A general method for multiscale modelling of vector-borne disease systems

Understanding the Influence of Host Radiation on Symbiont Speciation through Parasites of Species Flocks

(Adaptive) radiations have attracted evolutionary biologists for a long time as ideal model systems to study patterns and processes of often rapid speciation. However, whereas a wealth of (sometimes already genome-scale) data is available for host radiations, very few studies target the patterns of diversification in their symbionts, even though they would be excellent models to study symbiont speciation. Our review summarizes what little is known about general patterns of symbiont diversification in often iconic adaptive host radiations and to what extent these patterns are dependent on the evolutionary trajectories of their hosts. We identify research gaps that need to be addressed in the future and discuss the potential of approaches not yet typically used in these study systems, such as epidemiological disease modeling and new omics technologies, for significantly advancing our understanding of these complex eco-evolutionary relationships.

Repellent activity of the non-host semiochemical (E)-2-octenal against Amblyomma sculptum and Amblyomma dubitatum ticks under field conditions

Amblyomma ticks pose a significant public health threat due to their potential to transmit pathogens associated with rickettsial diseases. (E)-2-octenal, a compound found in donkeys (Equus asinus), exhibits strong repellent properties against Amblyomma sculptum nymphs under laboratory conditions. This study assessed the effectiveness of the (E)-2-octenal in wearable slow-release devices for personal human protection against Amblyomma ticks under natural conditions. Slow-release devices treated with (E)-2-octenal and untreated controls were prepared and tested on two volunteers walking through a tick-infested area in Goiania, Brazil. The experiment was conducted twice daily for three series of 10 days, with each volunteer wearing two devices attached to each leg, one on the ankle and one just above the thigh. Volunteers with control and treated devices exchanged them between rounds. Also, the daily release rate of (E)-2-octenal from the slow-release devices was determined in the laboratory, increasing significantly from 0.77 ± 0.14 µg/day on the first day to 9.93 ± 1.92 µg/day on the 4th day and remaining constant until the 16th day. A total of 5409 ticks were collected from both volunteers. Treated devices resulted in recovering fewer ticks (n = 1,666; 31%) compared to untreated devices (control: n = 3,743; 69%). (E)-2-octenal effectively repelled Amblyomma spp. larvae, A. sculptum adults, and exhibited pronounced repellency against A. dubitatum nymphs and adults. These findings suggest the potential of (E)-2-octenal delivered by wearable slow-release devices as a green-based repellent. Further improvements, however, are necessary to provide better protection for humans against A. sculptum and A. dubitatum in field conditions.

Application of the replication-transmission relativity theory in the development of multiscale models of infectious disease dynamics

Despite the existence of a powerful theoretical foundation for the development of multiscale models of infectious disease dynamics in the form of the replication-transmission relativity theory, the majority of current modelling studies focus more on single-scale modelling. The explicit aim of this study is to change the current predominantly single-scale modelling landscape in the design of planning frameworks for the control, elimination and even eradication of infectious disease systems through the exploitation of multiscale modelling methods based on the application of the replication-transmission relativity theory. We first present a structured roadmap for the development of multiscale models of infectious disease systems. The roadmap is tested on hookworm infection. The testing of the feasibility of the roadmap established a fundamental result which can be generalized to confirm that the complexity of an infectious disease system is encapsulated with a level of organization spanning a microscale and a macroscale.

Mathematical methods for scaling from within-host to population-scale in infectious disease systems

Mathematical modellers model infectious disease dynamics at different scales. Within-host models represent the spread of pathogens inside an individual, whilst between-host models track transmission between individuals. However, pathogen dynamics at one scale affect those at another. This has led to the development of multiscale models that connect within-host and between-host dynamics. In this article, we systematically review the literature on multiscale infectious disease modelling according to PRISMA guidelines, dividing previously published models into five categories governing their methodological approaches (Garira (2017)), explaining their benefits and limitations. We provide a primer on developing multiscale models of infectious diseases.

A Multiscale Geospatial Dataset and an Interactive Visualization Dashboard for Computational Epidemiology and Open Scientific Research

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continued to strike as a highly infectious and fast-spreading disease in 2020 and 2021. As the research community actively responded to this pandemic, we saw the release of many COVID-19-related datasets and visualization dashboards. However, existing resources are insufficient to support multiscale and multifaceted modeling or simulation, which is suggested to be important by the computational epidemiology literature. This work presents a curated multiscale geospatial dataset with an interactive visualization dashboard under the context of COVID-19. This open dataset will allow researchers to conduct numerous projects or analyses relating to COVID-19 or simply geospatial-related scientific studies. The interactive visualization platform enables users to visualize the spread of the disease at different scales (e.g., country level to individual neighborhoods), and allows users to interact with the policies enforced at these scales (e.g., the closure of borders and lockdowns) to observe their impacts on the epidemiology.

An Embedded Multiscale Modelling to Guide Control and Elimination of Paratuberculosis in Ruminants

In recent years, multiscale modelling approach has begun to receive an overwhelming appreciation as an appropriate technique to characterize the complexity of infectious disease systems. In this study, we develop an embedded multiscale model of paratuberculosis in ruminants at host level that integrates the within-host scale and the between-host. A key feature of embedded multiscale models developed at host level of organization of an infectious disease system is that the within-host scale and the between-host scale influence each other in a reciprocal (i.e., both) way through superinfection, that is, through repeated infection before the host recovers from the initial infectious episode. This key feature is demonstrated in this study through a multiscale model of paratuberculosis in ruminants. The results of this study, through numerical analysis of the multiscale model, show that superinfection influences the dynamics of paratuberculosis only at the start of the infection, while the MAP bacteria replication continuously influences paratuberculosis dynamics throughout the infection until the host recovers from the initial infectious episode. This is largely because the replication of MAP bacteria at the within-host scale sustains the dynamics of paratuberculosis at this scale domain. We further use the embedded multiscale model developed in this study to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of paratuberculosis health interventions that influence the disease dynamics at different scales from efficacy data.

The research and development process for multiscale models of infectious disease systems

Multiscale modelling of infectious disease systems falls within the domain of complexity science—the study of complex systems. However, what should be made clear is that current progress in multiscale modelling of infectious disease dynamics is still as yet insufficient to present it as a mature sub-discipline of complexity science. In this article we present a methodology for development of multiscale models of infectious disease systems. This methodology is a set of partially ordered research and development activities that result in multiscale models of infectious disease systems built from different scientific approaches. Therefore, the conclusive result of this article is a methodology to design multiscale models of infectious diseases. Although this research and development process for multiscale models cannot be claimed to be unique and final, it constitutes a good starting point, which may be found useful as a basis for further refinement in the discourse for multiscale modelling of infectious disease dynamics.

Complex systems such as infectious disease systems are inherently multilevel and multiscale systems. The study of such complex systems is called complexity science. In this article we present a methodology to design multiscale models of infectious disease systems from a complex systems perspective. Within this perspective we define complexity science as the study of the interconnected relationships of the levels and scales of organization of a complex system. We therefore, define the degree of complexity of a complex system as the number of levels and scales of organization of the complex system needed to describe it. In this work we first present a common multiscale vision of the multilevel and multiscale structure of infectious disease systems as complex systems in which the levels and scales of organization of an infectious disease system interact through different self-sustained multiscale cycles/loops (primary multiscale loops, or secondary multiscale loops, or tertiary multiscale loops) formed at different levels of organization of an infectious disease system due to ongoing reciprocal influence between the microscale and the macroscale. Guided by this multiscale vision, we propose a four-stage research and development process that result in multiscale models of infectious disease systems built from different scientific approaches.

Multi-scale dynamics of infectious diseases

To address the challenge of multiscale dynamics of infectious diseases, the Mathematical Biosciences Institute organized a workshop at The Ohio State University to bring together scientists from a variety of disciplines to share expertise gained through looking at infectious diseases across different scales. The researchers at the workshop, held in April 2018, were specifically looking at three model systems: foot-and-mouth disease, vector-borne diseases and enteric diseases. Although every multiscale model must be necessarily derived from a multiscale system, not every multiscale system has to lead to multiscale models. These three model systems seem to have produced a variety of both multiscale and integrated single-scale mechanistic models that have developed their own strengths and particular challenges. Here, we present papers from some of the workshop participants to show the breadth of the field.