Risk factors for in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with oesophageal variceal bleeding

A targeted endoscopic band ligation technique for management of acute esophageal variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Endoscopic band ligation (EBL) standard therapy is traditionally performed with banding from the distal esophagus upwards. However, esophageal varices (EV) with stigma of recent bleeding are not consistently banded at the first attempt. We aimed to compare conventional banding in acute variceal bleeding (AVB) vs targeted banding of EV in patients with stigma of recent bleeding (white nipple sign).

METHODS

This case-control study included patients treated in our hospital from December 2016 to September 2019 with endoscopic signs of recent variceal bleeding. The targeted technique involves deploying the first band at the recent bleeding stigmata and then completing the procedure with standard variceal banding technique. The conventional group included patients treated with standard EBL.

RESULTS

We analyzed 92 patients, 54 (58.7%) in conventional technique and 38 (41.3%) in the targeted group. Active bleeding during endoscopy occurred in 11 (20.0%) of conventional and two (6.5%) of the targeted group (p=0.021). Although procedure time was longer in the conventional group (24.3min SD 11.58) compared to the targeted group (21.52min SD 8.73) this difference was not significant. One detached band episode was documented in targeted group and none in the conventional group (p=0.418). TIPS were not used during this study due to health system policy. There were no significant differences in mortality, rebleeding or transfusion requirements between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The targeted technique for EV with stigma of recent bleeding had a low band detachment incidence and fewer bleeding events during endoscopy, however, the limitations of the study should be considered.

Hemorrhagic Shock from Acute Variceal Bleeding Caused by Sarcoidosis: A Case Report

Sarcoidosis is a disease of unknown etiology, characterized by noncaseating granulomas. Generally, the condition primarily manifests in the lungs. Extrapulmonary involvement is common, but localization in the gastrointestinal system is rare. Here, we present the case of a 37-year-old male who became increasingly hemodynamically unstable during the diagnostic workup for sarcoidosis due to acute variceal bleeding. The underlying mechanism was later attributed to portal hypertension caused by hepatic involvement of the disease. This case demonstrates the importance of considering variceal hemorrhage as a rare but life-threatening complication of gastrointestinal localization of sarcoidosis.

Statins, metformin, and RAS inhibitors did not reduce variceal bleeding risk and mortality in a large, real-life cohort of patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Previous experimental and clinical studies suggested a beneficial effect of statins, metformin, angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers (RASi) on portal hypertension. Still, their effects on hard cirrhosis-related clinical endpoints, such as variceal bleeding and bleeding-related mortality, remain to be investigated.

METHODS

Thus, we recorded the use of statins, metformin and RASi in a large cohort of cirrhotic patients undergoing endoscopic band ligation (EBL) for primary (PP, n = 440) and secondary bleeding prophylaxis (SP, n = 480) between 01/2000 and 05/2020. Variceal (re-) bleeding and survival rates were compared between patients with vs. without these co-medications.

RESULTS

A total of 920 cirrhotic patients with varices were included. At first EBL, median MELD was 13 and 515 (56%) patients showed ascites. Statins, metformin and RASi were used by 49 (5.3%), 74 (8%), and 91 (9.9%) patients, respectively. MELD and platelet counts were similar in patients with and without the co-medications of interest. Rates of first variceal bleeding and variceal rebleeding at 2 years were 5.2% and 11.7%, respectively. Neither of the co-medications were associated with decreased first bleeding rates (log-rank tests in PP: statins p = 0.813, metformin p = 0.862, RASi p = 0.919) nor rebleeding rates (log-rank tests in SP: statin p = 0.113, metformin p = 0.348, RASi p = 0.273). Similar mortality rates were documented in patients with and without co-medications for PP (log-rank tests: statins p = 0.630, metformin p = 0.591, RASi p = 0.064) and for SP (statins p = 0.720, metformin p = 0.584, RASi p = 0.118).

CONCLUSION

In clinical practice, variceal bleeding and mortality rates of cirrhotic patients were not reduced by co-medication with statins, metformin or RASi. Nevertheless, we recommend the use of these co-medications by indication, as they may still exert beneficial effects on non-bleeding complications in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Liver Severity Score-Based Modeling to Predict Six-Week Mortality Risk Among Hospitalized Cirrhosis Patients With Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Background

Patients with cirrhosis who have gastrointestinal bleeding have high short-term mortality, but the best modality for risk calculation remains in debate. Liver severity indices, such as Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and Model-for-End-Stage-Liver Disease (MELD) score, are well-studied in portal hypertensive bleeding, but there is a paucity of data confirming their accuracy in non-portal hypertensive bleeding and overall acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), unrelated to portal hypertension.

Aims

This study aims to better understand the accuracy of current mortality risk calculators in predicting mortality for patients with any type of UGIB, which could allow for earlier risk stratification and targeted intervention prior to endoscopy to identify the bleeding source.

Methods

In a large US single-center cohort, we investigated and recalibrated the model performance of CTP and MELD scores to predict six-week mortality risk for both sources of UGIB (portal hypertensive and non-portal hypertensive).

Results

Both CTP- and MELD-based models have excellent discrimination in predicting six-week mortality for all types of bleeding sources. However, only a CTP-based model demonstrates calibration for all bleeding, regardless of bleeding etiology. Median predicted 6-week mortality by CTP class A, B, and C estimates a risk of 1%, 7%, and 35% respectively.

Conclusions

Our study corroborates findings in the literature that CTP- and MELD-based models have similar discriminative abilities for predicting 6-week mortality in hospitalized cirrhosis patients presenting with either portal hypertensive or non-portal hypertensive UGIB. CTP class is an effective clinical decision tool that can be used, even prior to endoscopy, to accurately risk stratify a patient with known cirrhosis presenting with any UGIB into low, moderate, and severe risk groupings.

Endoscopic band ligation is safe despite low platelet count and high INR

BACKGROUND

Prophylactic endoscopic band ligation (EBL) is used to prevent variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. The association of thrombocytopenia, high INR (international normalized ratio) and liver dysfunction with the risk of procedure-related bleeding (PRB) remains debated and recommendations are controversial.

METHODS

We analyzed real-life data of cirrhotic patients undergoing elective EBL at two large Viennese centers between Q1/2000-Q1/2018. PRB was defined as bleeding occurring within 30 days after EBL.

RESULTS

We included 617 patients undergoing a total of 1178 prophylactic EBL procedures (median 2 per patient). Sixteen (2.6%) of 617 patients experienced PRB after a median of 12.5 (IQR 17.3) days with no difference in characteristics and laboratory values between the two groups. The proportion of patients with platelets (PLT) < 50 G/L or INR ≥ 1.5 was similar in patients with vs. without PRB. A higher MELD showed a non-significant association with EBL-related bleeding risk (odds ratio, OR 1.07; 95% confidence interval 95% CI 1.00-1.16, p = 0.058). While serum bilirubin was a significant predictor for PRB (OR: 1.10; 95% CI 1.03-1.18), the presence of large varices (OR 0.85 vs. small varices; 95% CI 0.20-3.84), INR (OR 0.50; 95% CI 0.10-3.14), PLT (OR 1.00; 95% CI 1.00-1.01) and the use of non-selective betablockers (OR 1.20; CI 95% 0.38-3.76) were not associated with PRB.

CONCLUSION

EBL is safe and procedure-related bleedings are rare (2.6%) including in patients with thrombocytopenia < 50 G/L or high INR ≥ 1.5. Only high MELD, and especially high bilirubin seem to be linked to an increased risk of EBL-related bleeding.

Clinical algorithms for the prevention of variceal bleeding and rebleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis

Portal hypertension (PH), a common complication of liver cirrhosis, results in development of esophageal varices. When esophageal varices rupture, they cause significant upper gastrointestinal bleeding with mortality rates up to 20% despite state-of-the-art treatment. Thus, prophylactic measures are of utmost importance to improve outcomes of patients with PH. Several high-quality studies have demonstrated that non-selective beta blockers (NSBBs) or endoscopic band ligation (EBL) are effective for primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding. In secondary prophylaxis, a combination of NSBB + EBL should be routinely used. Once esophageal varices develop and variceal bleeding occurs, standardized treatment algorithms should be followed to minimize bleeding-associated mortality. Special attention should be paid to avoidance of overtransfusion, early initiation of vasoconstrictive therapy, prophylactic antibiotics and early endoscopic therapy. Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt should be used in all Child C10-C13 patients experiencing variceal bleeding, and potentially in Child B patients with active bleeding at endoscopy. The use of carvedilol, safety of NSBBs in advanced cirrhosis (i.e. with refractory ascites) and assessment of hepatic venous pressure gradient response to NSBB is discussed. In the present review, we give an overview on the rationale behind the latest guidelines and summarize key papers that have led to significant advances in the field.

Bedside risk-scoring model for predicting 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing endoscopic band ligation for acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a fatal adverse event of cirrhosis, and endoscopic band ligation (EBL) is the standard treatment for AVB. We developed a novel bedside risk-scoring model to predict the 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing EBL for AVB.

METHODS

Cox regression analysis was used to assess the relationship of clinical, biological, and endoscopic variables with the 6-week mortality risk after EBL in a derivation cohort (n = 1373). The primary outcome was the predictive accuracy of the new model for the 6-week mortality in the validation cohort. Moreover, we tested the adequacy of the mortality risk-based stratification and the discriminative performance of our new model in comparison with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease scores in the validation cohort (n = 200).

RESULTS

On multivariate Cox regression analysis, five objective variables (use of beta-blockers, hepatocellular carcinoma, CTP class C, hypovolemic shock at initial presentation, and history of hepatic encephalopathy) were scored to generate a 12-point risk-prediction model. The model stratified the 6-week mortality risk in patients as low (3.5%), intermediate (21.1%), and high (53.4%) (P < 0.001). Time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 6-week mortality showed that this model was a better prognostic indicator than the CTP class alone in the derivation (P < 0.001) and validation (P < 0.001) cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

A simplified scoring model with high potential for generalization refines the prediction of 6-week mortality in high-risk cirrhotic patients, thereby aiding the targeting and individualization of treatment strategies for decreasing the mortality rate.

Method of diagnosis and treatment of profusional bleeding from stenosing postbulbar ulcers of the duodenum

The aim. To evaluate the effectiveness of X-ray interventions in arosive bleeding in patients with complicated duodenal ulcer. Materials and methods. X-ray endovascular interventions were used in 8 patients who developed arosive bleeding as a complication of duodenal ulcer. All patients with signs of gastrointestinal bleeding were examined according to clinical protocols. Hemodynamically stable patients underwent X-ray endovascular interventions. Results and discussion. In the near future, bleeding stopped in all 8 (100 %, OR–0.04 [0.005–0.29], p=0.03) patients. On day 2, two patients who underwent embolization of their own hepatic artery had a recurrence of bleeding (0.56 [0.065–4.76], p=0.29). Repeated angiography and embolization attempts were ineffective, and both patients died. In patients who underwent gastroduodenal and pancreatouodenal artery embolization, bleeding did not resume. Thus, we obtained good results as 6 out of 8 patients recovered (75 %), despite the severity of their condition and a disappointing prognosis (OR–9.0 [1.0–46.7], p <0.05). Conclusions. Adherence to the tactics mentioned above in the treatment of bleeding in duodenal ulcer was highly effective, especially in superselective embolization with the detection of bleeding gel. If the presence of arosive bleeding is confirmed, emergency surgical treatment with suturing of the damaged vessel is shown in hemodynamically unstable patients, and endovascular intervention is possible in hemodynamically stable patients. Further studies are needed to determine the criteria for a high risk of arosive bleeding developing in patients with complicated duodenal ulcer as well as to prevent its occurrence through the use of X-ray endovascular interventions.

Perceptions on the management of varices and on the use of albumin in patients with cirrhosis among GI specialists in Austria

BACKGROUND

Portal hypertension (PH) causes severe complications in patients with liver cirrhosis, such as variceal bleeding and ascites; however, data on the knowledge and perceptions on guideline recommendations for the management of varices and the use of albumin is scarce.

METHODS

We designed two structured surveys on (i) the management of varices and (ii) the use of albumin for Austrian physicians of specialized Gastro-Intestinal (GI) centers. The interviewed physicians were confronted spontaneously and provided ad hoc responses to the questionnaire.

RESULTS

In total, 158 surveys were completed. Interestingly, many specialists (30%) would recommend a follow-up gastroscopy after 1 year in patients with compensated cirrhosis without varices (i.e., overtreatment). For small varices, 81.5% would use non-selective beta blockers (NSBB) for primary prophylaxis (PP). For PP in patients with large varices, endoscopic band ligation (EBL) plus NSBB was preferred by 51.4% (i.e., overtreatment). Knowledge on the indication criteria for early TIPS (transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt) was reported by 54.3%, but only 20% could report these criteria correctly. The majority (87.1%) correctly indicated a preference to use NSBB and EBL for secondary prophylaxis (SP). The majority of participating gastroenterologists reported no restrictions on the use of albumin (89.8%) in their hospitals. Of the interviewed specialists, 63.6% would use albumin in patients with SBP; however, only 11.4% would use the doses recommended by guidelines. The majority of specialists indicated using albumin at the recommended doses for hepatorenal syndrome (HRS-AKI, 86.4%) and for large volume paracentesis (LVP, 73.3%). The individual responses regarding albumin use for infections/sepsis, hyponatremia, renal impairment, and encephalopathy were heterogeneous.

CONCLUSION

The reported management of PH and varices is mostly adherent to guidelines, but endoscopic surveillance in patients without varices is too intense and EBL is overused in the setting of PP. Knowledge on the correct use of early TIPS must be improved among Austrian specialists. Albumin use is widely unrestricted in Austria; however, albumin is often underdosed in established indications.

Outcomes of hemi- versus whole liver transplantation in patients from mainland china with high model for end-stage liver disease scores: a matched analysis

Background

Adult hemiliver transplantation (AHLT) is an important approach given the current shortage of donor livers. However, the suitability of AHLT versus adult whole liver transplantation (AWLT) for recipients with high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores remains controversial.

Methods

We divided patients undergoing AHLT and AWLT into subgroups according to their MELD scores (≥ 30: AHLT, n = 35; AWLT, n = 88; and < 30: AHLT, n = 323; AWLT, n = 323). Patients were matched by demographic data and perioperative conditions according to propensity scores. A cut-off value of 30 for MELD scores was determined by comparing the overall survival data of 735 cases of nontumor liver transplantation.

Results

Among patients with an MELD score ≥ 30 and < 30, AHLT was found to be associated with increased warm ischemia time, operative time, hospitalization time, and intraoperative blood loss compared with AWLT (P < 0.05). In the MELD ≥ 30 group, although the 5-year survival rate was significantly higher for AWLT than for AHLT (P = 0.037), there was no significant difference between AWLT and AHLT in the MELD < 30 group (P = 0.832); however, we did not observe a significant increase in specific complications following AHLT among patients with a high MELD score (≥ 30). Among these patients, the incidence of complications classified as Clavien-Dindo grade III or above was significantly higher in patients undergoing AHLT than in those undergoing AWLT (25.7% vs. 11.4%, P = 0.047). For the MELD < 30 group, there was no significant difference in the incidence of complications classified as Clavien-Dindo grade III or above for patients undergoing AHLT or AWLT.

Conclusion

In patients with an MELD score < 30, AHLT can achieve rates of mortality and overall survival comparable to AWLT. In those with an MELD score ≥ 30, the prognosis and incidence of complications classified as Clavien-Dindo III or above are significantly worse for AHLT than for AWLT; therefore, we may need to be more cautious regarding the conclusion that patients with a high MELD score can safely undergo AHLT.

Management of chronic liver disease-associated severe thrombocytopenia in Spain: a view from the experts

BACKGROUND

chronic liver disease (CLD) patients often present thrombocytopenia (TCP) and when severe, it may prevent them from undergoing necessary invasive procedures due to an increased bleeding risk. The lack of scientific evidence makes it impossible to determine key aspects of the current management and associated healthcare burden of these patients in Spain.

PURPOSE

to gain insight into the current situation of patients with CLD-associated severe TCP undergoing invasive procedures in Spain, based on the experience of clinical experts.

METHODS

national Delphi study involving 32 medical experts.

RESULTS

the estimated prevalence of CLD-associated severe TCP is approximately 5,967, with an annual incidence of 1,148 new patients. Patients undergo a median of 1 (0-3) invasive procedures/year. Platelet transfusions (PTs) are the standard option to raise platelet counts and are associated with significant burden. The achievement of target platelet levels (≥ 50 x 109/l) after a transfusion is not routinely measured. The lack of effectiveness and short life span of transfused platelets can lead to procedure cancellations and bleeding events, which potentially affect patient outcomes. Adverse events occur in 1-25 % of patients, including mild (febrile and allergic reactions) and severe events (e.g., transfusion-related acute lung injury). Between 5-15 % of patients are unfit to receive PTs and approximately 3 % are treated off-label with thrombopoietin receptor agonists.

CONCLUSIONS

this study provides a snapshot of the current situation in Spain, highlighting that the current management is poorly standardized and suboptimal in some cases. The results suggest the benefit of developing a consensus document to address some of these shortcomings and to advance in the search for alternatives to PTs.

Early rebleeding increases mortality of variecal bleeders on secondary prophylaxis with β-blockers and ligation

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Despite secondary-prophylaxis with β-blockers and endoscopic-variceal-ligation rebleeding is frequent, particularly within the first-6-weeks. Early-rebleeding may have greater impact on death-risk than late rebleeding, which may affect therapy. We assessed whether the influence of rebleeding on long-term survival of patients on secondary-prophylaxis is greater in patients with early-rebleeding.

METHODS

369 patients with cirrhosis were consecutively included once recovered from first variceal-bleeding. The impact of rebleeding on survival was investigated according to whether it occurred within 6-weeks (early-rebleeding) or later (late-rebleeding).

RESULTS

During 46-months of follow-up (IQR: 14-61), 45 patients (12%) had early-rebleeding, 74(20%) had late-rebleeding and 250(68%) had not rebleeding. Mortality risk was higher in early-rebleeding group vs. late-rebleeding (HR = 0.476, 95%CI = 0.318-0.712, p < 0.001) and was similar in late-rebleeding group vs. no-rebleeding (HR = 0.902, 95%CI = 0.749-1.086, p = 0.271). Adjusting for baseline risk-factors, early-rebleeding was independently associated with mortality-risk (HR = 1.58, 95%CI = 1.02-2.45; p = 0.04). Child-Pugh&MELD scores improved at 3rd-4th-week only in patients without early-rebleeding (p < 0.05). Presence of ascites or encephalopathy, MELD-score>12 and HVPG>20 mmHg identified patients at risk of early-rebleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with early-rebleeding have higher risk of death than patients without rebleeding and even than those rebleeding later. Our results suggest that patients at risk of early rebleeding might benefit from preemptive therapies such as early-TIPS.

Uptake of endoscopic screening for gastroesophageal varices and factors associated with variceal bleeding in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection and compensated cirrhosis, 2005-2016: a national database linkage study

BACKGROUND

Primary measures for preventing morbidity and mortality associated with bleeding gastroesophageal varices in cirrhotic patients include endoscopic screening.

AIM

To identify factors associated with (a) screening and (b) first hospital admission for variceal bleeding among cirrhotic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients attending specialist care in Scotland.

METHODS

The Scottish Hepatitis C Clinical Database was linked to national hospitalisation and deaths records to identify all chronic HCV patients diagnosed with compensated cirrhosis in 2005-2016 (n = 2741). The adjusted odds of being screened by calendar year period were estimated using logistic regression, and the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of a first variceal bleed using Cox regression.

RESULTS

About 34% were screened within the period starting 12 months before and ending 12 months after cirrhosis diagnosis. The proportion screened was stable in 2005-2010 at 42%, declining to 37% in 2011-2013 and 26% in 2014-2016. Odds of screening were decreased for age-groups <40 (OR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.48-0.77) and 60+ years (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.48-0.94), history of antiviral therapy (OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.55-0.89), and cirrhosis diagnosis in 2014-2015, compared with 2008-2010 (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.52-0.86). Compared with 2008-2010, there was no evidence for an increased/decreased relative risk of a first variceal bleed in any other period, but viral clearance was associated with a lower risk (HR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.32-0.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall screening uptake following cirrhosis diagnosis was low, and the decline in recent years is of concern. The stable bleeding risk over time may be attributable both to ongoing prevention initiatives and to changing diagnostic procedures creating a patient pool with milder disease in more recent years.

Betablockers do not increase efficacy of band ligation in primary prophylaxis but they improve survival in secondary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic band ligation (EBL) is used for primary (PP) and secondary prophylaxis (SP) of variceal bleeding. Current guidelines recommend combined use of non-selective beta-blockers (NSBBs) and EBL for SP, while in PP either NSBB or EBL should be used.

AIM

To assess (re-)bleeding rates and mortality in cirrhotic patients receiving EBL for PP or SP for variceal bleeding.

METHODS

(Re-)bleeding rates and mortality were retrospectively assessed with and without concomitant NSBB therapy after first EBL in PP and SP.

RESULTS

Seven hundred and sixty-six patients with oesophageal varices underwent EBL from 01/2005 to 06/2015. Among the 284 patients undergoing EBL for PP, n = 101 (35.6%) received EBL only, while n = 180 (63.4%) received EBL + NSBBs. In 482 patients on SP, n = 163 (33.8%) received EBL only, while n = 299 (62%) received EBL + NSBBs. In PP, concomitant NSBB therapy neither decreased bleeding rates (log-rank: P = 0.353) nor mortality (log-rank: P = 0.497) as compared to EBL alone. In SP, similar re-bleeding rates were documented in EBL + NSBB vs EBL alone (log-rank: P = 0.247). However, EBL + NSBB resulted in a significantly lower mortality rate (log-rank: P<0.001). A decreased risk of death with EBL + NSBB in SP (hazard ratio, HR: 0.50; P<0.001) but not of rebleeding, transplantation or further decompensation was confirmed by competing risk analysis. Overall NSBB intake reduced 6-months mortality (HR: 0.53, P = 0.008) in SP, which was most pronounced in patients without severe/refractory ascites (HR: 0.37; P = 0.001) but not observed in patients with severe/refractory ascites (HR: 0.80; P = 0.567).

CONCLUSIONS

EBL alone seems sufficient for PP of variceal bleeding. In SP, the addition of NSBB to EBL was associated with an improved survival within the first 6 months after EBL.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt does not independently increase risk of death in high model for end stage liver disease patients

Physicians often exclude patients with a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥ 18 from a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure due to the concern for higher risk of death. We aimed to determine if TIPS increased the risk of death in these patients. We analyzed the interaction between TIPS and MELD in 106 patients with TIPS and 79 with intractable ascites without TIPS. We performed Cox proportional hazard regression, including both TIPS and MELD as time-dependent covariates together with their interaction, to calculate the impact of TIPS on the risk of death associated with a high MELD score. We found a negative interaction between a high MELD score and a history of TIPS, with potentially important effect sizes. Patients with MELD scores ≥18 had a 51% lower incremental risk of death (lower risk than would be expected from the combined independent risks of MELD and needing/receiving TIPS) associated with TIPS than patients with MELD scores <18 (hazard ratio for TIPS, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.10-2.45) in the first 6 months following TIPS. There was an 80% lower incremental risk of death among patients with a MELD score ≥18 (hazard ratio for TIPS, 0.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.03-1.23) 6 months after the TIPS procedure. Conclusion: Risk of death is associated with underlying disease severity as shown by the MELD score and the need for TIPS, and both history of TIPS and high MELD score independently increased the risk of mortality. However, the risk of death after TIPS was progressively lower than expected as the MELD score increased. (Hepatology Communications 2017;1:460-468).

Serum C-reactive protein predicts early mortality in hospitalized patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis

The serum C-reactive protein (CRP) is an inflammatory marker. The aim of the present study was to elucidate whether CRP could serve as a potential surrogate marker for 30-day mortality in hospitalized patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis (HBV-DeCi).This was a retrospective cohort study that included 140 patients with HBV-DeCi. All patients were followed up for 1-month. A panel of clinical and biochemical variables were analyzed for potential associations with outcomes using multiple regression models.The serum CRP was significantly higher in nonsurviving patients than in surviving patients. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that CRP levels (odds ratio: 1.047, P = 0.002) and the model for end-stage liver disease score (odds ratio: 1.370, P = 0.001) were independent predictors for mortality.Serum CRP is a simple marker that may serve as an additional predictor of 1-month mortality in hospitalized patients with HBV-DeCi.

No difference in mortality between terlipressin and somatostatin treatments in cirrhotic patients with esophageal variceal bleeding and renal functional impairment

OBJECTIVE

To study the differences in mortality between terlipressin and somatostatin treatments in cirrhotic patients with esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB) and renal functional impairment (RFI).

METHODS

The National Health Insurance Database, part of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program, was used to enroll cirrhotic patients who had received endoscopic variceal ligation plus somatostatin or terlipressin for EVB and who were hospitalized between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2010. The differences in mortality between the two vasoactive agents were compared and the risk factors for 30-day mortality because of EVB were identified.

RESULTS

A total of 2324 cirrhotic patients with EVB were enrolled. The 30-day mortality data showed no significant differences between the somatostatin and the terlipressin groups (P=0.232). The risk of 30-day mortality was significantly higher in male patients [hazard ratio (HR): 1.50, P=0.002] and patients with hepatic encephalopathy (HR: 1.82, P<0.001), ascites (HR: 1.32, P=0.008), bacterial infections (HR: 2.10, P<0.001), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR: 2.09, P<0.001), and RFI (HR: 3.89, P<0.001). A subgroup analysis of cirrhotic patients with RFI was carried out. The overall 30-day mortality was higher in patients treated with somatostatin than in those treated with terlipressin (52.6 vs. 42.3%), but the difference failed to reach significance (adjust HR: 1.49, 95% confidence interval: 0.94-2.37, P=0.091).

CONCLUSION

RFI was the most important risk factor for 30-day mortality in EVB patients. Terlipressin and somatostatin had similar effects on 30-day mortality in cirrhotic patients with EVB and RFI.

Characterization of gastrointestinal hemorrhage and prediction of mortality in Asian patients with alcoholic hepatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) often accompanies alcoholic hepatitis (AH). The study aimed to investigate clinical characteristics of GIB in AH patients and to identify risk factors for mortality in AH patients with GIB.

METHODS

Data from 329 patients hospitalized with AH in a single center during 1999-2014 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with AH were dichotomized into GIB and non-GIB groups. The GIB group was further divided into portal hypertensive bleeding (PHB) and non-PHB groups. Clinical characteristics and survival outcomes were compared between the groups. Risk factors for mortality were analyzed using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Among the 329 AH patients, 132 experienced GIB at admission or during hospitalization. The most common cause of GIB was an esophageal varix. The GIB group had worse survival outcomes than the non-GIB group (log-rank test, P = 0.034). The PHB group had worse survival outcomes than the non-PHB group (log-rank test, P = 0.001). On multivariate analysis, alcohol consumption, ascites, encephalopathy, infection, Maddrey's discriminant function, and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score independently predicted mortality in the entire AH cohort. The MELD score (hazard ratio, 1.085; 95% confidence interval, 1.052-1.120; P < 0.001) and PHB (hazard ratio, 2.162; 95% confidence interval, 1.021-4.577; P = 0.044) were significant prognosticators for patients with AH and GIB.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of PHB and a higher MELD score adversely affected survival in AH patients with GIB. Accordingly, prompt endoscopic examination for exploring the etiologies of GIB may alert physicians to predict the risk of death in AH patients with GIB.

Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Child-Pugh and MELD scores have been widely used for the assessment of prognosis in liver cirrhosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the discriminative ability of Child-Pugh versus MELD score to assess the prognosis of cirrhotic patients.PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. The statistical results were summarized from every individual study. The summary areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios were also calculated.Of the 1095 papers initially identified, 119 were eligible for the systematic review. Study population was heterogeneous among studies. They included 269 comparisons, of which 44 favored MELD score, 16 favored Child-Pugh score, 99 did not find any significant difference between them, and 110 did not report the statistical significance. Forty-two papers were further included in the meta-analysis. In patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, Child-Pugh score had a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity than MELD score. In patients admitted to ICU, MELD score had a smaller negative likelihood ratio and a higher sensitivity than Child-Pugh score. In patients undergoing surgery, Child-Pugh score had a higher specificity than MELD score. In other subgroup analyses, Child-Pugh and MELD scores had statistically similar discriminative abilities or could not be compared due to the presence of significant diagnostic threshold effects.Although Child-Pugh and MELD scores had similar prognostic values in most of cases, their benefits might be heterogeneous in some specific conditions. The indications for Child-Pugh and MELD scores should be further identified.

A Novel Easy-to-Use Prediction Scheme for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Cologne-WATCH (C-WATCH) Risk Score

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is the leading indication for emergency endoscopy. Scoring schemes have been developed for immediate risk stratification. However, most of these scores include endoscopic findings and are based on data from patients with nonvariceal bleeding. The aim of our study was to design a pre-endoscopic score for acute UGIB--including variceal bleeding--in order to identify high-risk patients requiring urgent clinical management. The scoring system was developed using a data set consisting of 586 patients with acute UGIB. These patients were identified from the emergency department as well as all inpatient services at the University Hospital of Cologne within a 2-year period (01/2007-12/2008). Further data from a cohort of 322 patients who presented to our endoscopy unit with acute UGIB in 2009 served for external/temporal validation.Clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic parameters, as well as further data on medical history and medication were retrospectively collected from the electronic clinical documentation system. A multivariable logistic regression was fitted to the development set to obtain a risk score using recurrent bleeding, need for intervention (angiography, surgery), or death within 30 days as a composite endpoint. Finally, the obtained risk score was evaluated on the validation set. Only C-reactive protein, white blood cells, alanine-aminotransferase, thrombocytes, creatinine, and hemoglobin were identified as significant predictors for the composite endpoint. Based on the regression coefficients of these variables, an easy-to-use point scoring scheme (C-WATCH) was derived to estimate the risk of complications from 3% to 86% with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.723 in the development set and 0.704 in the validation set. In the validation set, no patient in the identified low-risk group (0-1 points), but 38.7% of patients in the high-risk group (≥ 2 points) reached the composite endpoint. Our easy-to-use scoring scheme is able to distinguish high-risk patients requiring urgent endoscopy, from low-risk cases who are suitable candidates for outpatient management or in whom endoscopy may be postponed. Based on our findings, a prospective validation of the C-WATCH score in different patient populations outside the university hospital setting seems warranted.

β-2 Adrenergic receptor gene polymorphism and response to propranolol in cirrhosis

AIM: To evaluate the association of β-2 adrenergic receptor (β₂-AR) gene polymorphism with response of variceal pressure to propranolol in cirrhosis.

METHODS: Sixty-four non-related cirrhotic patients participated in this study and accepted variceal pressure measurement before and after propranolol administration. Polymorphism of the β₂-AR gene was determined by directly sequencing of the polymerase chain reaction products from the DNA samples that were prepared from the patients.

RESULTS: The prevalence of Gly16-Glu/Gln27 and Arg16-Gln27 homozygotes, and compound heterozygotes was 29.7%, 10.9%, and 59.4%, respectively. Patients with cirrhosis with Gly16-Glu/Gln27 homozygotes had a greater decrease of variceal pressure after propranolol administration than those with Arg16-Gln27 homozygotes or with compound heterozygotes (22.4% ± 2.1%, 13.1% ± 2.7% and 12.5% ± 3.1%, respectively, P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION: The variceal pressure response to propranolol was associated with polymorphism of β₂-AR gene. Patients with the Gly¹⁶-Glu/Gln²⁷ homozygotes probably benefit from propranolol therapy.

Child-Pugh versus MELD score for predicting the in-hospital mortality of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding in liver cirrhosis

A retrospective study was conducted to compare the performance of Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Diseases (MELD) scores for predicting the in-hospital mortality of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in patients with liver cirrhosis. A total of 145 patients with a diagnosis of liver cirrhosis and acute UGIB between July 2013 and June 2014 were retrospectively analyzed (male/female: 94/51; mean age: 56.77±11.33 years; Child-Pugh class A/B/C: 46/64/35; mean Child-Pugh score: 7.88±2.17; mean MELD score: 7.86±7.22). The in-hospital mortality was 8% (11/145). Areas under receiving-operator characteristics curve (AUROC) for predicting the in-hospital mortality were compared between MELD and Child-Pugh scores. AUROCs for predicting the in-hospital mortality for Child-Pugh and MELD scores were 0.796 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.721-0.858) and 0.810 (95% CI: 0.736-0.870), respectively. The discriminative ability was not significant different between the two scoring systems (P=0.7241). In conclusion, Child-Pugh and MELD scores were similar for predicting the in-hospital mortality of acute UGIB in cirrhotic patients.

A risk scoring system to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with cirrhosis presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

GOALS

We aimed to develop a simple and practical risk scoring system to predict in-hospital mortality in cirrhotics presenting with upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding.

STUDY

Extensive clinical data were captured in patients with documented cirrhosis who underwent endoscopic evaluation for upper GI bleeding between January 1, 2003 and June 30, 2011 at Parkland Memorial Hospital. Predictors of mortality were identified by multivariate regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 884 patients with cirrhosis admitted for upper GI bleeding were identified; 809 patients survived and 75 died (8.4%). The etiology of bleeding was similar in both groups, with bleeding attributed to esophageal varices in 59% of survivors and 60% of non-survivors (ulcer disease and other etiologies of bleeding accounted for the other causes of bleeding). Mortality was 8.6% and 8.3% in patients with variceal bleeding and nonvariceal bleeding, respectively. While survivors and those who died were similarly matched with regard to gender, age, ethnicity and etiology of cirrhosis, patients who died had lower systolic blood pressures, higher pulse rates and lower mean arterial pressures at admission than patients who survived. Non-survivors were more likely to be Childs C (61% vs. 19%, P<0.001). Multivariate regression analysis identified the following 4 predictors of in-hospital mortality: use of vasoactive pressors, number of packed red blood cells transfused, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and serum albumin. A receiver operating characteristic curve including these 4 variables yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.94 (95% confidence interval, 0.91-0.98). Classification and Regression Tree analysis yielded similar results, identifying vasoactive pressors and then MELD>21 as the most important decision nodes for predicting death. By comparison, using the Rockall scoring system in the same patients, the AUROC curve was 0.70 (95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.76 and the comparison of the University of Texas Southwestern model to the Rockall model revealed P<0.0001). A validation set comprised of 150 unique admissions between July 1, 2011 and July 31, 2012, had an AUROC of 0.92, and the outcomes of 97% of the subjects in this set were accurately predicted by the risk score model.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of vasoactive agents, packed red blood cell transfusion, albumin, and MELD score were highly predictive of in-hospital mortality in cirrhotics presenting with upper GI bleeding. These variables were used to formulate a clinical risk scoring system for in-hospital mortality, which is available at: http://medweb.musc.edu/LogisticModelPredictor.

Carvedilol for primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients with haemodynamic non-response to propranolol

OBJECTIVE

Non-selective β-blockers or endoscopic band ligation (EBL) are recommended for primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding in patients with oesophageal varices. Additional α-adrenergic blockade (as by carvedilol) may increase the number of patients with haemodynamic response (reduction in hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) of ≥ 20% or to values <12 mm Hg).

DESIGN

Patients with oesophageal varices undergoing measurement of HVPG before and under propranolol treatment (80-160 mg/day) were included. HVPG responders were kept on propranolol (PROP group), while non-responders were placed on carvedilol (6.25-50 mg/day). Carvedilol responders continued treatment (CARV group), while non-responders to carvedilol underwent EBL. The primary aim was to assess haemodynamic response rates to carvedilol in propranolol non-responders.

RESULTS

36% (37/104) of patients showed a HVPG response to propranolol. Among the propranolol non-responders 56% (38/67) eventually achieved a haemodynamic response with carvedilol, while 44% (29/67) patients were finally treated with EBL. The decrease in HVPG was significantly greater with carvedilol (median 12.5 mg/day) than with propranolol (median 100 mg/day): -19 ± 10% versus -12 ± 11% (p<0.001). During a 2 year follow-up bleeding rates for PROP were 11% versus CARV 5% versus EBL 25% (p=0.0429). Fewer episodes of hepatic decompensation (PROP 38%/CARV 26% vs EBL 55%; p=0.0789) and significantly lower mortality (PROP 14%/CARV 11% vs EBL 31%; p=0.0455) were observed in haemodynamic responders compared to the EBL group.

CONCLUSIONS

Carvedilol leads to a significantly greater decrease in HVPG than propranolol. Using carvedilol for primary prophylaxis a substantial proportion of non-responders to propranolol can achieve a haemodynamic response, which is associated with improved outcome with regard to prevention of variceal bleeding, hepatic decompensation and death.

Value of the APASL severity score in patients with acute variceal bleeding: a single center experience

BACKGROUND

Acute variceal bleeding is a severe complication in patients with cirrhosis. The Asian Pacific Association for Study of the Liver (APASL) severity score was proposed in 2011. This score is used for evaluating the severity of acute variceal bleeding. However, as this score is largely based on expert opinion, it requires validation.

AIM

To determine the value of the APASL severity score.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients treated for acute variceal bleeding at Konkuk University Hospital from 2006 to 2011. The APASL severity score, Child-Pugh score, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score were calculated, and predictive values for treatment failure, rebleeding, and in-hospital mortality were compared by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

A total of 136 patients were enrolled, and all patients were treated by endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) and terlipressin combination therapy. Most patients were male (n = 123, 90.4 %), and the most common etiology was alcohol (n = 91, 66.9 %). Thirteen treatment failures, eight rebleedings, and seven in-hospital mortalities occurred. The AUROCs of the APASL severity score, Child-Pugh score, and MELD score were 0.760, 0.681, and 0.607 for treatment failure; 0.660, 0.714, and 0.677 for rebleeding; and 0.872, 0.847, and 0.735 for in-hospital mortality. A significant difference was only observed between the APASL severity score and MELD score for treatment failure (p = 0.0259).

CONCLUSION

APASL severity score was a useful method for predicting treatment failure. However, the predictive value for rebleeding and in-hospital mortality were not satisfactory.

Management of varices in patients with cirrhosis

Variceal bleeding remains a life-threatening condition with a 6-week mortality rate of ∼20%. Prevention of variceal bleeding can be achieved using nonselective β-blockers (NSBBs) or endoscopic band ligation (EBL), with NSBBs as the first-line treatment. EBL should be reserved for cases of intolerance or contraindications to NSBBs. Although NSBBs cannot be used to prevent varices, if the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) is ≤10 mmHg, prognosis is excellent. Survival after acute variceal bleeding has improved over the past three decades, but patients with Child-Pugh grade C cirrhosis remain at greatest risk. Vasoactive drugs combined with endoscopic therapy and antibiotics are the best therapeutic strategy for these patients. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS) should be used in patients with uncontrolled bleeding or those who are likely to have difficult-to-control bleeding. Rebleeding from varices occurs in ∼60% of patients 1-2 years after the initial bleeding episode, with a mortality rate of 30%. Secondary prophylaxis should start at day 6 after initial bleeding using a combination of NSBBs and EBL. TIPS with polytetrafluoroethylene-covered stents are the preferred option in patients who fail combined treatment with NSBBs and EBL. Despite the improvement in patient survival, further studies are needed to direct the management of patients with gastro-oesophageal varices and variceal bleeding.

Blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio independently predicts survival in patients with liver cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a novel inflammation index that has been shown to independently predict poor clinical outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the role of NLR in the prediction of long-term mortality in patients with stable liver cirrhosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a retrospective observational cohort study in which 145 stable cirrhotic patients without infection, hepatocellular carcinoma, and ongoing steroid therapy were enrolled between January 2009 and December 2011. The primary end point was survival during follow-up. NLR along with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, and Charlson comorbidity index were assessed for the prediction of mortality.

RESULTS

There were 86 men and 59 women, mean age 58.9±13.4 years. The etiologies of liver cirrhosis included viral hepatitis (n=73), cryptogenic (50), alcoholic (12), and other (10). The mean follow-up duration was 27.8±6.8 months, during which 40 patients died. The mean NLRs were 2.08±0.99 and 4.39±3.0 in surviving and nonsurviving patients, respectively (P<0.001). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was carried out according to the median NLR above and below 2.72. Patients with NLR of at least 2.72 had a significantly lower survival (log rank, P<0.001). NLR was found to be an independent predictor of mortality in all Cox Regression models (odds ratio 1.2; 95% confidence interval 1.2-1.3; P<0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that cut-off values of 4.22, 3.07, and 2.96 for NLR predicted 12, 24, and 36-month mortality, respectively (AUC: 0.806, P=0.0029; 0.841, P<0.0001 and 0.783, P<0.0001, respectively).

CONCLUSION

NLR is a predictor of mortality independent of CTP and MELD scores in patients with liver cirrhosis. NLR could predict mortality in the subgroup of patients with low MELD scores as well.

Model for End-stage Liver Disease

Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, initially developed to predict survival following transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt was subsequently found to be accurate predictor of mortality amongst patents with end-stage liver disease. Since 2002, MELD score using 3 objective variables (serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, and institutional normalized ratio) has been used worldwide for listing and transplanting patients with end-stage liver disease allowing transplanting sicker patients first irrespective of the wait time on the list. MELD score has also been shown to be accurate predictor of survival amongst patients with alcoholic hepatitis, following variceal hemorrhage, infections in cirrhosis, after surgery in patients with cirrhosis including liver resection, trauma, and hepatorenal syndrome (HRS). Although, MELD score is closest to the ideal score, there are some limitations including its inaccuracy in predicting survival in 15-20% cases. Over the last decade, many efforts have been made to further improve and refine MELD score. Until, a better score is developed, liver allocation would continue based on the currently used MELD score.

Clinical applications of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) in hepatic medicine

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score incorporates serum bilirubin, creatinine, and the international normalized ratio (INR) into a formula that provides a continuous variable that is a very accurate predictor of 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis. It is currently utilized in the United States to prioritize deceased donor organ allocation for patients listed for liver transplantation. The MELD score is superior to other prognostic models in patients with end-stage liver disease, such as the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, since it uses only objective criteria, and its implementation in 2002 led to a sharp reduction in the number of people waiting for liver transplant and reduced mortality on the waiting list without affecting posttransplant survival. Although mainly adopted for use in patients waiting for liver transplant, the MELD score has also proved to be an effective predictor of outcome in other situations, such as patients with cirrhosis going for surgery and patients with fulminant hepatic failure or alcoholic hepatitis. Several variations of the original MELD score, involving the addition of serum sodium or looking at the change in MELD over time, have been examined, and these may slightly improve its accuracy. The MELD score does have limitations in situations where the INR or creatinine may be elevated due to reasons other than liver disease, and its implementation for organ allocation purposes does not take into consideration several conditions that benefit from liver transplantation. The application of the MELD score in prioritizing patients for liver transplantation has been successful, but further studies and legislation are required to ensure a fair and equitable system.