatic gallstones were included in the study. Patients with abnormal liver functions and common bile duct abnormalities on ultrasound were referred for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. Patients with normal ultrasound were referred to magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography. All those who had a negative magnetic resonance or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy with intraoperative cholangiography.

RESULTS: Seventy-eight point five percent of patients had laparoscopic cholecystectomy directly with no further investigations. Twenty-one point five percent had abnormal liver function tests, of which 52.8% had normal ultrasound results. This strategy avoided unnecessary magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography in 47.2% of patients with abnormal liver function tests with a negative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography rate of 10%. It also avoided un-necessary endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in 35.2% of patients with abnormal liver function.

CONCLUSION: This strategy reduces the cost of the routine use of magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography, in the diagnosis and treatment of common bile duct stones before laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

Validation of the Lacaine-Huguier predictive score for choledocholithiasis: prospective study of 380 patients

The aim of this study was to validate the Lacaine-Huguier score for the prediction of asymptomatic choledocholithiasis.

METHODS

The study enrolled patients over age 18 with symptomatic chronic or acute calculous cholecystitis. Patients already known to have common bile duct stones (CBDS), as evidenced by symptomatic presentation with acute cholangitis or acute gallstone pancreatitis, were not included. We compared the group of patients with a score less than 3.5 versus those with a score greater or equal to 3.5; we also compared the group of patients who underwent intraoperative cholangiography (IOC) with those who did not undergo IOC. The negative predictive value of the Lacaine-Huguier score was calculated.

RESULTS

We note that 308 women and 72 men were consecutively enrolled between February 2008 to March 2009; the average age was 51±16.4 years. The score was less than 3.5 in 154 patients (40.5%). IOC was only performed in 135 of the 226 patients with a score greater or equal to 3.5; reasons for this included a very narrow cystic duct in 67 cases, preoperative miscalculation of the score in nine cases, a technical problem in eight cases, an unspecified reason in four cases, contraindication due to pregnancy in two cases, and intraoperative difficulties in one case. CBDS were detected by IOC in 18 cases. Performance of IOC lengthened the median operative time by 20 minutes. The median follow-up was 8 months (range: 0-30 months). Eleven patients were lost to follow-up (2.9%), six of these had a score less than 3.5. Two patients had residual common bile duct (CBD) stones, one of whom had a score less than 3.5. The negative predictive value was 99.4% (95% confidence interval (CI 95%)=[98-100%]). The risk of leaving a stone in the CBD was 0.6%. When data was analyzed according to the worst case scenario, the negative predictive value became 95.5% (CI 95%=[92-99%]) with a risk of residual CBDS of 4.5%.

CONCLUSION

This study confirmed the validity of the Lacaine-Huguier score. When the score is less than 3.5, the surgeon can refrain from performing IOC with a risk of asymptomatic residual CBDS ranging from 0.6% to 4.5%.

Biochemical and ultrasound parameters may help predict the need for therapeutic endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in patients with a firm clinical and biochemical suspicion for choledocholithiasis

BACKGROUND

Prediction of the need for therapeutic endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in patients with suspected choledocholithiasis (CDL) remains a challenging task.

AIMS

We aimed to evaluate the predictive value of biochemical and ultrasound parameters and to create a corresponding model for prediction of the need for therapeutic ERCP.

METHODS

203 consecutive patients referred to our center due to a firm clinical and/or biochemical suspicion for CDL. All patients underwent ERCP. Biochemical and ultrasound variables were analyzed.

RESULTS

The sample was divided into testing group (103; 50.7%) and validation group (100; 49.3%) which did not differ in their baseline characteristics. Elevated gamma glutamil transaminase (GGT), common bile duct (CBD) diameter and presence of hyperechoic structures in CBD were found to be significant predictors for presence of CBD stones on ERCP (p<0.05) in the testing group. We used these variables to construct a predictive model for the presence of CBD stones on ERCP. The model was tested on a second, validation group of patients using ROC analysis with the area under the ROC curve of 0.81 (%95 CI=0.75-0.86; p<0.001). We identified a threshold (0.86) above which, patients had a high probability (93.1%) for the need for interventional ERCP.

CONCLUSION

Our predictive model may help predict the need for therapeutic ERCP in patients with a suspicion for choledocholithiasis.

Are liver function tests, pancreatitis and cholecystitis predictors of common bile duct stones? Results of a prospective, population-based, cohort study of 1171 patients undergoing cholecystectomy

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to explore the accuracy of elevated liver function values, age, gender, pancreatitis and cholecystitis as predictors of common bile duct stones (CBDS).

METHODS

All patients operated on for gallstone disease over a period of 3 years in a Swedish county of 302,564 citizens were registered prospectively. Intraoperative cholangiography (IOC) was used to detect CBDS.

RESULTS

A total of 1171 patients were registered; 95% of these patients underwent IOC. Common bile duct stones were found in 42% of patients with elevated liver function values, 20% of patients with a history of pancreatitis and 9% of patients with cholecystitis. The presence of CBDS was significantly predicted by elevated liver function values, but not by age, gender, history of acute pancreatitis or cholecystitis. A total of 93% of patients with normal liver function tests had a normal IOC. The best agreement between elevated liver function values and CBDS was seen in patients undergoing elective surgery without a history of acute pancreatitis or cholecystitis.

CONCLUSIONS

Although alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and bilirubin levels represented the most reliable predictors of CBDS, false positive and false negative values were common, especially in patients with a history of cholecystitis or pancreatitis, which indicates that other mechanisms were responsible for elevated liver function values in these patients.

Are liver function tests, pancreatitis and cholecystitis predictors of common bile duct stones? Results of a prospective, population-based, cohort study of 1171 patients undergoing cholecystectomy

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to explore the accuracy of elevated liver function values, age, gender, pancreatitis and cholecystitis as predictors of common bile duct stones (CBDS).

METHODS

All patients operated on for gallstone disease over a period of 3 years in a Swedish county of 302,564 citizens were registered prospectively. Intraoperative cholangiography (IOC) was used to detect CBDS.

RESULTS

A total of 1171 patients were registered; 95% of these patients underwent IOC. Common bile duct stones were found in 42% of patients with elevated liver function values, 20% of patients with a history of pancreatitis and 9% of patients with cholecystitis. The presence of CBDS was significantly predicted by elevated liver function values, but not by age, gender, history of acute pancreatitis or cholecystitis. A total of 93% of patients with normal liver function tests had a normal IOC. The best agreement between elevated liver function values and CBDS was seen in patients undergoing elective surgery without a history of acute pancreatitis or cholecystitis.

CONCLUSIONS

Although alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and bilirubin levels represented the most reliable predictors of CBDS, false positive and false negative values were common, especially in patients with a history of cholecystitis or pancreatitis, which indicates that other mechanisms were responsible for elevated liver function values in these patients.

Prediction of which patients with an abnormal intraoperative cholangiogram will have a confirmed stone at ERCP

BACKGROUND

Abnormal intraoperative cholangiogram (IOC) findings are commonly evaluated using postoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). However, abnormal IOC studies are associated with high false-positive rates. This study aimed to identify a subset of patients with abnormal IOC who would benefit from a postoperative ERCP.

METHODS

This retrospective study investigated 68 patients with abnormal IOC at laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) who underwent postoperative ERCP at two tertiary referral centers over a 4-year period. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine predictors of common bile duct (CBD) stones at postoperative ERCP. These predictors included: indication for LC, abnormal liver function tests, white blood cell count (WBC), amylase and lipase, abdominal ultrasound findings, and IOC findings [(1) non-passage of contrast into the duodenum, (2) single stone, (3) multiple stones, (4) dilated CBD, (5) non-visualization of the distal CBD, and (6) palpable CBD stones].

RESULTS

For all 68 patients, ERCP was successful. ERCP showed CBD stones in 36 cases (52.9%), and normal results in 32 cases (47%). On univariate and multivariate analysis, none of the variables included in this study significantly predicted stones at postoperative ERCP.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately one-half of patients with an abnormal IOC have a normal postoperative ERCP. None of the parameters evaluated in this retrospective study helped identify patients who merit further evaluation by ERCP. The argument could be made that in patients with an abnormal IOC, less invasive methods such as endoscopic ultrasound or magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography could be used postoperatively if symptoms arise to assess for possible retained stone.

The diameter of common bile duct does not predict the cause of extrahepatic cholestasis

BACKGROUND

Extrahepatic cholestasis is usually caused by either a bile duct stone or a stricture. In early phase in primary care, when novel imaging studies such as magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) are seldom available, the differential diagnosis between benign and malignant causes is clinically challenging. The aim of the present study was to analyze the value of the degree of common bile duct dilatation in differential diagnosis of extrahepatic cholestasis.

METHODS

In all, 212 consecutive patients in whom a bile duct stricture (n=103) or a stone (n=109) had been found in ERCP were included in the study population. The maximum diameter of the common bile duct was measured from ERCP images. Plasma bilirubin concentration was measured before ERCP.

RESULTS

The median (range) values for the common bile duct diameter for the patients with a stricture and those with a stone were 16 (5 to 33 mm) and 15 mm (6 to 29 mm), respectively (P=0.0038). In receiver operating characteristic analysis, the difference was barely significant when compared with random value (P=0.0399). Area under curve for bile duct diameter was 0.615.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, the degree of bile duct dilatation does not aid in differential diagnosis between benign and malignant causes of extrahepatic cholestasis.

Acute transient hepatocellular injury in cholelithiasis and cholecystitis without evidence of choledocholithiasis

AIM: To investigate acute transient hepatocellular injury in patients with cholelithiasis and cholecystitis but no evidence of choledocholithiasis.

METHODS: The medical records of patients with cholelithiasis who underwent cholecystectomy between July 2003 and June 2007 were retrospectively reviewed. Imaging studies to detect common bile duct (CBD) stones were performed in 186 patients, who constituted the study population. Biochemical liver tests before and after surgery, and with the presence or absence of CBD stones were analyzed.

RESULTS: In 96 patients with cholelithiasis and cholecystitis without evidence of CBD stones, 49 (51.0%) had an alanine aminotransferase level elevated to 2-3 times the upper limit of normal, and 40 (41.2%) had an elevated aspartate aminotransferase level. Similar manifestations of hepatocellular injury were, as would be expected, even more obvious in the 90 patients with CBD stones. These markers of hepatocellular injury resolved almost completely within 2 wk to 1 mo after cholecystectomy. Compared to 59 patients with histologically less severe cholecystitis in the group undergoing urgent surgery (total 74 patients), the 15 patients with a gangrenous gallbladder had a higher mean level of total bilirubin (1.14 ± 1.27 mg/dL vs 2.66 ± 1.97 mg/dL, P < 0.001) and white cell count (9480 ± 4681/μL vs 12840 ± 5273/μL, P = 0.018).

CONCLUSION: Acute hepatocellular injury in cholelithiasis and cholecystitis without choledocholithiasis is mild and transient. Hyperbilirubinemia and leukocytosis may predict severe inflammatory changes in the gallbladder.