Destabilizing evolutionary and eco-evolutionary feedbacks drive empirical eco-evolutionary cycles

Nonlinear eco-evolutionary games with global environmental fluctuations and local environmental feedbacks

Environmental changes play a critical role in determining the evolution of social dilemmas in many natural or social systems. Generally, the environmental changes include two prominent aspects: the global time-dependent fluctuations and the local strategy-dependent feedbacks. However, the impacts of these two types of environmental changes have only been studied separately, a complete picture of the environmental effects exerted by the combination of these two aspects remains unclear. Here we develop a theoretical framework that integrates group strategic behaviors with their general dynamic environments, where the global environmental fluctuations are associated with a nonlinear factor in public goods game and the local environmental feedbacks are described by the 'eco-evolutionary game'. We show how the coupled dynamics of local game-environment evolution differ in static and dynamic global environments. In particular, we find the emergence of cyclic evolution of group cooperation and local environment, which forms an interior irregular loop in the phase plane, depending on the relative changing speed of both global and local environments compared to the strategic change. Further, we observe that this cyclic evolution disappears and transforms into an interior stable equilibrium when the global environment is frequency-dependent. Our results provide important insights into how diverse evolutionary outcomes could emerge from the nonlinear interactions between strategies and the changing environments.

Predation drives complex eco-evolutionary dynamics in sexually selected traits

Predation plays a role in preventing the evolution of ever more complicated sexual displays, because such displays often increase an individual's predation risk. Sexual selection theory, however, omits a key feature of predation in modeling costs to sexually selected traits: Predation is density dependent. As a result of this density dependence, predator-prey dynamics should feed back into the evolution of sexual displays, which, in turn, feeds back into predator-prey dynamics. Here, we develop both population and quantitative genetic models of sexual selection that explicitly link the evolution of sexual displays with predator-prey dynamics. Our primary result is that predation can drive eco-evolutionary cycles in sexually selected traits. We also show that mechanistically modeling the cost to sexual displays as predation leads to novel outcomes such as the maintenance of polymorphism in sexual displays and alters ecological dynamics by muting prey cycles. These results suggest predation as a potential mechanism to maintain variation in sexual displays and underscore that short-term studies of sexual display evolution may not accurately predict long-run dynamics. Further, they demonstrate that a common verbal model (that predation limits sexual displays) with widespread empirical support can result in unappreciated, complex dynamics due to the density-dependent nature of predation.

Evolutionary emergence of alternative stable states in shallow lakes

Ecosystems under stress may respond abruptly and irreversibly through tipping points. Although mechanisms leading to alternative stable states are much studied, little is known about how such ecosystems could have emerged in the first place. We investigate whether evolution by natural selection along resource gradients leads to bistability, using shallow lakes as an example. There, tipping points occur between two alternative states dominated by either submersed or floating macrophytes depending on nutrient loading. We model the evolution of macrophyte depth in the lake, identify the conditions under which the ancestor population diversifies and investigate whether alternative stable states dominated by different macrophyte phenotypes occur. We find that eco-evolutionary dynamics may lead to alternative stable states, but under restrictive conditions. Such dynamics require sufficient asymmetries in the acquisition of both light and nutrient. Our analysis suggests that competitive asymmetries along opposing resource gradients may allow bistability to emerge by natural selection.

Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

The transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how indirect evolutionary rescue—due to the rapid evolution of a predator’s trait—can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats.

Sick of eating: Eco-evo-immuno dynamics of predators and their trophically acquired parasites

When predators consume prey, they risk becoming infected with their prey's parasites, which can then establish the predator as a secondary host. A predator population's diet therefore influences what parasites it is exposed to, as has been repeatedly shown in many species such as threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) (more benthic‐feeding individuals obtain nematodes from oligocheate prey, whereas limnetic‐feeding individuals catch cestodes from copepod prey). These differing parasite encounters, in turn, determine how natural selection acts on the predator's immune system. We might therefore expect that ecoevolutionary dynamics of a predator's diet (as determined by its ecomorphology) should drive correlated evolution of its immune traits. Conversely, the predator's immunity to certain parasites might alter the relative costs and benefits of different prey, driving evolution of its ecomorphology. To evaluate the potential for ecological morphology to drive evolution of immunity, and vice versa, we use a quantitative genetics framework coupled with an ecological model of a predator and two prey species (the diet options). Our analysis reveals fundamental asymmetries in the evolution of ecomorphology and immunity. When ecomorphology rapidly evolves, it determines how immunity evolves, but not vice versa. Weak trade‐offs in ecological morphology select for diet generalists despite strong immunological trade‐offs, but not vice versa. Only weak immunological trade‐offs can explain negative diet‐infection correlations across populations. The analysis also reveals that eco‐evo‐immuno feedbacks destabilize population dynamics when trade‐offs are sufficiently weak and heritability is sufficiently high. Collectively, these results highlight the delicate interplay between multivariate trait evolution and the dynamics of ecological communities.

Extinction in complex communities as driven by adaptive dynamics

In a complex community, species continuously adapt to each other. On rare occasions, the adaptation of a species can lead to the extinction of others, and even its own. 'Adaptive dynamics' is the standard mathematical framework to describe evolutionary changes in community interactions, and in particular, predict adaptation driven extinction. Unfortunately, most authors implement the equations of adaptive dynamics through computer simulations that require assuming a large number of questionable parameters and fitness functions. In this study, we present analytical solutions to adaptive dynamics equations, thereby clarifying how outcomes depend on any computational input. We develop general formulas that predict equilibrium abundances over evolutionary time scales. Additionally, we predict which species will go extinct next, and when this will happen.

Evolutionary and Plastic Phenotypic Change Can Be Just as Fast as Changes in Population Densities

AbstractEvolution and plasticity can drive population-level phenotypic change (e.g., changes in the mean phenotype) on timescales comparable to changes in population densities. However, it is unclear whether phenotypic change has the potential to be just as fast as changes in densities or whether comparable rates of change occur only when densities are changing slow enough for phenotypes to keep pace. Moreover, it is unclear whether this depends on the mode of adaptation. Using scaling theory and fast-slow dynamical systems theory, we develop a method for comparing maximum rates of density and phenotypic change estimated from population-level time-series data. We apply our method to 30 published empirical studies where changes in morphological traits are caused by evolution, plasticity, or an unknown combination. For every study, the maximum rate of phenotypic change was between 0.5 and 2.5 times faster than the maximum rate of change in density. Moreover, there were no systematic differences between systems with different modes of adaptation. Our results show that plasticity and evolution can drive phenotypic change just as fast as changes in densities. We discuss the implications of our results in terms of the strengths of feedbacks between population densities and traits.