Value of tumor size as a prognostic variable in colorectal cancer: a critical reappraisal. Am J Clin Oncol. 2011;34:43-49. [PMID: 20101166 DOI: 10.1097/coc.0b013e3181cae8dd]

Effects of the Strength, Assistance in walking, Rise from a chair, Climb stairs, and Falls score on postoperative clinical outcomes following colorectal cancer surgery: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Sarcopenia has known negative effects on clinical and oncological outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). The use of the Strength, Assistance in walking, Rise from a chair, Climb stairs, and Falls (SARC-F) questionnaire to determine the effects of sarcopenia on postoperative complications of CRC has not been reported to date. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the relationship of SARC-F score with clinicopathologic outcomes after CRC surgery.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

We retrospectively included 285 patients who completed SARC-F questionnaires before CRC surgery between July 2019 and March 2022. Patients with an SARC-F score ≥4 (total score: 10) were classified in the high SARC-F group.

RESULTS

Overall, 34 (11.9%) patients had high SARC-F scores. These patients were older (76.9 ± 8.5 vs. 64.5 ± 11.4 years, p < 0.001) and had a higher preoperative CRP (2.5 ± 3.9 vs. 0.8 ± 1.6 mg/L, p = 0.019), lower body mass index (21.7 ± 3.4 vs. 24.0 ± 3.8 kg/m2, p = 0.001), and higher pan-immune-inflammation value (632.3 ± 615.5 vs. 388.9 ± 413.8, p = 0.031). More postoperative complications were noted in the high SARC-F group than in the low SARC-F group (58.8% vs. 35.6%, p = 0.009). High SARC-F scores were significantly associated with higher nodal stage, higher number of harvested lymph nodes, and larger tumor size. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed high SARC-F score and operation time as independent risk factors associated with postoperative complications (odds ratio, 2.212/1.922; 95% confidence interval, 1.021-4.792/1.163-3.175; p = 0.044/0.011, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative SARC-F score was an independent risk factor associated with postoperative complications following colorectal cancer surgery.

Differential Colorectal Cancer Mortality Across Racial and Ethnic Groups: Impact of Socioeconomic Status, Clinicopathology, and Treatment-Related Factors

INTRODUCTION

Non-Hispanic Black (Black) colorectal cancer (CRC) patients have a higher risk of mortality than most other racial/ethnic groups. Limited studies examine the contribution of socioeconomic (SES), clinicopathologic, or treatment variations to mortality disparities. This retrospective cohort investigation examined the extent to which SES, clinicopathologic, and treatment factors explain racial/ethnic differences in CRC mortality.

METHODS

We studied 146,515 individuals, 18+ years old, with a confirmed diagnosis of CRC within 2010-2017, identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We performed Cox regression analyses to examine the association of race and ethnicity, surgery type, and tumor site with all-cause mortality and CRC-specific mortality. We then performed mediation analysis to quantify the extent to which mortality differences were mediated by SES, clinicopathologic, and treatment factors.

RESULTS

Black patients had a significantly higher hazard of all-cause mortality than non-Hispanic White (White) patients. The White versus Black patients' comparison demonstrated that variations in SES and clinicopathologic factors significantly explained 46.63% (indirect effect HR: 0.92, 95% CI 0.91-0.93) and 10.87% (indirect effect HR: 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99) of the excess all-cause mortality among Black patients, respectively. The Hispanic versus Black comparisons identified SES as the most influential mediator, explaining 19.68% of the excess all-cause mortality. The proportions mediating for CRC-specific mortality showed comparable outcomes to all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSION

Black patients had a greater risk for all-cause mortality and CRC-specific mortality attributed to SES and clinicopathologic variations compared to other racial/ethnic groups. Future studies should investigate equity in healthcare through interventions addressing SES-related disparities.

Impact of Small Tumor Size on Prognosis in T3N1 Colon Cancer

BACKGROUND

Traditionally, large tumor size is associated with poor survival in colon cancer, but its impact remains limited and controversial. Recently, the impact of small tumor size on prognosis has gained attention. This study aimed to investigate whether small tumor size can be an additional parameter for T3N1 colon cancer prognosis.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 162 consecutive patients with pT3N1 colon cancer between 2010 and 2021. The optimal cutoff value of tumor size was calculated through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. We evaluated survival through the Kaplan-Meier method, and the risk of prognosis through multivariate Cox models.

RESULTS

The optimal cutoff value of tumor size was 45 mm. The recurrence rate was significantly higher in tumor size < 45 mm than in ≥ 45 mm (25.7% vs. 12.0%, p = 0.037). Tumor size < 45 mm also had lower overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and cancer-specific survival (CSS) than its counterpart (p = 0.03 for all). In multivariate analyses, age ≥ 70 years, undifferentiated histological type, and tumor size < 45 mm were independent prognostic factors for OS (p = 0.025, p = 0.001, p < 0.04, respectively), whereas tumor size < 45 mm was the only independent prognostic factor for RFS (p = 0.043). Meanwhile, the independent prognostic factors for CSS were undifferentiated histological type and tumor size < 45 mm (p = 0.008 for both).

CONCLUSIONS

Small tumor size is associated with poor prognosis in pT3N1 colon cancer cases. Thus, small tumors potentially have biologically aggressive features.

Augmentation of Solid Tumor Immunotherapy With IL-12

Immunotherapy describes a class of therapies in which the immune system is manipulated for therapeutic benefit. These treatments include immune checkpoint inhibitors, adoptive cell therapy, and vaccines. For many hematological malignancies, immunotherapy has emerged as an essential treatment component. However, this success has yet to be replicated for solid tumors, which develop advanced physical and molecular mechanisms for suppressing and evading immune destruction. Nevertheless, cytokine immunotherapy presents a potential remedy to these barriers by delivering a proinflammatory immune signal to the tumor and thereby transforming it from immunologically "cold" to "hot." Interleukin-12 (IL-12), one of the most potent proinflammatory cytokines, was initially investigated for this purpose. However, initial murine and human studies in which IL-12 was administered systemically resulted in dangerous immunotoxicity associated with off-target immune activation. As a result, recent studies have employed advanced cell and molecular engineering approaches to reduce IL-12 toxicity while increasing or maintaining its efficacy such that its effective doses can be tolerated in humans. This review highlights such developments and identifies promising future directions.

Evaluation of the prognostic effectiveness of liver metastasis volume by volumetric measurement in colorectal cancer

Aim: To evaluate the relationship between liver metastasis volume and survival in colorectal cancer patients using the volumetric measurement method.Methods: 114 colorectal cancer patients with isolated liver metastases were included in the study. Liver tumor volume, total liver volume were calculated from the patients images at the time of diagnosis. Vitrea 7.14 imaging software was used for liver volume analysis and volume analysis of each metastasis.Results: Median overall survival(OS) in the group with tumor volume <42 ml3 was 30.98 months In the group with tumor volume ≥42 ml3, median OS was 16.36 months (p: 0.001). In patients who underwent metastasectomy, the median OS in the group with a tumor volume <42 ml3 was 52.3 months, the median OS in the group with a tumor volume ≥42 ml3 was 22.2 months. In patients who did not undergo metastasectomy, the median OS in the <42 ml3 group was 20.23 months, the median OS in the ≥42 ml3 group was 15.63 months.Conclusion: In our study, we found that liver metastasis volume was prognostic for OS. It is argued that tumor volume measurement by volumetric measurement is a widely used method in the decision for metastasectomy in liver metastatic colorectal cancer patients.

Association between tumor size and prognosis in patients with small bowel adenocarcinoma-a SEER-based study

BACKGROUND

The association between small-bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA) tumor size and prognosis is unclear, and we used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to assess the prognostic value of SBA tumor size.

METHODS

Patients with postoperative SBA were selected from the SEER database, and overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were used as outcome variables. Tumor size was used as a categorical and continuous variable, respectively, to adjust for confounders and analyze the association between SBA tumor size and prognosis using Cox proportional hazard regression, and the results were visualized using restricted cubic splines (RCS). Spearman correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the statistical correlation between tumor size and tumor invasion depth (T-stage). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to estimate OS at different T stages.

RESULTS

When the tumor size was analyzed as a quantitative variable, the adjusted covariate model showed that the HR was 1.008 (P = 0.04) for OS and 1.021 (P = 0.03) for CSS. And regardless of OS or CSS, when the tumor size < 3-4 cm, there was a close linear relationship between tumor size and HR. What's more, in the SEER database, the 5-year survival rates of T1, T2, T3 and T4 patients were 81.8 %, 81.1 %, 66.0 % and 50.9 % (P < 0.001) according to AJCC T-stage. However, in the modified T-stage (mT), these rates were 82.8 %, 70.6 %, 60.7 % and 39.8 % (P < 0.001). When patients within each of the AJCC T stages were stratified by mT stages, significant survival heterogeneity was observed within each of the AJCC T1 to T4 stages(P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

When tumor size is used in a quantitative way, tumor size is an independent predictor of poor outcome in patients with SBA. Furthermore, we established a modified T-stage based on tumor size and depth of invasion.

Sexual dimorphism of colorectal cancer in humans and colorectal tumors in a murine model

Introduction

In colorectal cancer, men exhibit a higher incidence than women, and there is a disturbance in the levels of sex steroids in serum in patients with this disease. Consistently, in animals, males have greater tumor growth than females in diverse models. Nevertheless, the role of sex steroids is not well established. For that, we analyzed the effect of the principal gonadal sex steroids in both sexes. We determined sex as a statistically risk factor for colorectal cancer with data obtained from GLOBOCAN database.

Methods

To induce colorectal tumors, we used the gold standard chemical method of azoxymethane and dextran sulphate of sodium. To evaluate the role of sex steroids, we gonadectomized independent males and female animals, reconstituting and substituting them with 17β estradiol and dihydrotestosterone. Finally, we determined, in vitro, the proliferation of a human cell line exposed to 17β estradiol, testosterone, or dihydrotestosterone. Sex, as a risk factor for colorectal cancer, showed a statistically significant susceptibility of men over 50 years old.

Results

In vivo, males develop a greater number of tumors and with a larger size than females. In males, orchiectomy prevents tumor growth, whereas in females, ovariectomy promotes the development of neoplasms. DHT acts as a protumoral agent in both sexes. 17β estradiol reduces tumor growth in females but enhances it in males, showing a dimorphic effect. In vitro studies reveal that estradiol decreases the proliferation of the HCT-116 colon cancer cell line, while testosterone boosts proliferation in these cells. Interestingly, dihydrotestosterone does not influence proliferation.

Characteristics and outcomes of large (≥5 cm) colonic adenocarcinomas and comparing outcomes of minimally invasive and open surgery for stage I to III disease

BACKGROUND

Colon cancer prognosis is primarily dependent on the stage at diagnosis, but tumor size and location may also impact prognosis. This study aimed to assess the characteristics and outcomes of patients with ≥5 cm colonic adenocarcinomas and compare outcomes of open and minimally invasive surgery for stage I to III large colonic adenocarcinomas.

METHODS

The National Cancer Database (2010-2019) was searched for patients with colonic adenocarcinomas ≥5 cm. Outcomes of patients who underwent minimally invasive surgery or open surgery were compared after propensity-score matching. The primary outcome was 5-year overall survival and, secondarily, hospital stay, surgical margins, and short-term mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 126,959 patients were included (22.1% of all diagnosed adenocarcinomas). 56% of tumors were right-sided, 32.6% were left-sided, and 11.4% were in the transverse colon. Stage IV disease was recorded in 34.6% of patients. Lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, and Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog mutations were recorded in 35.7%, 14.9%, and 41.6% of patients. The rate of positive surgical margins was 9.8%. Median hospital stay was 6 (interquartile range: 4-8) days. 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 4.1% and 7.5%, respectively. After matching, 15,228 patients in the open surgery group were matched to a similar number in the minimally invasive surgery group. The minimally invasive surgery group was associated with significantly lower rates of 30- and 90-day mortality, positive surgical margins, shorter hospital stay, and longer median overall survival (110.6 vs 86.6 months, P < .001) than did open surgery.

CONCLUSION

Large colonic adenocarcinomas are mostly right-sided or transverse and present at a more advanced stage with adverse pathologic features. Minimally invasive surgery was associated with better overall survival and short-term benefits when compared with open surgery.

Preoperative serum cholinesterase as a prognostic factor in patients with colorectal cancer

Aim

Serum cholinesterase (ChE) levels are considered to reflect nutritional status. Although ChE has been well documented as a prognostic factor for some cancers, no clear consensus on its use for colorectal cancer (CRC) has been reached. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between preoperative serum ChE and postoperative long-term prognosis in CRC patients.

Methods

A total of 1053 CRC patients who underwent curative surgery were included in this study. The correlations between the preoperative ChE value and overall survival (OS) or cancer-specific survival (CSS) were assessed. By dividing patients into two groups according to their ChE value, OS and CSS were compared between the groups.

Results

Multivariate analysis revealed that the continuous ChE value was a significant predictor of OS (hazard ratio, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.993-0.998; p = 0.002) and CSS (hazard ratio, 0.994; 95% CI, 0.991-0.998; p = 0.001), independent of other variables. The low-ChE (≤234 U/L) group had a significantly poorer prognosis than the high-ChE (>234 U/L) group for both OS (5-year OS for low ChE and high ChE: 79.8% and 93.3%, respectively; p < 0.001) and CSS (5-year CSS for low ChE and high ChE: 84.8% and 95.6%, respectively; p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Lower preoperative serum ChE levels are a predictive factor of poor prognosis for CRC patients. As serum ChE levels can be measured quickly and evaluated easily, ChE could become a useful marker for predicting the postoperative long-term outcomes of CRC patients.

Sexual dimorphism in colorectal cancer: molecular mechanisms and treatment strategies

INTRODUCTION

Sexual dimorphism significantly influences cancer incidence and prognosis. Notably, females exhibit a lower risk and favorable prognosis for non-reproductive cancers compared to males, a pattern observable beyond the scope of risk behaviors such as alcohol consumption and smoking. Colorectal cancer, ranking third in global prevalence and second in mortality, disproportionately affects men. Sex steroid hormones, particularly estrogens and androgens, play crucial roles in cancer progression, considering epidemiological in vivo and in vitro, in general estrogens imparting a protective effect in females and androgens correlating with an increasing risk of colorectal cancer development.

MAIN BODY

The hormonal impact on immune response is mediated by receptor interactions, resulting in heightened inflammation, modulation of NF-kB, and fostering an environment conducive to cancer progression and metastasis. These molecules also influence the enteric nervous system, that is a pivotal in neuromodulator release and intestinal neuron stimulation, also contributes to cancer development, as evidenced by nerve infiltration into tumors. Microbiota diversity further intersects with immune, hormonal, and neural mechanisms, influencing colorectal cancer dynamics. A comprehensive understanding of hormonal influences on colorectal cancer progression, coupled with the complex interplay between immune responses, microbiota diversity and neurotransmitter imbalances, underpins the development of more targeted and effective therapies.

CONCLUSIONS

Estrogens mitigate colorectal cancer risk by modulating anti-tumor immune responses, enhancing microbial diversity, and curbing the pro-tumor actions of the sympathetic and enteric nervous systems. Conversely, androgens escalate tumor growth by dampening anti-tumor immune activity, reducing microbial diversity, and facilitating the release of tumor-promoting factors by the nervous system. These findings hold significant potential for the strategic purposing of drugs to fine-tune the extensive impacts of sex hormones within the tumor microenvironment, promising advancements in colorectal cancer therapies.

Impact of tumor size on overall survival and cancer-specific survival of early-onset colon and rectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

PURPOSE

This study aimed to investigate the impact of tumor size on survival in early-onset colon and rectal cancer.

METHODS

Early-onset colon and rectal cancer patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2015. Tumor size was analyzed as both continuous and categorical variables. Several statistical techniques, including restricted cubic spline (RCS), Cox proportional hazard model, subgroup analysis, propensity score matching (PSM), and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, were employed to demonstrate the association between tumor size and overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of early-onset colon and rectal cancer.

RESULTS

Seventeen thousand five hundred fifty-one (76.7%) early-onset colon and 5323 (23.3%) rectal cancer patients were included. RCS analysis confirmed a linear association between tumor size and survival. Patients with a tumor size > 5 cm had worse OS and CSS, compared to those with a tumor size ≤ 5 cm for both early-onset colon and rectal cancer. Notably, subgroup analysis showed that a smaller tumor size (≤ 50 mm) was associated with worse survival in stage II early-onset colon cancer, although not statistically significant. After PSM, Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the survival of patients with tumor size ≤ 50 mm was better than that of patients with tumor size > 50 mm.

CONCLUSION

Patients with tumors larger than 5 cm were associated with worse survival in early-onset colon and rectal cancer. However, smaller tumor size may indicate a more biologically aggressive phenotype, correlating with poorer survival in stage II early-onset colon cancer.

Engaging primary care physicians is critical in the screening and diagnosis of colorectal cancer at safety-net hospital systems

Background

Primary care physicians (PCP) play a key role in offering colorectal cancer (CRC) screenings, particularly amongst underserved populations. Given potential delays in or omission of CRC screening in the absence of a PCP, we aimed to determine stage of CRC at diagnosis in an underserved population.

Methods

A retrospective chart review was conducted at two Los Angeles County safety-net hospitals. Inclusion criteria were a CRC diagnosis between 2018 and 2021 and age between 50 and 75 years at diagnosis time. The primary outcome was the cancer stage at diagnosis.

Results

A total of 373 patients were included, of those, 52.5 % had a PCP. Compared to others, PCP was similar in age, racial composition, and primary spoken language (Table 1). Of patients with a PCP, 52.0% were diagnosed by screening. After screening, the most common indication for colonoscopy were blood per rectum (24.9 %) and imaging findings (18.0 %). Patients with a PCP had a significantly lower rate of late stage CRC than those without a PCP (42.4 % vs. 68.0 %, p < 0.001). After adjustment, having a PCP was associated with significantly reduced odds of late stage CRC (Adjusted Odds Ratio 0.83, 95 % Confidence Interval [0.68-1.04]). Having a PCP was not associated with any adjusted increase in number of adenomas or tumor size.

Conclusions

Patients with a PCP, irrespective of undergoing screening, were diagnosed at earlier CRC stages. This underlines the crucial role of PCPs in CRC and diagnosis, reinforcing the need for their active involvement in these processes.

CCDC144NL-AS1/hsa-miR-143-3p/HMGA2 interaction: In-silico and clinically implicated in CRC progression, correlated to tumor stage and size in case-controlled study; step toward ncRNA precision

Unravel the regulatory mechanism of lncRNA CCDC144NL-AS1 in CRC hsa-miR-143-3p, downstream protein HMGA2 interaction arm, association with clinicopathological characteristics. Using peripheral blood as liquid biopsy from 60 CRC patients and 30 controls. The expression levels of CCDC144NL-AS1 and hsa-miR-143-3p detected by qRT-PCR. CCDC144NL-AS1 expression was significantly upregulated in CRC patients' sera, associated with worse CRC clinicopathological features regarding the depth of tumor invasion and highly significant difference between tumor stages 3 and 4 and tumor stages 2 and 4. While, hsa-miR-143-3p expression was downregulated in CRC patients by 4.5-fold change when compared to the control subjects (p < 0.0001) and HMGA2 increased in CRC patients than controls 19.59 ng/μL and 5.377 ng/μL, respectively (p < 0.0001) with significant difference between tumor stages 3 and 4 as well as tumor stages 2 and 4. CRC patients with large tumor size showed upregulation in CCDC144NL-AS1 expression and HMGA2 levels compared to those with small tumor size (p-value = 0.0365 and 0.013, respectively). CCDC144NL-AS1 and HMGA2 were positively correlated, whereas lncRNA CCDC144NL-AS1 and hsa-miR-143-3p were negatively correlated. Conclusion: As an interaction arm CCDC144NL-AS1/hsa-miR-143-3p/HMGA2 were correlated to CRC stages 2-4. Therefore, this interaction arm expression clinically and in silico approved, would direct treatment precision in the near future.

Prognostic Value of Tumor Size in Colon Cancer-Smaller is Better?

BACKGROUND

The prognostic value of tumor size in colon cancer remains controversial. This study aimed to reveal the correlation between tumor size and prognosis of colon cancer.

METHODS

A total of 491 patients with colon cancer were included in this study. The correlation of tumor size with prognosis, mismatch repair status, and other clinicopathological characteristics as well as tumor microenvironment was analyzed.

RESULTS

For stage IIA microsatellite stable (MSS) colon cancer, tumors sized <3.5 cm and ≥5 cm were associated with a poorer disease free survival (DFS) compared with tumors sized between 3.5 and 5 cm (P = .002). Small tumor size (HR = 5.098, P = .001) and large tumor size (HR = 2.749, P = .029) were found to be independent prognostic factors for stage IIA MSS colon cancer. Moreover, high expression of transgelin (TAGLN), a marker of cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs), was found to be an independent prognostic factor for poorer DFS (HR = 9.651, P = .009), which was also associated with smaller tumor size (P = .027).

CONCLUSION

Small (<3.5 cm) and large (≥5 cm) tumor sizes are associated with decreased DFS in stage IIA MSS colon cancer. Enrichment of TAGLN+ CAFs is associated with decreased DFS and small tumor size.

Expression of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) and β-catenin in Colorectal Carcinoma and its Correlation with Tumor Grade and Stage

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is considered the result of the cumulative effect of multiple mutations within the cell that allow it to escape growth control and regulatory mechanisms. EGFR overexpression has been suggested as a factor of poor prognosis in various cancers. β-catenin plays a role in the Wnt signaling pathway of colorectal cancers. An analytical cross-sectional study was conducted over a period of two years comprising 20 colectomy specimens. Clinicopathological details were documented, and immunohistochemistry (IHC) for EGFR and β-catenin was performed. EGFR-Brown membranous staining was observed; β-catenin-Brown membranous or nuclear staining was observed. IHC scoring was done, taking into account the intensity of staining and the percentage of positive tumor cells. The mean age of patients with colorectal carcinoma was 47.45 ± 14.8 (mean + SD) years. No statistically significant difference was noted in the EGFR immunoexpression and tumor grade (p value = 0.361) as well as the TNM stage (p value = 0.699). There was no statistically significant difference between β-catenin immunoexpression and tumor grade (p value = 0.444) and TNM stage (p value = 0.911). A statistically significant difference was noted in the EGFR and β-catenin immunoexpression (p = 0.0001). EGFR and β-catenin expression was observed in 50% and 65% of cases, respectively. EGFR and β-catenin expression was not associated with histological tumor grade and TNM stage of the tumor. In the present study, EGFR expression was significantly associated with β-catenin immunoexpression.

Survival and analysis of prognostic factors for primary malignant cardiac tumors based on the SEER database

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to use the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to evaluate the survival rate of primary malignant cardiac tumors (PMCTs), assess the risk factors affecting survival, and calculate the number of PMCT cases in recent years.

METHODS

SEER 22 registries were used to calculate the number of cases PMCT. Data on age, sex, race, marital status, tumor size, the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, lymph node involvement, metastasis, treatment, and survival were collected to analyze the survival and prognostic factors of SEER 17 registries. Using the Kaplan-Meier estimation method, a survival curve was obtained according to the influencing factors, and a multivariable Cox regression model was established.

RESULTS

In recent years, the average annual number of PMCT cases was 20.56 ± 7.12, significantly higher than the average before 2004 (P = 0.015; 95% CI 1.14-8.98). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 45.6%, 18.8%, and 11.2%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that age (risk ratio [HR], 2.047; 95% CI 1.381-3.034), AJCC stage III (HR, 1.786; 95% CI 1.123-2.839), AJCC staging with distant metastasis (HR, 2.666; 95% CI 1.509-4.709), no chemotherapy (HR, 2.011; 95% CI 1.561-2.590), and tumor size larger than 99 mm (HR, 1.766; 95% CI 1.132-2.756) were independent risk factors for poor prognosis. Only age over 76 years and distant metastasis were independent risk factors for prognosis in the chemotherapy group.

CONCLUSION

In recent years, the annual number of patients with PMCT has increased significantly. Due to developments in chemotherapy, we should re-evaluate the traditional tumor staging and prognostic risk indicators to improve clinical applications.

Prognostic nomogram for colorectal cancer patients with multi-organ metastases: a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program database analysis

BACKGROUND

A nomogram that integrates risk models and clinical characteristics can accurately predict the prognosis of individual patients. We aimed to identify the prognostic factors and establish nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS) in patients with multi-organ metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC).

METHODS

Demographic and clinical information on multi-organ metastases from 2010 to 2019 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors that were used to develop nomograms to predict CSS and OS, and to assess the concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curve.

RESULTS

The patients were randomly assigned to the training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio. A Cox proportional hazards model was conducted for CRC patients to identify independent prognostic factors, including age, sex, tumor size, metastases, degree of differentiation, stage T, stage N, primary and metastasis surgery. The competing risk models employed by Fine and Gray were used to identify the risk factors for CRC. Death from other causes was treated as a competing event, and Cox models were used to identify the factors for death to identify the independent factors of CSS. By incorporating the corresponding independent prognostic factors, we established prognostic nomograms for OS and CSS. Finally, we used the C-index, ROC curve, and calibration plots to assess the utility of the nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the SEER database, we constructed a predictive model for CRC patients with multi-organ metastases. Nomograms provide clinicians with 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS predictions for CRC, allowing them to formulate appropriate treatment plans.

Risk factors for postoperative recurrence in patients with stage II colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Recurrences are the main reasons for unfavorable outcomes for patients with stage II colorectal cancer (CRC). To obtain a clear understanding of the high-risk factors, further investigation is warranted. The present study aimed to analyze the risk factors associated with postoperative recurrence in patients with stage II CRC.

METHODS

Eligible patients with pathologically confirmed stage II CRC were enrolled in the study retrospectively based on a prospectively maintained database from April 2008 to March 2019. The Kaplan-Meier method were used to calculate the overall survival (OS) rate and the cumulative recurrence rate. Univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for recurrence.

RESULTS

There were 2515 patients included, of whom 233 (9.3%) developed local or distant recurrence. Recurrence was associated with a significantly worse 5-year OS (45.4% vs. 95.5%, p < 0.0001). The 5-year cumulative recurrence rate was 13.0% in patients with stage II CRC. On multivariable Cox analysis, tumor size (Hazard Ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 1.79[1.38, 2.33]), preoperative carbohydrate antigen (CA) 125 level (HR [95% CI] = 1.78[1.17, 2.70]), preoperative CA 199 level (HR [95% CI] = 1.56[1.09, 2.22]), and ulcerating tumor (HR [95% CI] = 1.61[1.19, 2.17]) were found to be associated with postoperative recurrence. Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with a lower cumulative recurrence rate in patients with these risk factors (p = 0.00096).

CONCLUSION

The tumor diameter, preoperative CA125 level, preoperative CA199 level, and an ulcerative tumor can predict postoperative recurrence in patients with stage II CRC, and postoperative chemotherapy could reduce the cumulative recurrence rate in patients with these high-risk factors.

Prognostic Factors Among Colonic Adenocarcinomas Invading Into the Muscularis Propria

Depth of invasion through the intestinal wall, categorized as primary tumor stage (pT), is an important prognostic factor in colorectal cancer. However, additional variables that may affect clinical behavior among tumors involving the muscularis propria (pT2) have not been examined at length. We evaluated 109 patients with pT2 colonic adenocarcinomas (median age: 71 y, interquartile range: 59 to 79 y) along various clinicopathologic parameters, including invasion depth, regional lymph node involvement, and disease progression after resection. Tumors extending to the outer muscularis propria (termed pT2b) were associated in multivariate analysis with older patient age (P=0.04), larger tumor size (P<0.001), higher likelihood of lymphovascular invasion (LVI; P=0.03) and higher lymph node stage (pN; P=0.04), compared with tumors limited to the inner muscle layer (pT2a), and LVI was the single most important variable predicting regional lymph node metastasis at resection in these tumors (P=0.001). The Kaplan-Meier analysis during a median clinical follow-up of 59.7 months (interquartile range: 31.5 to 91.2) revealed that disease progression was more likely in pT2 tumors that exhibited, at the time of staging: size >2.5 cm (P=0.039), perineural invasion (PNI; P=0.047), high-grade tumor budding (P=0.036), higher pN stage (P=0.002), and distant metastasis (P<0.001). Proportional hazards (Cox) regression identified high-grade tumor budding (P=0.02) as independently predicting shorter progression-free survival in pT2 tumors. Finally, among cases that would not ordinarily be candidates for adjuvant treatment (ie, pT2N0M0), the presence of high-grade tumor budding was significantly associated with disease progression (P=0.04). These data suggest that, during the diagnosis of pT2 tumors, pathologists may wish to pay particular attention and ensure adequate reporting of certain variables such as tumor size, depth of invasion within the muscularis propria (ie, pT2a vs. pT2b), LVI, PNI, and, especially, tumor budding, as these may affect clinical treatment decisions and proper patient prognostication.

Mapping lesion-specific response and progression dynamics and inter-organ variability in metastatic colorectal cancer

Achieving systemic tumor control across metastases is vital for long-term patient survival but remains intractable in many patients. High lesion-level response heterogeneity persists, conferring many dissociated responses across metastatic lesions. Most studies of metastatic disease focus on tumor molecular and cellular features, which are crucial to elucidating the mechanisms underlying lesion-level variability. However, our understanding of lesion-specific heterogeneity on the macroscopic level, such as lesion dynamics in growth, response, and progression during treatment, remains rudimentary. This study investigates lesion-specific response heterogeneity through analyzing 116,542 observations of 40,612 lesions in 4,308 metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients. Despite significant differences in their response and progression dynamics, metastatic lesions converge on four phenotypes that vary with anatomical site. Importantly, we find that organ-level progression sequence is closely associated with patient long-term survival, and that patients with the first lesion progression in the liver often have worse survival. In conclusion, our study provides insights into lesion-specific response and progression heterogeneity in mCRC and creates impetus for metastasis-specific therapeutics.

Construction and validation of nomograms combined with novel machine learning algorithms to predict early death of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical and non-clinical characteristics that may affect the early death rate of patients with metastatic colorectal carcinoma (mCRC) and develop accurate prognostic predictive models for mCRC.

Method

Medical records of 35,639 patients with mCRC diagnosed from 2010 to 2019 were obtained from the SEER database. All the patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort in a ratio of 7:3. X-tile software was utilized to identify the optimal cutoff point for age and tumor size. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine the independent predictors associated with overall early death and cancer-specific early death caused by mCRC. Simultaneously, predictive and dynamic nomograms were constructed. Moreover, logistic regression, random forest, CatBoost, LightGBM, and XGBoost were used to establish machine learning (ML) models. In addition, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) and calibration plots were obtained to estimate the accuracy of the models. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was employed to determine the clinical benefits of ML models.

Results

The optimal cutoff points for age were 58 and 77 years and those for tumor size of 45 and 76. A total of 15 independent risk factors, namely, age, marital status, race, tumor localization, histologic type, grade, N-stage, tumor size, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, and lung metastasis, were significantly associated with the overall early death rate of patients with mCRC and the cancer-specific early death rate of patients with mCRC, following which nomograms were constructed. The ML models revealed that the random forest model accurately predicted outcomes, followed by logistic regression, CatBoost, XGBoost, and LightGBM models. Compared with other algorithms, the random forest model provided more clinical benefits than other models and can be used to make clinical decisions in overall early death and specific early death caused by mCRC.

Conclusion

ML algorithms combined with nomograms may play an important role in distinguishing early deaths owing to mCRC and potentially help clinicians make clinical decisions and follow-up strategies.

Expression of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) in Colorectal Adenoma and Carcinoma in a Tertiary Care Center

INTRODUCTION

 Colorectal cancer is one of the malignancies in which angiogenesis has been implicated and its importance at different stages of malignant disease. Neovascularization begins when the angiogenic switch is turned on and when angiogenesis activators outweigh angiogenic inhibitors. The process of blood vessel formation is regulated through several growth factor systems. The vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) system is one of the important ones and may consequently be a key system in relation to different aspects of colorectal carcinoma treatment. Because of the well-defined steps in its progression (adenoma - Tis - T1 invasive cancer- T2 advanced cancer with metastases), colorectal cancer (CRC) represents a model for investigating the effects of angiogenesis throughout tumor development.  The aim of this study is to determine the role of VEGF expression by immunohistochemistry (IHC) in normal epithelium, dysplasia, carcinoma of colorectal specimens and to correlate the same with tumor grade, stage, nodal status, and metastasis.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study on paraffin blocks of 50 colon cancer specimens, 40 adenoma specimens, and 10 normal colonic mucosa specimens. Immunohistochemical stain for VEGF was done on the sections along with controls. Monoclonal antibody detected against VEGF antigen was observed in the cytoplasm of the tumor cells and the intensity of VEGF expression in individual tumor cells was scored on a scale of 0 (no staining) to 3 (strong intensity), and the percentage of cells with VEGF staining at each intensity was estimated from 0 to 100. Pearson's Chi-squared test and Mann-Whitney test were used to determine significant clinicopathological differences between VEGF expression in positive and negative tumors.

RESULTS

 In normal epithelium, VEGF immunoreactivity was seen in all 10 cases with high intensity. Among adenomas, VEGF expression was seen in 26 (65%) of the 40 cases. Out of which in tubular adenomas VEGF expression was seen in 13 cases (60%) and negative in eight cases (40%). In tubulo villous adenoma, VEGF expression was seen in nine cases (60%) and negative in six cases (40%). Villous adenomas showed VEGF expression in all four cases (100%). In adenocarcinoma, VEGF expression was seen to be expressed in 42 cases (84%) and negative in eight cases (16%) and expression was higher in low-grade carcinomas (70%) compared to high-grade carcinomas. A significant difference in the expression of VEGF among adenomas and carcinomas was observed with higher intensity present in adenoma when compared to carcinoma.

CONCLUSION

 Expression of VEGF could be considered as an early carcinogenic factor in colorectal carcinomas as it is expressed in higher intensity in the precancerous lesion and low-grade and stage 1 adenocarcinoma. Hence, we infer that early colorectal carcinomas are an important model for targeted therapy with antiangiogenic factors for VEGF.

Association of tumor size in pathological T4 colorectal cancer with desmoplastic reaction and prognosis

Background

Tumor size in pathological T4 (pT4) colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with oncological prognosis; however, its relation to epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT)-associated histology is unclear. We aimed to investigate the association of tumor size with oncological prognosis and EMT.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of 95 patients with primary CRC who underwent radical surgery and were consecutively diagnosed with pT4.

Results

Both 3-y disease-free survival (DFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were significantly higher in patients with tumor size ≥50 mm than in those with tumor size <50 mm (P = .009 and P = .011, respectively). The independent factors identified in the multivariate analysis for DFS were pathological lymph node metastasis (hazard ratio [HR], 2.551; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.031-6.315; P = .043), distant metastasis (HR, 2.511; 95% CI, 1.140-5.532; P = .022), tumor size (HR, 0.462; 95% CI, 0.234-0.913; P = .026), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 0.357; 95% CI, 0.166-0.766; P = .008). The independent factors identified in multivariate analysis for CSS were tumor location (HR, 10.867; 95% CI, 2.539-45.518; P = .001) and tumor size (HR, 0.067; 95% CI, 0.014-0.321; P < .001). In pT4 CRC, smaller tumor size was associated with nonmature desmoplastic reaction and EMT-related histology.

Conclusions

Tumor size ≥50 mm was associated with a better DFS and CSS than that of <50 mm, in patients with pT4 CRC. Smaller tumor size with advanced invasion likely reflects a more biologically aggressive phenotype in pT4 CRC.

Nomogram to predict permanent stoma in rectal cancer patients after sphincter-saving surgery

BACKGROUND

Approximately 20 percent of patients with a tumour localized in the low rectum still encounter the possibility of requiring permanent stoma (PS), which can cause drastic changes in lifestyle and physical perceptions.

AIM

To determine the risk factors for PS and to develop a prediction model to predict the probability of PS in rectal cancer patients after sphincter-saving surgery.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 421 rectal cancer patients who underwent radical surgery at Taipei Medical University Hospital between January 2012 and December 2020 was included in this study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors for PS. A nomogram was developed according to the independent risk factors obtained in the multivariate analysis. The performance of the nomogram was assessed using a receiver operating characteristic curve and a calibration curve.

RESULTS

The PS rate after sphincter-saving surgery was 15.1% (59/391) in our study after a median follow-up of 47.3 mo (range 7–114 mo). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that local recurrence, perirectal abscess, anastomosis site stenosis, perineural invasion, tumor size and operative time were independent risk factors for PS. These identified risk factors were incorporated into the nomogram, and the concordance index of this model was 0.903 (95%CI: 0.851-0.955). According to the calibration curves, the nomogram represents a perfect prediction model.

CONCLUSION

Several risk factors for PS after sphincter-saving surgery were identified. Our nomogram exhibited perfect predictive ability and will improve a physician’s ability to communicate the benefits and risks of various treatment options in shared decision making.

Predictive Significance of Tumour Size in Patients Undergoing Curative Surgery for Colorectal Cancer: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objectives To evaluate the predictive significance of tumour size in patients undergoing curative surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods All patients undergoing curative surgery for colon or rectum cancer performed by a single colorectal surgeon between January 2013 and January 2020 were considered eligible for inclusion. Linear and binary logistic regression analyses were modelled to assess whether colonic or rectal tumour size could predict R0 resection, specimen length, number of harvested and positive lymph nodes, lymphocytic infiltration, venous invasion, and overall survival. Results A total of 192 patients were eligible for inclusion. In patients with colon cancer, tumour size was the independent predictor of the number of harvested lymph nodes (P<0.001), the number of positive lymph nodes (P=0.001), and lymphocytic infiltration (P=0.009). However, it did not predict R0 resection (P=0.563), specimen length (P=0.111), specimen length >120 mm (P=0.186), >12 harvested lymph nodes (P=0.145), venous invasion (P=0.103), and five-year overall survival (P=0.543). In patients with rectal cancer, tumour size was the independent predictor of the number of harvested lymph nodes (P<0.001) and the number of positive lymph nodes (P<0.001). However, it did not predict R0 resection (P=0.108), specimen length (P=0.774), specimen length >120 mm (P=0.405), >12 harvested lymph nodes (P= 0.069), lymphocytic infiltration (P=0.912), venous invasion (P= 0.105), and five-year overall survival (P=0.413). Conclusions The results of the current study suggest that tumour size on its own may not have a significant predictive value in oncological or survival outcomes in patients undergoing curative surgery for colon or rectum cancer.

Evaluating the value of tumor length times width in colorectal adenocarcinoma with different tumor locations

The T classification, which reflects the vertical growth pattern of the tumor, is one of the most important prognostic factors in colorectal cancer. We aimed to investigate the prognostic value of tumor length and width in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). A total of 259 patients with stage I-III CRC who underwent curative resection were reevaluated according to tumor location. One-way ANOVA analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between the tumor length times width (TLTW) and clinical parameters. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to analyze the potential prognostic factors affecting overall survival (OS) of patients with stage I-III CRC. In the entire cohort, the TLTW was analyzed as a continuous variable. The results suggested that TLTW (P = .003) and tumor location (P = .04) could be independent prognostic factors for patients with CRC. In addition, TLTW had an intimate relationship with tumor location (P < 0.001) and differentiation (P = .003). The mean TLTW of the right colon was significantly larger than mean TLTW of the left colon and rectal cancers. However, the mean TLTW of the left colon cancer was similar to that of the rectal cancer TLTW (P > 0.05, not shown). Subgroup analysis of TLTW according to tumor location suggested that TLTW was an independent prognostic factor for patients with right colon cancer (RCC) (P = .007) rather than left colon cancer (LCC) (P = .49) or rectal cancer (P = .16). Kaplan-Meier (K-M) analysis based on tumor location suggested that the survival rate of RCC patients had a distinctly higher trend rate than LCC patients and RECC patients in the long-term rather than in the short-term. TLTW is closely associated with tumor location in CRC. In addition, TLTW may be an independent prognostic factor for patients with RCC.

Negative Impact of COVID-19 Associated Health System Shutdown on Patients Diagnosed With Colorectal Cancer: A Retrospective Study From a Large Tertiary Center in Ontario, Canada

Background

In March 2020, a directive to halt all elective and non-urgent procedures was issued in Ontario, Canada because of COVID-19. The directive caused a temporary slowdown of screening programs including surveillance colonoscopies for colorectal cancer (CRC). Our goal was to determine if there was a difference in patient and tumour characteristics between CRC patients treated surgically prior to the COVID-19 directive compared to CRC patients treated after the slowdown.

Methods

CRC resections collected within the Champlain catchment area of eastern Ontario in the 6 months prior to COVID-19 (August 1, 2019-January 31, 2020) were compared to CRC resections collected in the 6 months post-COVID-19 slowdown (August 1, 2020-January 31, 2021). Clinical (e.g., gender, patient age, tumour site, and clinical presentation) and pathological (tumour size, tumour stage, nodal stage, and lymphovascular invasion) features were evaluated using chi-square tests, T-tests, and Mann-Whitney tests where appropriate.

Results

Three hundred and thirty-eight CRC specimens were identified (173 pre-COVID-19, 165 post-COVID-19 slowdown). CRC patients treated surgically post-COVID-19 slowdown had larger tumours (44 mm vs. 35 mm; P = 0.0048) and were more likely to have presented emergently (24% vs. 10%; P < 0.001). Although there was a trend towards higher tumour stage, nodal stage, and clinical stage, these differences did not reach statistical significance. Other demographic and pathologic variables including patient gender, age, and tumour site were similar between the two cohorts.

Interpretation

The COVID-19 slowdown resulted in a shift in the severity of disease experienced by CRC patients in Ontario. Pandemic planning in the future should consider the long-term consequences to cancer diagnosis and management.

A New Nomogram for Predicting the Postoperative Overall Survival in Patients with Middle-Aged and Elderly Rectal Cancer: A Single Center Retrospective Study in Chinese Population

Purpose

Patients with middle-aged and elderly rectal cancer (MERC) usually have poor prognosis after surgery. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to achieve individualized prediction of overall survival (OS) in patients with MERC and to guide follow-up and subsequent diagnosis and treatment plans.

Patients and Methods

A total of 349 patients were randomly assigned to the training and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed using the results of univariate Cox regression analysis to confirm independent prognostic factors of OS. Thereafter, the nomogram was built using the “rms” package. Subsequently, discriminative ability and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and the area under the ROC curves (AUC) were compared between the nomogram and the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (8th edition). Finally, we established a predictive model to assess the survival benefit of patients with MERC by calculating nomogram scores for each patient.

Results

Six variables were identified as independent prognostic factors and included in the nomogram: smoking history, family history, hematochezia, tumor size, N stage, and M stage. Based on these factors, we successfully constructed a nomogram and evaluated its discriminative and predictive abilities using ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA. ROC curves, IDI, and NRI showed that the nomogram had outstanding clinical utility compared with the TNM staging system (8th edition) for OS prediction. The predictive model successfully distinguished between high-, medium-, and low-risk MERC patients.

Conclusion

Our nomogram provided a more satisfactory survival prediction ability than the TNM staging system (8th edition) for MERC patients. In addition, the nomogram was able to accurately categorize patients into different risk groups after surgery.

The prognostic role of tumor size in stage T1 gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

The purpose was to assess the contribution of tumor size to the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer.

METHODS

Patient data were sourced from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (SEER) database. Cox proportional risk regression was performed to determine the prognostic role of tumor size. Kaplan-Meier curves were conducted to calculate survival curves. Consistency index (c-index) and subject exercise curve (ROC) were utilized to assess the predictive ability of each factor on the prognosis of gastric cancer.

RESULTS

Tumor size is preferable to other widely accepted prognostic clinical features in forecasting the survival of patients with gastric cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The discriminatory ability of tumor size at T1 stage is superior to many other clinical prognostic factors.

Current Perspectives on the Importance of Pathological Features in Prognostication and Guidance of Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Colon Cancer

There is not a clear consensus on which pathological features and biomarkers are important in guiding prognosis and adjuvant therapy in colon cancer. The Pathology in Colon Cancer, Prognosis and Uptake of Adjuvant Therapy (PiCC UP) Australia and New Zealand questionnaire was distributed to colorectal surgeons, medical oncologists and pathologists after institutional board approval. The aim of this study was to understand current specialist attitudes towards pathological features in the prognostication of colon cancer and adjuvant therapy in stage II disease. A 5-scale Likert score was used to assess attitudes towards 23 pathological features for prognosis and 18 features for adjuvant therapy. Data were analysed using a rating scale and graded response model in item response theory (IRT) on STATA (Stata MP, version 15; StataCorp LP). One hundred and sixty-four specialists (45 oncologists, 86 surgeons and 33 pathologists) participated. Based on IRT modelling, the most important pathological features for prognosis in colon cancer were distant metastases, lymph node metastases and liver metastases. Other features seen as important were tumour rupture, involved margin, radial margin, CRM, lymphovascular invasion and grade of differentiation. Size of tumour, location, lymph node ratio and EGFR status were considered less important. The most important features in decision making for adjuvant therapy in stage II colon cancer were tumour rupture, lymphovascular invasion and microsatellite instability. BRAF status, size of tumour, location, tumour budding and tumour infiltrating lymphocytes were factored as lesser importance. Biomarkers such as CDX2, EGFR, KRAS and BRAF status present areas for further research to improve precision oncology. This study provides the most current status on the importance of pathological features in prognostication and recommendations for adjuvant therapy in Australia and New Zealand. Results of this nationwide study may be useful to help in guiding prognosis and adjuvant treatment in colon cancer.

Predictive and Prognostic Effects of Primary Tumor Size on Colorectal Cancer Survival

Background

Pathologic staging is crucial in colorectal cancer (CRC). Unlike the majority of solid tumors, the current staging model does not use tumor size as a criterion. We evaluated the predictive and prognostic impact of primary tumor size on all stages of CRC.

Methods

Using the National Cancer Database (NCDB), we conducted an analysis of CRC patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 who underwent resection of their primary cancer. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify predictive and prognostic factors, Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards models for association between tumor size and survival.

Results

About 61,000 patients met the inclusion criteria. Median age was 63 years and majority of the tumors were colon primary (82.7%). AJCC stage distribution was: I - 20.1%; II - 32.1%; III - 34.7% and IV - 13.1%. The prognostic impact of tumor size was strongly associated with survival in stage III disease. Compared to patients with tumors <2cm; those with 2-5cm (HR 1.33; 1.19-1.49; p<0.001), 5-10cm (HR 1.51 (1.34-1.70; p<0.001) and >10cm (HR 1.95 (1.65-2.31; p<0.001) had worse survival independent of other variables. Stage II treated without adjuvant chemotherapy had comparable survival outcomes (HR 1.09; 0.97-1.523; p=0.148) with stage III patients who did, while Stage II patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy did much better than both groups (HR 0.76; 0.67-0.86; p<0.001). Stage III patients who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy had the worst outcomes among the non-metastatic disease subgroups (HR 2.66; 2.48-2.86; p<0.001). Larger tumors were associated with advanced stage, MSI high, non-rectal primary and positive resection margins.

Conclusions

Further studies are needed to clarify the role of tumor size in prognostic staging models, and how to incorporate it into therapy decisions.

Pathological Features and Prognostication in Colorectal Cancer

The prognostication of colorectal cancer (CRC) has traditionally relied on staging as defined by the Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging classifications. However, clinically, there appears to be differences in survival patterns independent of stage, suggesting a complex interaction of stage, pathological features, and biomarkers playing a role in guiding prognosis, risk stratification, and guiding neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapies. Histological features such as tumour budding, perineural invasion, apical lymph node involvement, lymph node yield, lymph node ratio, and molecular features such as MSI, KRAS, BRAF, and CDX2 may assist in prognostication and optimising adjuvant treatment. This study provides a comprehensive review of the pathological features and biomarkers that are important in the prognostication and treatment of CRC. We review the importance of pathological features and biomarkers that may be important in colorectal cancer based on the current evidence in the literature.

Nomogram to Predict the Occurrence and Prognosis of Distant Metastasis in T1N0 Colon Cancer: A SEER Data-Based Study

Purpose

Distant metastasis (DM) is relatively rare in T1 colon cancer (CC) patients, especially in those with negative lymph node metastasis. The aim of this study was to explore the main clinical factors and build nomogram for predicting the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 colon cancer patients.

Methods

Patients with T1N0 stage CC were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database. All patients were divided into development and validation cohorts with the 3:1 ratio. Logistic regressions were performed to analyze the clinical risk factors for DM. Cox regression model was used to identify potential prognostic factors for patients with DM. The performance of nomogram was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analyses (DCAs). Based on cancer-specific survival (CSS), Kaplan-Meier curves were generated and analyzed using Log rank tests.

Results

A total of 6770 patients were enrolled in this study, including 428 patients (6.3%) with DM. Age, size, grade, CEA were independent risk factors associated with DM. Age, grade, CEA, surgery and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for CSS. Nomograms were applied and C-index, calibration curves, ROC curves and DCA curves proved good discrimination, calibration and clinical practicability of the nomogram in predicting the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 CC patients. In the DM nomogram, the AUCs for development and validation cohort were 0.901 (95% CI = 0.879-0.922) and 0.899 (95% CI=0.865-0.940), respectively. The calibration curves (development cohort: S: p = 0.712; validation cohort: S: p = 0.681) showed the relatively satisfactory prediction accuracy. Similarly, the AUCs of the nomogram at 1-, 2-, and 3-year were 0.763 (95% CI=0.744-0.782), 0.794 (95% CI=0.775-0.813), and 0.822 (95% CI=0.803-0.841) for the development cohort, and 0.785 (95% CI=0.754-0.816), 0.748 (95% CI=0.717-0.779) and 0.896 (95% CI=0.865-0.927) for the validation cohort in the CSS nomogram. The C-indices of the development and validation cohort were 0.718 (95% CI=0.639-0.737) and 0.712 (95% CI=0.681-0.743).

Conclusion

The population-based nomogram could help clinicians predict the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 CC patients and provide a reference to perform appropriate metastatic screening plans and rational therapeutic options for the special population.

Pathology and Prognosis of Colonic Adenocarcinomas With Intermediate Primary Tumor Stage Between pT2 and pT3

CONTEXT.—

Primary tumor stage (pT) is an important prognostic indicator in colonic adenocarcinomas; however, cases that have no muscle fibers beyond the advancing tumor edge but also show no extension beyond the apparent outer border of muscularis propria (termed pT2int), have not been previously studied.

OBJECTIVE.—

To address the clinicopathologic characteristics and prognosis of pT2int tumors.

DESIGN.—

We recharacterized 168 colon carcinomas and compared pT2int cases to bona fide pT2 and pT3 tumors.

RESULTS.—

In side-by-side analysis, 21 pT2int cases diverged from 29 pT2 tumors only in terms of larger size (P = .03), but they were less likely to show high-grade (P = .03), lymphovascular (P < .001), and extramural venous invasion (P = .04); discontinuous tumor deposits (P = .02); lymph node involvement (P = .001); and advanced stage (P = .001), compared with 118 pT3 tumors. Combining pT2int with pT2 cases (versus pT3) was a better independent predictor of negative lymph nodes in multivariate analysis (P = .04; odds ratio [OR], 3.96; CI, 1.09-14.42) and absent distant metastasis in univariate analysis (P = .04), compared with sorting pT2int with pT3 cases (versus pT2). Proportional hazards regression showed that pT2 and pT2int cases together were associated with better disease-free survival compared with pT3 tumors (P = .04; OR, 3.65; CI, 1.05-12.70). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that when pT2int were grouped with pT2 tumors, they were significantly less likely to show disease progression compared with pT3 (P = .002; log-rank test) and showed a trend toward better disease-specific survival (P = .06), during a mean patient follow-up of 44.9 months.

CONCLUSIONS.—

These data support the conclusion that pT2int carcinomas have clinicopathologic characteristics and are associated with patient outcomes more closely aligned with pT2 rather than pT3 tumors.

Assessment of prognostic factors in long-term survival of male and female patients with colorectal cancer using non-mixture cure model based on the Weibull distribution

OBJECTIVE

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is known as one of the malignant form of cells growing in the inner lining of colon and rectum which could seriously affect the cure rate of patients. We aimed to evaluate the effect of prognostic factors on cure fraction of CRC patients.

METHODS

A total of 1043 CRC patients were included to the study from December 2001 to January 2007 at the Research Center of Gastroenterology and Liver Disease in Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. Patients' information was extracted from their medical records, then they were followed to identify their death status via phone-call. Weibull non-mixture cure model was used to evaluate the effect of the risk factors on cure fraction of CRC patients.

RESULTS

The five-years survival rate was 0.66 (males: 0.64 and female: 0.69). The median survival time for non-cured CRC patients were 3.45 years (males: 3.46; females = 3.45 years). In the single Weibull model, BMI≥30 (OR = 4.61, p-value = 0.033), poorly differentiated tumor grade (OR = 0.36, p-value = 0.036), tumor size≥25 mm (OR = 0.22, p-value = 0.046), and N1-stage (OR = 0.42, p-value = 0.005) had significant effect on females' cure fraction. Also, cure fraction of male CRC patients significantly affected by BMI (levels:25.0-29.9-OR = 12.13-p-value<0.001; ≥30-OR = 7.00-p-value = 0.017), T1-stage (OR = 0.52, p-value = 0.021), M1-stage (OR = 0.45, p-value = 0.007), IV-staging (OR = 0.36, p-value = 0.041) and IBD (OR = 0.26, p-value = 0.017). In multiple Weibull model, females were associated with tumor size≥25 mm (OR = 0.20, p-value = 0.044) and N1-stage (OR = 0.45, p-value = 0.013) and males were affected by M1-stage (OR = 0.41, p-value = 0.011) and IBD (OR = 0.20, p-value = 0.022).The cure fraction of males and females CRC patients was 64% and 69%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic factors for cure fraction of patients with CRC may be different among males and females. Further multicenter studies are required to assess the effect of common prognostic factors between males and females.

Development of a Novel Prognostic Model for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Early Colorectal Cancer: Analysis Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database

Background

Identification of a simplified prediction model for lymph node metastasis (LNM) for patients with early colorectal cancer (CRC) is urgently needed to determine treatment and follow-up strategies. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to develop an accurate predictive model for LNM in early CRC.

Methods

We analyzed data from the 2004-2016 Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database to develop and validate prediction models for LNM. Seven models, namely, logistic regression, XGBoost, k-nearest neighbors, classification and regression trees model, support vector machines, neural network, and random forest (RF) models, were used.

Results

A total of 26,733 patients with a diagnosis of early CRC (T1) were analyzed. The models included 8 independent prognostic variables; age at diagnosis, sex, race, primary site, histologic type, tumor grade, and, tumor size. LNM was significantly more frequent in patients with larger tumors, women, younger patients, and patients with more poorly differentiated tumor. The RF model showed the best predictive performance in comparison to the other method, achieving an accuracy of 96.0%, a sensitivity of 99.7%, a specificity of 92.9%, and an area under the curve of 0.991. Tumor size is the most important features in predicting LNM in early CRC.

Conclusion

We established a simplified reproducible predictive model for LNM in early CRC that could be used to guide treatment decisions. These findings warrant further confirmation in large prospective clinical trials.

The correlation between tumor size, lymph node status, distant metastases and mortality in rectal cancer patients without neoadjuvant therapy

Tumor size has an effect on decision making for the treatment rectal cancer. Transanal local excision can be selected to remove rectal cancer with favorable histopathological features. It is generally recognized that the risk of lymph node involvement and distant metastases increases as the tumor enlarges. However, the majority of the studies classified patients into two groups using concrete value as a cutoff point. The coarse classification was not sufficient to reveal a correlation between the tumor size and lymph node status or distant metastases across the full range of sizes examined. Between 1988 and 2015, a total of 77,746 patients were diagnosed with first primary rectal cancer who had not received neoadjuvant therapy. These subjects were identified using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The association between tumor size, lymph node status, distant metastases and cancer-specific mortality was investigated. Tumor size was examined as a continuous (1-30 mm) and categorical variable (11 size groups; 10-mm intervals). A non-linear correlation between increasing tumor size and the prevalence of lymph node involvement was observed, while a near-positive correlation between tumor size and distant metastases was presented. In addition, the 5-year and 10-year rates of rectal cancer-specific mortality were increased as the tumor enlarged. For small tumors (under 30 mm), a positive correlation was noted between tumor size and lymph node involvement. The clinical value of the tumor size should be reevaluated by exact classification.

Tumour size and overall survival among surgically treated patients with non-metastatic colon cancer in the U.S. Military Health System

AIM

Larger tumour size and lymph node involvement traditionally predict poorer survival in colon cancer patients. However, it has been recently suggested that very small tumours (<5 mm) may be a predictor of poor prognosis in colon cancer patients when lymph nodes are involved. This study investigated whether node-positive colon cancer patients with small tumours had worse survival compared to those with larger tumours in the Department of Defense's (DoD) Military Health System (MHS), a universal health care system.

METHODS

Surgically treated colon cancer patients were identified from the DoD's Automated Central Tumour Registry (ACTUR). These patients were diagnosed with Stage I-III colon cancer between 1989 and 2010, had one or more lymph nodes examined, did not receive pre-operative radiotherapy and were followed through 2013 to determine vital status. Multivariable Cox models were used to examine survival differences according to tumour size, and data were stratified by lymph node status and age.

RESULTS

There were no differences in overall survival according to tumour size in the study population. These findings remained similar in analyses stratified by lymph node status and age.

CONCLUSION

In a universal healthcare system, small tumour size is not associated with worse prognosis in node-positive colon cancer patients.

Association of tumor size with prognosis in colon cancer: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database analysis

BACKGROUND

Thus far, the association of tumor size with prognosis in colon cancer has not been considered and has remained unclear. This study, therefore, aimed to investigate the association between tumor size as a continuous variable and prognosis in colon cancer using Cox models with restricted cubic splines.

METHODS

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, we selected 128,369 patients with colon cancer who underwent surgery. Overall survival and colon cancer-specific survival were separately analyzed, and tumor size was separately evaluated as a continuous variable and a categorical variable. To investigate the relationship after adjusting for covariates, we used the proportional hazards models. The restricted cubic splines model was used to determine the presence of nonlinear or linear association and flexibly visualize the association.

RESULTS

The adjusted covariate model showed that the hazard ratio of colon cancer rapidly increased with a tumor size of 4 cm and slowly increased with a tumor size larger than 4 cm. When tumor size was analyzed as a categorical variable, the multivariable-adjusted model demonstrated a nearly linear relationship between tumor size and hazard ratio regardless of overall survival or cancer-specific survival, and the hazard ratio of group 5 (4.1-5 cm) was nearly a turning point. Subgroup analysis with respect to lymph node metastasis showed that the relationship between tumor size and prognosis in colon cancer was evident in lymph node metastasis.

CONCLUSION

There was a strong negative relationship between tumor size and prognosis in colon cancer. However, when tumor size was less than 4 cm, the relationship between tumor size and prognosis was steep compared with that when tumor size was larger than 4 cm, especially in lymph node metastasis.

Establishment of prognostic nomogram for elderly colorectal cancer patients: a SEER database analysis

Background

This study aimed to establish nomogram models of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly colorectal cancer (ECRC) patients (Age ≥ 70).

Methods

The clinical variables of patients confirmed as ECRC between 2004 and 2016 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed, followed by the construction of nomograms in OS and CSS.

Results

A total of 44,761 cases were finally included in this study. Both C-index and calibration plots indicated noticeable performance of newly established nomograms. Moreover, nomograms also showed higher outcomes of decision curve analysis (DCA) and the area under the curve (AUC) compared to American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage and SEER stage.

Conclusions

This study established nomograms of elderly colorectal cancer patients with distinct clinical values compared to AJCC TNM and SEER stages regarding both OS and CSS.

Characteristics of minute T1 colorectal cancer in relevance to pathology and treatment

Purpose

Minute T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) lesions (≤5 mm) are rare; however, little is known about their characteristics and aggressiveness. In this study, we evaluated the characteristics of minute T1 CRC in relevance to pathology and treatment.

Methods

This retrospective study included 849 patients with T1 CRC endoscopically or surgically treated between January 2001 and December 2016. The patients were stratified into 4 groups according to tumor size; minute group (≤5 mm), small group (6–10 mm), medium group (11–20 mm), and large group (≥21 mm). Clinicopathological variables were evaluated with respect to tumor size.

Results

The incidence of the minute T1 CRC was 2.4% (20 of 849). Minute T1 CRC was significantly associated with flat type (minute, 25%; small, 12.6%; medium, 8.8%; large, 12.6%; P = 0.016), right-sided cancer (30%, 15.4%, 15.4%, 15.1%, P = 0.002) and the absence of background adenoma (BGA) (50%, 40.7%, 32.8%, 18.1%, P < 0.001). In patients who underwent surgery, lymph node metastasis (LNM) was significantly higher in the minute group (36.4%, 15.9%, 15.7%, 9.2%, P = 0.029).

Conclusion

Minute T1 CRC is significantly associated with flat type, right-sided cancers, as well as with the absence of BGA and LNM. These results suggested the minute T1 CRC lesions are often aggressive and are likely to be missed during colonoscopy.

Neoadjuvant radiotherapy improves overall survival for T3/4N+M0 rectal cancer patients: a population-based study of 20300 patients

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant radiotherapy (RT) has been shown to improve local control; however, whether it can improve overall survival (OS) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients remains controversial. We therefore aimed to examine the benefits of surgery alone, neoadjuvant radiotherapy (RT), adjuvant RT, and surgery plus chemotherapy in stage II (T3/4N0M0) and III (any T and N + M0) on the OS of rectal cancer patients.

METHODS

Date from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database diagnosed between 2004 and 2016 were used. Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to compare patient prognoses across different treatment modalities. Cox hazard regression analysis were used to identify independent predictors of OS.

RESULTS

For stage T3/4N0M0 patients, neoadjuvant RT, adjuvant RT, and surgery plus chemotherapy resulted in similar OS (all p > 0.05; mean survival, 115.89 months (M), 111.97 M, and 117.22 M, respectively), with better OS observed in these patients than in patients who underwent surgery alone (all p < 0.001, mean survival, 88.96 M). For stage T1/2N + M0 patients, neoadjuvant RT, adjuvant RT, and surgery plus chemotherapy resulted in similar OS (all p > 0.05; mean survival, 121.50 M, 124.25 M, and 121.20 M, respectively), with better OS observed in these patients than in patients who underwent surgery alone (all p < 0.001, mean survival 83.81 M). For stage T3/4N + M0 patients, neoadjuvant RT (HR = 0.436; 95% CI, 0.396~0.478; p < 0.001) resulted in significantly longer OS than adjuvant RT and surgery plus chemotherapy (mean survival, 104.47 M, 93.94 M, and 93.62 M, respectively), with better OS observed in these patients than in patients who underwent surgery alone (all p < 0.001, mean survival 54.87 M). Older age (> 60 years), black race, unmarried status, high tumour grade, and tumour size > 5 cm were all associated with a poor prognosis (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Neoadjuvant RT, adjuvant RT, and surgery plus chemotherapy results in better OS than surgery alone in LARC patients. Neoadjuvant RT has the potential to be highly recommended over adjuvant RT and surgery plus chemotherapy for T3/4N + M0 patients; however, it showed no OS advantage over adjuvant RT or surgery plus chemotherapy for T3/4N0M0 and T1/2N + M0 patients.

A semi-automated technique for adenoma quantification in the ApcMin mouse using FeatureCounter

Colorectal cancer is a major contributor to death and disease worldwide. The Apc^Min mouse is a widely used model of intestinal neoplasia, as it carries a mutation also found in human colorectal cancers. However, the method most commonly used to quantify tumour burden in these mice is manual adenoma counting, which is time consuming and poorly suited to standardization across different laboratories. We describe a method to produce suitable photographs of the small intestine of Apc^Min mice, process them with an ImageJ macro, FeatureCounter, which automatically locates image features potentially corresponding to adenomas, and a machine learning pipeline to identify and quantify them. Compared to a manual method, the specificity (or True Negative Rate, TNR) and sensitivity (or True Positive Rate, TPR) of this method in detecting adenomas are similarly high at about 80% and 87%, respectively. Importantly, total adenoma area measures derived from the automatically-called tumours were just as capable of distinguishing high-burden from low-burden mice as those established manually. Overall, our strategy is quicker, helps control experimenter bias, and yields a greater wealth of information about each tumour, thus providing a convenient route to getting consistent and reliable results from a study.

IL-36 s in the colorectal cancer: is interleukin 36 good or bad for the development of colorectal cancer?

Background and aims

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major killer. Host immunity is important in tumorigenesis. Direct comparison among IL-36α, IL-36β and IL-36γ in the prognosis of CRC is unclear.

Methods

CRC tissue arrays were generated from colorectostomy samples with TNM stage, invasion depth and the demography of these patients (n = 185). Using immunohistochemistry/histopathology, IL-36α, IL-36β and IL-36γ were determined, in comparison to non-cancer tissues.

Results

A significant association was observed between colonic IL-36α, IL-36β or IL-36γ and the presence of cancer (with all P < 0.0001). Using ROC curve analysis, specificity and sensitivity of IL-36α, IL-36β or IL-36γ were confirmed, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.68, 0.73 and 0.65, respectively. Significant differences in survival were observed between IL-36α^high and IL-36α^low (P = 0.003) or IL-36γ^high and IL-36γ^low (P = 0.03). Survival curves varied significantly when further stratification into sub-groups, on the basis of combined levels of expression of two isotypes of IL-36 was undertaken. A significant difference was observed when levels of IL-36α and IL-36β were combined (P = 0.01), or a combination of IL-36α plus IL-36γ (P = 0.002). The sub-groups with a combination of IL-36α^high plus IL-36β^high, or IL-36α^high plus IL-36γ^low exhibited the longest survival time among CRC patients. In contrast, the sub-groups of IL-36α^low plus IL-36β^high or IL-36α^low plus IL-36γ^high had the shortest overall survival. Using the log-rank test, IL-36α^high expression significantly improved survival in patients with an invasion depth of T4 (P < 0.0001), lymph node metastasis (P = 0.04), TNM III-IV (P = 0.03) or with a right-sided colon tumour (P = 0.02). Similarly, IL-36γ^low expression was significantly associated with improved survival in patients with no lymph node metastasis (P = 0.008), TNM I-II (P = 0.03) or with a left-sided colon tumour (P = 0.05). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that among IL-36α, IL-36β and IL-36γ, only IL-36α (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.16–0.87; P = 0.02) was an independent factor in survival, using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

Conclusion

IL-36α or IL-36γ are reliable biomarkers in predicting the prognosis of CRC during the later or early stages of the disease, respectively. Combining IL-36α plus IL-36γ appears to more accurately predict the postoperative prognosis of CRC patients. Our data may be useful in the management of CRC.

Comparison of risk factors between colon cancer and rectum cancer in a single medical center hospital, Taiwan

INTRODUCTION

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is rapidly increasing in developed countries. In Taiwan, the incidence rate of CRC has increased during the past decade, but the 5-year survival has remained at approximately 63%. In this study, we sought to determine the 5-year survival rate of patients diagnosed with colon and rectum cancer and to determine factors affecting survival.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

All patients from the Taiwan Cancer Database of the medical center hospital in North Taiwan between 2007 and 2013 were identified. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier curves, and differences between the curves were analyzed using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to analyze survival by each variable.

RESULTS

A total of 869 patients were included: 554 (63.8%) patients had colon cancer and 315 (36.2%) had rectum cancer. The mean survival time was 71.27 ±1.27 months (colon group: 71.90 ±1.58 months; rectum group: 67.88 ±1.95 months). There was no significant difference (p = 0.493) between patients who had colon or rectum cancer. The forward stepwise Cox regression analysis results indicated that perineural invasion, distant metastasis, age, pathological differentiation grade, and obstruction were statistically significant for patients who had CRC, colon cancer or rectum cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term survival from CRC, colon cancer and rectum cancer remains promising, as 68.66%, 69.11% and 67.90% of patients are alive 5 years after being diagnosed, respectively. Perineural invasion was found to be an important factor related to the survival of patients who have CRC. Thus, early detection of CRC may help improve survival.

The Critical Role of Tumor Size in Predicting Prognosis for T1 Colon Cancer

BACKGROUND

The role of horizontal growth index of tumor size in survival prediction is still underappreciated in colon cancer because of the identification of vertical infiltration index reflected by T stage. We sought to reveal the impact of T stage on the prognostic and predictive value of tumor size in colon cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data of patients with stage I-III colon cancer were extracted from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) and Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center (FUSCC) databases. Harrell's concordance index (c-index) and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were used to analyze the discriminative ability of prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Stratified analyses based on T stage found that the increase of T stage significantly and negatively repressed the effect of tumor size on death and recurrence risk. In addition, tumor size showed the greatest hazard ratio of cancer-specific death and relapse in T1 colon cancer. Even more importantly, the discriminatory ability of tumor size outperformed any other widely accepted prognostic clinical features in predicting cancer-specific survival (SEER: c-index 0.637, area under the ROC [AUC] 0.649; FUSCC: c-index 0.673, AUC 0.686) and disease-free survival (FUSCC: c-index 0.645, AUC 0.656) in T1 stage colon cancer.

CONCLUSION

Tumor size is a critical clinical factor with considerable prognostic and predictive value for T1 colon cancer, and it should be selectively incorporated into the current staging system to facilitate prediction of death and recurrence risk.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

To date, no consensus has been reached about the prognostic and predictive value of tumor size in colon cancer. Although tumor size is an independent prognostic factor for patients with colon cancer, the impact of tumor size on death or recurrence risk decreased notably with the increase of T stage. More importantly, the discriminative ability of tumor size outperformed any other clinical factors including N stage in patients with T1 colon cancer. Therefore, tumor size should be recommended to be incorporated into current staging systems to facilitate prognosis prediction for patients with T1 colon cancer.

Increased cancer-specific mortality of very small size in carcinoembryonic antigen-elevated rectal cancer

Background

The present study aimed to investigate the cause-specific survival (CSS) of very small rectal cancer in the context of preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) elevation.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with node-negative rectal cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from January 2004 to December 2010 meeting the inclusion criteria were identified for this study. The Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted to identify independent factors associated with CSS. Pearson's chi-squared tests and Kaplan-Meier methods were performed.

Results

A total of 8,413 patients were included into our study. Kaplan-Meier analyses showed lower 7-year CSS rate of very small tumors (≤5 mm) compared to those larger than 40 mm (70.4% vs. 76.0%, log-rank P=0.469). Multivariate Cox analyses showed that patients with very small tumor size (≤5 mm) was also associated with a significantly increased risk of cancer-specific mortality compared with those with large tumor size (HR =2.567, 95% CI: 1.285 to 5.130, P=0.008, using ≥41 mm, C+ as a reference).

Conclusions

Very small tumor size in the context of preoperative serum CEA elevation could be a surrogate for biological aggressiveness. Our finding would provide a better understanding of tumor biology for us and elicit more future biological researches.

Cancer recurrence times from a branching process model

As cancer advances, cells often spread from the primary tumor to other parts of the body and form metastases. This is the main cause of cancer related mortality. Here we investigate a conceptually simple model of metastasis formation where metastatic lesions are initiated at a rate which depends on the size of the primary tumor. The evolution of each metastasis is described as an independent branching process. We assume that the primary tumor is resected at a given size and study the earliest time at which any metastasis reaches a minimal detectable size. The parameters of our model are estimated independently for breast, colorectal, headneck, lung and prostate cancers. We use these estimates to compare predictions from our model with values reported in clinical literature. For some cancer types, we find a remarkably wide range of resection sizes such that metastases are very likely to be present, but none of them are detectable. Our model predicts that only very early resections can prevent recurrence, and that small delays in the time of surgery can significantly increase the recurrence probability.

Fibroblast growth factor-10 and epithelial-mesenchymal transition in colorectal cancer

As an inducer of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), fibroblast growth factor-10 (FGF-10) has a role in cell proliferation and differentiation in the embryo in addition to invasion and metastasis during carcinogenesis. In this study, we aimed to investigate the FGF-10 gene expression in tumor tissues based on the pathological feature of tumor related to EMT and metastasis. 62 tumors were obtained from 62 colorectal cancer patients during surgery. The pathological characteristics of the patients were carefully collected and classified by Iran National Tumor Bank. To quantify FGF-10 gene expression, RNA extraction, reverse transcription-PCR and real-time PCR were respectively performed. In addition, three colorectal cancer cell lines including LS174T, SW-948 and SW-480 were collected and cultured for further molecular analysis. Consequently, FGF-10 gene expression showed increased expression level in LS174T and SW-948 while it displayed decreased level in SW-480. Considering the tumor samples, we found an upregulation of FGF-10 gene expression in 52.1 % of all tumors in stage III and only in 9.09 % of all tumors in stage I. Also, there were an upregulation of FGF-10 gene expression in 50 % of all positive lymph invasion patients. Besides, FGF-10 gene upregulation was observed in 50 % of all tumors with a size larger than 5 cm (P value < 0.05) and 69 % of all tumors located in the colon (P value < 0.05). To our knowledge, this is the first time that FGF-10 expression is reported based on pathological features of colorectal cancer.