Quantifying the potential dominance of immune-evading SARS-CoV-2 variants in the United States

Retrospective analysis of SARS-CoV-2 omicron invasion over delta in French regions in 2021-22: a status-based multi-variant model

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 is a rapidly spreading disease affecting human life and the economy on a global scale. The disease has caused so far more then 5.5 million deaths. The omicron outbreak that emerged in Botswana in the south of Africa spread around the globe at further increased rates, and caused unprecedented SARS-CoV-2 infection incidences in several countries. At the start of December 2021 the first omicron cases were reported in France.

METHODS

In this paper we investigate the spreading potential of this novel variant relatively to the delta variant that was also in circulation in France at that time. Using a dynamic multi-variant model accounting for cross-immunity through a status-based approach, we analyze screening data reported by Santé Publique France over 13 metropolitan French regions between 1st of December 2021 and the 30th of January 2022. During the investigated period, the delta variant was replaced by omicron in all metropolitan regions in approximately three weeks. The analysis conducted retrospectively allows us to consider the whole replacement time window and compare regions with different times of omicron introduction and baseline levels of variants' transmission potential. As large uncertainties regarding cross-immunity among variants persist, uncertainty analyses were carried out to assess its impact on our estimations.

RESULTS

Assuming that 80% of the population was immunized against delta, a cross delta/omicron cross-immunity of 25% and an omicron generation time of 3.5 days, the relative strength of omicron to delta, expressed as the ratio of their respective reproduction rates, [Formula: see text], was found to range between 1.51 and 1.86 across regions. Uncertainty analysis on epidemiological parameters led to [Formula: see text] ranging from 1.57 to 2.34 on average over the metropolitan French regions, weighted by population size.

CONCLUSIONS

Upon introduction, omicron spread rapidly through the French territory and showed a high fitness relative to delta. We documented considerable geographical heterogeneities on the spreading dynamics. The historical reconstruction of variant emergence dynamics provide valuable ground knowledge to face future variant emergence events.

Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review

This study systematically reviews applications of three simulation approaches, that is, system dynamics model (SDM), agent-based model (ABM) and discrete event simulation (DES), and their hybrids in COVID-19 research and identifies theoretical and application innovations in public health. Among the 372 eligible papers, 72 focused on COVID-19 transmission dynamics, 204 evaluated both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, 29 focused on the prediction of the pandemic and 67 investigated the impacts of COVID-19. ABM was used in 275 papers, followed by 54 SDM papers, 32 DES papers and 11 hybrid model papers. Evaluation and design of intervention scenarios are the most widely addressed area accounting for 55% of the four main categories, that is, the transmission of COVID-19, prediction of the pandemic, evaluation and design of intervention scenarios and societal impact assessment. The complexities in impact evaluation and intervention design demand hybrid simulation models that can simultaneously capture micro and macro aspects of the socio-economic systems involved.

Remdesivir and GS-441524 Retain Antiviral Activity against Delta, Omicron, and Other Emergent SARS-CoV-2 Variants

Genetic variation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in the emergence and rapid spread of multiple variants throughout the pandemic, of which Omicron is currently the predominant variant circulating worldwide. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern/variants of interest (VOC/VOI) have evidence of increased viral transmission, disease severity, or decreased effectiveness of vaccines and neutralizing antibodies. Remdesivir (RDV [VEKLURY]) is a nucleoside analog prodrug and the first FDA-approved antiviral treatment of COVID-19. Here, we present a comprehensive antiviral activity assessment of RDV and its parent nucleoside, GS-441524, against 10 current and former SARS-CoV-2 VOC/VOI clinical isolates by nucleoprotein enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and plaque reduction assay. Delta and Omicron variants remained susceptible to RDV and GS-441524, with 50% effective concentration (EC₅₀) values 0.30- to 0.62-fold of those observed against the ancestral WA1 isolate. All other tested variants exhibited EC₅₀ values ranging from 0.13- to 2.3-fold of the observed EC₅₀ values against WA1. Analysis of nearly 6 million publicly available variant isolate sequences confirmed that Nsp12, the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) target of RDV and GS-441524, is highly conserved across variants, with only 2 prevalent changes (P323L and G671S). Using recombinant viruses, both RDV and GS-441524 retained potency against all viruses containing frequent variant substitutions or their combination. Taken together, these results highlight the conserved nature of SARS-CoV-2 Nsp12 and provide evidence of sustained SARS-CoV-2 antiviral activity of RDV and GS-441524 across the tested variants. The observed pan-variant activity of RDV supports its continued use for the treatment of COVID-19 regardless of the SARS-CoV-2 variant.