Exact, time-independent estimation of clone size distributions in normal and mutated cells

SURROGATE SELECTION OVERSAMPLES EXPANDED T CELL CLONOTYPES

Inference from immunological data on cells in the adaptive immune system may benefit from modeling specifications that describe variation in the sizes of various clonal sub-populations. We develop one such specification in order to quantify the effects of surrogate selection assays, which we confirm may lead to an enrichment for amplified, potentially disease-relevant T cell clones. Our specification couples within-clonotype birth-death processes with an exchangeable model across clonotypes. Beyond enrichment questions about the surrogate selection design, our framework enables a study of sampling properties of elementary sample diversity statistics; it also points to new statistics that may usefully measure the burden of somatic genomic alterations associated with clonal expansion. We examine statistical properties of immunological samples governed by the coupled model specification, and we illustrate calculations in surrogate selection studies of melanoma and in single-cell genomic studies of T cell repertoires.

A Hierarchical Kinetic Theory of Birth, Death and Fission in Age-Structured Interacting Populations

We develop mathematical models describing the evolution of stochastic age-structured populations. After reviewing existing approaches, we formulate a complete kinetic framework for age-structured interacting populations undergoing birth, death and fission processes in spatially dependent environments. We define the full probability density for the population-size age chart and find results under specific conditions. Connections with more classical models are also explicitly derived. In particular, we show that factorial moments for non-interacting processes are described by a natural generalization of the McKendrick-von Foerster equation, which describes mean-field deterministic behavior. Our approach utilizes mixed-type, multidimensional probability distributions similar to those employed in the study of gas kinetics and with terms that satisfy BBGKY-like equation hierarchies.

Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution.

Mechanisms of blood homeostasis: lineage tracking and a neutral model of cell populations in rhesus macaques

Background

How a potentially diverse population of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) differentiates and proliferates to supply more than 10¹¹ mature blood cells every day in humans remains a key biological question. We investigated this process by quantitatively analyzing the clonal structure of peripheral blood that is generated by a population of transplanted lentivirus-marked HSCs in myeloablated rhesus macaques. Each transplanted HSC generates a clonal lineage of cells in the peripheral blood that is then detected and quantified through deep sequencing of the viral vector integration sites (VIS) common within each lineage. This approach allowed us to observe, over a period of 4-12 years, hundreds of distinct clonal lineages.

Results

While the distinct clone sizes varied by three orders of magnitude, we found that collectively, they form a steady-state clone size-distribution with a distinctive shape. Steady-state solutions of our model show that the predicted clone size-distribution is sensitive to only two combinations of parameters. By fitting the measured clone size-distributions to our mechanistic model, we estimate both the effective HSC differentiation rate and the number of active HSCs.

Conclusions

Our concise mathematical model shows how slow HSC differentiation followed by fast progenitor growth can be responsible for the observed broad clone size-distribution. Although all cells are assumed to be statistically identical, analogous to a neutral theory for the different clone lineages, our mathematical approach captures the intrinsic variability in the times to HSC differentiation after transplantation.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12915-015-0191-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Fixation times in differentiation and evolution in the presence of bottlenecks, deserts, and oases

Cellular differentiation and evolution are stochastic processes that can involve multiple types (or states) of particles moving on a complex, high-dimensional state-space or "fitness" landscape. Cells of each specific type can thus be quantified by their population at a corresponding node within a network of states. Their dynamics across the state-space network involve genotypic or phenotypic transitions that can occur upon cell division, such as during symmetric or asymmetric cell differentiation, or upon spontaneous mutation. Here, we use a general multi-type branching processes to study first passage time statistics for a single cell to appear in a specific state. Our approach readily allows for nonexponentially distributed waiting times between transitions, reflecting, e.g., the cell cycle. For simplicity, we restrict most of our detailed analysis to exponentially distributed waiting times (Poisson processes). We present results for a sequential evolutionary process in which L successive transitions propel a population from a "wild-type" state to a given "terminally differentiated," "resistant," or "cancerous" state. Analytic and numeric results are also found for first passage times across an evolutionary chain containing a node with increased death or proliferation rate, representing a desert/bottleneck or an oasis. Processes involving cell proliferation are shown to be "nonlinear" (even though mean-field equations for the expected particle numbers are linear) resulting in first passage time statistics that depend on the position of the bottleneck or oasis. Our results highlight the sensitivity of stochastic measures to cell division fate and quantify the limitations of using certain approximations (such as the fixed-population and mean-field assumptions) in evaluating fixation times.