On adjusting for the outcome of previous pregnancies in epidemiologic reproductive studies

Potential confounding by exposure history and prior outcomes: an example from perinatal epidemiology

Prior pregnancy outcomes, such as spontaneous abortion and preterm birth, are often predictive of future pregnancy outcomes. Therefore, many researchers adjust for reproductive history. Although this adjustment may be appropriate for a predictive model, it is not necessarily appropriate when the goal is to obtain an unbiased estimate of the effect of exposure on disease. Reproductive history may seem to meet the conventional criteria for confounding because it is unlikely to be on the causal pathway between exposure and current outcome, is often associated with current outcome, and may be associated with exposure as well. However, whether reproductive history is a confounder or not depends on the underlying reason for its associations with exposure and current outcome. Thus, conventional methods for assessing confounding are often inadequate. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) can be used to evaluate complex scenarios for confounding when the research question is clearly defined with respect to the exposure, the outcome, and the effect estimate of interest. Special care is required when reproductive history affects future exposure. We use 5 DAGs to illustrate possible relations between reproductive history and current outcome. We assess each DAG for confounding, and identify the appropriate analytic technique. We provide a numeric example using data from the Collaborative Perinatal Project. There is no single answer as to whether reproductive history should be included in the model; the decision depends on the research question and the underlying DAG.

Shift work and subfecundity: a European multicenter study. European Study Group on Infertility and Subfecundity

Shift work has been associated with various unfavorable pregnancy outcomes (ie, pregnancy loss, spontaneous abortion, low birth weight, etc). The suggested underlying mechanism is the interference of shift work with the circadian regulation of human metabolism and, in particular, with the temporal pattern of endocrine function. To analyze the effect of shift work on fecundity, the Time of Unprotected Intercourses (TUI) has been measured in couples recruited in the European Studies on Infertility and Subfecundity, which were undertaken in seven European countries. A low (odds ratio < 2.0) but consistent excess risk of subfecundity (TUI > or = 9.4 months) has been observed both in a representative sample of the general population of women in reproductive age and in a sample of pregnant women or women who had just given birth. The excess risk was also consistently evident both in the subsample of the first pregnancies and in the subsample of the most recent pregnancies. Only the exposure of women to shift work seemed to affect a couple's fecundity; men working shift work did not modify the fecundity pattern of their own couples. No specific job title among shift workers concentrated the risk of subfecundity. No association of menstrual disorders with shift work was identified. Even though residual confounding could partly account for the results and the fact that a plausible biological explanation of the claimed effect is still lacking, data from this study are in favor of an association between shift work and prolonged waiting time to pregnancy.