Phenology of two interdependent traits in migratory birds in response to climate change

Early Breeding Conditions Followed by Reduced Breeding Success Despite Timely Arrival in an Alpine Migratory Songbird

Timing reproduction to coincide with optimal environmental conditions is key for many organisms living in seasonal habitats. Advance in the onset of spring is a particular challenge to migratory birds that must time their arrival without knowing the conditions on the breeding grounds. This is amplified at high elevations where resource availability, which is linked to snowmelt and vegetation development, shows much annual variation. With the aim of exploring the effects of variability in the onset of local resource availability on reproduction, we compared key life history events in an Alpine population of the Northern Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) between years of contrasting timing of snowmelt. Based on remote sensed images, we identified 2020 as an exceptionally early snowmelt and green-up year compared to the preceding year and the long-term average. Individuals tracked with light-level geolocators arrived well before the snowmelt in 2020 and clutch initiation dates across the population were earlier in 2020 compared to 2019. However, observations from a citizen science database and nest monitoring data showed that the arrival-breeding interval was shorter in 2020, thus the advance in timing lagged behind the environmental conditions. While hatching success was similar in both years, fledging success was significantly reduced in 2020. A trophic mismatch in early 2020 could be a possible explanation for the reduced reproductive success, but alternative explanations cannot be excluded. Our results show that, despite the timely arrival at the breeding grounds and a contraction of the arrival-breeding interval, Wheatears were not able to advance breeding activities in synchrony with environmental conditions in 2020. Earlier reproductive seasons are expected to become more frequent in the future. We show that the negative effects of changing seasons in Alpine migratory birds might be similar to birds breeding at high latitudes, despite their shorter migratory distance.

Animal migrations and parasitism: reciprocal effects within a unified framework

Migrations, i.e. the recurring, roundtrip movement of animals between distant and distinct habitats, occur among diverse metazoan taxa. Although traditionally linked to avoidance of food shortages, predators or harsh abiotic conditions, there is increasing evidence that parasites may have played a role in the evolution of migration. On the one hand, selective pressures from parasites can favour migratory strategies that allow either avoidance of infections or recovery from them. On the other hand, infected animals incur physiological costs that may limit their migratory abilities, affecting their speed, the timing of their departure or arrival, and/or their condition upon reaching their destination. During migration, reduced immunocompetence as well as exposure to different external conditions and parasite infective stages can influence infection dynamics. Here, we first explore whether parasites represent extra costs for their hosts during migration. We then review how infection dynamics and infection risk are affected by host migration, thereby considering parasites as both causes and consequences of migration. We also evaluate the comparative evidence testing the hypothesis that migratory species harbour a richer parasite fauna than their closest free-living relatives, finding general support for the hypothesis. Then we consider the implications of host migratory behaviour for parasite ecology and evolution, which have received much less attention. Parasites of migratory hosts may achieve much greater spatial dispersal than those of non-migratory hosts, expanding their geographical range, and providing more opportunities for host-switching. Exploiting migratory hosts also exerts pressures on the parasite to adapt its phenology and life-cycle duration, including the timing of major developmental, reproduction and transmission events. Natural selection may even favour parasites that manipulate their host's migratory strategy in ways that can enhance parasite transmission. Finally, we propose a simple integrated framework based on eco-evolutionary feedbacks to consider the reciprocal selection pressures acting on migratory hosts and their parasites. Host migratory strategies and parasite traits evolve in tandem, each acting on the other along two-way causal paths and feedback loops. Their likely adjustments to predicted climate change will be understood best from this coevolutionary perspective.

Evolution of Reproduction Periods in Seasonal Environments

AbstractMany species are subject to seasonal cycles in resource availability, affecting the timing of their reproduction. Using a stage-structured consumer-resource model in which juvenile development and maturation are resource dependent, we study how a species' reproductive schedule evolves, dependent on the seasonality of its resource. We find three qualitatively different reproduction modes. First, continuous income breeding (with adults reproducing throughout the year) evolves in the absence of significant seasonality. Second, seasonal income breeding (with adults reproducing unless they are starving) evolves when resource availability is sufficiently seasonal and juveniles are more efficient resource foragers. Third, seasonal capital breeding (with adults reproducing partly through the use of energy reserves) evolves when resource availability is sufficiently seasonal and adults are more efficient resource foragers. Such capital breeders start reproduction already while their offspring are still experiencing starvation. Changes in seasonality lead to continuous transitions between continuous and seasonal income breeding, but the change between income and capital breeding involves a hysteresis pattern, such that a population's evolutionarily stable reproduction pattern depends on its initial one. Taken together, our findings show how adaptation to seasonal environments can result in a rich array of outcomes, exhibiting seasonal or continuous reproduction with or without energy reserves.

Factors influencing plasticity in the arrival-breeding interval in a migratory species reacting to climate change

Climate change is profoundly affecting the phenology of many species. In migratory birds, there is evidence for advances in their arrival time at the breeding ground and their timing of breeding, yet empirical studies examining the interdependence between arrival and breeding time are lacking. Hence, evidence is scarce regarding how breeding time may be adjusted via the arrival-breeding interval to help local populations adapt to local conditions or climate change. We used long-term data from an intensively monitored population of the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) to examine the factors related to the length of 734 separate arrival-to-breeding events from 549 individual females. From 1993 to 2017, the mean arrival and egg-laying dates advanced by approximately the same amount (~5-6 days), with considerable between-individual variation in the arrival-breeding interval. The arrival-breeding interval was shorter for: (a) individuals that arrived later in the season compared to early-arriving birds, (b) for experienced females compared to first-year breeders, (c) as spring progressed, and (d) in later years compared to earlier ones. The influence of these factors was much larger for birds arriving earlier in the season compared to later arriving birds, with most effects on variation in the arrival-breeding interval being absent in late-arriving birds. Thus, in this population it appears that the timing of breeding is not constrained by arrival for early- to midarriving birds, but instead is dependent on local conditions after arrival. For late-arriving birds, however, the timing of breeding appears to be influenced by arrival constraints. Hence, impacts of climate change on arrival dates and local conditions are expected to vary for different parts of the population, with potential negative impacts associated with these factors likely to differ for early- versus late-arriving birds.

Evolutionary and demographic consequences of phenological mismatches

Climate change has often led to unequal shifts in the seasonal timing (phenology) of interacting species, such as consumers and their resource, leading to phenological 'mismatches'. Mismatches occur when the time at which a consumer species's demands for a resource are high does not match with the period when this resource is abundant. Here, we review the evolutionary and population-level consequences of such mismatches and how these depend on other ecological factors, such as additional drivers of selection and density-dependent recruitment. This review puts the research on phenological mismatches into a conceptual framework, applies this framework beyond consumer-resource interactions and illustrates this framework using examples drawn from the vast body of literature on mismatches. Finally, we point out priority questions for research on this key impact of climate change.

Understanding Evolutionary Impacts of Seasonality: An Introduction to the Symposium

Seasonality is a critically important aspect of environmental variability, and strongly shapes all aspects of life for organisms living in highly seasonal environments. Seasonality has played a key role in generating biodiversity, and has driven the evolution of extreme physiological adaptations and behaviors such as migration and hibernation. Fluctuating selection pressures on survival and fecundity between summer and winter provide a complex selective landscape, which can be met by a combination of three outcomes of adaptive evolution: genetic polymorphism, phenotypic plasticity, and bet-hedging. Here, we have identified four important research questions with the goal of advancing our understanding of evolutionary impacts of seasonality. First, we ask how characteristics of environments and species will determine which adaptive response occurs. Relevant characteristics include costs and limits of plasticity, predictability, and reliability of cues, and grain of environmental variation relative to generation time. A second important question is how phenological shifts will amplify or ameliorate selection on physiological hardiness. Shifts in phenology can preserve the thermal niche despite shifts in climate, but may fail to completely conserve the niche or may even expose life stages to conditions that cause mortality. Considering distinct environmental sensitivities of life history stages will be key to refining models that forecast susceptibility to climate change. Third, we must identify critical physiological phenotypes that underlie seasonal adaptation and work toward understanding the genetic architectures of these responses. These architectures are key for predicting evolutionary responses. Pleiotropic genes that regulate multiple responses to changing seasons may facilitate coordination among functionally related traits, or conversely may constrain the expression of optimal phenotypes. Finally, we must advance our understanding of how changes in seasonal fluctuations are impacting ecological interaction networks. We should move beyond simple dyadic interactions, such as predator prey dynamics, and understand how these interactions scale up to affect ecological interaction networks. As global climate change alters many aspects of seasonal variability, including extreme events and changes in mean conditions, organisms must respond appropriately or go extinct. The outcome of adaptation to seasonality will determine responses to climate change.

An optimal stopping approach for onset of fish migration

Comprehending life history of migratory fish, onset of migration in particular, is a key biological and ecological research topic that still has not been clarified. In this paper, we propose a simple mathematical model for the onset of fish migration in the context of a stochastic optimal stopping theory, which is a new attempt to our knowledge. Finding the criteria of the onset of migration reduces to solving a variational inequality of a degenerate elliptic type. As a first step of the new mathematical modeling, mathematical and numerical analyses with particular emphasis on whether the model is consistent with the past observation results of fish migration are examined, demonstrating reasonable agreement between the theory and observation results. The present mathematical model thus potentially serves as a simple basis for analyzing onset of fish migration.