Genetic variation during range expansion: effects of habitat novelty and hybridization

Seed predation-induced Allee effects, seed dispersal and masting jointly drive the diversity of seed sources during population expansion

The environmental factors affecting plant reproduction and effective dispersal, in particular biotic interactions, have a strong influence on plant expansion dynamics, but their demographic and genetic consequences remain an understudied body of theory. Here, we use a mathematical model in a one-dimensional space and on a single reproductive period to describe the joint effects of predispersal seed insect predators foraging strategy and plant reproduction strategy (masting) on the spatio-temporal dynamics of seed sources diversity in the colonisation front of expanding plant populations. We show that certain foraging strategies can result in a higher seed predation rate at the colonisation front compared to the core of the population, leading to an Allee effect. This effect promotes the contribution of seed sources from the core to the colonisation front, with long-distance dispersal further increasing this contribution. As a consequence, our study reveals a novel impact of the predispersal seed predation-induced Allee effect, which mitigates the erosion of diversity in expanding populations. We use rearrangement inequalities to show that masting has a buffering role: it mitigates this seed predation-induced Allee effect. This study shows that predispersal seed predation, plant reproductive strategies and seed dispersal patterns can be intermingled drivers of the diversity of seed sources in expanding plant populations, and opens new perspectives concerning the analysis of more complex models such as integro-difference or reaction-diffusion equations.

Gene flow drives genomic diversity in Asian Pikas distributed along the core and range-edge habitats in the Himalayas

Studying the genetic variation among different species distributed across their core and range-edge habitats can provide valuable insights into how genetic variation changes across the species' distribution range. This information can be important for understanding local adaptation, as well as for conservation and management efforts. In this study, we have carried out genomic characterization of six species of Asian Pikas distributed along their core and range-edge habitats in the Himalayas. We utilized a population genomics approach using ~28,000 genome-wide SNP markers obtained from restriction-site associated DNA sequencing. We identified low nucleotide diversity and high inbreeding coefficients in all six species across their core and range-edge habitats. We also identified evidence of gene flow among genetically diverse species. Our results provide evidence of reduced genetic diversity in Asian pikas distributed across the Himalayas and the neighboring regions and indicate that recurrent gene flow is possibly a key mechanism for maintaining genetic diversity and adaptive potential in these pikas. However, full-scale genomics studies that utilize whole-genome sequencing approaches will be needed to quantify the direction and timing of gene flow and functional changes associated with introgressed regions in the genome. Our results represent an important step toward understanding the patterns and consequences of gene flow in species, sampled at the least studied, yet climatically vulnerable part of their habitat that can be further used to inform conservation strategies that promote connectivity and gene flow between populations.

Genomic dynamics of brown trout populations released to a novel environment

Population translocations occur for a variety of reasons, from displacement due to climate change to human‐induced transfers. Such actions have adverse effects on genetic variation and understanding their microevolutionary consequences requires monitoring. Here, we return to an experimental release of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in order to monitor the genomic effects of population translocations. In 1979, fish from each of two genetically (F_ST = 0.16) and ecologically separate populations were simultaneously released, at one point in time, to a lake system previously void of brown trout. Here, whole‐genome sequencing of pooled DNA (Pool‐seq) is used to characterize diversity within and divergence between the introduced populations and fish inhabiting two lakes downstream of the release sites, sampled 30 years later (c. 5 generations). Present results suggest that while extensive hybridization has occurred, the two introduced populations are unequally represented in the lakes downstream of the release sites. One population, which is ecologically resident in its original habitat, mainly contributes to the lake closest to the release site. The other population, migratory in its natal habitat, is genetically more represented in the lake further downstream. Genomic regions putatively under directional selection in the new habitat are identified, where allele frequencies in both established populations are more similar to the introduced population stemming from a resident population than the migratory one. Results suggest that the microevolutionary consequences of population translocations, for example, hybridization and adaptation, can be rapid and that Pool‐seq can be used as an initial tool to monitor genome‐wide effects.

Extensive Sympatry and Frequent Hybridization of Ecologically Divergent Aquatic Plants on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Hybridization has fascinated biologists in recent centuries for its evolutionary importance, especially in plants. Hybrid zones are commonly located in regions across environmental gradients due to more opportunities to contact and ecological heterogeneity. For aquatic taxa, intrazonal character makes broad overlapping regions in intermediate environments between related species. However, we have limited information on the hybridization pattern of aquatic taxa in alpines, especially submerged macrophytes. In this study, we aimed to test the hypotheses that niche overlap and hybridization might be extensive in related aquatic plants across an altitudinal gradient. We evaluated the niche overlap in three related species pairs on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and assessed the spatial pattern of hybrid populations. Obvious niche overlap and common hybridization were revealed in all three pairs of related aquatic plants. The plateau edge and river basins were broad areas for the sympatry of divergent taxa, where a large proportion of hybrid populations occurred. Hybrids are also discretely distributed in diverse habitats on the plateau. Differences in the extent of niche overlap, genetic incompatibility and phylogeographic history might lead to variation differences in hybridization patterns among the three species pairs. Our results suggested that plateau areas are a hotspot for ecologically divergent aquatic species to contact and mate and implied that hybridization may be important for the freshwater biodiversity of highlands.

Climate change and niche unfilling tend to favor range expansion of Moina macrocopa Straus 1820, a potentially invasive cladoceran in temporary waters

Non-native species' introductions have increased in the last decades primarily due to anthropogenic causes such as climate change and globalization of trade. Moina macrocopa, a stress-tolerant cladoceran widely used in bioassays and aquaculture, is spreading in temporary and semi-temporary natural ponds outside its natural range. Here, we characterize the variations in the climatic niche of M. macrocopa during its invasions outside the native Palearctic range following introduction into the American continent. Specifically, we examined to what extent the climatic responses of this species have diverged from those characteristics for its native range. We also made predictions for its potential distribution under current and future scenarios. We found that the environmental space occupied by this species in its native and introduced distribution areas shares more characteristics than randomly expected. However, the introduced niche has a high degree of unfilling when displacing its original space towards the extension to drier and hotter conditions. Accordingly, M. macrocopa can invade new areas where it has not yet been recorded in response to warming temperatures and decreasing winter precipitation. In particular, temporary ponds are more vulnerable environments where climatic and environmental stresses may also lower biotic resistance.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10750-022-04835-7.

Different Roles of Introgression on the Demographic Change in Two Snakebark Maples, Acer caudatifolium and A. morrisonense, with Contrasted Postglacial Expansion Routes

Hybridization frequently occurs in plant species. With repeated backcross, the introgression may influence evolutionary trajectories through the entry of foreign genes. However, the genetic admixture via hybridization events is often confused with the ancestral polymorphism, especially in closely related species that have experienced similar evolutionary events. In Taiwan, two independent-originated endemic snakebark maples have contrasted postglacial range expansion routes: northward and upward expansion in Acer caudatifolium and downward expansion in A. morrisonense. The range expansion causes the current parapatric distribution, increasing the possibility of introgression. This study elucidates how their genetic variation reflects introgression and historical demography. With 17 EST-SSR markers among the intensely sampled 657 individuals, we confirmed that the genetic admixture between species mainly was attributed to recent introgression instead of common ancestral polymorphism. The secondary contact scenario inferred by approximate Bayesian computation suggested that A. morrisonense received more genetic variations from A. caudatifolium. Introgression occurred in colonized Taiwan around the early Last Glacial Period. Furthermore, the demography of A. caudatifolium was more severely affected by introgression than A. morrisonense, especially in the wavefront populations with high altitude range expansion, implying an altitude-related adaptive introgression. In contrast, A. morrisonense exhibited ubiquitous introgression independent of postglacial expansion, suggesting that introgression in A. morrisonense was neutral. In terms of different genetic consequences, introgression had different demographic impacts on species with different altitude expansion directions even under the same climate-change conditions within an island.

Population genomics of free-ranging Great Plains white-tailed and mule deer reflects a long history of interspecific hybridization

Hybridization is a natural process at species-range boundaries that may variably promote the speciation process or break down species barriers but minimally will influence management outcomes of distinct populations. White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) have broad and overlapping distributions in North America and a recognized capacity for interspecific hybridization. In response to contemporary environmental change to any of one or multiple still-unknown factors, mule deer range is contracting westward accompanied by a westward expansion of white-tailed deer, leading to increasing interactions, opportunities for gene flow, and associated conservation implications. To quantify genetic diversity, phylogenomic structure, and dynamics of hybridization in sympatric populations of white-tailed and mule deer, we used mitochondrial cytochrome b data coupled with SNP loci discovered with double-digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing. We recovered 25,018 SNPs across 92 deer samples from both species, collected from two regions of western Kansas. Eight individuals with unambiguous external morphology representing both species were of hybrid origin (8.7%), and represented the product of multi-generational backcrossing. Mitochondrial data showed both ancient and recent directional discordance with morphological species assignments, reflecting a legacy of mule deer males mating with white-tailed deer females. Mule deer had lower genetic diversity than white-tailed deer, and both mitochondrial and nuclear data suggest contemporary mule deer effective population decline. Landscape genetic analyses show relative isolation between the two study regions for white-tailed deer, but greater connectivity among mule deer, with predominant movement from north to south. Collectively, our results suggest a long history of gene flow between these species in the Great Plains and hint at evolutionary processes that purge incompatible functional genomic elements as a result of hybridization. Surviving hybrids evidently may be reproductive, but with unknown consequences for the future integrity of these species, population trajectories, or relative susceptibility to emerging pathogens.

Female mate preferences do not predict male sexual signals across populations

New species can arise when female preferences and male sexual signals diverge across populations and thereby reduce mating between populations. Under this hypothesized mechanism for speciation, mate preferences and sexual signals should be correlated, but divergent, across populations. We evaluated this prediction using spadefoot toads (Spea multiplicata). We measured a sexually selected male signal (call rate) for which female preferences are known to vary across populations in response to the risk of hybridizing with another species. Contrary to expectation, we found no correlation between male call rate and female preferences across populations. We discuss possible mechanisms of this pattern, including the effect of gene flow from heterospecifics on male call rate. Our results suggest that, even when populations vary in mating traits, the independent evolution of female preferences and male sexual signals might impede reproductive isolation between populations.

The genomic consequences of hybridization

In the past decade, advances in genome sequencing have allowed researchers to uncover the history of hybridization in diverse groups of species, including our own. Although the field has made impressive progress in documenting the extent of natural hybridization, both historical and recent, there are still many unanswered questions about its genetic and evolutionary consequences. Recent work has suggested that the outcomes of hybridization in the genome may be in part predictable, but many open questions about the nature of selection on hybrids and the biological variables that shape such selection have hampered progress in this area. We synthesize what is known about the mechanisms that drive changes in ancestry in the genome after hybridization, highlight major unresolved questions, and discuss their implications for the predictability of genome evolution after hybridization.

Genetically diverse populations spread faster in benign but not in challenging environments

Population spread from a limited pool of founding propagules is at the basis of biological invasions. The size and genetic variation of these propagules eventually affect whether the invasion is successful or not. The inevitable bottleneck at introduction decreases genetic diversity, and therefore should affect population growth and spread. However, many heavily bottlenecked invasive populations have been successful in nature. Negative effects of a genetic bottleneck are typically considered to be relaxed in benign environments because of a release from stress. Despite its relevance to understand and predict invasions, empirical evidence on the role of genetic diversity in relation to habitat quality is largely lacking. We use the mite Tetranychus urticae Koch as a model to experimentally assess spread rate and size of genetically depleted inbred populations vs. enriched mixed populations. This was assessed in replicated linear patch systems consisting of benign (bean), challenging (tomato), or a gradient (bean to tomato) habitat. As expected, we found no effect of genetic diversity on population size in benign habitat but found that it increased population size in challenging habitat. However, we found that population spread rates were increased due to genetic diversity in the benign but not in the challenging habitat. Additionally, variance in spread was consistently higher in genetically poor populations and highest in the challenging habitat. Our experiment challenges the general view that a bottleneck in genetic variation decreases invasion success in challenging but not benign environments.

Population Genetics of Odontarrhena (Brassicaceae) from Albania: The Effects of Anthropic Habitat Disturbance, Soil, and Altitude on a Ni-Hyperaccumulator Plant Group from a Major Serpentine Hotspot

Albanian taxa and populations of the genus Odontarrhena are most promising candidates for research on metal tolerance and Ni-agromining, but their genetic structure remains unknown. We investigated phylogenetic relationships and genetic differentiation in relation to distribution and ploidy of the taxa, anthropic site disturbance, elevation, soil type, and trace metals at each population site. After performing DNA sequencing of selected accessions, we applied DNA-fingerprinting to analyze the genetic structure of 32 populations from ultramafic and non-ultramafic outcrops across Albania. Low sequence divergence resulted in poorly resolved phylograms, but supported affinity between the two diploid serpentine endemics O. moravensis and O. rigida. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed significant population differentiation, but no isolation by distance. Among-population variation was higher in polyploids than in diploids, in which genetic distances were lower. Genetic admixing at population and individual level occurred especially in the polyploids O. chalcidica, O. decipiens, and O. smolikana. Admixing increased with site disturbance. Outlier loci were higher in serpentine populations but decreased along altitude with lower drought and heat stress. Genetic variability gained by gene flow and hybridization at contact zones with "resident" species of primary ultramafic habitats promoted expansion of the tetraploid O. chalcidica across anthropogenic sites.

Genetic integrity is still maintained in natural populations of the indigenous wild apple species Malus sylvestris (Mill.) in Saxony as demonstrated with nuclear SSR and chloroplast DNA markers

Malus sylvestris (Mill.) is the only indigenous wild apple species in Central Europe. Agriculture, forestry, and urbanization increasingly endanger Malus sylvestris natural habitats. In addition, the risks of cross-hybridization associated with increase in the cultivation of the domesticated apple Malus × domestica (Borkh.) threaten the genetic integrity of M. sylvestris. The present study investigated the number of hybrids, genetic diversity, and genetic structure of 292 putative M. sylvestris that originate from five different natural M. sylvestris populations in Saxony, Germany. All samples were genetically analyzed using nine nuclear microsatellite markers (ncSSR) and four maternally inherited chloroplast markers (cpDNA) along with 56 apple cultivars commonly cultivated in Saxony. Eighty-seven percent of the wild apple accessions were identified as pure M. sylvestris. The cpDNA analysis showed six private haplotypes for M. sylvestris, whereas three haplotypes were present in M. sylvestris and M. × domestica. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) resulted in a moderate (ncSSR) and great (cpDNA) variation among pure M. sylvestris and M. × domestica individuals indicating a low gene flow between both species. The genetic diversity within the pure M. sylvestris populations was high with a weak genetic structure between the M. sylvestris populations indicating an unrestricted genetic exchange between these M. sylvestris populations. The clear distinguishing of M. sylvestris and M. ×domestica confirms our expectation of the existence of pure M. sylvestris accessions in this area and supports the argument for the implementation of preservation measures to protect the M. sylvestris populations in Saxony.

Little genetic structure in a Bornean endemic small mammal across a steep ecological gradient

Janzen's influential "mountain passes are higher in the tropics" hypothesis predicts restricted gene flow and genetic isolation among populations spanning elevational gradients in the tropics. Few studies have tested this prediction, and studies that focus on population genetic structure in Southeast Asia are particularly underrepresented in the literature. Here, we test the hypothesis that mountain treeshrews (Tupaia montana) exhibit limited dispersal across their broad elevational range which spans ~2,300 m on two peaks in Kinabalu National Park (KNP) in Borneo: Mt Tambuyukon (MT) and Mt Kinabalu (MK). We sampled 83 individuals across elevations on both peaks and performed population genomics analyses on mitogenomes and single nucleotide polymorphisms from 4,106 ultraconserved element loci. We detected weak genetic structure and infer gene flow both across elevations and between peaks. We found higher genetic differentiation on MT than MK despite its lower elevation and associated environmental variation. This implies that, contrary to our hypothesis, genetic structure in this system is not primarily shaped by elevation. We propose that this pattern may instead be the result of historical processes and limited upslope gene flow on MT. Importantly, our results serve as a foundational estimate of genetic diversity and population structure from which to track potential future effects of climate change on mountain treeshrews in KNP, an important conservation stronghold for the mountain treeshrew and other montane species.

Colonization of Marginal Host Plants by Seed Beetles (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae): Effects of Geographic Source and Genetic Admixture

The ability to adapt to a novel host plant may vary among insect populations with different genetic histories, and colonization of a marginal host may be facilitated by genetic admixture of disparate populations. We assembled populations of the seed beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus (F.), from four continents, and compared their ability to infest two hosts, lentil and pea. We also formed two cross-continent hybrids (Africa × N.A. and Africa × S.A.). In pre-selection assays, survival was only ~3% in lentil and ~40% in pea. For three replicate populations per line, colonization success on lentil was measured as cumulative exit holes after 75-175 d. On pea, we estimated the change in larval survival after five generations of selection. Females in all lines laid few eggs on lentil, and survival of F1 larvae was uniformly <5%. Subsequently, however, the lines diverged considerably in population growth. Performance on lentil was highest in the Africa × N.A. hybrid, which produced far more adults (mean > 11,000) than either parental line. At the other extreme, Asian populations on lentil appeared to have gone extinct. The Africa × N.A. line also exhibited the highest survival on pea, and again performed better than either parent line. However, no line displayed a rapid increase in survival on pea, as is sometimes observed on lentil. Our results demonstrate that geographic populations can vary substantially in their responses to the same novel resource. In addition, genetic admixtures (potentially caused by long-distance transport of infested seeds) may facilitate colonization of an initially poor host.

Evolutionary principles guiding amphibian conservation

The Anthropocene has witnessed catastrophic amphibian declines across the globe. A multitude of new, primarily human-induced drivers of decline may lead to extinction, but can also push species onto novel evolutionary trajectories. If these are recognized by amphibian biologists, they can be engaged in conservation actions. Here, we summarize how principles stemming from evolutionary concepts have been applied for conservation purposes, and address emerging ideas at the vanguard of amphibian conservation science. In particular, we examine the consequences of increased drift and inbreeding in small populations and their implications for practical conservation. We then review studies of connectivity between populations at the landscape level, which have emphasized the limiting influence of anthropogenic structures and degraded habitat on genetic cohesion. The rapid pace of environmental changes leads to the central question of whether amphibian populations can cope either by adapting to new conditions or by shifting their ranges. We gloomily conclude that extinction seems far more likely than adaptation or range shifts for most species. That said, conservation strategies employing evolutionary principles, such as selective breeding, introduction of adaptive variants through translocations, ecosystem interventions aimed at decreasing phenotype-environment mismatch, or genetic engineering, may effectively counter amphibian decline in some areas or for some species. The spread of invasive species and infectious diseases has often had disastrous consequences, but has also provided some premier examples of rapid evolution with conservation implications. Much can be done in terms of setting aside valuable amphibian habitat that should encompass both natural and agricultural areas, as well as designing protected areas to maximize the phylogenetic and functional diversity of the amphibian community. We conclude that an explicit consideration and application of evolutionary principles, although certainly not a silver bullet, should increase effectiveness of amphibian conservation in both the short and long term.

Hybridization fluctuates with rainfall in Darwin’s tree finches

Hybridization in natural populations may be an adaptive response to shifting climatic regimes, but understanding this can be limited by the timing of sampling effort and confident identification of hybrids. On the Galapagos Islands, Darwin’s finches regularly hybridize; the islands also show extreme annual variation in rainfall, but the effect of annual rainfall on the frequency of finch hybridization is little known. Across a 20-year period on Floreana Island, we compare patterns of hybridization in sympatric Darwin’s tree finches (N = 425; Camaryhnchus spp.) and test for an effect of annual rainfall on (1) the frequency of hybrids (C. pauper × C. parvulus) and (2) the percentage of male hybrid birds produced per year (hybrid recruitment). Annual rainfall correlated with recruitment positively for hybrids, negatively for C. parvulus and not at all for C. pauper. Furthermore, the percentage of hybrids (range: 12–56%) and C. parvulus did not change with sampling year, but the critically endangered C. pauper declined. Our findings indicate that hybrid recruitment is recurring and variable according to annual rainfall in Camarhynchus Darwin’s finches.

The genetics of evolutionary radiations

With the realization that much of the biological diversity on Earth has been generated by discrete evolutionary radiations, there has been a rapid increase in research into the biotic (key innovations) and abiotic (key environments) circumstances in which such radiations took place. Here we focus on the potential importance of population genetic structure and trait genetic architecture in explaining radiations. We propose a verbal model describing the stages of an evolutionary radiation: first invading a suitable adaptive zone and expanding both spatially and ecologically through this zone; secondly, diverging genetically into numerous distinct populations; and, finally, speciating. There are numerous examples of the first stage; the difficulty, however, is explaining how genetic diversification can take place from the establishment of a, presumably, genetically depauperate population in a new adaptive zone. We explore the potential roles of epigenetics and transposable elements (TEs), of neutral process such as genetic drift in combination with trait genetic architecture, of gene flow limitation through isolation by distance (IBD), isolation by ecology and isolation by colonization, the possible role of intra-specific competition, and that of admixture and hybridization in increasing the genetic diversity of the founding populations. We show that many of the predictions of this model are corroborated. Most radiations occur in complex adaptive zones, which facilitate the establishment of many small populations exposed to genetic drift and divergent selection. We also show that many radiations (especially those resulting from long-distance dispersal) were established by polyploid lineages, and that many radiating lineages have small genome sizes. However, there are several other predictions which are not (yet) possible to test: that epigenetics has played a role in radiations, that radiations occur more frequently in clades with small gene flow distances, or that the ancestors of radiations had large fundamental niches. At least some of these may be testable in the future as more genome and epigenome data become available. The implication of this model is that many radiations may be hard polytomies because the genetic divergence leading to speciation happens within a very short time, and that the divergence history may be further obscured by hybridization. Furthermore, it suggests that only lineages with the appropriate genetic architecture will be able to radiate, and that such a radiation will happen in a meta-population environment. Understanding the genetic architecture of a lineage may be an essential part of accounting for why some lineages radiate, and some do not.

Female toads engaging in adaptive hybridization prefer high-quality heterospecifics as mates

Hybridization—interbreeding between species—is generally thought to occur randomly between members of two species. Contrary to expectation, female plains spadefoot toads (Spea bombifrons) can increase their evolutionary fitness by preferentially mating with high-quality males of another species, the Mexican spadefoot toad (Spea multiplicata). Aspects of Mexican spadefoot males’ mating calls predict their hybrid offspring’s fitness, and plains spadefoot females prefer Mexican spadefoot males on the basis of these attributes, but only in populations and ecological conditions where hybridization is adaptive. By selecting fitness-enhancing mates of another species, females increase hybridization’s benefits and exert sexual selection across species. Nonrandom mating between species can thereby increase the potential for adaptive gene flow between species so that adaptive introgression is not simply happenstance.

Genome of Spea multiplicata, a Rapidly Developing, Phenotypically Plastic, and Desert-Adapted Spadefoot Toad

Frogs and toads (anurans) are widely used to study many biological processes. Yet, few anuran genomes have been sequenced, limiting research on these organisms. Here, we produce a draft genome for the Mexican spadefoot toad, Spea multiplicata, which is a member of an unsequenced anuran clade. Atypically for amphibians, spadefoots inhabit deserts. Consequently, they possess many unique adaptations, including rapid growth and development, prolonged dormancy, phenotypic (developmental) plasticity, and adaptive, interspecies hybridization. We assembled and annotated a 1.07 Gb Sp. multiplicata genome containing 19,639 genes. By comparing this sequence to other available anuran genomes, we found gene amplifications in the gene families of nodal, hyas3, and zp3 in spadefoots, and obtained evidence that anuran genome size differences are partially driven by variability in intergenic DNA content. We also used the genome to identify genes experiencing positive selection and to study gene expression levels in spadefoot hybrids relative to their pure-species parents. Completion of the Sp. multiplicata genome advances efforts to determine the genetic bases of spadefoots' unique adaptations and enhances comparative genomic research in anurans.

Plant speciation in the age of climate change

BACKGROUND

Species diversity is likely to undergo a sharp decline in the next century. Perhaps as many as 33 % of all plant species may expire as a result of climate change. All parts of the globe will be impacted, and all groups of organisms will be affected. Hundreds of species throughout the world have already experienced local extinction.

PERSPECTIVES

While thousands of species may become extinct in the next century and beyond, species formation will still occur. I consider which modes of plant species formation are likely to prevail in the next 500 years. I argue that speciation primarily will involve mechanisms that produce reproductively isolated lineages within less (often much less) than 100 generations. I will not especially consider the human element in promoting species formation, because it will continue and because the conclusions presented here are unaffected by it. The impact of climate change may be much more severe and widespread.

CONCLUSIONS

The most common modes of speciation likely to be operative in the next 500 years ostensibly will be auto- and allopolyploidy. Polyploid species or the antecedents thereof can arise within two generations. Moreover, polyploids often have broader ecological tolerances, and are likely to be more invasive than are their diploid relatives. Polyploid species may themselves spawn additional higher level polyploids either through crosses with diploid species or between pre-existing polyploids. The percentage of polyploid species is likely to exceed 50 % within the next 500 years vs. 35 % today. The stabilized hybrid derivatives (homoploid hybrid speciation) could emerge within a hundred generations after species contact, as could speciation involving chromosomal rearrangements (and perhaps number), but the number of such events is likely to be low. Speciation involving lineage splitting will be infrequent because the formation of substantive pre- and post-zygotic barriers typically takes many thousands of years.

Genetic admixture despite ecological segregation in a North African sparrow hybrid zone (Aves, Passeriformes, Passer domesticus × Passer hispaniolensis)

Under different environmental conditions, hybridization between the same species might result in different patterns of genetic admixture. Particularly, species pairs with large distribution ranges and long evolutionary history may have experienced several independent hybridization events over time in different zones of overlap. In birds, the diverse hybrid populations of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) and the Spanish sparrow (Passer hispaniolensis) provide a striking example. Throughout their range of sympatry, these two species do not regularly interbreed; however, a stabilized hybrid form (Passer italiae) exists on the Italian Peninsula and on several Mediterranean islands. The spatial distribution pattern on the Eurasian continent strongly contrasts the situation in North Africa, where house sparrows and Spanish sparrows occur in close vicinity of phenotypically intermediate populations across a broad mosaic hybrid zone. In this study, we investigate patterns of divergence and admixture among the two parental species, stabilized and nonstabilized hybrid populations in Italy and Algeria based on a mitochondrial marker, a sex chromosomal marker, and 12 microsatellite loci. In Algeria, despite strong spatial and temporal separation of urban early-breeding house sparrows and hybrids and rural late-breeding Spanish sparrows, we found strong genetic admixture of mitochondrial and nuclear markers across all study populations and phenotypes. That pattern of admixture in the North African hybrid zone is strikingly different from i) the Iberian area of sympatry where we observed only weak asymmetrical introgression of Spanish sparrow nuclear alleles into local house sparrow populations and ii) the very homogenous Italian sparrow population where the mitogenome of one parent (P. domesticus) and the Z-chromosomal marker of the other parent (P. hispaniolensis) are fixed. The North African sparrow hybrids provide a further example of enhanced hybridization along with recent urbanization and anthropogenic land-use changes in a mosaic landscape.

Variation in hybrid gene expression: Implications for the evolution of genetic incompatibilities in interbreeding species

Interbreeding species often produce low-fitness hybrids due to genetic incompatibilities between parental genomes. Whether these incompatibilities reflect fixed allelic differences between hybridizing species, or, alternatively, standing variants that segregate within them, remains unknown for many natural systems. Yet, evaluating these alternatives is important for understanding the origins and nature of species boundaries. We examined these alternatives using spadefoot toads (genus Spea), which naturally hybridize. Specifically, we contrasted patterns of gene expression in hybrids relative to pure-species types in experimentally produced tadpoles from allopatric parents versus those from sympatric parents. We evaluated the prediction that segregating variation should result in gene expression differences between hybrids derived from sympatric parents versus hybrids derived from allopatric parents, and found that 24% of the transcriptome showed such differences. Our results further suggest that gene expression in hybrids has evolved in sympatry owing to evolutionary pressures associated with ongoing hybridization. Although we did not measure hybrid incompatibilities directly, we discuss the implications of our findings for understanding the nature of hybrid incompatibilities, how they might vary across populations over time, and the resulting effects on the evolutionary maintenance - or breakdown - of reproductive barriers between species.

How stabilizing selection and nongenetic inheritance combine to shape the evolution of phenotypic plasticity

Relatively little is known about whether and how nongenetic inheritance interacts with selection to impact the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Here, we empirically evaluated how stabilizing selection and a common form of nongenetic inheritance-maternal environmental effects-jointly influence the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in natural populations of spadefoot toads. We compared populations that previous fieldwork has shown to have evolved conspicuous plasticity in resource-use phenotypes ("resource polyphenism") with those that, owing to stabilizing selection favouring a narrower range of such phenotypes, appear to have lost this plasticity. We show that: (a) this apparent loss of plasticity in nature reflects a condition-dependent maternal effect and not a genetic loss of plasticity, that is "genetic assimilation," and (b) this plasticity is not costly. By shielding noncostly plasticity from selection, nongenetic inheritance generally, and maternal effects specifically, can preclude genetic assimilation from occurring and consequently impede adaptive (genetic) evolution.

Plasticity-led evolution: evaluating the key prediction of frequency-dependent adaptation

Plasticity-led evolution occurs when a change in the environment triggers a change in phenotype via phenotypic plasticity, and this pre-existing plasticity is subsequently refined by selection into an adaptive phenotype. A critical, but largely untested prediction of plasticity-led evolution (and evolution by natural selection generally) is that the rate and magnitude of evolutionary change should be positively associated with a phenotype's frequency of expression in a population. Essentially, the more often a phenotype is expressed and exposed to selection, the greater its opportunity for adaptive refinement. We tested this prediction by competing against each other spadefoot toad tadpoles from different natural populations that vary in how frequently they express a novel, environmentally induced carnivore ecomorph. As expected, laboratory-reared tadpoles whose parents were derived from populations that express the carnivore ecomorph more frequently were superior competitors for the resource for which this ecomorph is specialized-fairy shrimp. These tadpoles were better at using this resource both because they were more efficient at capturing and consuming shrimp and because they produced more exaggerated carnivore traits. Moreover, they exhibited these more carnivore-like features even without experiencing the inducing cue, suggesting that this ecomorph has undergone an extreme form of plasticity-led evolution-genetic assimilation. Thus, our findings provide evidence that the frequency of trait expression drives the magnitude of adaptive refinement, thereby validating a key prediction of plasticity-led evolution specifically and adaptive evolution generally.

Phenotypic plasticity, canalization, and the origins of novelty: Evidence and mechanisms from amphibians

A growing number of biologists have begun asking whether environmentally induced phenotypic change--'phenotypic plasticity'--precedes and facilitates the origin and canalization of novel, complex phenotypes. However, such 'plasticity-first evolution' (PFE) remains controversial. Here, we summarize the PFE hypothesis and describe how it can be evaluated in natural systems. We then review the evidence for PFE from amphibians (a group in which phenotypic plasticity is especially widespread) and describe how phenotypic plasticity might have facilitated macroevolutionary change. Finally, we discuss what is known about the proximate mechanisms of PFE in amphibians. We close with suggestions for future research. As we describe, amphibians offer some of the best support for plasticity's role in the origin of evolutionary novelties.