Predrainage and Postdrainage Prognostic Nomograms to Predict Outcome of Percutaneous Drainage for Infected Pancreatic and Peripancreatic Necrotic Collections

Nomogram development and validation for predicting minimally invasive step-up approach failure in infected necrotizing pancreatitis patients: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown that minimally invasive treatment for infected necrotizing pancreatitis (INP) may be safer and more effective than open necrosectomy (ON), but ON is still irreplaceable in a portion of INP patients. Furthermore, there is a lack of tools to identify INP patients at risk of minimally invasive step-up approach failure (eventually received ON or died), which may enable appropriate treatment for them. Our study aims to identify risk factors that can predict minimally invasive step-up approach failure in INP patients and to develop a nomogram for early prediction.

METHODS

Multivariate logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association between minimally invasive step-up approach failure and factors regarding demographics, disease severity, laboratory index, and the location of extrapancreatic necrotic collections. A novel nomogram was developed, and its performance was validated both internally and externally by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness.

RESULTS

There were 267, 89, and 107 patients in the training, internal, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that the computed tomography severity index (CTSI) greater than 8 points, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score of 16 points or more, early spontaneous bleeding, fungi infection, granulocyte and platelet decrease within 30 days of acute pancreatitis onset, and extrapancreatic necrosis collection located in small bowel mesentery were independent risk factors for minimally invasive step-up approach failure. The area under the curve and coefficient of determination ( R2 ) of the nomogram constructed from the above factors were 0.920 and 0.644, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the model had good fitness ( P =0.206). In addition, the nomogram performed well in both the internal and external validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram had a good performance in predicting minimally invasive step-up approach failure, which may help clinicians distinguish INP patients at risk of minimally invasive step-up approach failure early.

Association between morphological features of necrotizing pancreatitis on endoscopic ultrasound and outcomes of the endoscopic transmural step-up approach

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between necrotic collections on endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) and outcomes of the endoscopic transmural step-up approach in necrotizing pancreatitis (NP).

METHODS

Adult NP patients who had undergone endoscopic transmural step-up approach, endoscopic transmural drainage or endoscopic transmural necrosectomy, were retrospectively enrolled, and divided into groups 1, 2 and 3 based on the amount of solid necrotic debris (quantified as a percentage of the total collection size of <30%, 30%-50%, and >50%).

RESULTS

A total of 134 patients were included, of whom 52, 59 and 23 patients were categorized into groups 1, 2 and 3. Patients with more solid necrotic debris required more necrosectomy sessions (group 3 vs group 2 vs group 1: 2.0 vs 1.0 vs 1.0, P < 0.001), were more likely to experience stent occlusion (group 3 vs group 2 vs group 1: 34.8% vs 16.9% vs 9.6%, P = 0.011), and had a longer hospitalization (group 3 vs group 2 vs group 1: 40.0 d vs 28.0 d vs 25.5 d, P = 0.015). High procalcitonin level (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 6.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.40-26.94, P = 0.016) and any organ failure (aOR 11.51, 95% CI 2.42-54.78, P = 0.002) were independently associated with clinical failure of endoscopic transmural step-up approach.

CONCLUSIONS

More solid necrotic debris on EUS is related to more necrosectomy sessions, higher incidence of stent occlusion and longer hospitalization. A nomogram combining procalcitonin and any organ failure performs well in predicting clinical failure of endoscopic transmural step-up approach.

Streptokinase irrigation through a percutaneous catheter helps decrease the need for necrosectomy and reduces mortality in necrotizing pancreatitis as part of a step-up approach

BACKGROUND

Percutaneous catheter drainage in pancreatic necrosis with a predominant solid component has a reduced success rate. To improve the efficacy of percutaneous catheter drainage, we used streptokinase in the irrigation fluid in the present study.

METHODS

In this retrospective analysis of 4 prospective randomized studies performed at our center from 2014 to 2019, 108 patients were evaluated. We assessed the safety, feasibility, and efficacy of streptokinase irrigation compared to saline irrigation. Data were also analyzed between 50,000 IU and 150,000 IU streptokinase.

RESULTS

There were 53 patients in the streptokinase irrigation group and 55 in the saline irrigation group, and both groups were comparable in terms of age, sex, etiology, APACHE II score, and percutaneous catheter drainage characteristics. The modified computerised tomography severity index and modified Marshall score at the onset of pain were significantly higher in the streptokinase group. Sepsis reversal was significantly higher in the streptokinase group (75% vs 36%), and the need for necrosectomy (34% vs 54%) was also lower in the streptokinase group. Mortality was lower in the streptokinase group than in the saline group (32% vs 40%). The incidence of bleeding in the streptokinase group was lower than that in the saline group (7% vs 18%). A higher dose of streptokinase (150,000 IU) resulted in lower rates of necrosectomy, bleeding, and mortality compared to those with 50,000 IU streptokinase.

CONCLUSION

Significant reductions in the need for surgery and sepsis reversal were noted in the streptokinase group. The results using 150,000 IU streptokinase were superior to those using 50,000 IU streptokinase.