Predictive accuracy and usefulness of calibration of the ESC SCORE in Switzerland

Risk estimation for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: considerations for appropriate risk prediction model selection

Cardiovascular diseases remain the number one cause of death globally. Cardiovascular disease risk scores are an integral tool in primary prevention, being used to identify individuals at the highest risk and guide the assignment of preventive interventions. Available risk scores differ substantially in terms of the population sample data sources used for their derivation and, consequently, in the absolute risks they assign to individuals. Differences in cardiovascular disease epidemiology between the populations contributing to the development of risk scores, and the target populations in which they are applied, can result in overestimation or underestimation of cardiovascular disease risks for individuals, and poorly informed clinical decisions. Given the wide plethora of cardiovascular disease risk scores available, identification of an appropriate risk score for a target population can be challenging. This Review provides an up-to-date overview of guideline-recommended cardiovascular disease risk scores from global, regional, and national contexts, evaluates their comparative characteristics and qualities, and provides guidance on selection of an appropriate risk score.

Trends and determinants of prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of dyslipidaemia in canton of Geneva, 2005-2019: Potent statins are underused

We assessed 1) trends in prevalence, awareness, treatment and control rates of dyslipidaemia and associated factors, 2) the effect of statin generation/potency on control levels and 3) the effect of ESC lipid guidelines, on lipid management. Data from multiple cross-sectional, population-based surveys conducted between 2005 and 2019 in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, were used. Prevalence, awareness, treatment and control rates of dyslipidaemia were 46.0% and 34.9% (p < 0.001), 67.0% and 77.3% (p = 0.124), 40.0% and 19.9% (p < 0.001), and 68.0% and 84.0% (p = 0.255), in 2005 and 2019, respectively. After multivariable adjustment, only the decrease in treatment rates was significant. Increasing age, higher BMI, history of hypertension or diabetes were positively associated with prevalence, while female sex was negatively associated. Female sex, history of diabetes or CVD were positively associated with awareness, while increasing age was negatively associated. Increasing age, smoking, higher BMI, history of hypertension, diabetes or CVD were positively associated with treatment, while female sex was negatively associated. Female sex was positively associated with control, while increasing age was negatively associated. Highly potent statins increased from 50.0% to 87.5% and third generation statins from 0% to 47.5% in 2009 and 2015, respectively. Increased statin potency was borderline (p = 0.059) associated with dyslipidaemia control. ESC guidelines had no effect regarding the prescription of more potent or higher generation statins. We conclude that in the canton of Geneva, treatment of diagnosed dyslipidaemia is low, but control is adequate. Women are undertreated but better controlled than men. The most potent hypolipidemic drugs are underused.

Temporal Trends in Low-Dose Aspirin Use (from the CoLaus|PsyCoLaus Study)

Although established in secondary prevention, the use of low-dose aspirin for primary cardiovascular prevention remains uncertain. We assessed the temporal trend of low-dose aspirin use in people at primary and secondary prevention over 14 years. We used data from the population-based CoLaus|PsyCoLaus study. A baseline survey was conducted from 2003 to 2006, involving 6,733 participants. The first and second follow-up investigations were performed from 2009 to 2012 and 2014 to 2017, respectively. Low-dose aspirin use was defined as ≤300 mg/daily oral administration or administration of an anticoagulant for similar indications. For primary prevention analysis, 6,555, 4,695, and 3,893 participants were included in the analysis at baseline, first and second follow-ups, respectively. Overall, low-dose aspirin use doubled between baseline (4.1%) and second follow-up (8.1%). Appropriate use of low-dose aspirin rose from 32% at baseline to 64% at the second follow-up for primary prevention. In secondary prevention, 71.8%, 75.9%, and 71.7% of participants were taking low-dose aspirin at baseline, first, and second follow-up, respectively. On the basis of a population-based cohort, the appropriateness of low-dose aspirin use increased over a 10-year follow-up in primary prevention, but its inappropriate use still concerned 44% of subjects. In secondary prevention, a quarter of individuals were not taking low-dose aspirin which remained stable over the analyzed period.

Association of clinical and genetic risk factors with management of dyslipidaemia: analysis of repeated cross-sectional studies in the general population of Lausanne, Switzerland

OBJECTIVES

To assess the importance of clinical and genetic factors in management of dyslipidaemia in the general population.

DESIGN

Repeated cross-sectional studies (2003-2006; 2009-2012 and 2014-2017) from a population-based cohort.

SETTING

Single centre in Lausanne, Switzerland.

PARTICIPANTS

617 (42.6% women, mean±SD: 61.6±8.5 years), 844 (48.5% women, 64.5±8.8 years) and 798 (50.3% women, 68.1±9.2) participants of the baseline, first and second follow-ups receiving any type of lipid-lowering drug. Participants were excluded if they had missing information regarding lipid levels, covariates or genetic data.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Management of dyslipidaemia was assessed according to European or Swiss guidelines. Genetic risk scores (GRSs) for lipid levels were computed based on the existing literature.

RESULTS

Prevalence of adequately controlled dyslipidaemia was 52%, 45% and 46% at baseline, first and second follow-ups, respectively. On multivariable analysis, when compared with intermediate or low-risk individuals, participants at very high cardiovascular risk had an OR for dyslipidaemia control of 0.11 (95% CI: 0.06 to 0.18), 0.12 (0.08 to 0.19) and 0.38 (0.25 to 0.59) at baseline, first and second follow-ups, respectively. Use of newer generation or higher potency statins was associated with better control: OR of 1.90 (1.18 to 3.05) and 3.62 (1.65 to 7.92) for second and third generations compared with first in the first follow-up, with the corresponding values in the second follow-up being 1.90 (1.08 to 3.36) and 2.18 (1.05 to 4.51). No differences in GRSs were found between controlled and inadequately controlled subjects. Similar findings were obtained using Swiss guidelines.

CONCLUSION

Management of dyslipidaemia is suboptimal in Switzerland. The effectiveness of high potency statins is hampered by low posology. The use of GRSs in the management of dyslipidaemia is not recommended.

Ten-Year Evolution of Statin Eligibility and Use in a Population-Based Cohort

Studies showing that the management of dyslipidemia is suboptimal are hampered by their cross-sectional design or short follow-up. Using recent data from a population-based cohort with a 10-year follow-up, we assessed the use of statins, including their intensity. We used data from the CoLaus|PsyColaus study, involving 4,655 participants at baseline (2003 to 2006) and 3,587 at 10-year follow-up (2014 to 2017). We assessed the cardiovascular risk of participants according to established guidelines from the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and from the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology and estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk using corresponding risk scores, Systemic Coronary Risk Evaluation risk prediction model and Pooled Cohort Equations. We first determined eligibility for statins and adherence to recommendations at 2 time periods. Additionally, we assessed the prevalence of statin users from 2014 to 2017 in persons without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease at baseline and who developed it during the follow-up (secondary prevention). A total of 219 participants developed a first atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease during follow-up. Statin use in eligible subjects was 25.9% and 24.0% from 2003 to 2006 and 35.9% and 26.3% from 2014 to 2017, according to ESC and American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology guidelines, respectively. Per ESC guidelines, only 28.2% of treated persons achieved low-density lipoproteins cholesterol target levels from 2014 to 2017 (15.8% from 2003 to 2006), and women less frequently attained goals. Only 18% of subjects used high-intensity statins from 2014 to 2017, with women less often receiving them (14% vs 22%). In secondary prevention, only 74% of eligible subjects were using statins. In conclusion, based on contemporaneous data, management of dyslipidemia is suboptimal, including in secondary prevention, especially in women who are less frequently treated and, if treated, less frequently receive high-intensity treatment.

Insomnia disorders are associated with increased cardiometabolic disturbances and death risks from cardiovascular diseases in psychiatric patients treated with weight-gain-inducing psychotropic drugs: results from a Swiss cohort

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Insomnia disorders as well as cardiometabolic disorders are highly prevalent in the psychiatric population compared to the general population. We aimed to investigate their association and evolution over time in a Swiss psychiatric cohort.

METHODS

Data for 2861 patients (8954 observations) were obtained from two prospective cohorts (PsyMetab and PsyClin) with metabolic parameters monitored routinely during psychotropic treatment. Insomnia disorders were based on the presence of ICD-10 "F51.0" diagnosis (non-organic insomnia), the prescription of sedatives before bedtime or the discharge letter. Metabolic syndrome was defined using the International Diabetes Federation definition, while the 10-year risk of cardiovascular event or death was assessed using the Framingham Risk Score and the Systematic Coronary Risk Estimation, respectively.

RESULTS

Insomnia disorders were observed in 30% of the cohort, who were older, predominantly female, used more psychotropic drugs carrying risk of high weight gain (olanzapine, clozapine, valproate) and were more prone to suffer from schizoaffective or bipolar disorders. Multivariate analyses showed that patients with high body mass index (OR = 2.02, 95%CI [1.51-2.72] for each ten-kg/m2 increase), central obesity (OR = 2.20, [1.63-2.96]), hypertension (OR = 1.86, [1.23-2.81]), hyperglycemia (OR = 3.70, [2.16-6.33]), high density lipoprotein hypocholesterolemia in women (OR = 1.51, [1.17-1.95]), metabolic syndrome (OR = 1.84, [1.16-2.92]) and higher 10-year risk of death from cardiovascular diseases (OR = 1.34, [1.17-1.53]) were more likely to have insomnia disorders. Time and insomnia disorders were associated with a deterioration of cardiometabolic parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

Insomnia disorders are significantly associated with metabolic worsening and risk of death from cardiovascular diseases in psychiatric patients.

Polypill eligibility and equivalent intake in a Swiss population-based study

The polypill has been advocated for cardiovascular disease (CVD) management. The fraction of the population who could benefit from the polypill in Switzerland is unknown. Assess (1) the prevalence of subjects (a) eligible for the polypill and (b) already taking a polypill equivalent; and (2) the determinants of polypill intake in the first (2009–2012) and second follow-ups (2014–2017) of a population-based prospective study conducted in Lausanne, Switzerland. The first and the second follow-ups included 5038 and 4596 participants aged 40–80 years, respectively. Polypill eligibility was defined as having a high CVD risk as assessed by an absolute CVD risk ≥ 5% with the SCORE equation for Switzerland and/or presenting with CVD. Four polypill equivalents were defined: statin + any antihypertensive with (A) or without (B) aspirin; statin + calcium channel blocker (CCB) (C); and statin + CCB + angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (D). The prevalence of polypill eligibility was 20.6% (95% CI 19.5–21.8) and 27.7% (26.5–29.1) in the first and second follow-up, respectively. However, only around one-third of the eligible 29.5% (95% CI 26.7–32.3) and 30.4% (27.9–33.0) respectively, already took the polypill equivalents. All polypill equivalents were more prevalent among men, elderly and in presence of CVD. After multivariable adjustment, in both periods, male gender was associated with taking polypill equivalent A (OR: 1.93; 95% CI 1.45–2.55 and OR: 1.67; 95% CI 1.27–2.19, respectively) and polypill equivalent B (OR: 1.52; 95% CI 1.17–1.96 and OR: 1.41; 95% CI 1.07–1.85, respectively). Similarly, in both periods, age over 70 years, compared to middle-age, was associated with taking polypill equivalent A (OR: 11.71; CI 6.74–20.33 and OR: 9.56; CI 4.13–22.13, respectively) and equivalent B (OR: 13.22; CI 7.27–24.07 and OR: 20.63; CI 6.51–56.36, respectively). Former or current smoking was also associated with a higher likelihood of taking polypill equivalent A in both periods. A large fraction of the population is eligible for the polypill, but only one-third of them actually benefits from an equivalent, and this proportion did not change over time.

Clinical factors associated with the intraventricular conduction disturbances in Swiss middle-aged adults: The CoLaus|PsyCoLaus study

BACKGROUND

Intraventricular conduction disturbances are associated with an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. However, data about factors associated with intraventricular conduction disturbances are sparse. We aimed to identify the clinical factors associated with intraventricular conduction disturbances in the general population.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study in a sample of 3704 participants (age range 45-86 years, 55.2% women). Intraventricular conduction disturbances were defined as QRS > 110 ms on electrocardiograms, and classified into right bundle branch block (RBBB), left bundle branch block (LBBB), left anterior fascicular block (LAFB) and non-specific intraventricular conduction disturbances (NIVCD).

RESULTS

The number of participants, the resulting prevalence (square brackets) and 95% CI (round brackets) of intraventricular conduction disturbances and subtypes (RBBB, LBBB, LAFB and NIVCD) were 187 [5.1% (4.4-5.8%)], 103 [2.9%, (2.3-3.4%)], 29 [0.8% (0.6-1.1%)], 31 (0.9% [0.6-1.2%]), and 47 [1.3% (0.9-1.7)], respectively. Multivariable logistic regression identified male sex [odds ratio and (95% CI): 2.55 (1.34-4.86)] and increasing age (p-value for trend <0.001) as being associated with RBBB; hypertension [3.08 (1.20-7.91)] and elevated NT-proBNP [3.26 (1.43-7.41)] as being associated with LBBB; elevated NT-proBNP [3.14 (1.32-7.46)] as being associated with LFAB; and male sex [5.97 (1.91-18.7)] and increased height [1.31 (1.06-1.63)] as being associated with NIVCD.

CONCLUSION

In a sample of the Swiss middle-aged population, the clinical factors associated with intraventricular conduction disturbances differed according to the intraventricular conduction disturbances subtype: male sex and ageing for RBBB; hypertension and elevated NT-proBNP for LBBB; elevated NT-proBNP for LAFB; and male sex and increased height for NIVCD.

Clinical determinants of the PR interval duration in Swiss middle-aged adults: The CoLaus/PsyCoLaus study

Background

Prolonged PR interval (PRi) is associated with adverse outcomes. However, PRi determinants are poorly known. We aimed to identify the clinical determinants of the PRi duration in the general population.

Hypothesis

Some clinical data are associated with prolonged PRi.

Methods

Cross‐sectional study conducted between 2014 and 2017. Electrocardiogram‐derived PRi duration was categorized into normal or prolonged (>200 ms). Determinants were identified using stepwise logistic regression, and results were expressed as multivariable‐adjusted odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval). A further analysis was performed adjusting for antiarrhythmic drugs, P‐wave contribution to PRi duration, electrolytes (kalemia, calcemia, and magnesemia), and history of cardiovascular disease.

Results

Overall, 3655 participants with measurable PRi duration were included (55.6% females; mean age 62 ± 10 years), and 330 (9.0%) had prolonged PRi. Stepwise logistic regression identified male sex (OR 1.41 [1.02‐1.97]); aging (65‐74 years: OR 2.29 [1.61‐3.24], and ≥ 75 years: OR 4.21 [2.81‐6.31]); increased height (per 5 cm, OR 1.15 [1.06‐1.25]); hypertension (OR 1.37 [1.06‐1.77]); and hs troponin T (OR 1.67 [1.15‐2.43]) as significantly and positively associated, and high resting heart rate (≥70 beats/min, OR 0.43 [0.29‐0.62]) as negatively associated with prolonged PRi. After further adjustment, male sex, aging and increased height remained positively, and high resting heart rate negatively associated with prolonged PRi. Hypertension and hs troponin T were no longer associated.

Conclusion

In a sample of the Swiss middle‐aged population, male sex, aging and increased height significantly increased the likelihood of a prolonged PRi duration, whereas a high resting heart rate decreased it.

Performance of risk prediction scores for cardiovascular mortality in older persons: External validation of the SCORE OP and appraisal

BACKGROUND

European guidelines recommend the use of the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) to assess 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular events in people aged 40 to 65. The SCORE Older Persons (SCORE OP, 5-year and 10-year versions) was recently developed for people aged 65 or older. We assessed the performance of these risk scores in predicting fatal cardiovascular events in older persons in Berlin.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data from the Berlin Initiative Study (BIS), a prospective, population-based study of older persons recruited from a German public health insurance company database were used. 1,657 participants aged 70 or older without reported previous myocardial infarction were included. We assessed calibration by comparing predicted risks to observed (for 5-year versions, 5y) or projected (for 10-year versions) probabilities. During follow-up (median: 4.8 years), 118 cardiovascular deaths occurred. The calibration assessment of the SCORE OP-H 5y and SCORE OP-L 5y equations revealed 2.1- and 1.5-fold overestimation. Comparing 10-year versions, the SCORE OP showed better discrimination ability compared to the SCORE (C-indices of around 0.80 compared to 0.72) and the SCORE for high-risk regions showed the best calibration (chi-square = 29.68). The SCORE OP overestimated the true risk; 519 and 677 events were predicted using the low-risk and high-risk region SCORE OP equations compared to 397 to 399 events projected based on BIS follow-up data (predicted/actual ratios of 1.3 and 1.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Given the low transportability of the SCORE OP observed in our population, we caution against its use in routine clinical practice until further information is available to avoid possible overtreatment among older persons in Berlin.

Comparison of Swiss and European risk algorithms for cardiovascular prevention in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

In Switzerland, two distinct algorithms are recommended for cardiovascular prevention: (a) Arbeitsgruppe Lipide und Atherosklerose (AGLA); and (b) European Society of Cardiology (ESC). We validated and determined which algorithm better predicts incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and assessed statin eligibility in Switzerland.

DESIGN

A prospective population-based cohort.

METHODS

We employed longitudinal data of the CoLaus study involving 6733 individuals, aged 35-75 years, with a 10-year follow-up. Using discrimination and calibration, we evaluated the predictive performance of the AGLA and ESC algorithms for the prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

From the 6733 initial participants, 5529 were analysed with complete baseline and follow-up data. Mean age (SD) was 52.4 (10.6) years and 54% were women. During an average follow-up (SD) of 10.2 years (1.7), 370 (6.7%) participants developed an incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The sensitivity of AGLA and ESC algorithms to predict atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was 51.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 46.4-56.8) and 58.6% (53.4-63.7), respectively. Discrimination and calibration were similar between the AGLA and ESC algorithms, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.78 (95% CI 0.76-0.80) and 0.79 (0.76-0.81), and Brier scores of 0.059 and 0.041, respectively. Among 370 individuals developing incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, only 278 (75%) were eligible for statin therapy at baseline, including 210 (57%) according to both algorithms, 4 (1%) to AGLA only and 64 (17%) to ESC only.

CONCLUSION

AGLA and ESC algorithms presented similar accuracy to predict atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in Switzerland. A quarter of adults developing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease were not identified by preventive algorithms to be eligible for statin therapy.

Predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular mortality in the 40 to 69 year old general population without cardiovascular diseases in Germany

AIMS

To estimate the 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the 40 to 69 year old general population in Germany stratified by sex and to analyze differences between socio-economic status (SES), region and community size in individuals without CVD. The analysis is based on the newly recalibrated SCORE Deutschland risk charts and considered other comorbidities for the classification of the high CVD risk group according to the guidelines of the European Society of Cardiology.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 3,498 participants (40-69 years) from the German Health Examination Survey for Adults 2008-2011 (DEGS1) without a history of CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke) we estimated the proportion with a low (SCORE <1%), moderate (SCORE 1-<5%) and high 10-year CVD mortality risk (SCORE ≥5% or diabetes, renal insufficiency, SBP/DPB ≥180/110 mmHg or cholesterol >8 mmol/l). The prevalence of low, moderate and high risk was 42.8%, 38.5% and 18.8% in men and 73.7%, 18.1% and 8.2% in women. The prevalence of high risk was significantly lower in women with a high compared to a low SES (3.3% vs. 11.2%) and in communities with ≥100.000 inhabitants compared to <20.000 inhabitants (5.4% vs.10.9%). There were no significant associations between predicted CVD mortality risk and SES or community size in men and regions in men and women. Among the high risk group, 58.2% of men and 9.8% of women had SCORE ≥5%, leaving the majority of women (60.1%) classified as high risks due to diabetes and SCORE <5%.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest the persistence of socioeconomic disparities in predicted cardiovascular mortality in women and support the need of large-scale prevention efforts beyond individual lifestyle modification or treatment. Furthermore, the importance of additional comorbidities for the high risk group classification is highlighted.

Re-calibration of coronary risk prediction: an example of the Seven Countries Study

We aimed at performing a calibration and re-calibration process using six standard risk factors from Northern (NE, N = 2360) or Southern European (SE, N = 2789) middle-aged men of the Seven Countries Study, whose parameters and data were fully known, to establish whether re-calibration gave the right answer. Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino technique as modified by Demler (GNDD) in 2015 produced chi-squared statistics using 10 deciles of observed/expected CHD mortality risk, corresponding to Hosmer-Lemeshaw chi-squared employed for multiple logistic equations whereby binary data are used. Instead of the number of events, the GNDD test uses survival probabilities of observed and predicted events. The exercise applied, in five different ways, the parameters of the NE-predictive model to SE (and vice-versa) and compared the outcome of the simulated re-calibration with the real data. Good re-calibration could be obtained only when risk factor coefficients were substituted, being similar in magnitude and not significantly different between NE-SE. In all other ways, a good re-calibration could not be obtained. This is enough to praise for an overall need of re-evaluation of most investigations that, without GNDD or another proper technique for statistically assessing the potential differences, concluded that re-calibration is a fair method and might therefore be used, with no specific caution.

No association between grip strength and cardiovascular risk: The CoLaus population-based study

BACKGROUND

Decreased grip strength (GS) is predictive of cardiovascular (CV) disease but whether it improves CV risk prediction has not been evaluated. We assessed the predictive value of low GS on incident CV events and overall mortality taking into account CV risk equations in a population-based study from Switzerland.

METHODS

2707 adults (54.8% women, age range 50-75years) were followed for a median time of 5.4years. GS was assessed using a hydraulic hand dynamometer. CV absolute risk at baseline was assessed using recalibrated SCORE, Framingham and PROCAM risk equations. Incident CV events were adjudicated by an independent committee.

RESULTS

160 deaths and 188 incident CV events occurred during follow-up. On bivariate analysis, low GS was associated with increased incident CV events: hazard ratio (HR) and (95% confidence interval) 1.76 (1.13-2.76), p<0.01 but not with overall mortality: HR=1.51 (0.94-2.45), p=0.09. The association between low GS and incident CV events disappeared after adjusting for baseline CV risk: HR=1.23 (0.79-1.94), p=0.36; 1.34 (0.86-2.10), p=0.20 and 1.47 (0.94-2.31), p=0.09 after adjusting for SCORE, Framingham and PROCAM scores, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Low GS is not predictive of incident CV events when taking into account CV absolute risk.

Association of grip strength with cardiovascular risk markers

Background Mechanisms underlying the association between grip strength and cardiovascular mortality are poorly understood. We aimed to assess the association of grip strength with a panel of cardiovascular risk markers. Design The study was based on a cross-sectional analysis of 3468 adults aged 50-75 years (1891 women) from a population-based sample in Lausanne, Switzerland. Methods Grip strength was measured using a hydraulic hand dynamometer. Cardiovascular risk markers included anthropometry, blood pressure, lipids, glucose, adiposity, inflammatory and other metabolic markers. Results In both genders, grip strength was negatively associated with fat mass (Pearson correlation coefficient: women: -0.170, men: -0.198), systolic blood pressure (women: -0.096, men: -0.074), fasting glucose (women: -0.048, men: -0.071), log-transformed leptin (women: -0.074, men: -0.065), log-transformed high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (women: -0.101, men: -0.079) and log-transformed homocysteine (women: -0.109, men: -0.060). In men, grip strength was also positively associated with diastolic blood pressure (0.068), total (0.106) and low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (0.082), and negatively associated with interleukin-6 (-0.071); in women, grip strength was negatively associated with triglycerides (-0.064) and uric acid (-0.059). After multivariate adjustment, grip strength was negatively associated with waist circumference (change per 5 kg increase in grip strength: -0.82 cm in women and -0.77 cm in men), fat mass (-0.56% in women; -0.27% in men) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (-6.8% in women; -3.2% in men) in both genders, and with body mass index (0.22 kg/m²) and leptin (-2.7%) in men. Conclusion Grip strength shows only moderate associations with cardiovascular risk markers. The effect of muscle strength as measured by grip strength on cardiovascular disease does not seem to be mediated by cardiovascular risk markers.

An evaluation of the performance of SCORE Sweden 2015 in estimating cardiovascular risk

Background

Risk prediction models for cardiovascular death are important for providing advice on lifestyle and in decision-making regarding primary preventive drug treatment. The latest Swedish version of the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE 2015) has yet not been tested in the population.

Objective

The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of high and very high risk of fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) of the current population according to 2015 SCORE Sweden and to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the 2003 Swedish version of SCORE (2003 SCORE Sweden) and 2015 SCORE Sweden in a population with declining CVD mortality.

Methods

We estimated the high and very high risk group for cardiovascular death for individuals 40–65 years of age in the 2014 Northern Sweden MONICA population survey excluding subjects with known diabetes or previous CVD ( n = 813). Using the 1999 MONICA survey ( n = 3347) followed up for 10 years for CVD mortality, we assessed the calibration of both 2003 and 2015 SCORE Sweden.

Results

In 2014 2.6% of the population was considered at high or very high risk for fatal CVD, 95% were men and 76% were in the age group 60–65 years. Including subjects with a single markedly elevated risk factor, known diabetes or CVD, 12% of the population was at high or very high risk. During 10 years of follow-up of the 1999 cohort, 34 CVD deaths (24 men and 10 women) occurred. The 2003 SCORE overestimated the risk of death from CVD (ratio predicted/observed 2.3, P < 0.001) whereas the 2015 SCORE slightly overestimated the number of deaths (predicted/observed 1.3, P = 0.12). The 2015 SCORE predicted more accurately than the 2003 SCORE the number of deaths in the different risk and age categories.

Conclusion

The 2015 SCORE Sweden more adequately than 2003 SCORE Sweden predicts the number of deaths. In 2014, the proportion of high-risk individuals is small in northern Sweden. The main use of 2015 SCORE Sweden would therefore be as an educational tool between the physician and people without diabetes or CVD in a consultation regarding cardiovascular risk.

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.

Did Dumbo suffer a heart attack? independent association between earlobe crease and cardiovascular disease

Background

Earlobe crease (ELC) has been associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) or risk factors (CVRF) and could be a marker predisposing to CVD. However, most studies studied only a small number of CVRF and no complete assessment of the associations between ELC and CVRF has been performed in a single study.

Methods

Population-based study (n = 4635, 46.7 % men) conducted between 2009 and 2012 in Lausanne, Switzerland.

Results

Eight hundred six participants (17.4 %) had an ELC. Presence of ELC was associated with male gender and older age. After adjusting for age and gender (and medication whenever necessary), presence of ELC was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with higher levels of body mass index (BMI) [adjusted mean ± standard error: 27.0 ± 0.2 vs. 26.02 ± 0.07 kg/m²], triglycerides [1.40 ± 0.03 vs. 1.36 ± 0.01 mmol/L] and insulin [8.8 ± 0.2 vs. 8.3 ± 0.1 μIU/mL]; lower levels of HDL cholesterol [1.61 ± 0.02 vs. 1.64 ± 0.01 mmol/L]; higher frequency of abdominal obesity [odds ratio and (95 % confidence interval) 1.20 (1.02; 1.42)]; hypertension [1.41 (1.18; 1.67)]; diabetes [1.43 (1.15; 1.79)]; high HOMA-IR [1.19 (1.00; 1.42)]; metabolic syndrome [1.28 (1.08; 1.51)] and history of CVD [1.55 (1.21; 1.98)]. No associations were found between ELC and estimated cardiovascular risk, inflammatory or liver markers. After further adjustment on BMI, only the associations between ELC and hypertension [1.30 (1.08; 1.56)] and history of CVD [1.47 (1.14; 1.89)] remained significant. For history of CVD, further adjustment on diabetes, hypertension, total cholesterol and smoking led to similar results [1.36 (1.05; 1.77)].

Conclusion

In this community-based sample ELC was significantly and independently associated with hypertension and history of CVD.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12872-016-0193-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Low statin use in adults hospitalized with acute coronary syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To assess recommended and actual use of statins in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) based on clinical prediction scores in adults who develop their first acute coronary syndrome (ACS).

METHOD

Cross-sectional study of 3172 adults without previous CVD hospitalized with ACS at 4 university centers in Switzerland. The number of participants eligible for statins before hospitalization was estimated based on the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines and compared to the observed number of participants on statins at hospital entry.

RESULTS

Overall, 1171 (37%) participants were classified as high-risk (10-year risk of cardiovascular mortality ≥5% or diabetes); 1025 (32%) as intermediate risk (10-year risk <5% but ≥1%); and 976 (31%) as low risk (10-year risk <1%). Before hospitalization, 516 (16%) were on statins; among high-risk participants, only 236 of 1171 (20%) were on statins. If ESC primary prevention guidelines had been fully implemented, an additional 845 high-risk adults (27% of the whole sample) would have been eligible for statins before hospitalization.

CONCLUSION

Although statins are recommended for primary prevention in high-risk adults, only one-fifth of them are on statins when hospitalized for a first ACS.

Cardiovascular risk assessment: a global perspective

An important strategy in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the early identification of high-risk individuals. Effective implementation of a strategy to identify these individuals in a clinical setting is reliant on the availability of appropriate CVD risk-assessment models and guideline recommendations. Several well-known models for CVD risk assessment have been developed and utilized in the USA and Europe, but might not be suitable for use in other regions or countries. Very few reports have discussed the development of risk-assessment models and recommendations from a global perspective. In this Review, we discuss why risk-assessment methods developed from studies in one geographical region or ethnic population might not be suitable for other regions or populations, and examine the availability and characteristics of predictive models in areas beyond the USA or Europe. In addition, we compare the differences in risk-assessment recommendations outlined in CVD clinical guidelines from developed and developing countries, and consider their potential effect on clinical practice. This overview of cardiovascular risk assessment from a global perspective can potentially guide low-to-middle-income countries in the development or validation of their own CVD risk-assessment models, and the formulation of recommendations in their own clinical guidelines according to local requirements.

New insights into the management of hypertension and cardiovascular risk with Angiotensin receptor blockers: observational studies help us?

Post-marketing observational studies are valuable for establishing the real-world effectiveness of treatment regimens in routine clinical practice as they typically monitor a diverse population of patients over many months. This article reviews recent observational studies of angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) for the management of hypertension: the 6-month eprosartan POWER study (n~29,400), the 3-month valsartan translational research programme (n~19,500), the 9-month irbesartan Treat to Target study (n=14,200), the 6-month irbesartan DO-IT survey (n~3300) and the 12-week candesartan CHILI survey programme (n=4600). Reduction in blood pressure with ARBs reported across these studies appears to be comparable for the different agents, although direct comparisons between studies cannot be made owing to different treatment durations and baseline patient demographics. Of these studies, the eprosartan POWER study, 2 of the 7 studies in the valsartan translational research programme, and the candesartan CHILI Triple T study measured total cardiovascular risk, as recommended in the 2013 European Society of Cardiology-European Society of Hypertension guidelines. The POWER study confirmed the value of the Systemic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) to accurately assess total cardiovascular risk.

With the advent of new healthcare practices, such as the use of electronic health records (EHRs), observational studies in larger patient populations will become possible. In the future, algorithms embedded in EHR systems could evolve as decision support tools to inform on patient care.

Population specific and up to date cardiovascular risk charts can be efficiently obtained with record linkage of routine and observational data

Background

Only few countries have cohorts enabling specific and up-to-date cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. Individual risk assessment based on study samples that differ too much from the target population could jeopardize the benefit of risk charts in general practice. Our aim was to provide up-to-date and valid CVD risk estimation for a Swiss population using a novel record linkage approach.

Methods

Anonymous record linkage was used to follow-up (for mortality, until 2008) 9,853 men and women aged 25–74 years who participated in the Swiss MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CVD) study of 1983–92. The linkage success was 97.8%, loss to follow-up 1990–2000 was 4.7%. Based on the ESC SCORE methodology (Weibull regression), we used age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, and cholesterol to generate three models. We compared the 1) original SCORE model with a 2) recalibrated and a 3) new model using the Brier score (BS) and cross-validation.

Results

Based on the cross-validated BS, the new model (BS = 14107×10⁻⁶) was somewhat more appropriate for risk estimation than the original (BS = 14190×10⁻⁶) and the recalibrated (BS = 14172×10⁻⁶) model. Particularly at younger age, derived absolute risks were consistently lower than those from the original and the recalibrated model which was mainly due to a smaller impact of total cholesterol.

Conclusion

Using record linkage of observational and routine data is an efficient procedure to obtain valid and up-to-date CVD risk estimates for a specific population.

Prediction models for risk classification in cardiovascular disease

Risk stratification is an increasingly important tool for the management of patients with different diseases and also for decision making in subjects not yet with overt disease but who are at risk of disease in the short or long term or during their lifetime. Careful risk assessment in the individual patient, based on clinical, laboratory and imaging data, can be helpful for making decisions about treatment or other prevention strategies. As regards cardiovascular disease, many models have been suggested and are available for the prediction of diagnosis and prognosis and there are several algorithms for risk prediction. However, current risk screening methods are not perfect. This review evaluates relative strengths and limitations of traditional and more recent methods for assessing the performance of prediction models.

Improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction using coronary imaging: subclinical atherosclerosis: the memory of lifetime risk factor exposure

Deaths from diseases of the heart are decreasing. Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) will be the main cause of morbidity and mortality in 2015 according to a WHO report. The main problem is related to the long-time delay between the start of the development of atherosclerosis in young adults and the manifestation many decades later. Despite a recent decline in a CVD mortality rate in men and women, the main problem is related to the acute manifestation as the acute coronary syndrome, which leads 30-50% of subjects to sudden and fatal outcomes. In addition, about 20% of first and recurrent acute myocardial infarctions are silent. The lifetime risk of coronary artery disease after 40 years is 49% for men and 32% for women. That means, we are confronted with a major health care problem. This is even more obvious, when the rate of coronary heart disease deaths out of the hospital are taken into account which amount to 70% in 2007. These data are confirmed for Europe despite a strong decline of hospital deaths. Another problem is related to the fact that the number of sudden cardiac death amounts to >300 000 in the general US population. It is about 10 times higher than in those patients who are defined as prone to sudden death due to low ejection fraction, ventricular arrhythmias, and acute myocardial infarction. For cardiologists, this general topic becomes even more obvious, because even well-known cardiologists experienced early (≤65 years) sudden cardiac deaths such as RW Campbell, JM Isner, PA Poole-Wilson, H Drexler, and recently the paediatric cardiologist from Hannover, A Wessels. These events underline again what has been emphasized 15 years ago by the MONICA study that two-thirds of patients die outside the hospital and that we have to concentrate on primary and secondary prevention, also in memory of these colleagues. This review will demonstrate the potential value of coronary artery calcification screening which can be used as a sign of subclinical coronary arteriosclerosis for improved risk prediction, the first step to prevention. Subclinical atherosclerosis represents the vessel memory of risk factor exposure.

Regional differences in self-reported screening, prevalence and management of cardiovascular risk factors in Switzerland

Background

In Switzerland, health policies are decided at the local level, but little is known regarding their impact on the screening and management of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs). We thus aimed at assessing geographical levels of CVRFs in Switzerland.

Methods

Swiss Health Survey for 2007 (N = 17,879). Seven administrative regions were defined: West (Leman), West-Central (Mittelland), Zurich, South (Ticino), North-West, East and Central Switzerland. Obesity, smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes prevalence, treatment and screening within the last 12 months were assessed by interview.

Results

After multivariate adjustment for age, gender, educational level, marital status and Swiss citizenship, no significant differences were found between regions regarding prevalence of obesity or current smoking. Similarly, no differences were found regarding hypertension screening and prevalence. Two thirds of subjects who had been told they had high blood pressure were treated, the lowest treatment rates being found in East Switzerland: odds-ratio and [95% confidence interval] 0.65 [0.50-0.85]. Screening for hypercholesterolemia was more frequently reported in French (Leman) and Italian (Ticino) speaking regions. Four out of ten participants who had been told they had high cholesterol levels were treated and the lowest treatment rates were found in German-speaking regions. Screening for diabetes was higher in Ticino (1.24 [1.09 - 1.42]). Six out of ten participants who had been told they had diabetes were treated, the lowest treatment rates were found for German-speaking regions.

Conclusions

In Switzerland, cardiovascular risk factor screening and management differ between regions and these differences cannot be accounted for by differences in populations' characteristics. Management of most cardiovascular risk factors could be improved.

The prevalence and management of cardiovascular risk factors in immigrant groups in Switzerland

OBJECTIVES

To compare the prevalence and management of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) between immigrant groups and Swiss nationals.

METHODS

The Swiss Health Surveys (SHS, N = 49,245) and CoLaus study (N = 6,710) were used. Immigrant groups from France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, former Yugoslavia, other European and other countries were defined.

RESULTS

Immigrants from Italy, France, Portugal, Spain and former Yugoslavia presented a higher prevalence of smoking than Swiss nationals. Immigrants reported less hypertension than Swiss nationals, but the differences were reduced when blood pressure measurements were used. The prevalence of dyslipidaemia was similar between immigrants and Swiss nationals in the SHS. When eligibility for statin treatment was assessed, immigrants from Italy were more frequently eligible than Swiss nationals. Immigrants from former Yugoslavia presented a lower prevalence of diabetes in the SHS, but a higher prevalence in the CoLaus study. Most differences between immigrant groups and Swiss nationals disappeared after adjusting for age, leisure-time physical activity, being overweight/obesity and education.

CONCLUSIONS

Most CVRFs are unevenly distributed among immigrant groups in Switzerland, but these differences are due to disparities in age, leisure-time physical activity, being overweight/obesity and education.

Prevalence, treatment and control of dyslipidaemia in Switzerland: still a long way to go

BACKGROUND

There is little information regarding the prevalence and management of dyslipidaemia in Switzerland.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional population-based study of 3238 women and 2846 men aged 35-75.

METHODS

Dyslipidaemia prevalence, treatment and control were defined according to PROCAM guidelines adapted to Switzerland.

RESULTS

About 29% of the overall sample presented with dyslipidaemia, of which 39% were treated and 58% of those treated were controlled. Among the 710 patients with personal history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and/or diabetes, 632 (89%) presented with dyslipidaemia, of which 278 (44%) and 134 (21%) patients were treated and adequately controlled, respectively. On multivariate analysis, hypolipidaemic drug treatment was positively related with age and body mass index (P for trend <0.001), and negatively related with smoking status (P for trend <0.002), whereas personal history of CVD and/or diabetes had no effect [odds ratio (OR)=1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90-1.38]. Adequate control of lipid levels was negatively related with female sex (OR=0.65, 95% CI: 0.45-0.94) and personal history of CVD and/or diabetes (OR=0.42, 95% CI: 0.30-0.59). When personal history of CVD and/or diabetes was replaced by PROCAM risk categories, patients in the highest risk were also less well controlled.

CONCLUSION

In this population-based study, one-third of the participants was dyslipidaemic, but less than half was treated and only one-fifth was adequately controlled. The low treatment and control levels among individuals at high risk for CVD calls for a better application of recommendations regarding personal preventive measures.

The global risk approach should be better applied in French hypertensive patients: a comparison between simulation and observation studies

Background

The prediction of the public health impact of a preventive strategy provides valuable support for decision-making. International guidelines for hypertension management have introduced the level of absolute cardiovascular risk in the definition of the treatment target population. The public health impact of implementing such a recommendation has not been measured.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We assessed the efficiency of three treatment scenarios according to historical and current versions of practice guidelines on a Realistic Virtual Population representative of the French population aged from 35 to 64 years: 1) BP≥160/95 mm Hg; 2) BP≥140/90 mm Hg and 3) BP≥140/90 mm Hg plus increased CVD risk. We compared the eligibility following the ESC guidelines with the recently observed proportion of treated amongst hypertensive individuals reported by the Etude Nationale Nutrition Santé survey. Lowering the threshold to define hypertension multiplied by 2.5 the number of eligible individuals. Applying the cardiovascular risk rule reduced this number significantly: less than 1/4 of hypertensive women under 55 years and less than 1/3 of hypertensive men below 45 years of age. This was the most efficient strategy. Compared to the simulated guidelines application, men of all ages were undertreated (between 32 and 60%), as were women over 55 years (70%). By contrast, younger women were over-treated (over 200%).

Conclusion

The global CVD risk approach to decide for treatment is more efficient than the simple blood pressure level. However, lack of screening rather than guideline application seems to explain the low prescription rates among hypertensive individuals in France. Multidimensional analyses required to obtain these results are possible only through databases at the individual level: realistic virtual populations should become the gold standard for assessing the impact of public health policies at the national level.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

Value and limitations of existing scores for the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a review for clinicians

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the biggest causes of death worldwide. In most people, CVD is the product of a number of causal risk factors. Several seemingly modest risk factors may, in combination, result in a much higher risk than an impressively raised single factor. For this reason, risk estimation systems have been developed to assist clinicians to assess the effects of risk factor combinations in planning management strategies. In this article, the performances of the major risk estimation systems are reviewed. Most perform usably well in populations that are similar to the one used to derive the system, and in other populations if calibrated to allow for different CVD mortality rates and different risk factor distributions. The effect of adding "new" risk factors to age, sex, smoking, lipid status, and blood pressure is usually small, but may help to appropriately reclassify some of those patients who are close to a treatment threshold to a more correct "treat/do not treat" category. Risk estimation in the young and old needs more research. Quantification of the hoped-for benefits of the multiple risk estimation approach in terms of improved outcomes is still needed. But, it is likely that the widespread use of such an approach will help to address the issues of both undertreatment and overtreatment.

Cardiovascular risk estimation and eligibility for statins in primary prevention comparing different strategies

Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10-year CHD risk. It is unclear which risk algorithm and guidelines should be used in European populations. Using data from a population-based study in Switzerland, we first assessed 10-year CHD risk and eligibility for statins in 5,683 women and men 35 to 75 years of age without cardiovascular disease by comparing recommendations by the European Society of Cardiology without and with extrapolation of risk to age 60 years, the International Atherosclerosis Society, and the US Adult Treatment Panel III. The proportions of participants classified as high-risk for CHD were 12.5% (15.4% with extrapolation), 3.0%, and 5.8%, respectively. Proportions of participants eligible for statins were 9.2% (11.6% with extrapolation), 13.7%, and 16.7%, respectively. Assuming full compliance to each guideline, expected relative decreases in CHD deaths in Switzerland over a 10-year period would be 16.4% (17.5% with extrapolation), 18.7%, and 19.3%, respectively; the corresponding numbers needed to treat to prevent 1 CHD death would be 285 (340 with extrapolation), 380, and 440, respectively. In conclusion, the proportion of subjects classified as high risk for CHD varied over a fivefold range across recommendations. Following the International Atherosclerosis Society and the Adult Treatment Panel III recommendations might prevent more CHD deaths at the cost of higher numbers needed to treat compared with European Society of Cardiology guidelines.