Prediction of mortality and organ failure based on coagulation and fibrinolysis markers in patients with acute pancreatitis: A retrospective study

Early prediction of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis via dynamic changes of leukocyte: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) remains a major concern for clinicians. Hence early identification of PEP is meaningful to minimize medical risks.

AIMS

This study aims to explore the value of dynamic leukocyte changes for early prediction of PEP.

METHODS

Patients from January 2017 to December 2018 (training set) and January 2019 to December 2022 (test set) were retrospectively reviewed. The dynamic changes of leukocyte, neutrophil, and lymphocyte were examined to evaluate the diagnostic value of PEP.

RESULTS

A total of 498 patients (36 PEP cases) in training set and 948 patients (71 PEP cases) in test set were analyzed. Four predictors were finally identified in training set containing margin and ratio of 3h-post ERCP leukocyte count (Po Leu) to pre-ERCP leukocyte count (Pr Leu), 3h post-ERCP neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and pre-ERCP fibrinogen levels. ROC analysis revealed the optimal thresholds were 2.3 (x109/L), 1.6, 4.8 and 3.1 (g/L), respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of Po Leu - Pr Leu and Po Leu/Pr Leu were 71.0%, 82.7%, 66.1% and 86.3% to diagnosis PEP in patients with hyperamylasemia.

CONCLUSIONS

For early identification of PEP, the elevation of amylase and lipase still exhibits the highest sensitivity, while the dynamic changes of leukocyte would be helpful for the different diagnosis of hyperamylasemia.

Establishment and Validation of an Early Predictive Model for Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Objective

The purpose of this study is to establishment and validation of an early predictive model for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

Methods

From January 2015 to August 2022, 2986 AP patients admitted to Changsha Central Hospital were enrolled in this study. They were randomly divided into a modeling group (n = 2112) and a validation group (n = 874). In the modeling group, identify risk factors through logistic regression models and draw column charts. Use internal validation method to verify the accuracy of column chart prediction. Apply calibration curves to evaluate the consistency between nomograms and ideal observations. Draw a DCA curve to evaluate the net benefits of the prediction model.

Results

Nine variables including respiratory rate, heart rate, WBC, PDW, PT, SCR, AMY, CK, and TG are the risk factors for SAP. The column chart risk prediction model which was constructed based on these 9 independent factors has high prediction accuracy (modeling group AUC = 0.788, validation group AUC = 7.789). The calibration curve analysis shows that the prediction probabilities of the modeling and validation groups are consistent with the observation probabilities. By drawing a DCA curve, it shows that the model has a wide threshold range (0.01-0.88).

Conclusion

The study developed an intuitive nomogram containing readily available laboratory parameters to predict the incidence rate of SAP.

Predictive value of thrombin-antithrombin III complex and tissue plasminogen activator-inhibitor complex biomarkers in assessing the severity of early-stage acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The development of acute pancreatitis (AP) is strongly linked to blood clotting and fibrinolysis issues. Modern clinical practices now utilize advanced blood markers like thrombin-antithrombin III complex (TAT), plasmin-α2-plasmin inhibitor complex, thrombomodulin (TM), and tissue plasminogen activator-inhibitor complex (t-PAIC) to assess thrombosis risk. Our study used a highly sensitive chemiluminescence technique to measure these markers in AP patients, aiming to determine their early predictive value for AP severity.

METHODS

There were 173 patients with AP, all of whom developed symptoms within 72 h; 102 individuals had onset symptoms within 48 h. The biomarkers were measured upon admission before determining the severity of AP.

RESULTS

The levels of TAT, plasmin-α2-plasmin inhibitor complex, TM, and t-PAIC were significantly higher in the severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) group compared with the mild acute pancreatitis and moderate severe acute pancreatitis groups. For the patients within 72 h of onset, TAT, TM, and t-PAIC predicted the occurrence of SAP. For the patients within 48 h of onset, TAT and t-PAIC predicted the occurrence of SAP. The area under the curve (AUC) of prediction models is similar to Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) but significantly higher than C-reactive protein (P < 0.05). Notably, t-PAIC had a larger AUC than TAT, BISAP, and C-reactive protein.

CONCLUSION

In the initial 48 h, plasma TAT and t-PAIC levels may predict the development of SAP. Within 72 h, plasma levels of TAT, TM, and t-PAIC may predict the development of SAP, and the TAT + TM + t-PAIC prediction model achieved a maximum AUC of 0.915, comparable to BISAP.

Risk Factors for Death in Patients with Severe Acute Pancreatitis in Guizhou Province, China

Aim

To compare the clinical characteristics of survival and nonsurvival patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and explore the risk of mortality in SAP patients.

Methods

This was a single-center retrospective study performed in a severe acute pancreatitis diagnosis and treatment center. According to the outcome, SAP patients were divided into survival group and nonsurvival group. One-way ANOVA or independent t-test was used to compare the clinical characteristics of two groups of patients. Multivariate retrospective analysis was used to identify risk factors for mortality in SAP patients.

Results

A total of 486 SAP patients were included in the study, and the 90-day mortality for SAP patients was 13.58%. The common etiologies of SAP are biliary tract diseases (69.75%) and hyperlipidemia (17.28%). The most common complications caused by SAP were organ failure (55.14%), ARDS (50.62%), AKI (30.45%), sepsis (27.16%), and abdominal fluid collection (27.57%). There were differences in age, complications, and medical intervention between the nonsurvival group and the survival group. The main causes of death were infection (46.97%), abdominal bleeding (28.79%), and organ failure (9.09%). The binary logistic regression analysis showed that there were significant differences in age, AKI, sepsis, abdominal hemorrhage, organ failure, laparotomy, creatinine, and APTT between the nonsurvival group and the survival group.

Conclusion

Age, AKI, sepsis, abdominal hemorrhage, and organ failure are risk factors for mortality in SAP patients. SAP patients with high creatinine and prolonged APTT upon admission require doctors to be vigilant. The main cause of death in SAP patients is pancreatitis-related organ failure and secondary infection.

Development and validation of a prediction model for the early occurrence of acute kidney injury in patients with acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is associated with a high incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI). This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the early onset of AKI in AP patients admitted to the intensive care unit.

METHOD

Clinical data for 799 patients diagnosed with AP were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database. Eligible AP patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. The independent prognostic factors for the early development of AKI in AP patients were determined using the all-subsets regression method and multivariate logistic regression. A nomogram was constructed for predicting the early occurrence of AKI in AP patients. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Seven independent prognostic factors were identified as predictive factors for early onset AKI in AP patients. The AUC of the nomogram in the training and validation cohorts were 0.795 (95% CI, 0.758-0.832) and 0.772 (95% CI, 0.711-0.832), respectively. The AUC of the nomogram was higher compared with that of the BISAP, Ranson, APACHE II scores. Further, the calibration curve revealed that the predicted outcome was in agreement with the actual observations. Finally, the DCA curves showed that the nomogram had a good clinical applicability value.

CONCLUSION

The constructed nomogram showed a good predictive ability for the early occurrence of AKI in AP patients.

Predictive value of D-dimer and fibrinogen degradation product for splanchnic vein thrombosis in patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a single-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Early diagnosis of splanchnic vein thrombosis (SVT) after severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) remains difficult because of its insidious onset. Common serum markers for thrombosis such as D-dimer (D-D) have lost their diagnostic value due to their elevation in non-thrombotic patients with SAP. The aim of this study is to predict SVT after SAP using common serum indicators of thrombosis by establishing a new cut-off value.

METHODS

177 SAP patients were included in a retrospective cohort study from September 2019 to September 2021. Patient demographics, dynamic changes of coagulation and fibrinolysis indicators were collected. Univariate analyses and binary logistic regression analyses were applied to assess potential risk factors for the development of SVT in SAP patients. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated to assess the predictive value of independent risk factors. Moreover, clinical complications and outcomes were compared between two groups.

RESULTS

Among 177 SAP patients, 32 (18.1%) developed SVT. The most common cause of SAP was biliary (49.8%), followed by hypertriglyceridemia (21.5%). Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that D-D (OR, 1.135; 95%CI, 1.043-1.236; p = 0.003) and fibrinogen degradation product (FDP) (OR, 1.037; 95%CI, 1.015-1.060; p = 0.001) were independent risk factors for SVT development in patients with SAP. The area under ROC curve for D-D was 0.891 (p = 0.003, sensitivity= 95.3%, specificity = 74.1%) at a cut-off value of 6.475, and the area under ROC curve for FDP was 0.858 (p = 0.001, sensitivity = 89.4%, specificity = 72.4%) at a cut-off value of 23.155.

CONCLUSION

D-D and FDP are significant independent risk factors with high predictive value for SVT in patients with SAP.

Administration of Warfarin Inhibits the Development of Cerulein-Induced Edematous Acute Pancreatitis in Rats

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe disease with high morbidity and mortality in which inflammation and coagulation play crucial roles. The development of inflammation leads to vascular injury, endothelium and leukocytes stimulation, and an increased level of tissue factor, which results in the activation of the coagulation process. For this reason, anticoagulants may be considered as a therapeutic option in AP. Previous studies have shown that pretreatment with heparin, low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH), or acenocoumarol inhibits the development of AP. The aim of the present study was to check if pretreatment with warfarin affects the development of edematous pancreatitis evoked by cerulein. Warfarin (90, 180, or 270 µg/kg/dose) or saline were administered intragastrically once a day for 7 days consecutively before the induction of AP. AP was evoked by the intraperitoneal administration of cerulein. The pre-administration of warfarin at doses of 90 or 180 µg/kg/dose reduced the histological signs of pancreatic damage in animals with the induction of AP. Additionally, other parameters of AP, such as an increase in the serum activity of lipase and amylase, the plasma concentration of D-dimer, and interleukin-1β, were decreased. In addition, pretreatment with warfarin administered at doses of 90 or 180 µg/kg/dose reversed the limitation of pancreatic blood flow evoked by AP development. Warfarin administered at a dose of 270 µg/kg/dose did not exhibit a preventive effect in cerulein-induced AP. Conclusion: Pretreatment with low doses of warfarin inhibits the development of AP evoked by the intraperitoneal administration of cerulein.

Pathogenesis and Therapy of Coagulation Disorders in Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Ischemia superimposed upon pancreatic edema leads to acute necrotizing pancreatitis. One possible mechanism contributing to ischemia is intravascular thrombogenesis since fibrin deposits have been detected in pancreatic capillaries by electron microscope. Current experimental and clinical data provided compelling evidence that the disorders in the blood coagulation system play a critical role in the pathogenesis of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). This leads to microcirculatory failure of intra- and extrapancreatic organs and multiple organ failure and increases the case fatality rate. However, the mechanism of coagulopathy underlying SAP is not yet clear, although some anticoagulant drugs have entered clinical practice showing improvement in prognosis. Thus, enhanced understanding of the process might improve the treatment strategies with safety and high efficacy. Herein, the pathogenesis of the coagulation system of SAP was reviewed with a focus on the coagulation pathway, intercellular interactions, and complement system, thereby illustrating some anticoagulant therapies and potential therapeutic targets.

Machine learning algorithm as a prognostic tool for venous thromboembolism in allogeneic transplant patients

As a serious complication after allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT), venous thromboembolism (VTE) is significantly related to increased nonrelapse mortality. Therefore distinguishing patients at high risk of death who should receive specific therapeutic management is key to improving survival. This study aimed to establish a machine learning-based prognostic model for the identification of post-transplantation VTE patients who have a high risk of death. We retrospectively evaluated 256 consecutive VTE patients who underwent allo-HSCT at our center between 2008 and 2019. These patients were further randomly divided into (1) a derivation (80%) cohort of 205 patients and (2) a test (20%) cohort of 51 patients. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) approach was used to choose the potential predictors from the primary dataset. Eight machine learning classifiers were used to produce 8 candidate models. A 10-fold cross-validation procedure was used to internally evaluate the models and to select the best-performing model for external assessment using the test cohort. In total, 256 of 7238 patients were diagnosed with VTE after transplantation. Among them, 118 patients (46.1%) had catheter-related venous thrombosis, 107 (41.8%) had isolated deep-vein thrombosis (DVT), 20 (7.8%) had isolated pulmonary embolism (PE), and 11 (4.3%) had concomitant DVT and PE. The 2-year overall survival (OS) rate of patients with VTE was 68.8%. Using LASSO regression, 8 potential features were selected from the 54 candidate variables. The best-performing algorithm based on the 10-fold cross-validation runs was a logistic regression classifier. Therefore a prognostic model named BRIDGE was then established to predict the 2-year OS rate. The areas under the curves of the BRIDGE model were 0.883, 0.871, and 0.858 for the training, validation, and test cohorts, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed a high agreement between the predicted and observed outcomes. Decision curve analysis indicated that VTE patients could benefit from the clinical application of the prognostic model. A BRIDGE risk score calculator for predicting the study result is available online (47.94.162.105:8080/bridge/). We established the BRIDGE model to precisely predict the risk for all-cause death in VTE patients after allo-HSCT. Identifying VTE patients who have a high risk of death can help physicians treat these patients in advance, which will improve patient survival.

Low antithrombin levels are associated with low risk of cardiovascular death but are a risk factor for cancer mortality

Background

Thrombosis is common in subjects suffering from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cancer. Hypercoagulation plays a pivotal role in the pathophysiology of thrombosis. Therefore, the inactivation of thrombin, the key enzyme in coagulation, is tightly regulated via antithrombin (AT). AT deficiency is related to thrombosis and cardiovascular death. In this study we investigated the association between AT levels and mortality, in particularly cardiovascular-related and cancer-related death in the general population.

Methods

We studied the association of AT levels and mortality in a prospective cohort sampled from the general Italian population (n = 19,676). AT levels were measured in the baseline samples, and mortality was recorded during a median follow-up period of 8.2 years. Cox regression was performed to investigate the association of all-cause, CVD-related and cancer-related mortality with variations in AT levels.

Results

In total, 989 subjects died during follow-up, of which 373 subjects of CVD and 353 of cancer-related causes. Cox analysis revealed that, after adjustment for age, sex, current smoking, BMI, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, history of cardiovascular disease, history of cancer, vitamin K antagonists, antiplatelet medication, heparin and oral contraceptives AT levels were not associated with all-cause mortality (HRQ1vsQ5: 0.92, 95% CI:0.74–1.15). Interestingly, the risk of CVD-related mortality was reduced in subjects with low AT levels compared to subjects with higher AT levels, after adjustment for age and sex and other confounders did not change the association (HRQ1vsQ5: 0.64, 95% CI:0.44–0.91). Moreover, low AT levels were associated with increased cancer mortality in a fully adjusted model (HRQ1vsQ2-5: 1.26, 95% CI:0.88–1.81).

Conclusions

Low AT levels are associated to a lower risk of fatal cardiovascular events in the general population, regardless of age, sex and medication use. In contrast, low AT levels are associated with lower cancer survival. For the first time we show that AT levels lower than the normal range in the general population, even before the development or diagnosis of cancer, are associated with an elevated risk of cancer death.

Development and validation of a risk prediction score for the severity of acute hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis in Chinese patients

BACKGROUND

The frequency of acute hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (AHTGP) is increasing worldwide. AHTGP may be associated with a more severe clinical course and greater mortality than pancreatitis caused by other causes. Early identification of patients with severe inclination is essential for clinical decision-making and improving prognosis. Therefore, we first developed and validated a risk prediction score for the severity of AHTGP in Chinese patients.

AIM

To develop and validate a risk prediction score for the severity of AHTGP in Chinese patients.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study including 243 patients with AHTGP. Patients were randomly divided into a development cohort (n = 170) and a validation cohort (n = 73). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and logistic regression were used to screen 42 potential predictive variables to construct a risk score for the severity of AHTGP. We evaluated the performance of the nomogram and compared it with existing scoring systems. Last, we used the best cutoff value (88.16) for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) to determine the risk stratification classification.

RESULTS

Age, the reduction in apolipoprotein A1 and the presence of pleural effusion were independent risk factors for SAP and were used to construct the nomogram (risk prediction score referred to as AAP). The concordance index of the nomogram in the development and validation groups was 0.930 and 0.928, respectively. Calibration plots demonstrate excellent agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities in SAP patients. The area under the curve of the nomogram (0.929) was better than those of the Bedside Index of Severity in AP (BISAP), Ranson, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), modified computed tomography severity index (MCTSI), and early achievable severity index scores (0.852, 0.825, 0.807, 0.831 and 0.807, respectively). In comparison with these scores, the integrated discrimination improvement and decision curve analysis showed improved accuracy in predicting SAP and better net benefits for clinical decisions. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine risk stratification classification for AHTGP by dividing patients into high-risk and low-risk groups according to the best cutoff value (88.16). The high-risk group (> 88.16) was closely related to the appearance of local and systemic complications, Ranson score ≥ 3, BISAP score ≥ 3, MCTSI score ≥ 4, APACHE II score ≥ 8, C-reactive protein level ≥ 190, and length of hospital stay.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram could help identify AHTGP patients who are likely to develop SAP at an early stage, which is of great value in guiding clinical decisions.

[Association between coagulation function and prognosis in patients with acute pancreatitis]

OBJECTIVE

To explore the correlation of coagulation function with the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP) and identify the laboratory markers for early prediction and dynamic monitoring of the prognosis of AP.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of patients with AP admitted less than 72 h after onset to our hospital from December 1, 2017 to November 30, 2018. The correlation of coagulation function-related markers at admission and their changes during hospitalization with the prognosis of the patients was analyzed.

RESULTS

We screened the data of a total of 1260 patients with AP against the inclusion and exclusion criteria, and eventually 175 patients were enrolled in this analysis, among whom 52 patients had severe AP (SAP) and 12 patients died. Logistic regression analysis identified vWF: Ag, PT, PC, AT Ⅲ and D-dimer markers at admission as independent risk factors for predicting SAP and death. Dynamic monitoring of the changes in coagulation function-related markers in the disease course had greater predictive value of the patients' prognosis, and the indicators including vWF: Ag_max, PT_max, APTT_max, TT_max, FIB_min, D-dimer_max, PLT_min, PC_min, PLG_min, AT Ⅲ_min, and their variations were all independent risk factors for predicting SAP and death. ROC analysis suggested that dynamic monitoring of the changes in the indicators, especially those of △vWF: Ag, △PT, △APTT, △FIB, △TT, △D-dimer, △PLT, △PC, △AT Ⅲ, △PLG, could effectively predict SAP and death in these patients (with AUC range of 0.63-0.84).

CONCLUSION

Patients with AP have vascular endothelial injuries and coagulation disorders. The markers including vWF: Ag, PT, PC, AT Ⅲ and D-dimer at admission are independent risk factors for predicting SAP and death, and dynamic monitoring of the changes in vWF: Ag、PT、APTT、TT、FIB、D-dimer、PLT、PC、AT Ⅲ and PLG can further increase the predictive value.

Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting Thrombocytopenia in Adults with Acute Pancreatitis

Objective

Thrombocytopenia increases the risk of hemorrhage in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), leading to poor clinical outcomes. Currently, there is no reliable tool for the early assessment of thrombocytopenia in these patients. We aimed to develop a nomogram based on available clinical parameters and validate its efficacy in predicting thrombocytopenia.

Methods

This was a retrospective study. All the data were extracted from an electronic database from May 2018 to May 2019. Patients with a diagnosis of AP and staying in the intensive care unit for more than 3 days were retrospectively analyzed. A clinical signature was built based on reproducible features, using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method (LASSO), and logistic regression established the model (P < 0.05). Nomogram performance was determined by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness.

Results

A total of 594 eligible patients were enrolled, of whom 399 were allocated to the training sets and the 195 in the test sets. The clinical features, including blood urea nitrogen (BUN), fibrinogen (FIB), and antithrombase III, were significantly associated with the incidence of thrombocytopenia after acute pancreatitis (p < 0.05) in training sets. The individualized nomogram showed good discrimination in the training sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.881) and in the validation sample (AUC, 0.883) with good calibration.

Conclusion

The proposed nomogram has good performance for predicting thrombocytopenia in patients with acute pancreatitis and may facilitate clinical decision-making.

Liver injury associated with acute pancreatitis: The current status of clinical evaluation and involved mechanisms

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a very common acute disease, and the mortality rate of severe AP (SAP) is between 15% and 35%. The main causes of death are multiple organ dysfunction syndrome and infections. The mortality rate of patients with SAP related to liver failure is as high as 83%, and approximately 5% of the SAP patients have fulminant liver failure. Liver function is closely related to the progression and prognosis of AP. In this review, we aim to elaborate on the clinical manifestations and mechanism of liver injury in patients with AP.

Nomogram for the prediction of in-hospital incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) associated with high mortality is the common complication in acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of this study was to formulate and validate an individualized predictive nomogram for in-hospital incidence of ARDS in Patients with AP.

METHOD

From January 2017 to December 2018, 779 individuals with AP were involved in this study. They were randomly distributed into primary cohort (n=560) and validation cohort (n=219). Based on the primary cohort, risk factors were identified by logistic regression model and a nomogram was performed. The nomogram was validated in the primary and validation cohort by the bootstrap validation method. The calibration curve was applied to evaluate the consistency between the nomogram and the ideal observation.

RESULTS

There were 728 patients in the non-ARDS group and 51 in the ARDS group, with an incidence of about 6.55%. Five independent factors including white blood cell counts (WBC), prothrombin time (PT), albumin (ALB), serum creatinine (SCR) and triglyceride (TG) were associated with in-hospital incidence of ARDS in Patients with AP. A nomogram was constructed based on the five independent factors with primary cohort of AUC=0.821 and validation cohort of AUC=0.823. Calibration curve analysis indicated that the predicted probability was in accordance with the observed probability in both primary and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The study developed an intuitive nomogram with easily available laboratory parameters for the prediction of in-hospital incidence of ARDS in patients with AP. The incidence of ARDS for an individual patient can be fast and conveniently evaluated by our nomogram.