Prognostic factors in gastrointestinal bleeding due to peptic ulcer: construction of a predictive model

Early Identification of High-Risk Factors for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Objective

To identify simple and accurate pre-endoscopy risk factors for early identification of high-risk upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

Methods

Patients who were admitted to Suzhou Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2019, due to upper gastrointestinal bleeding were retrieved, and the detailed clinical data of the above patients were collected. Patients with a definite diagnosis of bleeding from esophageal/and gastric varices were assigned to the high-risk group. Patients with bleeding not caused by varices were divided into a high-risk and a low-risk group according to the Forrest grading and scoring standard (high-risk group Forrest Ia-IIb, low-risk group Forrest IIc-III). Univariate analysis, t-test, chi-square test, binary logistic regression, ROC curve (Receiver-operating characteristic curve), etc. were employed for analysis in order to identify some simple and accurate risk factors for high-risk upper digestion tract bleeding before endoscopy.

Results

A total of 916 patients were collected. Three risk factors among the screened risk factors (1) hemoglobin ≤ 85 g/L, (2) vomiting red blood, and (3) “red bloody stool” were analyzed by ROC curve analysis. The specificities of each factor were 78.4%, 94.5%, and 96.7%, respectively, and the sensitivities were 71.8%, 55.9%, and 23.1%, respectively. We also derived a risk prediction scoring system for the three factors that meet the high risk such as (1) hemoglobin ≤ 83 g/L, (2)vomiting red blood, and (3) “red bloody stool.” The area under the ROC curve (AUROC), sensitivity, and specificity were 0.877, 0.904, and 0.746.

Conclusion

Hemoglobin ≤ 85 g/L, vomiting red blood, and red bloody stool were included in a simple scoring standard for predicting high-risk UGIB patients before endoscopy. The new risk prediction scoring system requires only three indicators and has the advantages of high accuracy, short time-consuming, and easy application.

Treatment of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in 2020: New techniques and outcomes

The clinical outcome of upper gastrointestinal bleeding has improved due to advances in endoscopic therapy and standardized peri-endoscopy care. Apart from validating clinical scores, artificial intelligence-assisted machine learning models may play an important role in risk stratification. While standard endoscopic treatments remain irreplaceable, novel endoscopic modalities have changed the landscape of management. Over-the-scope clips have high success rates as rescue or even first-line treatments in difficult-to-treat cases. Hemostatic powder is safe and easy to use, which can be useful as temporary control with its high immediate hemostatic ability. After endoscopic hemostasis, Doppler endoscopic probe can offer an objective measure to guide the treatment endpoint. In refractory bleeding, angiographic embolization should be considered before salvage surgery. In variceal hemorrhage, banding ligation and glue injection are first-line treatment options. Endoscopic ultrasound-guided therapy is gaining popularity due to its capability of precise localization for treatment targets. A self-expandable metal stent may be considered as an alternative option to balloon tamponade in refractory bleeding. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunting should be reserved as salvage therapy. In this article, we aim to provide an evidence-based comprehensive review of the major advancements in endoscopic hemostatic techniques and clinical outcomes.

Simple risk factors to predict urgent endoscopy in nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding pre-endoscopically

The goal of this study is to evaluate how to predict high-risk nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) pre-endoscopically. A total of 569 NVUGIB patients between Match 2011 and January 2015 were retrospectively studied. The clinical characteristics and laboratory data were statistically analyzed. The severity of NVUGIB was based on high-risk NVUGIB (Forrest I-IIb), and low-risk NVUGIB (Forrest IIc and III). By logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic curve, simple risk score systems were derived which predicted patients' risks of potentially needing endoscopic intervention to control bleeding. Risk score systems combined of patients' serum hemoglobin (Hb) ≤75 g/L, red hematemesis, red stool, shock, and blood urine nitrogen ≥8.5 mmol/L within 24 hours after admission were derived. As for each one of these clinical signs, the relatively high specificity was 97.9% for shock, 96.4% for red stool, 85.5% for red hematemesis, 76.7% for Hb ≤75 g/L, and the sensitivity was 50.8% for red hematemesis, 47.5% for Hb ≤75 g/L, 14.2% for red stool, and 10.9% for shock. When these 5 clinical signs were presented as a risk score system, the highest area of receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.746, with sensitivity 0.675 and specificity 0.733, which discriminated well with high-risk NVUGIB. These simple risk factors identified patients with high-risk NVUGIB of needing treatment to manage their bleeding pre-endoscopically. Further validation in the clinic was required.

Chronic liver disease and 90-day mortality in 21,359 patients following peptic ulcer bleeding--a Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Bleeding is a serious and frequent complication of peptic ulcer disease. Hepatic dysfunction can cause coagulopathy and increases the risk of peptic ulcer bleeding. However, whether chronic liver disease increases mortality after peptic ulcer bleeding remains unclear.

AIM

To examine the prognostic impact of chronic liver disease on mortality after peptic ulcer bleeding.

METHODS

We used population-based medical registries to conduct a cohort study of all Danish residents hospitalised with incident peptic ulcer bleeding from 2004 through 2011. We identified patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis or non-cirrhotic chronic liver disease before their admission for peptic ulcer bleeding. We then computed 90-day mortality after peptic ulcer bleeding based on the Kaplan-Meier method (1 - survival function) and used a Cox regression model to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRRs), controlling for potential confounders.

RESULTS

We identified 21,359 patients hospitalised with peptic ulcer bleeding. Among these, 653 (3.1%) had a previous diagnosis of liver cirrhosis and 474 (2.2%) had a history of non-cirrhotic chronic liver disease. Patients with liver cirrhosis and non-cirrhotic chronic liver disease had a cumulative 90-day mortality of 25.3% and 20.7%, respectively, compared to 18.3% among patients without chronic liver disease. Liver cirrhosis was associated with an adjusted 90-day MRR of 2.38 (95% CI: 2.02-2.80), compared to 1.49 (95% CI: 1.22-1.83) among patients with non-cirrhotic chronic liver disease.

CONCLUSION

Patients with chronic liver disease, particularly liver cirrhosis, are at increased risk of death within 90 days after hospitalisation for peptic ulcer bleeding compared to patients without chronic liver disease.

Consensus on control of risky nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in Taiwan with National Health Insurance

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To compose upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) consensus from a nationwide scale to improve the control of UGIB, especially for the high-risk comorbidity group.

METHODS

The steering committee defined the consensus scope to cover preendoscopy, endoscopy, postendoscopy, and overview from Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) assessments for UGIB. The expert group comprised thirty-two Taiwan experts of UGIB to conduct the consensus conference by a modified Delphi process through two separate iterations to modify the draft statements and to vote anonymously to reach consensus with an agreement ≥80% for each statement and to set the recommendation grade.

RESULTS

The consensus included 17 statements to highlight that patients with comorbidities, including liver cirrhosis, end-stage renal disease, probable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes, are at high risk of peptic ulcer bleeding and rebleeding. Special considerations are recommended for such risky patients, including raising hematocrit to 30% in uremia or acute myocardial infarction, aggressive acid secretory control in high Rockall scores, monitoring delayed rebleeding in uremia or cirrhosis, considering cycloxygenase-2 inhibitors plus PPI for pain control, and early resumption of antiplatelets plus PPI in coronary artery disease or stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

The consensus comprises recommendations to improve care of UGIB, especially for high-risk comorbidities.

Intravenous albumin shortens the duration of hospitalization for patients with hypoalbuminemia and bleeding peptic ulcers: a pilot study

BACKGROUND

Patients with hypoalbuminemia have an increased risk of ulcer rebleeding and longer length of hospitalization.

AIMS

This study aimed to test whether intravenous albumin can decrease the incidence of rebleeding or shorten the duration of hospitalization in patients with bleeding peptic ulcers and hypoalbuminemia.

METHODS

Sixty-two patients with bleeding peptic ulcers and Rockall scores ≥ 6 were prospectively enrolled after having received endoscopic therapy. The enrolled patients were divided into a normal albumin group (serum albumin ≥ 3 g/dL, n = 39) or an intervention group (<3 g/dL, n = 23) to receive a 3-day course of omeprazole infusion and 25-day oral esomeprazole. Patients (n = 29) with bleeding ulcers and hypoalbuminemia who received the same dose of intravenous and oral omeprazole but did not receive albumin therapy were enrolled from a previous study as the control group. In the intervention group, patients received albumin infusion (10 g q8h) for 1 day (serum albumin levels 2.5-2.9 g/dL) and 2 days (<2.5 g/dL), respectively.

RESULTS

The 28-day cumulative rebleeding rates were similar between the intervention group and the control group (39.1 vs. 42.3 %, p = 0.99). The intervention group had a shorter duration of hospitalization (9 vs. 15 days, p = 0.02) than cohort controls. The risk of rebleeding developed after discharge were similar (normal albumin group vs. intervention group vs. control group, 1/5 [20 %] vs. 2/9 [22.2 %] vs. 1/11 [9.1 %], p = 0.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Albumin administration shortens the duration of hospitalization for patients with peptic ulcer bleeding and hypoalbuminemia, but does not decrease the incidence of rebleeding.

Effect of comorbidity on mortality in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

By systematic review and meta-analysis, we sought to assess the impact of comorbidity on short-term mortality in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB).

METHODS

We conducted systematic searches in PubMed and Embase (January 1989-January 2010). Relative risks (RRs) were pooled across selected studies and an analysis of diagnostic test accuracy was performed to validate the results further.

RESULTS

Of 1,572 identified studies, 16 were eligible for inclusion. Only three had a low risk of bias and the overall quality of evidence was low. The risk of death (30-day or in-hospital mortality) was significantly greater in PUB patients with comorbidity than in those without (RR: 4.44; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.45-8.04). The pooled sensitivity for comorbidity predicting death in patients with PUB was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.66-0.95) and the pooled specificity was 0.53 (95% CI: 0.40-0.65). PUB patients with three or more comorbidities had a greater risk of dying than those with one or two (RR: 3.46; 95% CI: 1.34-8.89). All individual comorbidities that we assessed significantly increased the risk of death associated with PUB. However, RRs were higher for hepatic, renal, and malignant disease (range: 4.04-6.33; no significant heterogeneity) than for cardiovascular and respiratory disease and diabetes (2.39, 2.45, and 1.63, respectively; no significant heterogeneity).

CONCLUSIONS

Underlying comorbidity is consistently associated with increased mortality in patients with PUB. The number and type of comorbidities in patients with PUB should be carefully evaluated and factored into initial management strategies.

Intravenous proton pump inhibitors for peptic ulcer bleeding: Clinical benefits and limits

Peptic ulcer bleeding is a common disease and recurrent bleeding is an independent risk factor of mortality. Infusion with proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) prevents recurrent bleeding after successful endoscopic therapy. A gastric acidic environment of less than pH 5.4 alters coagulation function and activates pepsin to disaggregate platelet plugs. Gastric acid is secreted by H⁺, K⁺-ATPase, naming the proton pump. This update review focuses on the mechanism and the role of PPIs in the clinical management of patients with peptic ulcer bleeding. An intravenous omeprazole bolus followed by high-dose continuous infusion for 72 h after successful endoscopic therapy can prevent the recurrent bleeding. In the Asian, however, the infusion dosage can possibly be diminished whilst preserving favorable control of the intragastric pH and thereby still decreasing rates of recurrent bleeding. Irrespective of the infusion dosage of PPIs, rates of recurrent bleeding remain high in patients with co-morbidities. Because recurrent peptic ulcer bleeding may be prolonged in those with co-morbidities, a low-dose infusion of IV PPIs for up to 7-day may result in better control of recurrent bleeding of peptic ulcers. Due to the inter-patient variability in CYP2C19 genotypes, the infusion form of new generation PPIs, such as esomeprazole, should be promising for the prevention of recurrent bleeding. This article offers a comprehensive review of clinical practice, highlighting the indication, the optimal dosage, the duration, and the potential limitation of PPIs infusion for peptic ulcer bleeding.

Weak up-regulation of serum response factor in gastric ulcers in patients with co-morbidities is associated with increased risk of recurrent bleeding

Background

Serum response factor (SRF) is crucial for gastric ulcer healing process. The study determined if gastric ulcer tissues up-regulate SRF and if such up-regulation correlated with co-morbidities and the risk of recurrent bleeding.

Methods

Ulcer and non-ulcer tissues were obtained from 142 patients with active gastric ulcers for SRF expression assessed by immunohistochemistry. Based on the degree of SRF expression between these two tissue types, SRF up-regulation was classified as strong, intermediate, and weak patterns. The patients were followed-up to determine if SRF up-regulation correlated to recurrent bleeding.

Results

Gastric ulcer tissues had higher SRF expression than non-ulcer tissues (p < 0.05). Patients with strong SRF up-regulation had lower rates of stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH) on the ulcer base than the others (p < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression confirmed that co-morbidities and weak SRF up-regulation were two independent factors of recurrent gastric ulcer bleeding (p < 0.05). Combining both factors, there was an 8.29-fold (95% CI, 1.31~52.62; p = 0.03) higher risk of recurrent gastric ulcer bleeding.

Conclusions

SRF expression is higher in gastric ulcer tissues than in non-ulcer tissues. Weak SRF up-regulation, combined with the presence of co-morbidities, increase the risk of the recurrent gastric ulcer bleeding.

The relationship between mortality and inflammation in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding

The objective of this study was to investigate the association between mortality and inflammation in patients who were admitted to the emergency room with gastrointestinal bleeding. Patients (n = 96) managed at two medical centres were included in the study. Initial levels of serum C-reactive protein (CRP), haemoglobin and albumin, and leucocyte and thrombocyte counts for 28 patients who died were compared with those for the 68 patients who survived and were successfully discharged. The data were analysed using the chi(2)-test. Serum levels of CRP and leucocyte counts were significantly higher, and albumin and haemoglobin were significantly lower in patients who died compared with patients who survived. The increased levels of serum CRP and leucocyte counts, and decreased levels of albumin and haemoglobin were found to be independent risk factors for mortality. It is concluded that increased serum CRP levels and leucocyte counts combined with decreased albumin and haemoglobin levels on admission to the emergency room may be used as predictive factors of mortality in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding.

Comparison of scoring systems for the prediction of outcomes in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a prospective study

The authors aimed to compare the clinical utility of five scoring systems for the prediction of rebleeding and death in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). A total of 239 consecutive patients who had undergone endoscopy due to nonvariceal UGIB were prospectively investigated on the basis of five scoring systems (Forrest classification, Rockall scoring system, Cedars-Sinai Medical Centre Predict Index, Blatchford scoring system, and Baylor college scoring system). Thirty-five patients (14.6%) experienced rebleeding and 20 patients (8.4%) died. Comparison of the high-risk categories of the four predictive systems showed that the Forrest classification was superior to the others in predicting rebleeding and death. The Cedars-Sinai Medical Centre Predict Index and the Rockall scoring system showed high positive predictive values for predicting rebleeding and death, respectively. We concluded that the Forrest classification was the most useful scoring system for the prediction of rebleeding and death in patients with nonvariceal UGIB.