Numerical algebraic geometry for model selection and its application to the life sciences

Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Unrooted 3-Leaf Trees: An Analytic Solution for the CFN Model

Maximum likelihood estimation is among the most widely-used methods for inferring phylogenetic trees from sequence data. This paper solves the problem of computing solutions to the maximum likelihood problem for 3-leaf trees under the 2-state symmetric mutation model (CFN model). Our main result is a closed-form solution to the maximum likelihood problem for unrooted 3-leaf trees, given generic data; this result characterizes all of the ways that a maximum likelihood estimate can fail to exist for generic data and provides theoretical validation for predictions made in Parks and Goldman (Syst Biol 63(5):798-811, 2014). Our proof makes use of both classical tools for studying group-based phylogenetic models such as Hadamard conjugation and reparameterization in terms of Fourier coordinates, as well as more recent results concerning the semi-algebraic constraints of the CFN model. To be able to put these into practice, we also give a complete characterization to test genericity.

HOMOTOPY CONTINUATION FOR THE SPECTRA OF PERSISTENT LAPLACIANS

The p-persistent q-combinatorial Laplacian defined for a pair of simplicial complexes is a generalization of the q-combinatorial Laplacian. Given a filtration, the spectra of persistent combinatorial Laplacians not only recover the persistent Betti numbers of persistent homology but also provide extra multiscale geometrical information of the data. Paired with machine learning algorithms, the persistent Laplacian has many potential applications in data science. Seeking different ways to find the spectrum of an operator is an active research topic, becoming interesting when ideas are originated from multiple fields. In this work, we explore an alternative approach for the spectrum of persistent Laplacians. As the eigenvalues of a persistent Laplacian matrix are the roots of its characteristic polynomial, one may attempt to find the roots of the characteristic polynomial by homotopy continuation, and thus resolving the spectrum of the corresponding persistent Laplacian. We consider a set of simple polytopes and small molecules to prove the principle that algebraic topology, combinatorial graph, and algebraic geometry can be integrated to understand the shape of data.

IDENTIFYING THE NUMBER OF COMPONENTS IN GAUSSIAN MIXTURE MODELS USING NUMERICAL ALGEBRAIC GEOMETRY

Using Gaussian mixture models for clustering is a statistically mature method for clustering in data science with numerous successful applications in science and engineering. The parameters for a Gaussian mixture model are typically estimated from training data using the iterative expectation-maximization algorithm, which requires the number of Gaussian components a priori. In this study, we propose two algorithms rooted in numerical algebraic geometry, namely an area-based algorithm and a local maxima algorithm, to identify the optimal number of components. The area-based algorithm transforms several Gaussian mixture models with varying number of components into sets of equivalent polynomial regression splines. Next, it uses homotopy continuation methods for evaluating the resulting splines to identify the number of components that results in the best fit. The local maxima algorithm forms a set of polynomials by fitting a smoothing spline to a kernel density estimate of the data. Next, it uses numerical algebraic geometry to solve the system of the first derivatives for finding the local maxima of the resulting smoothing spline, which estimates the number of mixture components. The local maxima algorithm also identifies the location of the centers of Gaussian components. Using a real-world case study in automotive manufacturing and multiple simulations, we compare the performance of the proposed algorithms with that of Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC), which are popular methods in the literature. We show the proposed algorithms are more robust than AIC and BIC when the Gaussian assumption is violated.

Inferring reaction network structure from single-cell, multiplex data, using toric systems theory

The goal of many single-cell studies on eukaryotic cells is to gain insight into the biochemical reactions that control cell fate and state. In this paper we introduce the concept of Effective Stoichiometric Spaces (ESS) to guide the reconstruction of biochemical networks from multiplexed, fixed time-point, single-cell data. In contrast to methods based solely on statistical models of data, the ESS method leverages the power of the geometric theory of toric varieties to begin unraveling the structure of chemical reaction networks (CRN). This application of toric theory enables a data-driven mapping of covariance relationships in single-cell measurements into stoichiometric information, one in which each cell subpopulation has its associated ESS interpreted in terms of CRN theory. In the development of ESS we reframe certain aspects of the theory of CRN to better match data analysis. As an application of our approach we process cytomery- and image-based single-cell datasets and identify differences in cells treated with kinase inhibitors. Our approach is directly applicable to data acquired using readily accessible experimental methods such as Fluorescence Activated Cell Sorting (FACS) and multiplex immunofluorescence.

We introduce a new notion, which we call the effective stoichiometric space (ESS), that elucidates network structure from the covariances of single-cell multiplex data. The ESS approach differs from methods that are based on purely statistical models of data: it allows a completely new and data-driven translation of the theory of toric varieties in geometry and specifically their role in chemical reaction networks (CRN). In the process, we reframe certain aspects of the theory of CRN. As illustrations of our approach, we find stoichiometry in different single-cell datasets, and pinpoint dose-dependence of network perturbations in drug-treated cells.

Dynamics of Posttranslational Modification Systems: Recent Progress and Future Directions

Posttranslational modification of proteins is important for signal transduction, and hence significant effort has gone toward understanding how posttranslational modification networks process information. This involves, on the theory side, analyzing the dynamical systems arising from such networks. Which networks are, for instance, bistable? Which networks admit sustained oscillations? Which parameter values enable such behaviors? In this Biophysical Perspective, we highlight recent progress in this area and point out some important future directions. Along the way, we summarize several techniques for analyzing general networks, such as eliminating variables to obtain steady-state parameterizations, and harnessing results on how incorporating intermediates affects dynamics.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Symmetric Group-Based Models via Numerical Algebraic Geometry

Phylogenetic models admit polynomial parametrization maps in terms of the root distribution and transition probabilities along the edges of the phylogenetic tree. For symmetric continuous-time group-based models, Matsen studied the polynomial inequalities that characterize the joint probabilities in the image of these parametrizations (Matsen in IEEE/ACM Trans Comput Biol Bioinform 6:89–95, 2009). We employ this description for maximum likelihood estimation via numerical algebraic geometry. In particular, we explore an example where the maximum likelihood estimate does not exist, which would be difficult to discover without using algebraic methods.