Acute on chronic liver failure: prognostic models and artificial intelligence applications

Predicting the 28-day prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure patients based on machine learning

BACKGROUND

We aimed to establish a prognostic predictive model based on machine learning (ML) methods to predict the 28-day mortality of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients, and to evaluate treatment effectiveness.

METHODS

ACLF patients from six tertiary hospitals were included for analysis. Features for ML models' development were selected by LASSO regression. Models' performance was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy. Shapley additive explanation was used to explain the ML model.

RESULTS

Of the 736 included patients, 587 were assigned to a training set and 149 to an external validation set. Features selected included age, hepatic encephalopathy, total bilirubin, PTA, and creatinine. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model outperformed other ML models in the prognostic prediction of ACLF patients, with the highest AUC and accuracy. Delong's test demonstrated that the XGB model outperformed Child-Pugh score, MELD score, CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C OF, and CLIF-C ACLF. Sequential assessments at baseline, day 3, day 7, and day 14 improved the predictive performance of the XGB-ML model and can help clinicians evaluate the effectiveness of medical treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

We established an XGB-ML model to predict the 28-day mortality of ACLF patients as well as to evaluate the treatment effectiveness.

Prognostic models in end stage liver disease

Cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide, and is associated with significant health care costs. Even if milestones have been recently reached in understanding and managing end-stage liver disease (ESLD), the disease course remains somewhat difficult to prognosticate. These difficulties have already been acknowledged already in the past, when scores instead of single parameters have been proposed as valuable tools for short-term prognosis. These standard scores, like Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, relying on biochemical and clinical parameters, are still widely used in clinical practice to predict short- and medium-term prognosis. The MELD score, which remains an accurate, easy-to-use, objective predictive score, has received significant modifications over time, in order to improve its performance especially in the liver transplant (LT) setting, where it is widely used as prioritization tool. Although many attempts to improve prognostic accuracy have failed because of lack of replicability or poor benefit with the comparator (often the MELD score or its variants), few scores have been recently proposed and validated especially for subgroups of patients with ESLD, as those with acute-on-chronic liver failure. Artificial intelligence will probably help hepatologists in the near future to fill the current gaps in predicting disease course and long-term prognosis of such patients.