Dendrochronological dates confirm a Late Prehistoric population decline in the American Southwest derived from radiocarbon dates

Positive feedbacks in deep-time transitions of human populations

Abrupt and rapid changes in human societies are among the most exciting population phenomena. Human populations tend to show rapid expansions from low to high population density along with increased social complexity in just a few generations. Such demographic transitions appear as a remarkable feature of Homo sapiens population dynamics, most likely fuelled by the ability to accumulate cultural/technological innovations that actively modify their environment. We are especially interested in establishing if the demographic transitions of pre-historic populations show the same dynamic signature of the Industrial Revolution transition (a positive relationship between population growth rates and size). Our results show that population growth patterns across different pre-historic societies were similar to those observed during the Industrial Revolution in developed western societies. These features, which appear to have been operating during most of our recent demographic history from hunter-gatherers to modern industrial societies, imply that the dynamics of cooperation underlay sudden population transitions in human societies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

1000 years of population, warfare, and climate change in pre-Columbian societies of the Central Andes

Different Andean societies underwent processes of expansion and collapse during propitious or adverse climate conditions, resource boost or depletion along with population variations. Previous studies have emphasized that demographic collapses of polities in the Central Andes Area were triggered by warfare and the negative impacts of fluctuating climate (droughts) on crop productivity. Nevertheless, the interactions between climatic variability, demography and warfare have been less thoroughly evaluated. We develop population dynamic models to test feedback relationships between population growth, climate change and warfare in the Central Andes, where considerable regional hydroclimate variations have occurred over a millennium. Through population models, we found out that the rise and demise of social polities in the northern coast of the Central Andes appear to be a consequence of climate change. In contrast, for the highlands of Peru and the Titicaca basin, population models suggest that warfare intensity has a negative effect on population growth rates.

A Critical Assessment of the Congruency between Environmental DNA and Palaeoecology for the Biodiversity Monitoring and Palaeoenvironmental Reconstruction

The present study suggests that standardized methodology, careful site selection, and stratigraphy are essential for investigating ancient ecosystems in order to evaluate biodiversity and DNA-based time series. Based on specific keywords, this investigation reviewed 146 publications using the SCOPUS, Web of Science (WoS), PUBMED, and Google Scholar databases. Results indicate that environmental deoxyribose nucleic acid (eDNA) can be pivotal for assessing and conserving ecosystems. Our review revealed that in the last 12 years (January 2008–July 2021), 63% of the studies based on eDNA have been reported from aquatic ecosystems, 25% from marine habitats, and 12% from terrestrial environments. Out of studies conducted in aquatic systems using the environmental DNA (eDNA) technique, 63% of the investigations have been reported from freshwater ecosystems, with an utmost focus on fish diversity (40%). Further analysis of the literature reveals that during the same period, 24% of the investigations using the environmental DNA technique were carried out on invertebrates, 8% on mammals, 7% on plants, 6% on reptiles, and 5% on birds. The results obtained clearly indicate that the environmental DNA technique has a clear-cut edge over other biodiversity monitoring methods. Furthermore, we also found that eDNA, in conjunction with different dating techniques, can provide better insight into deciphering eco-evolutionary feedback. Therefore, an attempt has been made to offer extensive information on the application of dating methods for different taxa present in diverse ecosystems. Last, we provide suggestions and elucidations on how to overcome the caveats and delineate some of the research avenues that will likely shape this field in the near future. This paper aims to identify the gaps in environmental DNA (eDNA) investigations to help researchers, ecologists, and decision-makers to develop a holistic understanding of environmental DNA (eDNA) and its utility as a palaeoenvironmental contrivance.

Regional Patterns of Late Medieval and Early Modern European Building Activity Revealed by Felling Dates

Although variations in building activity are a useful indicator of societal well-being and demographic development, historical datasets for larger regions and longer periods are still rare. Here, we present 54,045 annually precise dendrochronological felling dates from historical construction timber from across most of Europe between 1250 and 1699 CE to infer variations in building activity. We use geostatistical techniques to compare spatiotemporal dynamics in past European building activity against independent demographic, economic, social and climatic data. We show that the felling dates capture major geographical patterns of demographic trends, especially in regions with dense data coverage. A particularly strong negative association is found between grain prices and the number of felling dates. In addition, a significant positive association is found between the number of felling dates and mining activity. These strong associations, with well-known macro-economic indicators from pre-industrial Europe, corroborate the use of felling dates as an independent source for exploring large-scale fluctuations of societal well-being and demographic development. Three prominent examples are the building boom in the Hanseatic League region of northeastern Germany during the 13th century, the onset of the Late Medieval Crisis in much of Europe c. 1300, and the cessation of building activity in large parts of central Europe during armed conflicts such as the Thirty Years’ War (1618–1648 CE). Despite new insights gained from our European-wide felling date inventory, further studies are needed to investigate changes in construction activity of high versus low status buildings, and of urban versus rural buildings, and to compare those results with a variety of historical documentary sources and natural proxy archives.

Archaeology, demography and life history theory together can help us explain past and present population patterns

Population matters. Demographic patterns are both a cause and a consequence of human behaviour in other important domains, such as subsistence, cooperation, politics and culture. Demographers interested in contemporary and recent historical populations have rich data at their fingertips; the importance of demography means many interested parties have gathered demographic data, much of which is now readily available for all to explore. Those interested in the demography of the distant past are not so fortunate, given the lack of written records. Nevertheless, the emergence in recent years of a new interest in the demography of ancient populations has seen the development of a range of new methods for piecing together archaeological, skeletal and DNA evidence to reconstruct past population patterns. These efforts have found evidence in support of the view that the relatively low long-term population growth rates of prehistoric human populations, albeit ultimately conditioned by carrying capacities, may have been owing to 'boom-bust' cycles at the regional level; rapid population growth, followed by population decline. In fact, this archaeological research may have come to the same conclusion as some contemporary demographers: that demography can be remarkably hard to predict, at least in the short term. It also fits with evidence from biology that primates, and particularly humans, may be adapted to environmental variability, leading to associated demographic stochasticity. This evidence of the fluctuating nature of human demographic patterns may be of considerable significance in understanding our species' evolution, and of understanding what our species future demographic trajectories might be. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.