Survival After Liver Transplantation: An International Comparison Between the United States and the United Kingdom in the Years 2008-2016

Improving risk models for patients having emergency bowel cancer surgery using linked electronic health records: a national cohort study

BACKGROUND

Life-saving emergency major resection of colorectal cancer (CRC) is a high-risk procedure. Accurate prediction of postoperative mortality for patients undergoing this procedure is essential for both healthcare performance monitoring and preoperative risk assessment. Risk-adjustment models for CRC patients often include patient and tumour characteristics, widely available in cancer registries and audits. The authors investigated to what extent inclusion of additional physiological and surgical measures, available through linkage or additional data collection, improves accuracy of risk models.

METHODS

Linked, routinely-collected data on patients undergoing emergency CRC surgery in England between December 2016 and November 2019 were used to develop a risk model for 90-day mortality. Backwards selection identified a 'selected model' of physiological and surgical measures in addition to patient and tumour characteristics. Model performance was assessed compared to a 'basic model' including only patient and tumour characteristics. Missing data was multiply imputed.

RESULTS

Eight hundred forty-six of 10 578 (8.0%) patients died within 90 days of surgery. The selected model included seven preoperative physiological and surgical measures (pulse rate, systolic blood pressure, breathlessness, sodium, urea, albumin, and predicted peritoneal soiling), in addition to the 10 patient and tumour characteristics in the basic model (calendar year of surgery, age, sex, ASA grade, TNM T stage, TNM N stage, TNM M stage, cancer site, number of comorbidities, and emergency admission). The selected model had considerably better discrimination compared to the basic model (C-statistic: 0.824 versus 0.783, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Linkage of disease-specific and treatment-specific datasets allowed the inclusion of physiological and surgical measures in a risk model alongside patient and tumour characteristics, which improves the accuracy of the prediction of the mortality risk for CRC patients having emergency surgery. This improvement will allow more accurate performance monitoring of healthcare providers and enhance clinical care planning.

Good outcomes after repeated pediatric liver retransplantations: A justified procedure even in times of organ shortage

BACKGROUND

Pediatric liver transplantations generally represent advanced surgery for selected patients. In case of acute or chronic graft failure, biliary or vessel complications, a retransplantation (reLT) can be necessary. In these situations massive adhesions, critical patient condition or lack of good vessels for anastomosis often are problematic.

METHODS

Between 2008 and 2021, 208 pediatric patients received a liver transplantation at our center. Retrospectively, all cases with at least one retransplantation were identified and stored in a database. Indication, intra- and postoperative course and overall survival (OS) were analyzed.

RESULTS

Altogether 31 patients (14.9%) received a reLT. In 22 cases only one reLT was done, 8 patients received 2 reLTs and 1 patient needed a fourth graft. Median age for primary transplantation, first, second and third reLT was 14 (range: 1-192 months), 60.5 (range: 1-215 months), 58.5 (range: 14-131 months) and 67 months, respectively. Although biliary atresia (42%) and acute liver failure (23%) represented the main indications for the primary liver transplantation, acute and chronic graft failure (1st reLT: 36%, 2nd reLT: 38%), hepatic artery thrombosis (1st reLT: 29%, 2nd reLT: 25%, 3rd reLT: 100%) and biliary complications (1st reLT: 26%, 2nd reLT: 37%) were the most frequent indications for reLT. OS was 81.8% for patients with 1 reLT, 87.5% with 2 reLTs and 100% with 3 reLTs.

CONCLUSION

Pediatric liver retransplantation is possible with a good outcome even after multiple retransplantations in specialized centers. Nevertheless, careful patient and graft selection, as well as good preoperative conditioning, are essential.

Beyond donation to organ utilization in the UK

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Optimizing deceased donor organ utilization is gaining recognition as a topical and important issue, both in the United Kingdom (UK) and globally. This review discusses pertinent issues in the field of organ utilization, with specific reference to UK data and recent developments within the UK.

RECENT FINDINGS

A multifaceted approach is likely required in order to improve organ utilization. Having a solid evidence-base upon which transplant clinicians and patients on national waiting lists can base decisions regarding organ utilization is imperative in order to bridge gaps in knowledge regarding the optimal use of each donated organ. A better understanding of the risks and benefits of the uses of higher risk organs, along with innovations such as novel machine perfusion technologies, can help clinician decision-making and may ultimately reduce the unnecessary discard of precious deceased donor organs.

SUMMARY

The issues facing the UK with regards to organ utilization are likely to be similar to those in many other developed countries. Discussions around these issues within organ donation and transplantation communities may help facilitate shared learning, lead to improvements in the usage of scarce deceased donor organs, and enable better outcomes for patients waiting for transplants.

Outcomes after liver transplantation using deceased after circulatory death donors: A comparison of outcomes in the UK and the US

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Identifying international differences in utilization and outcomes of liver transplantation (LT) after donation after circulatory death (DCD) donation provides a unique opportunity for benchmarking and population-level insight.

METHODS

Adult (≥18 years) LT data between 2008 and 2018 from the UK and US were used to assess mortality and graft failure after DCD LT. We used time-dependent Cox-regression methods to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for risk-adjusted short-term (0-90 days) and longer-term (90 days-5 years) outcomes.

RESULTS

One-thousand five-hundred-and-sixty LT receipts from the UK and 3426 from the US were included. Over the study period, the use of DCD livers increased from 15.7% to 23.9% in the UK compared to 5.1% to 7.6% in the US. In the UK, DCD donors were older (UK:51 vs. US:33 years) with longer cold ischaemia time (UK: 437 vs. US: 333 min). Recipients in the US had higher Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, higher body mass index, higher proportions of ascites, encephalopathy, diabetes and previous abdominal surgeries. No difference in the risk-adjusted short-term mortality or graft failure was observed between the countries. In the longer-term (90 days-5 years), the UK had lower mortality and graft failure (adj.mortality HR:UK: 0.63 (95% CI: 0.49-0.80); graft failure HR: UK: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.58-0.91). The cumulative incidence of retransplantation was higher in the UK (5 years: UK: 11.9% vs. 4.6%; p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

For those receiving a DCD LT, longer-term post-transplant outcomes in the UK are superior to the US, however, significant differences in recipient illness, graft quality and access to retransplantation were seen between the two countries.

Machine learning-based mortality prediction models using national liver transplantation registries are feasible but have limited utility across countries

Many countries curate national registries of liver transplant (LT) data. These registries are often used to generate predictive models; however, potential performance and transferability of these models remain unclear. We used data from 3 national registries and developed machine learning algorithm (MLA)-based models to predict 90-day post-LT mortality within and across countries. Predictive performance and external validity of each model were assessed. Prospectively collected data of adult patients (aged ≥18 years) who underwent primary LTs between January 2008 and December 2018 from the Canadian Organ Replacement Registry (Canada), National Health Service Blood and Transplantation (United Kingdom), and United Network for Organ Sharing (United States) were used to develop MLA models to predict 90-day post-LT mortality. Models were developed using each registry individually (based on variables inherent to the individual databases) and using all 3 registries combined (variables in common between the registries [harmonized]). The model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. The number of patients included was as follows: Canada, n = 1214; the United Kingdom, n = 5287; and the United States, n = 59,558. The best performing MLA-based model was ridge regression across both individual registries and harmonized data sets. Model performance diminished from individualized to the harmonized registries, especially in Canada (individualized ridge: AUROC, 0.74; range, 0.73-0.74; harmonized: AUROC, 0.68; range, 0.50-0.73) and US (individualized ridge: AUROC, 0.71; range, 0.70-0.71; harmonized: AUROC, 0.66; range, 0.66-0.66) data sets. External model performance across countries was poor overall. MLA-based models yield a fair discriminatory potential when used within individual databases. However, the external validity of these models is poor when applied across countries. Standardization of registry-based variables could facilitate the added value of MLA-based models in informing decision making in future LTs.

Disparities in the Use of Older Donation After Circulatory Death Liver Allografts in the United States Versus the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to assess the differences between the United States and the United Kingdom in the characteristics and posttransplant survival of patients who received donation after circulatory death (DCD) liver allografts from donors aged >60 y.

METHODS

Data were collected from the UK Transplant Registry and the United Network for Organ Sharing databases. Cohorts were dichotomized into donor age subgroups (donor >60 y [D >60]; donor ≤60 y [D ≤60]). Study period: January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2015.

RESULTS

1157 DCD LTs were performed in the United Kingdom versus 3394 in the United States. Only 13.8% of US DCD donors were aged >50 y, contrary to 44.3% in the United Kingdom. D >60 were 22.6% in the United Kingdom versus 2.4% in the United States. In the United Kingdom, 64.2% of D >60 clustered in 2 metropolitan centers. In the United States, there was marked inter-regional variation. A total of 78.3% of the US DCD allografts were used locally. One- and 5-y unadjusted DCD graft survival was higher in the United Kingdom versus the United States (87.3% versus 81.4%, and 78.0% versus 71.3%, respectively; P < 0.001). One- and 5-y D >60 graft survival was higher in the United Kingdom (87.3% versus 68.1%, and 77.9% versus 51.4%, United Kingdom versus United States, respectively; P < 0.001). In both groups, grafts from donors ≤30 y had the best survival. Survival was similar for donors aged 41 to 50 versus 51 to 60 in both cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the United Kingdom, older DCD LT utilization remained low in the United States, with worse D >60 survival. Nonetheless, present data indicate similar survivals for older donors aged ≤60, supporting an extension to the current US DCD age cutoff.