The Impact of Covid-19 State Closure Orders on Consumer Spending, Employment, and Business Revenue

Big data-driven spatio-temporal heterogeneity analysis of Beijing's catering service industry during the COVID-19 pandemic

The Catering Service Industry (CSI) experienced profound impacts due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the long-term and multi-timepoint analysis using big data remained limited, influencing governmental decision-making. We applied Kernel Density Estimation, Shannon Diversity Index, and the Geographic detector to explore the spatial heterogeneity and determinants of the CSI in Beijing during the pandemic, with monthly granularity. The temporal-spatial dynamics of the CSI presented a "W"-shaped trend from 2018 to 2023, with pivotal shifts aligning with key pandemic stages. Spatial characteristics exhibited heterogeneity, with greater stability in the city center and more pronounced shifts in peripheral urban zones. Districts facing intricate outbreaks showed lower catering income, and Chinese eateries exhibited heightened resilience compared to others. The CSI displayed strong interconnections with living service sectors. Development in each district was influenced by economic level, population distribution, service facilities convenience, and the risk of the COVID-19 pandemic. Dominant factors included total retail sales of consumer goods, permanent population, average Baidu Heat Index, density of transportation and catering service facilities, infection cases and the consecutive days with confirmed cases existing. Consequently, we suggested seizing post-pandemic recovery as an avenue to unlock the CSI's substantial potential, ushering a fresh phase of growth.

Gender Differences in the Impact of the Informal Economy on the Labor Market: Evidence From Middle Eastern Countries

Although considerable discussion has been devoted to the macro determinants of labor market variables across genders, comparatively little attention has been given to the contribution of the informal economy to this market. This study was aimed at empirically investigating the impact of the size of the shadow or informal economy (IE) on labor market variables across genders in 12 Middle Eastern countries. The study used quarterly time series data on each country under investigation, covering 1991 to 2015. Phillips-Perron unit root tests were carried out to verify the stationarity of the examined economic series. An autoregressive distributed lag approach was adopted to conduct cointegration tests and estimate long-run regression coefficients and error correction terms. The results indicated that the IE served men and women differently across countries. Whereas this economy had a long-run positive relationship with men's employment rates in Bahrain, Iran, Qatar, and Turkey, this relationship existed among women only in Israel. IE activities matter in the employment of men and women in Middle Eastern countries. The sizes of IEs in the labor market are a significant factor that favors men's employment rather than that of women.

The Association Between State-Issued Mask Mandates and County COVID-19 Hospitalization Rates

CONTEXT

Mask mandates are one form of nonpharmaceutical intervention that has been utilized to combat the spread of SARS-CoV2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE

This study examines the association between state-issued mask mandates and changes in county-level and hospital referral region (HRR)-level COVID-19 hospitalizations across the United States.

DESIGN

Difference-in-difference and event study models were estimated to examine the association between state-issued mask mandates and COVID-19 hospitalization outcomes.

PARTICIPANTS

All analyses were conducted with US county-level data.

INTERVENTIONS

State-issued mask mandates. County-level data on the mandates were collected from executive orders identified on state government Web sites from April 1, 2020, to December 31, 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Daily county-level (and HRR-level) estimates of inpatient beds occupied by patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 were collected by the US Department of Health and Human Services.

RESULTS

The state issuing of mask mandates was associated with an average of 3.6 fewer daily COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100 000 people (P < .05) and a 1.2-percentage-point decrease in the percentage of county beds occupied with COVID-19 patients (P < .05) within 70 days of taking effect. Event study results suggest that this association increased the longer mask mandates were in effect. In addition, the results were robust to analyses conducted at the HRR level.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that state-issued mask mandates were associated with reduction in COVID-19 hospitalizations across the United States during the earlier portion of the pandemic. As new variants of the virus cause spikes in COVID-19 cases, reimposing mask mandates in indoor and congested public areas, as part of a layered approach to community mitigation, may reduce the spread of COVID-19 and lessen the burden on our health care system.

The Differential Impact of Reopening States With and Without COVID-19 Face Mask Mandates on County-Level Consumer Spending

Objectives:

By the end of 2020, 38 states and the District of Columbia had issued requirements that people wear face masks when in public settings to counter SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To examine the role face mask mandates played in economic recovery, we analyzed the interactive effect of having a state face mask mandate in place on county-level consumer spending after state reopening, adjusting for county rates of new COVID-19 cases and deaths, time trends, and county-specific effects.

Methods:

We collected county-specific data from state executive orders, consumer spending data from the Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker, and COVID-19 case and death data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 tracker. Using an event study approach, we compared county-level changes in consumer spending before and after state-issued closure orders were lifted and assessed the interactive effect of state-issued face mask mandates.

Results:

The lifting of state-issued closures was associated with an average increase in consumer spending across all counties studied within 1 month. However, the increase was 1.2-1.7 percentage points higher in counties with a state face mask mandate in place than in counties without a state face mask mandate.

Conclusions:

In addition to their public health benefits, face mask mandates may have assisted economic recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting they are a strong public health strategy for policy makers to consider now and for potential future pandemics arising from airborne viruses.