Is Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) going to become homodynamic in Southern Europe in the next decades due to climate change?

Ecological niche modelling of Culicoides imicola and future range shifts under climate change scenarios in Italy

Culicoides imicola is the main vector of viral diseases of livestock in Europe such as bluetongue (BT), African horse sickness and epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Climatic factors are the main drivers of C. imicola occurrence and its distribution might be subject to rapid shifts due to climate change. Entomological data, collected during BT surveillance, and climatic/environmental variables were used to analyse ecological niche and to model C. imicola distribution and possible future range shifts in Italy. An ensemble technique was used to weigh the performance of machine learning, linear and profile methods. Updated future climate projections from the latest phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to generate future distributions for the next three 20-year periods, according to combinations of general circulation models and shared socioeconomic pathways and considering different climate change scenarios. Results indicated the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO 6) and precipitation of the driest-warmest months (BIO 14) as the main limiting climatic factors. Indeed, BIO 6 and BIO 14 reported the two highest values of variable importance, respectively, 9.16% (confidence interval [CI] = 7.99%-10.32%), and 2.01% (CI = 1.57%-2.44%). Under the worst-case scenario of climate change, C. imicola range is expected to expand northward and shift away from the coasts of central Italy, while in some areas of southern Italy, environmental suitability will decrease. Our results provide predictions of C. imicola distribution according to the most up-to-date future climate projections and should be of great use to surveillance management at regional and national scales.

Invasive mosquito vectors in Europe: From bioecology to surveillance and management

Invasive mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) play a key role in the spread of a number of mosquito-borne diseases worldwide. Anthropogenic changes play a significant role in affecting their distribution. Invasive mosquitoes usually take advantage from biotic homogenization and biodiversity reduction, therefore expanding in their distribution range and abundance. In Europe, climate warming and increasing urbanization are boosting the spread of several mosquito species of high public health importance. The present article contains a literature review focused on the biology and ecology of Aedes albopictus, Ae. aegypti, Ae. japonicus japonicus, Ae. koreicus, Ae. atropalpus and Ae. triseriatus, outlining their distribution and public health relevance in Europe. Bioecology insights were tightly connected with vector surveillance and control programs targeting these species. In the final section, a research agenda aiming for the effective and sustainable monitoring and control of invasive mosquitoes in the framework of Integrated Vector Management and One Health is presented. The WHO Vector Control Advisory Group recommends priority should be given to vector control tools with proven epidemiological impact.