What is the predictive value of established risk factors for total and cardiovascular disease mortality when measured before middle age? Pooled analyses of two prospective cohort studies from Scotland

Investigation of poor predictive factors in extensive stage small cell lung cancer under etoposide-platinum-atezolizumab treatment

BACKGROUND

The phase III trial IMpower133 showed that platinum and etoposide plus atezolizumab was associated with improved overall survival (OS) and progression free-survival (PFS) when compared to the placebo group in treatment-naïve extensive stage (ES) small cell lung cancer (SCLC). Due to superiority in clinical outcomes, combination immunotherapy plus chemotherapy have become mainstay treatment modalities as first-line treatment in ES-SCLC. Nevertheless, real-world data are still lacking and the search for potential biomarkers is essential. This study aimed to evaluate potential predictive biomarkers applicable in ES-SCLC under combination therapy.

METHODS

Patients with ES-SCLC under etoposide-platinum-atezolizumab enrolled from seven university hospitals affiliated to the Catholic University of Korea were evaluated. Pretreatment clinical parameters were evaluated for association with OS and PFS. Adverse events (AEs) during induction and maintenance phases were also evaluated. p-values below 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

A total of 41 patients were evaluated. Six-month survival was 68.6%. As best response to treatment, 26 (63.4%) showed partial response, nine (22.0%) showed stable disease, and four (9.8%) showed progressive disease. During the induction phase, grade I-II AEs occurred in 22 (53.7%) patients, and grade III-IV AEs occurred in 26 (63.4%) patients. During the maintenance phase, nine out of 25 (36.0%) patients experienced any grade AEs. In multivariate analysis for OS, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), c-reactive protein (CRP), and forced vital capacity (%) were significant factors. In multivariate analysis for PFS, sex, and LDH were significant.

CONCLUSION

In ES-SCLC under etoposide-platinum-atezolizumab, pretreatment CRP, LDH and FVC (%) were independent predictive factors.

Maximal voluntary ventilation and forced vital capacity of pulmonary function are independent prognostic factors in colorectal cancer patients: A retrospective study of 2323 cases in a single-center of China

Preoperative pulmonary function assessment is applied to select surgical candidates and predict the occurrence of postoperative complications. This present study enrolled 2323 colorectal cancer patients. Forced vital capacity (FVC) and maximal voluntary ventilation (MVV) were measured as predicted values. Associations between patient pulmonary function and both prognosis and postoperative complications was analyzed. The value of FVC and MVV optimal cutoff was 98.1 (P < .001) and 92.5 (P < .001), respectively. Low FVC and low MVV were associated with higher rates of postoperative fever (23.8% vs 13.9%, P < .001; 17.8% vs 13.3%, P = .049, respectively) and with higher rates of pneumonia (3.75% vs 1.73%, P = .002; 3.00% vs 1.71%, P = .009, respectively), pleural effusion (3.00% vs 1.57%, P = .033; 3.18% vs 1.42%, P = .006, respectively), and poor patient prognosis (5-year overall survival: 80.0% vs 90.3%, P < .001; 71.7% vs 91.9%, P < .001, respectively). In addition, low FVC was closely related to the higher rate of anastomosis leak (4.31% vs 2.29%, P = .013), low MVV was correlated with the higher rate of uroschesis (2.38% vs 0.65%, P < .001). In subgroup analyses, the predictive value of FVC and MVV in patients with different tumor stage was analyzed. Both low FVC and MVV were independent risk factors for poor prognosis in stage II and III, indicating that low FVC and MVV are predictive of poorer prognosis and higher risk of postoperative complications in colorectal cancer patients.

A lower level of forced expiratory volume in one second predicts the poor prognosis of small cell lung cancer

Background

The impact of impaired pulmonary function on the clinical outcome of small cell lung cancer (SCLC) has not been examined. The objectives of this study were to compare the clinical characteristics and prognosis of SCLC patients with and without impaired pulmonary function and investigate predictors related to the pulmonary function of mortality in SCLC patients.

Methods

This is a retrospective multicenter study performed between January 2011 and December 2015. In all, 170 SCLC patients that were treated with chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy and had a pulmonary function test (PFT) were enrolled. Patients were divided into the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) group and the non-COPD group. The overall survival (OS) was compared and predictors of worse OS were analyzed.

Results

COPD was present in 54.7% of all SCLC patients. There were no differences in the clinical characteristics and treatment strategies between the COPD and non-COPD groups. OS (log-rank test, P=0.103) was not different between the COPD and non-COPD groups. In a multivariate analysis using a Cox regression model, extensive disease (ED) [hazard ratio (HR) =2.863; 95% CI: 1.787-4.587] and low forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁) <80% (HR =1.854; 95% CI: 1.077-3.192) were independent risk factors for shorter survival. In a subgroup multivariate analysis, a FEV₁ less than 80% (HR =5.631; P=0.018) was independently associated with poor OS in patients with ED.

Conclusions

A low FEV₁, not COPD, was a predicting factor for poor treatment outcomes in SCLC patients.

Low forced vital capacity predicts poor prognosis in gastric cancer patients

Preoperative pulmonary function assessment is used to select surgical candidates and predict the occurrence of postoperative complications. The present study enrolled 1210 gastric cancer patients (949 males and 261 females). Forced vital capacity (FVC) and maximal voluntary ventilation (MVV) were measured as a percent of predicted values. We then analyzed associations between patient pulmonary function and both prognosis and postoperative complications. Patient 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival rates were 88.8%, 65.7% and 53.0%, respectively. FVC and MVV optimal cutoff values were 87.0 (P=0.003) and 83.6 (P=0.026), respectively. Low FVC and low MVV were associated with higher rates of postoperative fever (23.8% vs. 13.9%, P<0.001; 17.8% vs. 13.3%, P=0.049, respectively) and poor patient prognosis (5-year overall survival: 43.5% vs. 57.6%, P=0.003; 51.8% vs. 54.3%, P=0.026, respectively). Only low FVC was an independent prognostic predictor for gastric cancer (P=0.012). In subgroup analyses, FVC was not associated with stage I or II gastric cancer patient prognoses (P>0.05), but low FVC was an independent risk factor for poor prognosis in stage III gastric cancer cases (P=0.004). These findings indicate that low FVC is predictive of poorer prognosis and higher risk of postoperative fever in gastric cancer patients.

Long term risk factors for coronary heart disease and stroke: influence of duration of follow-up over four decades of mortality surveillance

AIM

While cohort studies have revealed a range of risk factors for coronary heart disease and stroke, the extent to which the strength of these associations varies according to duration of follow-up in studies with extended disease surveillance is unclear. This was the aim of the present study.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Initiated in 1967/70, the original Whitehall study is an on-going cohort study of 15,402 male UK government workers free of coronary heart disease when they took part in a baseline medical examination during which a range of standard risk factors was measured. In analyses in which we stratified by duration of follow-up, there was evidence of time-dependency for most risk factor-disease relationships. Thus, the associations of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and cigarette smoking with coronary heart disease and stroke diminished in strength with increasing duration of follow-up, whereas the magnitude of the body mass index-coronary heart disease relation was unchanged. For example, the age-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for cigarette smoking (versus never smoked) in relation to coronary heart disease were: 2.49 (1.80, 3.44), 1.65 (1.34, 2.03), 1.36 (1.15, 1.61) and 1.32 (1.10, 1.58) for follow-up periods 0-10, 10-20, 20-30 and 30+ years, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Despite a general diminution in the strength of effect over time, even in the fourth decade of follow-up, classic risk factors retained some predictive capacity for coronary heart disease and, to a lesser degree, stroke.

Forced vital capacity predicts long-term survival for curative-resected NSCLC

We conducted a retrospective study in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who underwent curative lung resection to seek for better lung function parameters associated with long-term survival after lung resection. From January 2006 to December 2008, 470 patients who underwent lung resection with a postoperative diagnosis of NSCLC were studied. Median survival time was 60 months. Patients with pulmonary function values <80 % of predicted were defined as lung function impairment. Patients with impaired vital capacity, maximal voluntary ventilation, forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) or diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) had significant shorter overall survival time (P = 0.024; P = 0.026; P < 0.001; P = 0.027; P = 0.007). In univariate analysis, VC, FVC, FEV1 and DLCO were found to have significant effect on overall survival. In multivariate analysis, FVC (HR, 2.029; 95 % CI 1.126-3.659; P = 0.019) was found to be an independent prognostic predictor of long-term overall survival. For cancer-specific survival, FVC (HR 2.404; 95 % CI 1.300-4.445; P = 0.005) was also found to be an independent prognostic predictor in multivariable analysis. Preoperative FVC, rather than FEV1 or DLCO, is an independent prognostic predictor for long-term survival. FVC is not only an indicator of lung function but also of great value for surgeons to predict survival after lung resection.

Obesity and early mortality in the United States

OBJECTIVE

Although obesity is a serious public health problem, there are few reliable measures of its health hazards in the United States. The objective of this study was to estimate how much earlier mortality is likely to occur for Americans who are obese (body mass index [BMI], ≥ 30).

DESIGN AND METHODS

Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) I (1971-1975), NHANES II (1976-1980), and NHANES III (1988-1994) for 37,632 participants who experienced 8,791 deaths during 15 years of follow-up were prospectively analyzed. The relative risk of death from all causes and its advancement period, adjusted for covariates, were calculated. Stratification was used to investigate the effects of pre-existing illness, smoking, and older age on the advancement period.

RESULTS

Compared to the participants of reference weight (BMI, 23 to <25 kg/m2), mortality was likely to occur 9.44 years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72, 18.16) earlier for those who were obese (BMI, ≥ 30). For overweight (25 to <30 kg/m2), grade 1 obesity (BMI, 30 to <35) and grades 2-3 obesity (BMI, ≥ 35.0), the mortality was likely to occur earlier by 4.40 (-3.90, 12.70), 6.69 (-2.06, 15.43), and 14.16 (3.35, 24.97) years, respectively. These estimates apply to healthy nonsmoker young- and middle-aged (21-55 years) adults, who constituted an estimated 32.8% of Americans with age of >21 years between 1988 and 1994. Without stratifying simultaneously for preexisting illness, smoking, and age, values of the advancement period for obesity were markedly smaller than those observed for healthy nonsmoker young and middle-aged adults.

CONCLUSIONS

For healthy nonsmokers young- and middle-aged adults who constitute about one-third of American adults, being obese is likely to hasten mortality by 9.44 years.

Association of all-cause mortality with overweight and obesity using standard body mass index categories: a systematic review and meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Estimates of the relative mortality risks associated with normal weight, overweight, and obesity may help to inform decision making in the clinical setting.

OBJECTIVE

To perform a systematic review of reported hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality for overweight and obesity relative to normal weight in the general population.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and EMBASE electronic databases were searched through September 30, 2012, without language restrictions.

STUDY SELECTION

Articles that reported HRs for all-cause mortality using standard body mass index (BMI) categories from prospective studies of general populations of adults were selected by consensus among multiple reviewers. Studies were excluded that used nonstandard categories or that were limited to adolescents or to those with specific medical conditions or to those undergoing specific procedures. PubMed searches yielded 7034 articles, of which 141 (2.0%) were eligible. An EMBASE search yielded 2 additional articles. After eliminating overlap, 97 studies were retained for analysis, providing a combined sample size of more than 2.88 million individuals and more than 270,000 deaths.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data were extracted by 1 reviewer and then reviewed by 3 independent reviewers. We selected the most complex model available for the full sample and used a variety of sensitivity analyses to address issues of possible overadjustment (adjusted for factors in causal pathway) or underadjustment (not adjusted for at least age, sex, and smoking).

RESULTS

Random-effects summary all-cause mortality HRs for overweight (BMI of 25-<30), obesity (BMI of ≥30), grade 1 obesity (BMI of 30-<35), and grades 2 and 3 obesity (BMI of ≥35) were calculated relative to normal weight (BMI of 18.5-<25). The summary HRs were 0.94 (95% CI, 0.91-0.96) for overweight, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.12-1.25) for obesity (all grades combined), 0.95 (95% CI, 0.88-1.01) for grade 1 obesity, and 1.29 (95% CI, 1.18-1.41) for grades 2 and 3 obesity. These findings persisted when limited to studies with measured weight and height that were considered to be adequately adjusted. The HRs tended to be higher when weight and height were self-reported rather than measured.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Relative to normal weight, both obesity (all grades) and grades 2 and 3 obesity were associated with significantly higher all-cause mortality. Grade 1 obesity overall was not associated with higher mortality, and overweight was associated with significantly lower all-cause mortality. The use of predefined standard BMI groupings can facilitate between-study comparisons.

Development and application of biological age prediction models with physical fitness and physiological components in Korean adults

BACKGROUND

Several biological age (BA) prediction models have been suggested with a variety of biomarkers. Valid models should be able to measure BA in a relatively short time period and predict subsequent physiological capability. Physiological and physical fitness variables have been shown to be distinctive markers for predicting BA and morbidity. The practical and noninvasive nature of such variables makes them useful as clinical assessment tools in estimating BA for in-depth diagnosis and corresponding intervention.

OBJECTIVE

To identify, develop and evaluate biomarkers and BA prediction models and validate their clinical usefulness for the practical diagnosis of functional aging.

METHODS

Fourteen variables were measured in 3,112 male and 1,233 female participants aged 30 and older between the years 2004 and 2007. Through a series of parsimonious stepwise elimination processes, two sets of 8 gender-specific variables were selected as candidate biomarkers for 1,604 men and 760 women. Principal component analysis, linear regression analysis and adjustment methods were further applied to obtain two sets of true BA (TBA) prediction models. The TBA models were examined for validity by comparing TBA to the corresponding chronological age (CA) with clinical risk factors.

RESULTS

TBA prediction models with r(2) values of 0.638 and 0.672 were developed, each unique to men and women, respectively. The overall mean TBA and CA of the participants were 53.9 and 51.8 years, respectively, with a marginal difference of -2.1 and -1.3 years. The regression slopes or rates of TBA as a function of CA were 1.00 and 1.28 for men and women with r values of 0.799 and 0.820 (p < 0.001), respectively. In comparing TBA to CA rates between healthy and clinical risk groups, both sarcopenic and obese groups showed significant increases in TBA.

CONCLUSIONS

The selected biomarkers encompass various complex physiopathological factors related to intrinsic and extrinsic physiological and functional aging. The BA prediction models based on the selected biomarkers could be practical in assessing BA for Korean adults.

Trends in adult cardiovascular disease risk factors and their socio-economic patterning in the Scottish population 1995-2008: cross-sectional surveys

OBJECTIVES

To examine secular and socio-economic changes in cardiovascular disease risk factor prevalences in the Scottish population. This could contribute to a better understanding of why the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Scotland has recently stalled along with a widening of socio-economic inequalities.

DESIGN

Four Scottish Health Surveys 1995, 1998, 2003 and 2008 (6190, 6656, 5497 and 4202 respondents, respectively, aged 25-64 years) were used to examine gender-stratified, age-standardised prevalences of smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, fruit and vegetable consumption, discretionary salt use and self-reported diabetes or hypertension. Prevalences were determined according to education and social class. Inequalities were assessed using the slope index of inequality, and time trends were determined using linear regression.

RESULTS

There were moderate secular declines in the prevalence of smoking, excess alcohol consumption and physical inactivity. Smoking prevalence declined between 1995 and 2008 from 33.4% (95% CI 31.8% to 35.0%) to 29.9% (27.9% to 31.8%) for men and from 36.1% (34.5% to 37.8%) to 27.4% (25.5% to 29.3%) for women. Adverse trends in prevalence were noted for self-reported diabetes and hypertension. Over the four surveys, the diabetes prevalence increased from 1.9% (1.4% to 2.4%) to 3.6% (2.8% to 4.4%) for men and from 1.7% (1.2% to 2.1%) to 3.0% (2.3% to 3.7%) for women. Socio-economic inequalities were evident for almost all risk factors, irrespective of the measure used. These social gradients appeared to be maintained over the four surveys. An exception was self-reported diabetes where, although inequalities were small, the gradient increased over time. Alcohol consumption was unique in consistently showing an inverse gradient, especially for women.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been only a moderate decline in behavioural cardiovascular risk factor prevalences since 1995, with increases in self-reported diabetes and hypertension. Adverse socio-economic gradients have remained unchanged. These findings could help explain the recent stagnation in coronary heart disease mortalities and persistence of related inequalities.

Why does lung function predict mortality? Results from the Whitehall II Cohort Study

The authors examined the extent to which socioeconomic position, behavior-related factors, cardiovascular risk factors, inflammatory markers, and chronic diseases explain the association between poor lung function and mortality in 4,817 participants (68.9% men) from the Whitehall II Study aged 60.8 years (standard deviation, 5.9), on average. Forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV(1)) was used to measure lung function in 2002-2004. A total of 139 participants died during a mean follow-up period of 6.4 years (standard deviation, 0.8). In a model adjusted for age and sex, being in the lowest tertile of FEV(1)/height(2) was associated with a 1.92-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.35, 2.73) increased risk of mortality compared with being in the top 2 tertiles. Once age, sex, and smoking history were taken into account, the most important explanatory factors for this association were inflammatory markers (21.3% reduction in the FEV(1)/height(2)-mortality association), coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes (11.7% reduction), and alcohol consumption, diet, physical activity, and body mass index (9.8% reduction). The contribution of socioeconomic position and cardiovascular risk factors was small (≤ 3.5% reduction). Taken together, these factors explained 32.5% of the association. Multiple pathways link lung function to mortality; these results show inflammatory markers to be particularly important.

Alcohol consumption as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Alcohol exposure is one of the major risk factors for global burden of disease, but atrial fibrillation (AF) had not yet been included in these estimates. The purpose of this contribution was to examine the dose–response relationship between alcohol consumption and AF and to explore potential causal pathways.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Systematic literature review and meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Overall, a consistent dose–response relationship between the amount of alcohol consumed daily and the probability of the onset of AF was found. Women consuming 24, 60 and 120 g of alcohol daily had relative risks of 1.07 [95%confidence interval (CI): 1.04–1.10], 1.42 (95% CI: 1.23–1.64) and 2.02 (95% CI: 1.60–2.97), respectively, relative to nondrinkers. Among men, the corresponding relative risks were 1.08 (95% CI: 1.04–1.11), 1.44 (95% CI: 1.23–1.69) and 2.09(95% CI: 1.52–2.86). Based on the categorical analyses, we could not exclude the existence of a threshold (three drinks a day for men and two drinks a day for women). Several pathogenic mechanisms for the development of AF in alcohol users were identified.

CONCLUSION

Epidemiological criteria for causality were met to conclude a causal impact of alcohol consumption on the onset of AF with a monotonic dose–response relationship. However, the impact of light drinking is not clear.