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Liu J, Hansen A, Varghese BM, Dear K, Tong M, Prescott V, Dolar V, Gourley M, Driscoll T, Zhang Y, Morgan G, Capon A, Bi P. Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high ambient temperature across climate zones: methodological framework with a case study. Int J Epidemiol 2023; 52:783-795. [PMID: 36511334 PMCID: PMC10244055 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyac229] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2022] [Accepted: 11/30/2022] [Indexed: 10/24/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND With high temperature becoming an increasing health risk due to a changing climate, it is important to quantify the scale of the problem. However, estimating the burden of disease (BoD) attributable to high temperature can be challenging due to differences in risk patterns across geographical regions and data accessibility issues. METHODS We present a methodological framework that uses Köppen-Geiger climate zones to refine exposure levels and quantifies the difference between the burden observed due to high temperatures and what would have been observed if the population had been exposed to the theoretical minimum risk exposure distribution (TMRED). Our proposed method aligned with the Australian Burden of Disease Study and included two parts: (i) estimation of the population attributable fractions (PAF); and then (ii) estimation of the BoD attributable to high temperature. We use suicide and self-inflicted injuries in Australia as an example, with most frequent temperatures (MFTs) as the minimum risk exposure threshold (TMRED). RESULTS Our proposed framework to estimate the attributable BoD accounts for the importance of geographical variations of risk estimates between climate zones, and can be modified and adapted to other diseases and contexts that may be affected by high temperatures. CONCLUSIONS As the heat-related BoD may continue to increase in the future, this method is useful in estimating burdens across climate zones. This work may have important implications for preventive health measures, by enhancing the reproducibility and transparency of BoD research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingwen Liu
- School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Alana Hansen
- School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Blesson M Varghese
- School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Keith Dear
- School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Michael Tong
- School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Vanessa Prescott
- Burden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Vergil Dolar
- Burden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Michelle Gourley
- Burden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Timothy Driscoll
- Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Ying Zhang
- Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Geoffrey Morgan
- Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Anthony Capon
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
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Inhaled Corticosteroid (ICS) Use and Invasive Pneumococcal Pneumonia. Ann Am Thorac Soc 2021; 19:327-329. [PMID: 34410899 DOI: 10.1513/annalsats.202103-414rl] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
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