Prognostic Factors Toward Clinically Relevant Radiographic Progression in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis in Clinical Practice: A Japanese Multicenter, Prospective Longitudinal Cohort Study for Achieving a Treat-to-Target Strategy

Predictive value of baseline concomitant glucocorticoid for abatacept-mediated long-term inhibition of radiographic progression: insights from the KURAMA cohort

Abatacept (ABT) is a biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (bDMARDs) for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) when conventional synthetic DMARDs are ineffective. We aimed to evaluate the long-term effects of ABT on joint destruction in patients treated for over 2 years. Radiographic progression was evaluated using the van der Heijde-modified Total Sharp Score (mTSS) by two rheumatologists at ABT initiation and after 2 years. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with structural remission, defined as the mean annual change in mTSS ≤0.5. Among the 111 patients included, 48 discontinued, and 63 continued ABT treatment until radiographic evaluation was performed. The rate of patients who achieved estimated TSS REM (yearly progression of van der Heijde modified total Sharp scores ≤0.5) was significantly lower in ABT-dropouts than in the ABT-continued group (69% vs. 48%, p = .0336 by Fisher's exact test). Among the continued ABT cases, concomitant glucocorticoid treatment at ABT initiation was the strongest negative predictive factor of estimated TSS REM in univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Radiographic progression after ABT administration should be evaluated separately for dropout and non-dropout cases. Glucocorticoids at the initiation of ABT may serve as a predictive factor for joint destruction in long-term ABT use.

The universal presence of poor prognostic factors based on EULAR recommendations: A real-world study in 1164 Chinese RA patients

INTRODUCTION

Poor prognostic factors (PPFs) have been used in assisting therapeutic decision-making in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). There are no standard lists of PPFs for RA, and whether PPFs can guide RA treatment remains controversial.

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the profile of PPF based on EULAR recommendations in RA patients and explore the necessity of considering these PPFs in adjusting therapy.

METHODS

Prognostic factors including erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and C-reactive protein (CRP), rheumatoid factor (RF), anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA), swollen joint count (SJC), early erosions, and response to first conventional synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (csDMARD) therapy in 1164 RA patients were collected. The profile of PPFs was graphically displayed. The correlation between different PPFs was analyzed.

RESULTS

Elevated ESR/CRP was presented in 746 (64%) patients, and positive RF/ACPA in 1021 (88%) patients. Two hundred and sixty-eight (23%) patients had≥4 swollen joints. Three hundred (26%) patients had moderate or high disease activity (MDA/HDA) despite csDMARD therapy. Failure of≥2 csDMARDs was found in 30% (224/740) of patients. One hundred and fifty-three out of 459 (33%) patients had early bone erosions, usually coexisted with other PPFs. Ninety-seven percent of RA patients had≥1 PPF. Being MDA/HDA≥3 months was significantly correlated with elevated ESR/CRP or high SJC, however uncorrelated with RF/ACPA positivity or early erosions.

CONCLUSIONS

PPFs are universally present in RA patients. The reasonability of guiding treatment strategies just based on the presence or absence of PPFs requires further investigation. The categories of PPFs can be simplified and the role of different PPFs combinations in guiding treatment needs to be explored.

Baseline erythrocyte sedimentation rate level predicts long-term inhibition of radiographic progression by tocilizumab: the KURAMA cohort

The short-term effect of tocilizumab (TCZ) on the radiographic progression of rheumatoid arthritis has been reported; however, reports on its long-term effects are scarce. In this study, we aimed to evaluate its long-term effects on joint destruction in patients who had been treated with TCZ for at least two years and for whom X-rays were available. Radiographic progression was evaluated with modified Total Sharp Score (mTSS), and structural remission was defined as the mean annual change in mTSS ≤0.5. Of the 59 patients included in this study (median age, 62 years; female, 81.4%), 34 patients (57.6%) achieved structural remission. Patients who achieved structural remission were relatively younger (59 years vs. 64 years, p = .06), had relatively higher proportion of anti-citrullinated protein antibody positivity (91.2% vs. 72.0%, p = .08), relatively lower C-reactive protein level (0.6 mg/dL vs. 2.2 mg/dL, p = .05), and significantly lower erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) level (28.0 mm/h vs 65.5 mm/h, p = .003) than those who did not. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the baseline ESR level was significantly associated with structural remission (odds ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval: 0.96-0.99, p = .049). The baseline ESR level is a critical determinant of the long-term effect of TCZ on joint destruction.

Difficult-to-treat rheumatoid arthritis: Current concept and unsolved problems

Over the past several decades, the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has advanced significantly, and clinical, structural, and functional remission are achievable therapeutic goals. However, a substantial number of patients show resistance to multiple drugs. In particular, patients whose disease activity cannot be controlled despite the use of two or more biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) or targeted synthetic DMARDs (tsDMARDs) with different mechanisms of action (MOA) have recently been referred to as having difficult-to-treat RA (D2T RA). D2T RA is a heterogeneous and multifactorial disease state, and the major problems are uncontrolled disease activity and decreased quality of life, as well as the economic burden due to frequent healthcare utilization and multiple admissions. Since the concept of D2T RA is relatively new and publication regarding D2T RA is limited, the mechanism underlying DMARD inefficacy and which factors form a "difficult-to-treat" state in such patients are not yet fully understood. It is also possible that factors contributing to D2T RA may differ by patient, sex, country, and race. The present Mini Review introduces the current concept and unsolved problems of D2T RA, including the definition, prevalence, and factors contributing to D2T RA. We then discuss the management and therapeutic strategies for D2T RA. Finally, we explore a clinical approach to prevent patients from developing D2T RA.

Multidisciplinary Approach to Prevent de novo Hepatitis B in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis

The reactivation of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is currently a social problem. Our hospital has established a project team, which consisted of medical staff including doctors, nurses, pharmacists, and technicians, to prevent HBV reactivation and subsequent de novo hepatitis B in 2015. To verify the usefulness of the team, we aimed to examine the implementation rate of HBV screening tests in patients with RA in 2011, 2015, and 2018. We also examined the rate of HBV infection, as well as the rate of HBV reactivation during the course. In this study, medical records of patients who visited our hospital in 2011, 2015, and 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. HBV screening was completed when hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), hepatitis B surface antibody (HBsAb), and hepatitis B core antibody (HBcAb) were all examined. The prevalence of patients who completed HBV screening dramatically increased from 2.4% in 2011 to 79.1% in 2015 and 86.9% in 2018. Patients who completed the screening had significantly higher rates of liver dysfunction, methotrexate use, and use of biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs than those who did not. Of the 767 patients who completed HBV screening in 2018, 157 patients (20.5%) had previously resolved HBV infection (HBsAg-negative but HBsAb- and/or HBcAb-positive). During a mean follow-up of 41.0 months, reactivation of HBV was observed in 10 out of the 157 patients (6.4%); however, none developed de novo hepatitis B. In conclusion, our multidisciplinary approach to prevent de novo hepatitis B is considered useful.

Maintenance to target was associated with radiological outcomes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a real-world observational cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effect of different maintenance to target on radiologic outcomes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in real-world setting.

METHODS

RA patients enrolled were screened from a longitudinal cohort. The radiographies were evaluated at baseline, after 1-2 years and thereafter every 2 years. An increase of mTSS > 3 from baseline was taken as the primary outcome and accelerated annual radiological progression as the secondary outcome of radiological progression. The maintenance rate (MR) to target was calculated as the proportion of the year fulfilling preset criteria of target over the whole follow-up period. COX regression and logistic analysis were used to determine the effect of variables on radiological outcomes.

RESULTS

Two hundred forty-three patients were enrolled, with median follow-up of 2 years (3.00). Radiological progression was observed in 43 (17.7%) patients, with annual increase of mTSS 0.20 (1.33). In multivariate analysis, MR was the only independent protective factor of both primary and secondary radiological outcomes in two models [HR 0.09, 95% CI (0.04, 0.22), p < 0.001, model 1; OR 0.21, 95% CI (0.09, 0.49), p < 0.001, model 2]. ACPA positivity was another independent risk factor of secondary outcome [OR 2.96, 95% CI (1.27, 6.86), p = 0.012]. Higher MR was also associated with less radiological progression in established RA patients. Partial MR was not inferior to full maintenance within 4 years in terms of halting radiological progression.

CONCLUSION

Low MR and ACPA positivity were independent risk factors of poor radiological outcomes in RA patients. No significant difference in radiological progression could be detected between partial and full maintenance group within 4 years in daily practice.

KEY POINTS

• The first study showing that maintenance to target is beneficial to bone protection in established RA patients in real-world setting • No difference in radiological outcomes between partial and full maintenance group within 4 years.

Noninferiority Trials to Evaluate Drug Effects in Rheumatoid Arthritis

OBJECTIVE

The increased availability of highly effective treatments in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) necessitates a reexamination of study designs evaluating new treatments. We undertook this study to discuss possible specifications and considerations of noninferiority (NI) trials assessing drug effects in RA.

METHODS

We focused on the use of approved tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi) as potential active controls and reviewed previous placebo-controlled studies. We summarized the similarities in baseline characteristics and study design of the historical placebo-controlled studies used. After performing meta-analyses to estimate the effects of TNFi on symptoms, physical function, and radiographic progression in RA, we proposed NI margins and evaluated the feasibility of NI trials in this therapeutic setting.

RESULTS

We determined that an NI trial comparing an experimental treatment to a TNFi using the symptomatic end point of the American College of Rheumatology 20% improvement criteria response can feasibly provide evidence of a treatment effect, with a 12% absolute difference as one possible appropriate NI margin. For change from baseline in the Health Assessment Questionnaire disability index score, reasonable margins range from 0.10 to 0.12. In evaluating radiographic progression, an appropriate margin and the corresponding feasibility of the trial are dependent on the selected active control and the expected variability in progression.

CONCLUSION

Active-controlled studies in RA with justified NI margins can provide persuasive evidence of treatment effects on symptomatic, functional, and radiographic end points. Such studies can also provide reliable, controlled safety data and relevant information for treatment decisions in clinical practice. Thus, we recommend considering NI designs in future clinical trials in RA.

Factors associated with successful discontinuation of certolizumab pegol in early rheumatoid arthritis

AIM

The Certolizumab-Optimal Prevention of joint damage for Early Rheumatoid Arthritis (C-OPERA) study demonstrated that in methotrexate (MTX)-naïve early RA patients with poor prognostic factors, 1-year certolizumab pegol (CZP) therapy added to the first year of 2-year optimized MTX therapy brings radiographic and clinical benefits through 2 years even after stopping CZP. This exploratory analysis aimed to identify factors at baseline and at CZP discontinuation associated with successful CZP discontinuation.

METHODS

MTX-naïve early RA patients with poor prognostic factors entered C-OPERA (NCT01451203), a multicenter, randomized controlled trial. Patients were randomized to CZP + MTX (n = 159) or PBO + MTX (n = 157); those who completed the 1-year, double-blind period received MTX alone in Year 2 (CZP + MTX→MTX, n = 108; PBO + MTX→MTX, n = 71). Association between factors at baseline or at discontinuation of CZP and clinical/radiographic outcomes were evaluated by multiple logistic regression analysis. Predictive value cut-offs were calculated using receiver operating characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

Sex (male) and low baseline Disease Activity Score of 28 joints - erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) were associated with simple disease activity index (SDAI) remission (≤3.3), whereas high baseline DAS28-ESR and modified total Sharp score (mTSS) were associated with clinically relevant radiographic progression (yearly progression mTSS > 3) at Week 104 (across both treatment arms). Low DAS28-ESR (<2.1) and rheumatoid factor (RF; <74 IU/mL) at discontinuation of CZP were associated with SDAI remission at Week 104. At Week 104, SDAI remission was achieved by 75.0% (42/56) of patients with low DAS28-ESR and RF at discontinuation, compared to 15.4% (2/13) of patients with high DAS28-ESR and RF.

CONCLUSION

Patients with low RF and low disease activity after treatment with CZP + MTX may be able to discontinue CZP without risk of loss of response.

Clinical predictors of inadequate response to conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARDs) including methotrexate (MTX) in untreated rheumatoid arthritis patients: A single-center observational study

Objectives: To investigate predictors of inadequate response to first conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARDs) including methotrexate (MTX) in untreated rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in daily clinical practice.Methods: Inadequate response to MTX or other csDMARDs was defined as being not low disease activity at 12 months in more than 3 of 4 composite measures, and discontinuation or start of biologic DMARDs. The association between baseline factors and csDMARDs-IR was assessed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.Results: Four hundred and eleven and 146 patients were started on MTX and other csDMARDs, respectively; 218 patients were responsive to MTX, with a response rate of 47.0%. Tender joint count (TJC, ≥6 in 28joints, odds ratio [OR] = 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-2.64) and CRP (≥1.0 mg/dL, OR = 1.72, 95%CI: 1.10-2.70) at baseline were identified as predictors on multivariate logistic regression analysis. TJC (OR = 3.60, 95%CI: 1.29-10.00) was the factor identified as a predictor of the development of other csDMARDs-IR.Conclusion: In this observational study, patients with untreated RA at risk of inadequate response to MTX included those with a higher TJC and higher CRP, while a higher TJC was the only independent predictor of an inadequate response to csDMARDs other than MTX.

Anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies are the strongest predictor of clinically relevant radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis patients achieving remission or low disease activity: A post hoc analysis of a nationwide cohort in Japan

Objectives

To determine prognostic factors of clinically relevant radiographic progression (CRRP) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) achieving remission or low disease activity (LDA) in clinical practice.

Methods

Using data from a nationwide, multicenter, prospective study in Japan, we evaluated 198 biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (bDMARD)-naïve RA patients who were in remission or had LDA at study entry after being treated with conventional synthetic DMARDs (csDMARDs). CRRP was defined as the yearly progression of modified total Sharp score (mTSS) >3.0 U. We performed a multiple logistic regression analysis to explore the factors to predict CRRP at 1 year. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to estimate the performance of relevant variables for predicting CRRP.

Results

The mean Disease Activity Score in 28 joints-erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) was 2.32 ± 0.58 at study entry. During the 1-year observation, remission or LDA persisted in 72% of the patients. CRRP was observed in 7.6% of the patients. The multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that the independent variables to predict the development of CRRP were: anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA) positivity at baseline (OR = 15.2, 95%CI 2.64–299), time-integrated DAS28-ESR during the 1 year post-baseline (7.85-unit increase, OR = 1.83, 95%CI 1.03–3.45), and the mTSS at baseline (13-unit increase, OR = 1.22, 95%CI 1.06–1.42).

Conclusions

ACPA positivity was the strongest independent predictor of CRRP in patients with RA in remission or LDA. Physicians should recognize ACPA as a poor-prognosis factor regarding the radiographic outcome of RA, even among patients showing a clinically favorable response to DMARDs.

A reduced 12-joint ultrasound examination predicts lack of X-ray progression better than clinical remission criteria in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

To study the predictive value of clinical remission definitions and ultrasound (US) examination on X-ray progression in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). This was an observational prospective multicenter 1-year follow-up cohort of RA patients with moderate disease activity (3.2 < DAS28 ≤ 5.1) who started anti-TNF therapy. DAS28ESR, DAS28CRP, SDAI, CDAI, and ACR/EULAR remission criteria were applied and reduced 12-joint US examination was performed at baseline and at 6 and 12 months. At baseline and month 12, radiographs of hands and feet were obtained in a subset of patients. A blind independent reader scored radiographs. X-ray progression was defined as Sharp van der Heijde change score >1 and no progression was defined as ≤0. 319 of 357 patients completed the study; patients had a mean (SD) age of 53.5 (13.1) years, with a disease duration of 7.5 (7.1) years. Laboratory, clinical, and US values significantly improved at month 6, except CRP, with additional improvement at month 12. Remission and low disease activity rates increased at follow-up. In the subset of 115 patients with radiological studies, clinical remission by any definition was not significantly associated with X-ray progression. Patients without PD signal at baseline and month 6 were a lower risk of X-ray progression than patients with PD signal, OR 0.197 (95% CI 0.046-0.861) and 0.134 (95% CI 0.047-0.378), respectively. Absence of PD signal, but not clinical remission predicts lack of X-ray progression. A feasible 12-joint US examination may add relevant information to RA remission criteria.

Poor prognostic factors guiding treatment decisions in rheumatoid arthritis patients: a review of data from randomized clinical trials and cohort studies

Prognostic factors are used for treatment decisions in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). High disease activity, the early presence of erosions, and autoantibody positivity are the most frequently used poor prognostic factors but other features, such as functional disability, extraarticular disease, or multibiomarkers, are also assessed. Prognostic factors are incorporated in current treatment recommendations for the management of RA and are used as inclusion criteria in randomized controlled trials. They are defined heterogeneously and the relevance of a single or combined presence of poor prognostic factors remains unclear. This review summarizes the current definitions of poor prognostic factors and their use in clinical research. Perspectives on future research are also outlined.