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Enright J, Hill EM, Stage HB, Bolton KJ, Nixon EJ, Fairbanks EL, Tang ML, Brooks-Pollock E, Dyson L, Budd CJ, Hoyle RB, Schewe L, Gog JR, Tildesley MJ. SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2021; 8:210310. [PMID: 34386249 PMCID: PMC8334840 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.210310] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2021] [Accepted: 07/16/2021] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
In this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in late 2020 was consistent with the expected importation of infection from arriving students. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission. The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimes spillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the local population. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. We found the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms of reducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation is likely to be much more important for reducing transmission during term time. Finally, we explored strategies for testing students in the context of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a major outbreak.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica Enright
- School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Edward M. Hill
- The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
- Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UK https://maths.org/juniper/
| | - Helena B. Stage
- Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UK https://maths.org/juniper/
- Department of Mathematics, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, UK
| | - Kirsty J. Bolton
- Centre for Mathematical Medicine and Biology, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, UK
| | - Emily J. Nixon
- Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UK https://maths.org/juniper/
- Veterinary Public Health, Bristol Veterinary School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Emma L. Fairbanks
- Centre for Mathematical Medicine and Biology, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, UK
- School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Loughborough, UK
| | - Maria L. Tang
- School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Loughborough, UK
- Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Ellen Brooks-Pollock
- Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UK https://maths.org/juniper/
- Bristol Medical School, Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Louise Dyson
- The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
- Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UK https://maths.org/juniper/
| | - Chris J. Budd
- School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath, UK
| | - Rebecca B. Hoyle
- School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Lars Schewe
- University of Edinburgh, School of Mathematics, James Clerk Maxwell Building, Peter Guthrie Tait Road, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Julia R. Gog
- Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UK https://maths.org/juniper/
- Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Michael J. Tildesley
- The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
- Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UK https://maths.org/juniper/
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