Verbal Descriptions of the Probability of Treatment Complications Lead to High Variability in Risk Perceptions: A Survey Study

Association between pediatric traumatic brain injury and epilepsy at later ages in Finland: A nationwide register-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

This study was undertaken to examine how pediatric traumatic brain injury (pTBI) correlates with incidence of epilepsy at later ages in Finland.

METHODS

This nationwide retrospective register-based cohort study extended from 1998 to 2018. The study group consisted of 71 969 pediatric (<18 years old) patients hospitalized with TBI and a control group consisting of 64 856 pediatric patients with distal extremity fracture. Epilepsy diagnoses were gathered from the Finnish Social Insurance Institution. Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox regression models were conducted to analyze the probability of epilepsy with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Cumulative incidence rates (CIRs) for the first 2 years were .5% in the pTBI group and .1% in the control group. The corresponding rates after 15 years of follow-up were 1.5% in the pTBI group and .7% in the control group. Due to proportional hazard violations, the study population was split to the first 2 years and in subgroup analysis 4 years. During the first 2 years of surveillance, the hazard ratio (HR) for the pTBI group was 4.38 (95% CI = 3.39-5.66). However, between years 2 and 20, the HR for the pTBI group was 2.02 (95% CI = 1.71-2.38). A total of 337 patients (.47%) underwent neurosurgery, and 36 (10.7%) patients subsequently developed epilepsy. The CIR for the first year after TBI was 4.5% (95% CI = 2.3-6.7) in operatively managed patients and .3% (95% CI = .3-.4) in nonoperatively managed patients. Corresponding figures after 15 years were 12.0% (95% CI = 8.2-15.8) and 1.5% (95% CI = 1.4-1.6). During the first 4 years of surveillance, the HR for the operative pTBI group was 14.37 (95% CI = 9.29-20.80) and 3.67 (95% CI = 1.63-8.22) between years 4 and 20.

SIGNIFICANCE

pTBI exposes patients to a higher risk for posttraumatic epilepsy for many years after initial trauma. Children who undergo operative management for TBI have a high risk for epilepsy, and this risk was highest during the first 4 years after injury.

Association between Risk Communication Format and Perceived Risk of Adverse Events after COVID-19 Vaccination among US Adults

The format used to communicate probability-verbal versus numerical descriptors-can impact risk perceptions and behaviors. This issue is salient for the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), where concerns about vaccine-related risks may reduce uptake and verbal descriptors have been widely used by public health, news organizations and on social media, to convey risk. Because the effect of risk-communication format on perceived COVID-19 vaccine-related risks remains unknown, we conducted an online randomized survey among 939 US adults. Participants were given risk information, using verbal or numerical descriptors and were asked to report their perceived risk of experiencing headache, fever, fatigue or myocarditis from COVID-19 vaccine. Associations between risk communication format and perceived risk were assessed using multivariable regression. Compared to numerical estimates, verbal descriptors were associated with higher perceived risk of headache (β = 5.0 percentage points, 95% CI = 2.0-8.1), fever (β = 27 percentage points, 95% CI = 23-30), fatigue (β = 4.9 percentage points, 95% = CI 1.8-8.0) and myocarditis (β = 4.6 percentage points, 95% CI = 2.1-7.2), as well as greater variability in risk perceptions. Social media influence was associated with differences in risk perceptions for myocarditis, but not side effects. Verbal descriptors may lead to greater, more inaccurate and variable vaccine-related risk perceptions compared to numerical descriptors.

Randomized Pilot Test of a Decision Support Tool for Acute Appendicitis: Decisional Conflict and Acceptability in a Healthy Population

To test the effect of a new decision support tool for acute appendicitis and assess its efficacy and acceptability.

Background

Mounting evidence from randomized controlled trials have shown that antibiotics can be a safe and effective treatment for appendicitis. Patients and surgeons must work together to choose the optimal treatment approach for each patient based on their own preferences and values. We developed a decision support tool to facilitate shared decision-making for appendicitis and its effect on decisional outcomes remains unknown.

Methods

We conducted an online randomized field test in at-risk individuals comparing the decision support tool to a standard infographic. Individuals were randomized 3:1 to view the decision support tool or infographic. The primary outcome was the total decisional conflict scale (DCS) score measured before and after exposure to the decision support tool. Secondary outcomes included between-group DCS scores, and between-group comparisons of the acceptability.

Results

One hundred eighty individuals were included in the study. Total DCS scores decreased significantly after viewing the decision support tool (59 [95% confidence interval (CI): 55-63] to 15 [95% CI: 12-17], P < 0.001) representing movement from a state of high to low decisional conflict. Individuals exposed to the decision support tool reported higher acceptability ratings (3.7 [95% CI: 3.6-3.8] vs 3.3 [95% CI: 3.2-3.5] out of 4) and demonstrated increased willingness to consider both treatment options.

Conclusions

These data support the further use and testing of this novel decision support tool in patients with acute appendicitis.

Unrealistic optimism about treatment risks for acute appendicitis

Unrealistic optimism is a cognitive bias that causes people to think they are at lower risk of a negative outcome than they actually are. This study identified significant unrealistic optimism towards the risks of appendicitis treatment complications.