Prediction of esophageal varices in hepatic cirrhosis by noninvasive markers

Endoscopic band ligation is safe despite low platelet count and high INR

BACKGROUND

Prophylactic endoscopic band ligation (EBL) is used to prevent variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. The association of thrombocytopenia, high INR (international normalized ratio) and liver dysfunction with the risk of procedure-related bleeding (PRB) remains debated and recommendations are controversial.

METHODS

We analyzed real-life data of cirrhotic patients undergoing elective EBL at two large Viennese centers between Q1/2000-Q1/2018. PRB was defined as bleeding occurring within 30 days after EBL.

RESULTS

We included 617 patients undergoing a total of 1178 prophylactic EBL procedures (median 2 per patient). Sixteen (2.6%) of 617 patients experienced PRB after a median of 12.5 (IQR 17.3) days with no difference in characteristics and laboratory values between the two groups. The proportion of patients with platelets (PLT) < 50 G/L or INR ≥ 1.5 was similar in patients with vs. without PRB. A higher MELD showed a non-significant association with EBL-related bleeding risk (odds ratio, OR 1.07; 95% confidence interval 95% CI 1.00-1.16, p = 0.058). While serum bilirubin was a significant predictor for PRB (OR: 1.10; 95% CI 1.03-1.18), the presence of large varices (OR 0.85 vs. small varices; 95% CI 0.20-3.84), INR (OR 0.50; 95% CI 0.10-3.14), PLT (OR 1.00; 95% CI 1.00-1.01) and the use of non-selective betablockers (OR 1.20; CI 95% 0.38-3.76) were not associated with PRB.

CONCLUSION

EBL is safe and procedure-related bleedings are rare (2.6%) including in patients with thrombocytopenia < 50 G/L or high INR ≥ 1.5. Only high MELD, and especially high bilirubin seem to be linked to an increased risk of EBL-related bleeding.

Correlation between Platelet Count and Grading of Esophageal Varices in Liver Cirrhosis Patients: A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND: Esophageal varices are a major complication of liver cirrhosis. Esophageal varices bleeding is life-threatening and an urgent medical emergency. Low platelet count and esophageal varices are common findings in liver cirrhosis. Platelet count is suggested as a non-invasive screening tool to predict the grading of esophageal varices in liver cirrhosis patients. Several studies have found a correlation between platelet count and grading of esophageal varices in liver cirrhosis patients. However, the results are conflicting. AIM: This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the correlation between platelet count and the grading of esophageal varices in liver cirrhosis patients. METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed through the database search from PubMed, SCOPUS, Ovid EMBASE, and EuropePMC to obtain all relevant articles with the following search terms: "correlation" and "platelet" or "thrombocytopenia" AND "esophageal varices" and "liver cirrhosis" or "chronic liver disease" that were published within the year of 2000-2021. Articles were collected by using PRISMA flow diagrams. The data were extracted from the eligible study within inclusion and exclusion criteria. The quality of each study was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS). A meta-analysis was conducted to determine the overall pooled correlation coefficient (r) and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: There were a total of 1008 patients from eight included studies. The meta-analysis showed that the pooled correlation coefficient between platelet count and grading of esophageal varices in liver cirrhosis patients was r = -0.42 (95%CI -0.65 to -0.13; p = 0.005; I2 = 96.06%). CONCLUSION: There was a moderate negative correlation between platelet count and grading of esophageal varices. Thus, low platelet count may indicate higher grades of esophageal varices in liver cirrhosis patients.

Soluble CD163 for Prediction of High-Risk Esophageal Varices and Variceal Hemorrhage in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

Activation of hepatic macrophages in liver disease is pathogenically related to portal hypertension (PH). Soluble CD163 (sCD163) is shed in blood by activated macrophages and may predict PH progression noninvasively. This study was designed to investigate the relation of serum sCD163 to the grade and bleeding risk of esophageal varices (EV) and its role for prediction of variceal hemorrhage (VH).

METHODS

The study included cirrhotic patients divided into 3 groups: patients who presented with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) proved to originate from EV on endoscopy, patients without any history of UGIB but who revealed EV on surveillance endoscopy, and patients without endoscopic evidence of varices. Variceal grade and risk signs and bleeding stigmata were noted simultaneously with measurement of serum sCD163 concentration.

RESULTS

Serum sCD163 concentration showed a significant increase in cirrhotic patients compared to healthy subjects (p < 0.001) with a stepwise increase among the group without varices, nonbleeder group, and bleeder group sequentially. Serum sCD163 levels correlated positively with the variceal grade and risk signs in both the bleeder and nonbleeder groups (p = 0.002, p < 0.001 and p = 0.004, p < 0.001, respectively). Serum sCD163 at a cutoff value of 3.6 mg/L performed significantly for prediction of EV presence (AUC = 0.888). Serum sCD163 at a cutoff value >4 mg/L significantly predicted large-size and high-risk EV (AUC = 0.910 and AUC = 0.939, respectively) and the index bleed risk (AUC = 0.977). Serum sCD163 at a cutoff value >4.05 mg/L modestly discriminated bleeding EV from those that had never bled (AUC = 0.811).

CONCLUSIONS

Serum sCD163 levels accurately predicted high-grade and high-risk EV and could help plan for primary prophylaxis. However, it modestly identified VH occurrence, and endoscopy would be required to make a definitive diagnosis.

Combination of Albumin-Bilirubin Grade and Platelet Count as a Predictor of Esophageal Varices’ Presence and Grading in Egyptian Patients with HCV Related Cirrhosis

Background:

Screening guidelines recommend that all patients who are newly diagnosed with cirrhosis should be screened for esophageal varices (EV). This study aimed at predicting the presence of esophageal varices among Egyptian hepatitis C cirrhotic patients by a combination of albumin-bilirubin grade and platelet count score (ALBI-Platelet score).

Methods:

This study was performed on 150 cirrhotic patients. Eighty- seven patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) related cirrhosis and esophageal varices formed Group (A), while Group (B) consisted of sixty-three patients with HCV related cirrhosis and no esophageal varices. Full metabolic profile, Complete blood count (CBC), ultrasonography, and endoscopy were done.

Results:

There was a significant difference between studied groups regarding serum bilirubin, serum albumin and platelet count. The cutoff point of platelets count as a predictor for esophageal varices among studied groups was <154.5. The cutoff value for albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score as a predictor for esophageal varices of any size was -1.67 with 52.9% sensitivity, 59.6% specificity, 47% negative predictive value (NPV) and 64% positive predictive value (PPV). The ALBI-Plt score >3 had 42.5%, specificity 63.5%, negative predictive value 40% and positive predictive value 65%. The cutoff value for the ALBI score representing large-sized esophageal varices was -1.27. The ALBI-Plt score >4 for large-sized varices had sensitivity 61.9%, specificity 55%, negative predictive value 59%, positive predictive value 50%.

Conclusion:

ALBI-Platelet score is a non-costly, readily available and reliable new non-invasive predictor of the presence of EV that could easily be used in screening for the presence of esophageal varices and risky large-sized esophageal varices in cases of hepatitis C Virus related hepatic cirrhosis, lessening the need for endoscopic screening.

Diagnostic Value of Non-invasive Scoring Systems in the Prediction of Esophageal Varices in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis-Single Center Experience

Background and Objectives: Upper endoscopy is considered the gold standard for screening and diagnosis of esophageal varices (EV). Non-invasive methods for predicting EV have become a research hotspot in recent years. The aim of this study was to assess the role of non-invasive scores in predicting the presence of EV in patients with liver cirrhosis, and to determine the value of these scores in predicting the outcome of patients with cirrhosis presenting with acute variceal bleeding. Materials and Methods: A total of 386 patients with liver cirrhosis were included. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (AST/ALT), AST to platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4-index (FIB-4), fibrosis index (FI), King's Score, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, and platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) score were calculated. The discriminatory capacities of the examined scores in predicting the presence of esophageal varices were tested using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results: The ROC curve analysis showed (area under the curve) AUC values of ALBI and PALBI of 0.603, and 0.606, respectively, for the prediction of EV. APRI, MELD, PALBI, King's, FIB-4, and ALBI scores showed statistically significant correlation with EV bleeding (p < 0.05). AUC of APRI and MELD for predicting EV bleeding were 0.662 and 0.637, respectively. The AUC value of MELD in short-term mortality was 0.761. Conclusions: ALBI and PALBI scores had modest diagnostic accuracy of EVs in liver cirrhosis. APRI and MELD can be used as a reference index for the EV bleeding, and MELD score is best associated with short-term outcome in cirrhotic patients.

Bacteremia as a risk factor for variceal upper gastrointestinal tract bleeding in cirrhotic patients: a hospital-based study

Background

The presence of bacteremia as a complication of variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis had been investigated by many studies. The aim of this study was to assess the bacteremia as a risk factor for variceal upper gastrointestinal tract bleeding in cirrhotic patients. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 99 patients with chronic liver disease divided into three groups: group I included 35 patients presented with first attack of variceal bleeding, group II included 35 patients presented with recurrent attacks of variceal bleeding, and group III included 29 patients with no history of previous variceal bleeding as a control group. Routine laboratory tests were done, upper GI endoscopy, blood culture, and measurement of procalcitonin level in blood.

Results

Patients with recurrent variceal bleeding had statistically (p < 0.05) the highest percentage of positive blood culture followed by patients with first variceal bleeding and the control (60% vs 45.7% vs 24.1%) respectively. In addition to procalcitonin results, patients with recurrent variceal bleeding had statistically the highest values of PCT followed by patients with first variceal bleeding and the control (1.92 vs 0.325 vs 0.22 ng/ml) respectively. Multivariate regression analysis showed that procalcitonin and hemoglobin only was the significant predictors for variceal bleeding. Hemoglobin at cutoff value of ≤ 9.6 and procalcitonin (ng/dl) at cutoff value of > 1.76 is the most specific in predicting bleeding 86.21%, 86.21% (CI 95%) respectively.

Conclusion

Bacteremia and procalcitonin are risk factor for variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients. Procalcitonin can be used as easily measurable and surrogate biomarker for bacteremia and variceal bleeding.

Clinical algorithms for the prevention of variceal bleeding and rebleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis

Portal hypertension (PH), a common complication of liver cirrhosis, results in development of esophageal varices. When esophageal varices rupture, they cause significant upper gastrointestinal bleeding with mortality rates up to 20% despite state-of-the-art treatment. Thus, prophylactic measures are of utmost importance to improve outcomes of patients with PH. Several high-quality studies have demonstrated that non-selective beta blockers (NSBBs) or endoscopic band ligation (EBL) are effective for primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding. In secondary prophylaxis, a combination of NSBB + EBL should be routinely used. Once esophageal varices develop and variceal bleeding occurs, standardized treatment algorithms should be followed to minimize bleeding-associated mortality. Special attention should be paid to avoidance of overtransfusion, early initiation of vasoconstrictive therapy, prophylactic antibiotics and early endoscopic therapy. Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt should be used in all Child C10-C13 patients experiencing variceal bleeding, and potentially in Child B patients with active bleeding at endoscopy. The use of carvedilol, safety of NSBBs in advanced cirrhosis (i.e. with refractory ascites) and assessment of hepatic venous pressure gradient response to NSBB is discussed. In the present review, we give an overview on the rationale behind the latest guidelines and summarize key papers that have led to significant advances in the field.

Evaluation of Non-invasive Fibrosis Markers in Predicting Esophageal Variceal Bleeding

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB) is an important cause of mortality and morbidity in liver cirrhosis. In this study, we aimed to predict the possibility of EVB in patients with cirrhosis using a non-invasive score.

METHODS

A total of 359 patients with cirrhosis were divided into two groups based on the presence or absence of EVB. ChildTurcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, a model for end-stage liver disease, aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4-index (FIB-4), aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio/platelet ratio index (AARPRI), and S-index were measured for all participants. Receiver operating characteristic curves were obtained for all parameters, and the optimal cut-off value was determined in predicting EVB.

RESULTS

In patients with EVB, the number of platelets (PLT) were low (p<0.001) and APRI, AARPRI, FIB-4, and S-index were significantly higher than those in patients without EBV. APRI, AARPRI, FIB-4, PLT, and S-index were statistically significant predictors of EVB (p<0.05).

CONCLUSION

FIB-4 and AARPRI, which are non-invasive markers of fibrosis, can be used to predict EVB. In addition, the 66.5 109/L cut-off value for PLT is important for EVB.

The value of platelet parameters and related scoring system in predicting esophageal varices and collateral veins in patients with liver cirrhosis

Objective

To explore the value of platelet parameters and related scoring system in predicting esophageal varices and collateral veins in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Method

A total of 94 patients with liver cirrhosis diagnosed in our hospital from March 2017 to July 2018 were divided into without esophageal varices group (NEV) and esophageal varices group (EV) into mild, moderate, and severe subgroups according to the results of general gastroscopy. The differences of biological indexes among different degrees of esophageal varices and collateral veins were analyzed, and the related factors of esophageal varices and collateral veins were analyzed.

Results

PLT count and PCT decreased gradually with the increase of esophageal varices in EV group. There were significant differences in PLT count and PCT, which were negatively correlated with the degree of collateral vein in esophageal collateral vein group. The maximum cross‐sectional diameter and mean diameter of esophageal collateral veins in EV group were wider than those in NEV group. Further study showed that the maximum cross‐sectional total diameter and mean diameter of esophageal collateral veins in severe esophageal varices group were wider than those in NEV group and mild esophageal varices group. Sequential Logistic regression analysis showed that PCT could effectively predict the existence of esophageal varices. Platelet parameters had no significant diagnostic value in predicting peri‐ECV and Para‐ECV. For platelet‐related FI, APRI, FIB‐4, King, Lok, GUCI, and FibroQ scoring systems, multivariate Logistic regression showed that FI, FIB‐4, Lok and FibroQ scoring systems could effectively predict the presence of EV and Para‐ECV (P<0.05), and its Lok Index is better than other rating systems, with AUROC values of 0.773 and 0.747, respectively. There is no significant predictive value for above scoring systems of peri‐ECV.

Conclusions

PCT and LOK index can effectively predict the existence of esophageal varices and para‐esophageal veins in patients with liver cirrhosis, and can be used as an effective filling method for common gastroscopy and endoscopic ultrasonography to detect EV and ECV in liver cirrhosis.

Non-invasive splenic parameters of portal hypertension: Assessment and utility

BACKGROUND

Portal hypertension is a major complication of cirrhosis that is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The present gold-standard method to risk stratify and observe cirrhosis patients with portal hypertension is hepatic venous pressure gradient measurement or esophagogastroduodenoscopy. However, these methods are invasive, carry a risk of complications and are associated with significant patient discomfort. Therefore, non-invasive splenic parameters are of clinical interest as potential useful markers in determining the presence of portal hypertension. However, diagnostic accuracy and reproducibility remains unvalidated.

AIM

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of spleen stiffness, area and diameter in predicting the presence of portal hypertension.

METHODS

Of 50 patients with varying liver disease pathologies were prospectively recruited from the St. Mary’s Hospital Liver Unit in London; 25 with evidence of portal hypertension and 25 with no evidence of portal hypertension. Liver stiffness, spleen stiffness, spleen diameter and spleen area were measured using the Philips Affiniti 70 elastography point quantification point shear wave elastography system. The aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet-ratio-index (APRI) score was also calculated. Performance measures, univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to evaluate demographic, clinical and elastography variables. Interclass correlation coefficient was used to determine the reproducibility of splenic area and diameter.

RESULTS

On univariate and individual performance, platelet count [area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.846, P value < 0.001], spleen area (AUROC 0.828, P value = 0.002) and APRI score (AUROC 0.827, P value < 0.001) were the most accurate variables in identifying the presence of portal hypertension. On multivariate logistic regression models constructed, the combination of spleen area greater than 57.90 cm² and platelet count less than 126 × 10⁹ had 63.2% sensitivity and 100% specificity, 100% positive predictive value and 100% negative predictive value. An alternative combination of spleen stiffness greater than 29.99 kPa and platelet count less than 126 × 10⁹ had 88% sensitivity, 75% specificity, 78.6% positive predictive value and 85.7% negative predictive value. An interclass correlation coefficient value of 0.98 (95%CI: 0.94-0.99, P value < 0.001) and 0.96 (95%CI: 0.91-0.99, P value < 0.001) were determined for inter-operator variability for spleen area and diameter respectively.

CONCLUSION

Spleen area, spleen stiffness and platelet count may be useful markers to assess the presence of portal hypertension in patients of various etiologies.

The indocyanine green retention test as a noninvasive marker for esophageal varices in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The indocyanine green 15-minute retention (ICG-r15) test was considered as a noninvasive marker of esophageal varices (EV) in cirrhotic patients. However, the performance of ICG-r15 in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has rarely been assessed. The aim of this study is to evaluate the value of ICG-r15 as a noninvasive marker of EV in patients with HCC.

METHODS

From October 2007 to December 2018, the study retrospectively enrolled 137 HCC patients with compensated hepatic function who received ICG-r15 tests and endoscopy screening for EV. The predictive value of the ICG-r15 test and other noninvasive markers was also evaluated for the diagnosis of EV, including the aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase ratio, platelet count/spleen diameter ratio, AST/platelet ratio index, Lok index, FIB-4, and Park index.

RESULTS

In the study cohort, 30 (21.9%) patients had EV. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for determining EV by ICG-r15 was 0.784 (95% CI: 0.686-0.881, -2 ln (L): 77.889, Akaike information criterion: 79.889), and it had the best predictive value compared with other noninvasive markers. The cutoff value of ICG-r15 to identify EV was 31.0%, and it had 40.0% sensitivity and 98.1% specificity. The cutoff value to exclude EV was 9.5% with 86.7% sensitivity and 50.5% specificity. In the multivariate analysis, ICG-r15 (odds ratio [OR]: 1.062, 1.014-1.114; p = 0.015) and the Park index (OR: 1.535, 1.091-2.159; p = 0.014) were independently related to the presence of EV.

CONCLUSION

ICG-r15 is a practical noninvasive marker with cutoff values of 9.5% for excluding EV and 31.0% for identifying EV in patients with HCC.

Non-invasive markers as predictors of oesophageal varices in cirrhotic patient in a teaching hospital in Ghana

Introduction

Oesophageal variceal (OV) bleeding is a potentially fatal consequence of portal hypertension in patients with liver cirrhosis. Upper GI endoscopy is recommended for screening for varices in cirrhotics for early detection and treatment, however, this is invasive. The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive values of the noninvasive tests in detecting the presence of OV.

Methods

A cross-sectional hospital-based study involving 149 patients with liver cirrhosis was carried out at the Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital from 1^st November 2015 to 25^th November 2016. Relevant clinical parameters assessed included Child-Pugh class, ascites and splenomegaly. Full blood count and liver function tests, abdominal ultrasound and gastroscopy were done for all the participants. Receiver operating characteristic curve was generated to determine the cut-off values for the best sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values of the variables (serum albumin, platelet count (PC), aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase (ALT), PC/Spleen diameter( SD)) with regard to the presence of OV.

Results

On gastroscopy, 135 (90.60%) had OV and 14 patients (9.40%) had no OV. One hundred and eleven of the varices (82.22%) were large varices and the rest (17.78%) small varices. The overall mean of serum albumin, PC and PC/SD were not significant predictors of the presence of OV. However, the overall mean of AST/ALT significantly predicted the presence of OV. A PC/SD cut off value of ≤833.3 had 72.62% diagnostic accuracy for diagnosing all OV.

Conclusion

PC/SD cut-off could be used to screen cirrhotics for OV and treatment initiated in geographical areas lacking endoscopy facilities

Funding

None declared

Screening for esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients - Non-invasive methods

Variceal bleeding is a dramatic complication of cirrhosis. Primary prophylaxis against variceal bleeding is indicated for patients with high-risk varices. In order for these patients to be identified, endoscopic screening for esophageal varices has been traditionally recommended at the time of the diagnosis of cirrhosis. Considering that many patients do not have esophageal varices in the early stages of cirrhosis and, therefore, are submitted to endoscopy unnecessarily, non-invasive methods for variceal screening have been studied. Among these non-invasive methods, the most extensively studied probably are platelet count/spleen diameter ratio, liver stiffness, spleen stiffness and an association between liver stiffness and platelet count, referred to as the Baveno VI criteria. The Baveno VI criteria has recently been recommended by different medical associations for variceal screening. This is a critical review on the non-invasive methods for variceal screening, in which the performances of the different methods are presented and the limitations of the existing evidence is discussed. Despite reasonable performances of some of these methods, especially platelet count/spleen diameter ratio and the association between liver stiffness and platelet count, we understand that the available evidence still has relevant limitations and that physicians should decide on screening cirrhotic patients for esophageal varices with endoscopy or non-invasive methods on a case-by-case basis.

Combination of albumin-bilirubin grade and platelets to predict a compensated patient with hepatocellular carcinoma who does not require endoscopic screening for esophageal varices

BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS

There is no consensus on screening for high-risk esophageal varices (HRV) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here, we aimed to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of HRV in patients with HCC and to assess the combination of albumin-bilirubin grade and platelet count (ALBI-PLT score) for predicting compensated patients who do not need unnecessary endoscopic screening for HRV.

METHODS

The ALBI-PLT score was calculated by adding the ALBI grade and points for platelet count (1 point if platelet count >150,000/mm³ and 2 points if ≤150,000/mm³). The predictive value of the ALBI-PLT score for HRV was analyzed in 887 compensated patients enrolled from October 2007 to April 2014 (study cohort). This was validated in 215 compensated patients from May 2014 to December 2015 (validation cohort).

RESULTS

In the study cohort, the rates of HRV were 2.9% and 21.1% in compensated HCC patients with an ALBI-PLT score of 2 and >2, respectively. The negative predictive values of the ALBI-PLT score for predicting HRV were 97.1% and 98.1% in the study and validation cohorts, respectively. For compensated patients who did not receive endoscopic screening at the time of HCC diagnosis, the 5-year cumulative variceal hemorrhage rate was lower in patients with an ALBI-PLT score of 2 than in those with an ALBI-PLT score >2 (1.7% vs 9.1%, P = .007).

CONCLUSION

In patients with HCC with compensated liver function, an ALBI-PLT score of 2 predicted a very low risk of HRV and variceal hemorrhage; therefore, endoscopic screening for esophageal varices is not recommended for these patients.

Noninvasive Methods of Predicting Large Esophageal Varices in Children With Intrahepatic Portal Hypertension

OBJECTIVE

Esophageal variceal bleeding is a severe complication of portal hypertension. The standard diagnostic screening test and therapeutic procedure for esophageal varices (EV) is endoscopy, which is invasive in pediatric patients. This study aimed to evaluate the role of noninvasive parameters as predictors of large varices in children with intrahepatic portal hypertension.

METHODS

Participants included in this cross-sectional study underwent a screening endoscopy. Variceal size, red marks, and portal gastropathy were assessed and rated. Patients were classified into two groups: Group 1 (G1) with small or no varices and Group 2 (G2) with large varices. The population consisted of 98 children with no history of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, with a mean age of 8.9 ± 4.7 years. The main outcome evaluated was the presence of large varices.

RESULTS

The first endoscopy session revealed the presence of large varices in 32 children. The best noninvasive predictors for large varices were platelets (Area under the ROC Curve [AUROC] 0.67; 95% CI 0.57-0.78), the Clinical Prediction Rule (CPR; AUROC 0.65; 95% CI 0.54-0.76), and risk score (AUROC 0.66; 95% CI 0.56-0.76). The logistic regression model showed that children with a CPR value under 114 were 8.59 times more likely to have large varices. Risk scores higher than -1.2 also increased the likelihood of large varices (OR 6.09; P = 0.014), as did a platelet count/spleen size z score lower than 25 (OR 3.99; P = 0.043). The combination of these three tests showed a high negative predictive value.

CONCLUSIONS

The CPR, the risk score, and the platelet count/spleen size z score could be helpful in identifying cirrhotic children who may be eligible for endoscopy.

Immature platelet fraction and thrombopoietin in patients with liver cirrhosis: A cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Thrombocytopenia occurs frequently in patients with cirrhosis. The immature platelet fraction (IPF%) is measured to differentiate the causes of thrombocytopenia. To date the relevance of thrombopoietin (TPO) in the context of cirrhosis is unknown. The aim of our study was to investigate the cause of thrombocytopenia in patients with liver cirrhosis by measuring IPF%, TPO and spleen size. In addition we examined the use of IPF% to evaluate the severity of cirrhosis and its complications.

METHODS

Overall, we included 88 in-patients with cirrhosis in our study. The collected data comprises current health status, blood parameters, severity of cirrhosis evaluated by Child-Pugh score and MELD score, spleen diameter, ascites and esophageal varices. The IPF% was measured using an automatic hematology analyzer. TPO was measured with ELISA.

RESULTS

IPF% (p = 0.003) and spleen diameter (p = 0.001) were significantly higher in patients with thrombocytopenia. There was no significant difference in TPO between patients with and without thrombocytopenia. The mean values of IPF% varied significantly (p = 0.044) in Child-Pugh stages. IPF% was significantly (p = 0.005) elevated in patients with esophageal varices. Moreover, IPF% higher than 3.85% displayed sensitivity of 76.6% and specificity of 52.4% with an area under receiver operating curve characteristics of 0.669 for the presence of esophageal varices.

CONCLUSION

On closer examination of the three compartments known to have an influence on platelet count splenomegaly seems to be the major cause of thrombocytopenia in patients with cirrhosis according to current knowledge. Higher IPF% in patients with thrombocytopenia indicates peripheral consumption of platelets. The relation between spleen diameter and platelet count indicates the spleen to be the major place of platelets' consumption. TPO did not differ between patients with and without thrombocytopenia. Furthermore, we cannot exclude an influence of impaired thrombopoietin synthesis on platelet counts. The association between IPF% and platelet count suggests that there is physiological regulation of platelets in patients with cirrhosis. In our study IPF% is associated with esophageal varices and the stage of cirrhosis. Further studies are needed to confirm these results.

Validating, deconstructing and refining Baveno criteria for ruling out high-risk varices in patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend variceal screening in patients with cirrhosis to identify varices at high risk of bleeding requiring primary prophylaxis. Non-invasive criteria to rule out high-risk varices will avoid unnecessary endoscopies. Recent Baveno VI criteria define patients with compensated cirrhosis in whom endoscopy can be avoided as those with a liver stiffness by transient elastography <20 kPa and a platelet count >150 000/mm^3. AIMS: To validate Baveno criteria in two cohorts with a different prevalence of high-risk varices and to determine whether alternate parameters not including liver stiffness would be equal/more accurate in ruling out high-risk varices.

METHODS

Retrospective study evaluating patients with liver stiffness >10 kPa who had liver stiffness and endoscopy within 1 year of each other.

RESULTS

This study included 161 patients from the US cohort (14 [9%] with high-risk varices) and 101 patients from an Italian cohort (17 [17%] with high-risk varices). Of patients meeting Baveno criteria (41 in the US, 16 in Italy), none had high-risk varices and therefore 26% (US) and 16% (Italy) endoscopies could have been avoided. Sensitivity and negative predictive value were 100%. A stepwise strategy using platelet count >150 000 and MELD=6, increased the number of endoscopies avoided to 54% (US) while maintaining a sensitivity and negative predictive value of 100%. Excellent sensitivity and negative predictive value were validated in the Italian cohort and in another cohort of patients with a clinical diagnosis of cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study validates Baveno VI criteria, particularly in sites with a low prevalence of high-risk varices and describes a new accurate strategy that does not include liver stiffness.

Predictors of esophageal varices and first variceal bleeding in liver cirrhosis patients

AIM

To assess "predictors" of esophageal varices (EV) and variceal bleeding using non-invasive markers in Albanian patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

One hundred thirty-nine newly diagnosed cirrhotic patients without variceal bleeding were included in this analysis. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (AST/ALT), AST to platelet ratio index (APRI), platelet count to spleen diameter (PC/SD), fibrosis-4-index (FIB-4), fibrosis index (FI) and King's Score were measured for all participants. All patients underwent endoscopic assessment within two days of hospitalization. The major end point was the first esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB) event. The diagnostic performance of "predictors" for the presence of EV and EVB were assessed by sensitivity and specificity values obtained from the receiver operating characteristics procedure.

RESULTS

FIB-4 was the only strong and significant "predictor" of esophageal varices (multivariable-adjusted OR = 1.57 for one unit increment; 95%CI: 1.15-2.14). Furthermore, a cut-off value of 3.23 for FIB-4 was a significant predictor of esophageal varices, with a sensitivity of 72%, a specificity of 58% and a proportion of area under the curve (AUC) of 66% (P = 0.01). During the follow-up (median: 31.5 mo; interquartile range: 11-59 mo), 34 patients (24%) experienced a first EVB. FIB-4 was a poor predictor of EVB (the AUC was only 51%) for a cut-off value of 5.02. Furthermore, the AUC of AST/ALT, APRI, PC/SD, FI, MELD and King's Score ranged from 45% to 55%. None of the non-invasive markers turned out to be a useful predictor of EVB.

CONCLUSION

Despite the low diagnostic accuracy, FIB-4 appears the most efficient non-invasive liver fibrosis marker which can be used as an initial screening tool for cirrhotic patients.

Platelet count, spleen length, and platelet count-to-spleen length ratio for the diagnosis of oesophageal varices in people with chronic liver disease or portal vein thrombosis

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend screening of people with oesophageal varices via oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy at the time of diagnosis of hepatic cirrhosis. This requires that people repeatedly undergo unpleasant invasive procedures with their attendant risks, although half of these people have no identifiable oesophageal varices 10 years after the initial diagnosis of cirrhosis. Platelet count, spleen length, and platelet count-to-spleen length ratio are non-invasive tests proposed as triage tests for the diagnosis of oesophageal varices.

OBJECTIVES

Primary objectives To determine the diagnostic accuracy of platelet count, spleen length, and platelet count-to-spleen length ratio for the diagnosis of oesophageal varices of any size in paediatric or adult patients with chronic liver disease or portal vein thrombosis, irrespective of aetiology. To investigate the accuracy of these non-invasive tests as triage or replacement of oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy. Secondary objectives To compare the diagnostic accuracy of these same tests for the diagnosis of high-risk oesophageal varices in paediatric or adult patients with chronic liver disease or portal vein thrombosis, irrespective of aetiology.We aimed to perform pair-wise comparisons between the three index tests, while considering predefined cut-off values.We investigated sources of heterogeneity.

SEARCH METHODS

The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies Register, the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), and Science Citation Index - Expanded (Web of Science) (14 June 2016). We applied no language or document-type restrictions.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of platelet count, spleen length, and platelet count-to-spleen length ratio for the diagnosis of oesophageal varices via oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy as the reference standard in children or adults of any age with chronic liver disease or portal vein thrombosis, who did not have variceal bleeding.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Standard Cochrane methods as outlined in the Cochrane Handbook for Diagnostic Test of Accuracy Reviews.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 71 studies, 67 of which enrolled only adults and four only children. All included studies were cross-sectional and were undertaken at a tertiary care centre. Eight studies reported study results in abstracts or letters. We considered all but one of the included studies to be at high risk of bias. We had major concerns about defining the cut-off value for the three index tests; most included studies derived the best cut-off values a posteriori, thus overestimating accuracy; 16 studies were designed to validate the 909 (n/mm3)/mm cut-off value for platelet count-to-spleen length ratio. Enrolment of participants was not consecutive in six studies and was unclear in 31 studies. Thirty-four studies assessed enrolment consecutively. Eleven studies excluded some included participants from the analyses, and in only one study, the time interval between index tests and the reference standard was longer than three months. Diagnosis of varices of any size. Platelet count showed sensitivity of 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63 to 0.77) and specificity of 0.80 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.88) (cut-off value of around 150,000/mm3 from 140,000 to 150,000/mm3; 10 studies, 2054 participants). When examining potential sources of heterogeneity, we found that of all predefined factors, only aetiology had a role: studies including participants with chronic hepatitis C reported different results when compared with studies including participants with mixed aetiologies (P = 0.036). Spleen length showed sensitivity of 0.85 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.91) and specificity of 0.54 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.62) (cut-off values of around 110 mm, from 110 to 112.5 mm; 13 studies, 1489 participants). Summary estimates for detection of varices of any size showed sensitivity of 0.93 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.97) and specificity of 0.84 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.91) in 17 studies, and 2637 participants had a cut-off value for platelet count-to-spleen length ratio of 909 (n/mm3)/mm. We found no effect of predefined sources of heterogeneity. An overall indirect comparison of the HSROCs of the three index tests showed that platelet count-to-spleen length ratio was the most accurate index test when compared with platelet count (P < 0.001) and spleen length (P < 0.001). Diagnosis of varices at high risk of bleeding. Platelet count showed sensitivity of 0.80 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.85) and specificity of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.77) (cut-off value of around 150,000/mm3 from 140,000 to 160,000/mm3; seven studies, 1671 participants). For spleen length, we obtained only a summary ROC curve as we found no common cut-off between studies (six studies, 883 participants). Platelet count-to-spleen length ratio showed sensitivity of 0.85 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.93) and specificity of 0.66 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.77) (cut-off value of around 909 (n/mm3)/mm; from 897 to 921 (n/mm3)/mm; seven studies, 642 participants). An overall indirect comparison of the HSROCs of the three index tests showed that platelet count-to-spleen length ratio was the most accurate index test when compared with platelet count (P = 0.003) and spleen length (P < 0.001). DIagnosis of varices of any size in children. We found four studies including 277 children with different liver diseases and or portal vein thrombosis. Platelet count showed sensitivity of 0.71 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.80) and specificity of 0.83 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.91) (cut-off value of around 115,000/mm3; four studies, 277 participants). Platelet count-to-spleen length z-score ratio showed sensitivity of 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.81) and specificity of 0.64 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.84) (cut-off value of 25; two studies, 197 participants).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Platelet count-to-spleen length ratio could be used to stratify the risk of oesophageal varices. This test can be used as a triage test before endoscopy, thus ruling out adults without varices. In the case of a ratio > 909 (n/mm3)/mm, the presence of oesophageal varices of any size can be excluded and only 7% of adults with varices of any size would be missed, allowing investigators to spare the number of oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy examinations. This test is not accurate enough for identification of oesophageal varices at high risk of bleeding that require primary prophylaxis. Future studies should assess the diagnostic accuracy of this test in specific subgroups of patients, as well as its ability to predict variceal bleeding. New non-invasive tests should be examined.

Non-invasive Diagnosis of Oesophageal Varices Using Systemic Haemodynamic Measurements by Finometry: Comparison with Other Non-invasive Predictive Scores

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Cirrhosis and portal hypertension are characterised by a hyperdynamic circulation, which is independently associated with variceal size. Non-invasive techniques for measurement of systemic haemodynamics are now available. The aim of the study was to prospectively assess the accuracy of systemic haemodynamics measured non-invasively for the detection of oesophageal varices in cirrhotic patients as compared to other currently available non-invasive methods.

METHODS

In a study of 29 cirrhotic patients, systemic haemodynamics were studied non-invasively using the Finometer^® (mean arterial pressure (MAP), cardiac output (CO)/index, heart rate (HR), peripheral vascular resistance) and portal pressure was assessed by hepatic venous pressure gradient. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were assessed for predicting presence of varices and large oesophageal varices. Results were compared to child's classification, platelet/spleen ratio and ALT/AST ratios as predictors of the presence of large varices.

RESULTS

Using finometry large oesophageal varices were correctly predicted in 83% of patients compared to other non-invasive techniques (range 66-76%).

CONCLUSIONS

Non-invasive assessment of systemic haemodynamics using finometry could aid the identification of patients who do not immediately require variceal surveillance reducing the numbers of endoscopies and ensuring services are provided to those most likely to benefit.

Correlation of platelets count with endoscopic findings in a cohort of Egyptian patients with liver cirrhosis

Screening endoscopy is recommended for early detection of esophageal varices (EVs) in cirrhotic patients with portal hypertension. However, this approach is limited by its invasiveness and cost. The aim of the study was to determine if platelet count can predict the presence of EVs, especially large (grade III, IV) EVs in need of prophylactic therapy, in a cohort of Egyptian patients with liver cirrhosis. In all, 110 patients with cirrhosis were prospectively analyzed. The presence of medium or large EVs was correlated with patients' platelet count and FIB-4. Esophageal varices were present in 87 (79.09%) patients. Among those with thrombocytopenia (platelet level below 150,000), 25.97% (20 patients) and 27.27% (21 patients) had EV grade II and EV grade III or IV, respectively. Whereas in patients in whom the platelet count was above 150,000, only 21.21% (7 patients) and 9.09% (3 patients) of patients had grade II EV and EV grade III or IV, respectively. A platelet count cut-off value of 149,000 was found to have specificity of 82% and sensitivity 39% for detection of presence of varices. A FIB-4 cut-off value of 3.175 was found to have an 83.3% sensitivity and 39.5% specificity in detecting large (grade III, IV) EVs. Platelet count is a noninvasive parameter with high accuracy for prediction of EVs. Cirrhotic patients with normal platelet counts (above 150,000), especially in financially deprived developing countries, can avoid screening endoscopy as they are at a low risk for variceal bleeding, and presence of large EVs in these patients is much less common than in those with thrombocytopenia. A 3.175 cut-off value of FIB-4 could be useful as a noninvasive predictor of large varices requiring prophylactic banding in cirrhotic patients.

Facility- and Patient-Level Factors Associated with Esophageal Variceal Screening in the USA

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The American Association for the Study of Liver Disease (AASLD) recommends screening for esophageal varices (EV) by esophagoduodenoscopy (EGD) in patients with cirrhosis to guide decisions regarding primary prophylaxis for EV hemorrhage. We aimed to identify patient and facility factors associated with EV screening in veterans with hepatitis C (HCV)-associated cirrhosis.

METHODS

This was a population-based cohort study. Veterans with HCV and newly diagnosed cirrhosis between 1/1/2004 and 12/31/2005 and followed until 12/31/2011 were included. The primary outcome was receipt of EGD within 1 year of cirrhosis diagnosis. Patient- and facility-level factors associated with EV screening were determined.

RESULTS

A total of 4230 patients with HCV cirrhosis were identified. During median follow-up of 6.1 years (IQR: 4.0-8.0), 21.5 % developed a decompensating event, and 38.3 % died. Fifty-four percent received an EGD, and 33.8 % had an EGD within guidelines. Median time from cirrhosis diagnosis to EGD was 72 days (IQR: 12-176). Factors independently associated with receipt of EV screening were a decompensation event (OR 1.16, CI 1.01-1.32) and gastroenterology/hepatology clinic access (OR 2.1, CI 1.73-2.46), whereas cardiovascular (OR 0.81, CI 0.69-0.95), mental health (OR 0.79, CI 0.68-0.91), and respiratory (OR 0.85, CI 0.72-0.99) comorbidities were associated with reduced likelihood of EV screening.

CONCLUSION

EV screening per AASLD guidelines occurs in only one-third of patients. This missed opportunity was strongly associated with access to gastroenterology/hepatology specialty care. Additionally, providers may be relying on clinical cues (i.e., decompensation) to prompt referral for endoscopy suggesting education to improve compliance with guidelines is needed.

Diagnostic Accuracy of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, FI, King, Lok, Forns, and FibroIndex Scores in Predicting the Presence of Esophageal Varices in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio (APRI), aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), FIB-4, FI, King, Lok, Forns, and FibroIndex scores may be simple and convenient noninvasive diagnostic tests, because they are based on the regular laboratory tests and demographic data. This study aimed to systematically evaluate their diagnostic accuracy for the prediction of varices in liver cirrhosis.All relevant papers were searched via PubMed, EMBASE, CNKI, and Wanfang databases. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (AUSROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio (PLR and NLR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were calculated.Overall, 12, 4, 5, 0, 0, 4, 3, and 1 paper was identified to explore the diagnostic accuracy of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, FI, King, Lok, Forns, and FibroIndex scores, respectively. The AUSROCs of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, Lok, and Forns scores for the prediction of varices were 0.6774, 0.7275, 0.7755, 0.7885, and 0.7517, respectively; and those for the prediction of large varices were 0.7278, 0.7448, 0.7095, 0.7264, and 0.6530, respectively. The diagnostic threshold effects of FIB-4 and Forns scores for the prediction of varices were statistically significant. The sensitivities/specificities/PLRs/NLRs/DORs of APRI, AAR, and Lok scores for the prediction of varices were 0.60/0.67/1.77/0.58/3.13, 0.64/0.63/1.97/0.54/4.18, and 0.74/0.68/2.34/0.40/5.76, respectively. The sensitivities/specificities/PLRs/NLRs/DORs of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, Lok, and Forns scores for the prediction of large varices were 0.65/0.66/2.15/0.47/4.97, 0.68/0.58/2.07/0.54/3.93, 0.62/0.64/2.02/0.56/3.57, 0.78/0.63/2.09/0.37/5.55, and 0.65/0.61/1.62/0.59/2.75, respectively.APRI, AAR, FIB-4, Lok, and Forns scores had low to moderate diagnostic accuracy in predicting the presence of varices in liver cirrhosis.

A Clinical Decision Rule Based on the AST-to-Platelet Ratio Index Improves Adherence to Published Guidelines on the Management of Acute Variceal Bleeding

BACKGROUND

Optimal management of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) depends on identifying a variceal versus nonvariceal etiology. An objective measure predicting etiology could guide early management pending endoscopy. The AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) score has been studied as a marker of cirrhosis and portal hypertension, but has not been evaluated in the setting of acute UGIB.

METHODS

In this single-center retrospective cohort study, we reviewed endoscopy reports and other data for patients with acute UGIB, and classified episodes as variceal bleeds or other. We assessed the diagnostic utility of the APRI score relative to other objective measures by Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) curve analysis. We constructed a clinical decision rule based on the APRI score, and assessed how it would have changed management.

RESULTS

The APRI score performed well in predicting a variceal etiology of acute UGIB, with AUROC 0.89. We developed a clinical decision rule using an APRI score of 0.4 to guide early management of acute UGIB patients. Retroactively applying this to our cohort, adherence to published guidelines for administration of octreotide and antibiotics would have increased from 56% to 91%.

CONCLUSIONS

The APRI score is an objective metric that helps predict a variceal etiology of acute UGIB. Using our proposed decision rule could improve adherence to guidelines on management of acute variceal bleeding. Although we were unable to demonstrate a survival benefit, improved adherence to evidence-based guidelines serves as a metric related to this most important outcome measure. Prospective study to validate these findings is indicated.

Usefulness of MR elastography for predicting esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients

PURPOSE

To evaluate the usefulness of magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) as a noninvasive tool for predicting esophageal varices and identifying high-risk varices.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In all, 126 patients with liver cirrhosis, and who underwent both MRI including MRE of the liver as well as upper gastrointestinal endoscopy for variceal screening within 1 month before or after the MRI, were included in this study. The relationship between the liver stiffness values measured by MRE and the degree of esophageal varices was assessed using Spearman's correlation analysis. In addition, the diagnostic performance of MRE for predicting the presence of varices or high-risk varices (grade≥II) was evaluated using the receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

The mean stiffness values of liver parenchyma measured on MRE were well correlated with the grade of esophageal varices (r=0.63). In addition, the MRE-based liver stiffness values were significantly lower in the lower-risk group than in the higher-risk group (P<0.0001). The area under the ROC curve values of MRE for predicting the presence of varices or high-risk varices (grade≥II) were 0.859 and 0.810, respectively. Using a liver stiffness cutoff value of 5.803 kPa, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for predicting high-grade (≥II) esophageal varices were 96%, 60%, 36%, and 98%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The MRE-based liver stiffness value may be useful for noninvasively predicting esophageal varices and identifying high-risk varices in cirrhotic patients.

Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) for the non-invasive prediction of esophageal varices

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Variceal bleeding is a dramatic and common complication of cirrhosis, and, therefore, endoscopy is recommended for the screening of EV (esophageal varices) in every cirrhotic. This study evaluates the capacity of APRI (aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index) in non-invasively predicting EV.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study evaluated cirrhotics for their APRI value and the presence of EV, with a cutoff point of 1, 3; platelet count, spleen diameter, PC/SD (platelet count/ spleen diameter ratio), aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, Child-Pugh score and MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) score were also studied.

RESULTS

The study included 164 cirrhotics, 59.7% male, with a mean age of 56.7 years. APRI demonstrated a sensitivity of 64.7% (95% confidence interval-95%CI = 0.56-0.73), specificity of 72.7% (95%CI = 0.59-0.86), positive predictive value of 86.5% (95%CI = 0.79-0.94), negative predictive value of 43.2% (95%CI = 0.32-0.55). In the univariate analysis, platelet count, spleen diameter, Child and MELD scores, PC/SD and APRI were related to EV (p < 0.05). In the logistic regression, only platelet count and Child score were associated to EV (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

APRI is not an independent factor for the prediction of EV. Its sensitivity, specificity and predictive values are insufficient for the index to be used for the screening of EV in cirrhotics.

Noninvasive methods for prediction of esophageal varices in pediatric patients with portal hypertension

AIM: To evaluate clinical and laboratory parameters for prediction of bleeding from esophageal varices (EV) in children with portal hypertension.

METHODS: Retrospective study of 103 children (mean age: 10.1 ± 7.7 years), 95.1% with intrahepatic portal hypertension. All patients had no history of bleeding and underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy for EV screening. We recorded variceal size (F1, F2 and F3), red-color signs and portal gastropathy, according to the Japanese Research Society for Portal Hypertension classification. Patients were classified into two groups: with and without EV. Seven noninvasive markers were evaluated as potential predictors of EV: (1) platelet count; (2) spleen size z score, expressed as a standard deviation score relative to normal values for age; (3) platelet count to spleen size z score ratio; (4) platelets count to spleen size (cm) ratio; (5) the clinical prediction rule (CPR); (6) the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI); and (7) the risk score.

RESULTS: Seventy-one children had EV on first endoscopy. On univariate analysis, spleen size, platelets, CPR, risk score, APRI, and platelet count to spleen size z score ratio showed significant associations. The best noninvasive predictors of EV were platelet count [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.82; 95%CI: 0.73-0.91], platelet: spleen size z score (AUROC 0.78; 95%CI: 0.67-0.88), CPR (AUROC 0.77; 95%CI: 0.64-0.89), and risk score (AUROC 0.77; 95%CI: 0.66-0.88). A logistic regression model was applied with EV as the dependent variable and corrected by albumin, bilirubin and spleen size z score. Children with a CPR < 114 were 20.7-fold more likely to have EV compared to children with CPR > 114. A risk score > -1.2 increased the likelihood of EV (odds ratio 7.47; 95%CI: 2.06-26.99).

CONCLUSION: Children with portal hypertension with a CPR below 114 and a risk score greater than -1.2 are more likely to have present EV. Therefore, these two tests can be helpful in selecting children for endoscopy.