1,000 ancient genomes uncover 10,000 years of natural selection in Europe

Evaluating ARG-estimation methods in the context of estimating population-mean polygenic score histories

Scalable methods for estimating marginal coalescent trees across the genome present new opportunities for studying evolution and have generated considerable excitement, with new methods extending scalability to thousands of samples. Benchmarking of the available methods has revealed general tradeoffs between accuracy and scalability, but performance in downstream applications has not always been easily predictable from general performance measures, suggesting that specific features of the ancestral recombination graph (ARG) may be important for specific downstream applications of estimated ARGs. To exemplify this point, we benchmark ARG estimation methods with respect to a specific set of methods for estimating the historical time course of a population-mean polygenic score (PGS) using the marginal coalescent trees encoded by the ARG. Here, we examine the performance in simulation of seven ARG estimation methods: ARGweaver, RENT+, Relate, tsinfer+tsdate, ARG-Needle, ASMC-clust, and SINGER, using their estimated coalescent trees and examining bias, mean squared error, confidence interval coverage, and Type I and II error rates of the downstream methods. Although it does not scale to the sample sizes attainable by other new methods, SINGER produced the most accurate estimated PGS histories in many instances, even when Relate, tsinfer+tsdate, ARG-Needle, and ASMC-clust used samples 10 or more times as large as those used by SINGER. In general, the best choice of method depends on the number of samples available and the historical time period of interest. In particular, the unprecedented sample sizes allowed by Relate, tsinfer+tsdate, ARG-Needle, and ASMC-clust are of greatest importance when the recent past is of interest-further back in time, most of the tree has coalesced, and differences in contemporary sample size are less salient.

The Role of ETS2 in Macrophage Inflammation

Autoimmune and inflammatory diseases are rising globally yet widely effective therapies remain elusive. Most treatments have limited efficacy, significant potential side effects, or eventually lose response, underscoring the urgent need for new therapeutic approaches. We recently discovered that ETS2, a transcription factor, functions as a master regulator of macrophage-driven inflammation-and is causally linked to the pathogenesis of multiple inflammatory diseases via human genetics. The pleotropic inflammatory effects of ETS2 included upregulation of many cytokines that are individually targeted by current disease therapies, including TNFα, IL-23, IL1β, and TNF-like ligand 1A signaling. With the move toward combination treatment-to maximize efficacy-targeting ETS2 presents a unique opportunity to potentially induce a broad therapeutic effect. However, there will be multiple challenges to overcome since direct ETS2 inhibition is unlikely to be feasible. Here, we discuss these challenges and other unanswered questions about the central role that ETS2 plays in macrophage inflammation.

Ancient DNA HLA typing reveals significant shifts in frequency in Europe since the Neolithic

Computational HLA typing has surged as a cost-effective strategy to uncover questions regarding the evolution of the HLA system, enabling immunogenic characterization from ancient DNA (aDNA) data. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether these methods are suitable for analyzing aDNA generated without target-enrichment. To investigate this, we evaluated the performance of five HLA typing tools using present-day data with simulated profiles typical of aDNA, as well as from high-coverage aDNA genomes downsampled at different read depths. We found that characterization of Class I genes at the first field resolution is feasible at read depths as low as 2x, where it retains an accuracy of ≈ 80%. Next, we used this insight to characterize HLA evolution in Europe from 154 ancient genomes by detecting allele frequency changes throughout distinct prehistoric European populations. We observed important shifts in alleles associated with infectious and autoimmune diseases, most of which are found by contrasting the HLA landscape of Neolithic Farmers to that of present-day. Interestingly, several of these observations are in line with findings that have been previously reported by target-enrichment-based studies. Our results highlight the feasibility of applying HLA typing on shotgun aDNA data to examine the evolution of this loci during important transitions.

Museum genomics reveals temporal genetic stasis and global genetic diversity in Arabidopsis thaliana

Global patterns of population genetic variation through time offer a window into evolutionary processes that maintain diversity. Over time, lineages may expand or contract their distribution, causing turnover in population genetic composition. At individual loci, migration, drift, environmental change (among other processes) may affect allele frequencies. Museum specimens of widely distributed species offer a unique window into the genetics of understudied populations and changes over time. Here, we sequenced genomes of 130 herbarium specimens and 91 new field collections of Arabidopsis thaliana and combined these with published genomes. We sought a broader view of genomic diversity across the species, and to test if population genomic composition is changing through time. We documented extensive and previously uncharacterized diversity in a range of populations in Africa, populations that are under threat from anthropogenic climate change. Through time, we did not find dramatic changes in genomic composition of populations. Instead, we found a pattern of genetic change every 100 years of the same magnitude seen when comparing Eurasian populations that are 185 km apart, potentially due to a combination of drift and changing selection. We found only mixed signals of polygenic adaptation at phenology and physiology QTL. We did find that genes conserved across eudicots show altered levels of directional allele frequency change, potentially due to variable purifying and background selection. Our study highlights how museum specimens can reveal new dimensions of population diversity and show how wild populations are evolving in recent history.

The impact of Indigenous American-like ancestry on risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in Hispanic/Latino children

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most common childhood cancer, with Hispanic/Latino children having a higher incidence of ALL than other racial/ethnic groups. Genetic variants, particularly ones found enriched in Indigenous American (IA)-like ancestry and inherited by Hispanics/Latinos, may contribute to this disparity. In this study, we characterized the impact of IA-like ancestry on overall ALL risk and the frequency and effect size of known risk alleles in a large cohort of self-reported Hispanic/Latino individuals. We also performed genome-wide admixture mapping analysis to identify potentially novel ALL risk loci. We found that global IA ancestry was positively associated with ALL risk, but the association was not significant after adjusting for socio-economic indicators. In a series of local ancestry analyses, we uncovered that at known ALL risk loci, increasing copies of the IA-like haplotype were positively and significantly associated with ALL case-control status. Further, the IA-like haplotype had ~1.33 times the odds of harboring the risk allele compared to non-IA-like haplotypes. We found no evidence of interaction between genotype and ancestry (local or global) in relation to ALL risk. Admixture mapping identified association signals on chromosomes 2 (2q21.2), 7 (7p12.2), 10 (10q21.2), and 15 (15q22.31); however, only the variants at 7p12.2 and 10q21.2 replicated in additional cohorts. Taken together, our results suggest that increased risk of ALL in Hispanic/Latino children may be conferred by higher frequency of risk alleles within IA-like ancestry, which can be leveraged as targets of new precision health strategies and therapeutics.

Leveraging ancient DNA to uncover signals of natural selection in Europe lost due to admixture or drift

Large ancient DNA (aDNA) studies offer the chance to examine genomic changes over time, providing direct insights into human evolution. While recent studies have used time-stratified aDNA for selection scans, most focus on single-locus methods. We conducted a multi-locus genotype scan on 708 samples spanning 7000 years of European history. We show that the G12 statistic, originally designed for unphased diploid data, can effectively detect selection in aDNA processed to create 'pseudo-haplotypes'. In simulations and at known positive control loci (e.g., lactase persistence), G12 outperforms the allele frequency-based selection statistic, SweepFinder2, previously used on aDNA. Applying our approach, we identified 14 candidate regions of selection across four time periods, with half the signals detectable only in the earliest period. Our findings suggest that selective events in European prehistory, including from the onset of animal domestication, have been obscured by neutral processes like genetic drift and demographic shifts such as admixture.

Ancestral genetic components are consistently associated with the complex trait landscape in European biobanks

The genetic structure in Europe was mostly shaped by admixture between the Western Hunter-Gatherers, Early European Farmers and Steppe Bronze Age ancestral components. Such structure is regarded as a confounder in GWAS and follow-up studies, and gold-standard methods exist to correct for it. However, it is still poorly understood to which extent these ancestral components contribute to complex trait variation in present-day Europe. In this work we harness the UK Biobank to address this question. By extensive demographic simulations, exploiting data on siblings and incorporating previous results we obtained from the Estonian Biobank, we carefully evaluate the significance and scope of our findings. Heart rate, platelet count, bone mineral density and many other traits show stratification similar to height and pigmentation traits, likely targets of selection and divergence across ancestral groups. We show that the reported ancestry-trait associations are not driven by environmental confounders by confirming our results when using between-sibling differences in ancestry. The consistency of our results across biobanks further supports this and indicates that these genetic predispositions that derive from post-Neolithic admixture events act as a source of variability and as potential confounders in Europe as a whole.

Recurrent evolution and selection shape structural diversity at the amylase locus

The adoption of agriculture triggered a rapid shift towards starch-rich diets in human populations1. Amylase genes facilitate starch digestion, and increased amylase copy number has been observed in some modern human populations with high-starch intake2, although evidence of recent selection is lacking3,4. Here, using 94 long-read haplotype-resolved assemblies and short-read data from approximately 5,600 contemporary and ancient humans, we resolve the diversity and evolutionary history of structural variation at the amylase locus. We find that amylase genes have higher copy numbers in agricultural populations than in fishing, hunting and pastoral populations. We identify 28 distinct amylase structural architectures and demonstrate that nearly identical structures have arisen recurrently on different haplotype backgrounds throughout recent human history. AMY1 and AMY2A genes each underwent multiple duplication/deletion events with mutation rates up to more than 10,000-fold the single-nucleotide polymorphism mutation rate, whereas AMY2B gene duplications share a single origin. Using a pangenome-based approach, we infer structural haplotypes across thousands of humans identifying extensively duplicated haplotypes at higher frequency in modern agricultural populations. Leveraging 533 ancient human genomes, we find that duplication-containing haplotypes (with more gene copies than the ancestral haplotype) have rapidly increased in frequency over the past 12,000 years in West Eurasians, suggestive of positive selection. Together, our study highlights the potential effects of the agricultural revolution on human genomes and the importance of structural variation in human adaptation.

Pervasive findings of directional selection realize the promise of ancient DNA to elucidate human adaptation

We present a method for detecting evidence of natural selection in ancient DNA time-series data that leverages an opportunity not utilized in previous scans: testing for a consistent trend in allele frequency change over time. By applying this to 8433 West Eurasians who lived over the past 14000 years and 6510 contemporary people, we find an order of magnitude more genome-wide significant signals than previous studies: 347 independent loci with >99% probability of selection. Previous work showed that classic hard sweeps driving advantageous mutations to fixation have been rare over the broad span of human evolution, but in the last ten millennia, many hundreds of alleles have been affected by strong directional selection. Discoveries include an increase from ~0% to ~20% in 4000 years for the major risk factor for celiac disease at HLA-DQB1; a rise from ~0% to ~8% in 6000 years of blood type B; and fluctuating selection at the TYK2 tuberculosis risk allele rising from ~2% to ~9% from ~5500 to ~3000 years ago before dropping to ~3%. We identify instances of coordinated selection on alleles affecting the same trait, with the polygenic score today predictive of body fat percentage decreasing by around a standard deviation over ten millennia, consistent with the "Thrifty Gene" hypothesis that a genetic predisposition to store energy during food scarcity became disadvantageous after farming. We also identify selection for combinations of alleles that are today associated with lighter skin color, lower risk for schizophrenia and bipolar disease, slower health decline, and increased measures related to cognitive performance (scores on intelligence tests, household income, and years of schooling). These traits are measured in modern industrialized societies, so what phenotypes were adaptive in the past is unclear. We estimate selection coefficients at 9.9 million variants, enabling study of how Darwinian forces couple to allelic effects and shape the genetic architecture of complex traits.

Homozygosity for a stop-gain variant in CCDC201 causes primary ovarian insufficiency

Age at menopause (AOM) has a substantial impact on fertility and disease risk. While many loci with variants that associate with AOM have been identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) under an additive model, other genetic models are rarely considered1. Here through GWAS meta-analysis under the recessive model of 174,329 postmenopausal women from Iceland, Denmark, the United Kingdom (UK; UK Biobank) and Norway, we study low-frequency variants with a large effect on AOM. We discovered that women homozygous for the stop-gain variant rs117316434 (A) in CCDC201 (p.(Arg162Ter), minor allele frequency ~1%) reached menopause 9 years earlier than other women (P = 1.3 × 10-15). The genotype is present in one in 10,000 northern European women and leads to primary ovarian insufficiency in close to half of them. Consequently, homozygotes have fewer children, and the age at last childbirth is 5 years earlier (P = 3.8 × 10-5). The CCDC201 gene was only found in humans in 2022 and is highly expressed in oocytes. Homozygosity for CCDC201 loss-of-function has a substantial impact on female reproductive health, and homozygotes would benefit from reproductive counseling and treatment for symptoms of early menopause.

Testing for differences in polygenic scores in the presence of confounding

Polygenic scores have become an important tool in human genetics, enabling the prediction of individuals' phenotypes from their genotypes. Understanding how the pattern of differences in polygenic score predictions across individuals intersects with variation in ancestry can provide insights into the evolutionary forces acting on the trait in question, and is important for understanding health disparities. However, because most polygenic scores are computed using effect estimates from population samples, they are susceptible to confounding by both genetic and environmental effects that are correlated with ancestry. The extent to which this confounding drives patterns in the distribution of polygenic scores depends on patterns of population structure in both the original estimation panel and in the prediction/test panel. Here, we use theory from population and statistical genetics, together with simulations, to study the procedure of testing for an association between polygenic scores and axes of ancestry variation in the presence of confounding. We use a general model of genetic relatedness to describe how confounding in the estimation panel biases the distribution of polygenic scores in a way that depends on the degree of overlap in population structure between panels. We then show how this confounding can bias tests for associations between polygenic scores and important axes of ancestry variation in the test panel. Specifically, for any given test, there exists a single axis of population structure in the GWAS panel that needs to be controlled for in order to protect the test. Based on this result, we propose a new approach for directly estimating this axis of population structure in the GWAS panel. We then use simulations to compare the performance of this approach to the standard approach in which the principal components of the GWAS panel genotypes are used to control for stratification.

Discovery of runs-of-homozygosity diplotype clusters and their associations with diseases in UK Biobank

Runs-of-homozygosity (ROH) segments, contiguous homozygous regions in a genome were traditionally linked to families and inbred populations. However, a growing literature suggests that ROHs are ubiquitous in outbred populations. Still, most existing genetic studies of ROH in populations are limited to aggregated ROH content across the genome, which does not offer the resolution for mapping causal loci. This limitation is mainly due to a lack of methods for the efficient identification of shared ROH diplotypes. Here, we present a new method, ROH-DICE (runs-of-homozygous diplotype cluster enumerator), to find large ROH diplotype clusters, sufficiently long ROHs shared by a sufficient number of individuals, in large cohorts. ROH-DICE identified over 1 million ROH diplotypes that span over 100 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and are shared by more than 100 UK Biobank participants. Moreover, we found significant associations of clustered ROH diplotypes across the genome with various self-reported diseases, with the strongest associations found between the extended human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region and autoimmune disorders. We found an association between a diplotype covering the homeostatic iron regulator (HFE) gene and hemochromatosis, even though the well-known causal SNP was not directly genotyped or imputed. Using a genome-wide scan, we identified a putative association between carriers of an ROH diplotype in chromosome 4 and an increase in mortality among COVID-19 patients (p-value = 1.82 × 10-11). In summary, our ROH-DICE method, by calling out large ROH diplotypes in a large outbred population, enables further population genetics into the demographic history of large populations. More importantly, our method enables a new genome-wide mapping approach for finding disease-causing loci with multi-marker recessive effects at a population scale.

Reconstructing DNA methylation maps of ancient populations

Studying premortem DNA methylation from ancient DNA (aDNA) provides a proxy for ancient gene activity patterns, and hence valuable information on evolutionary changes in gene regulation. Due to statistical limitations, current methods to reconstruct aDNA methylation maps are constrained to high-coverage shotgun samples, which comprise a small minority of available ancient samples. Most samples are sequenced using in-situ hybridization capture sequencing which targets a predefined set of genomic positions. Here, we develop methods to reconstruct aDNA methylation maps of samples that were not sequenced using high-coverage shotgun sequencing, by way of pooling together individuals to obtain a DNA methylation map that is characteristic of a population. We show that the resulting DNA methylation maps capture meaningful biological information and allow for the detection of differential methylation across populations. We offer guidelines on how to carry out comparative studies involving ancient populations, and how to control the rate of falsely discovered differentially methylated regions. The ability to reconstruct DNA methylation maps of past populations allows for the development of a whole new frontier in paleoepigenetic research, tracing DNA methylation changes throughout human history, using data from thousands of ancient samples.

The contribution of gene flow, selection, and genetic drift to five thousand years of human allele frequency change

Genomic time series from experimental evolution studies and ancient DNA datasets offer us a chance to directly observe the interplay of various evolutionary forces. We show how the genome-wide variance in allele frequency change between two time points can be decomposed into the contributions of gene flow, genetic drift, and linked selection. In closed populations, the contribution of linked selection is identifiable because it creates covariances between time intervals, and genetic drift does not. However, repeated gene flow between populations can also produce directionality in allele frequency change, creating covariances. We show how to accurately separate the fraction of variance in allele frequency change due to admixture and linked selection in a population receiving gene flow. We use two human ancient DNA datasets, spanning around 5,000 y, as time transects to quantify the contributions to the genome-wide variance in allele frequency change. We find that a large fraction of genome-wide change is due to gene flow. In both cases, after correcting for known major gene flow events, we do not observe a signal of genome-wide linked selection. Thus despite the known role of selection in shaping long-term polymorphism levels, and an increasing number of examples of strong selection on single loci and polygenic scores from ancient DNA, it appears to be gene flow and drift, and not selection, that are the main determinants of recent genome-wide allele frequency change. Our approach should be applicable to the growing number of contemporary and ancient temporal population genomics datasets.

The contribution of gene flow, selection, and genetic drift to five thousand years of human allele frequency change

Genomic time series from experimental evolution studies and ancient DNA datasets offer us a chance to directly observe the interplay of various evolutionary forces. We show how the genome-wide variance in allele frequency change between two time points can be decomposed into the contributions of gene flow, genetic drift, and linked selection. In closed populations, the contribution of linked selection is identifiable because it creates covariances between time intervals, and genetic drift does not. However, repeated gene flow between populations can also produce directionality in allele frequency change, creating covariances. We show how to accurately separate the fraction of variance in allele frequency change due to admixture and linked selection in a population receiving gene flow. We use two human ancient DNA datasets, spanning around 5,000 years, as time transects to quantify the contributions to the genome-wide variance in allele frequency change. We find that a large fraction of genome-wide change is due to gene flow. In both cases, after correcting for known major gene flow events, we do not observe a signal of genome-wide linked selection. Thus despite the known role of selection in shaping long-term polymorphism levels, and an increasing number of examples of strong selection on single loci and polygenic scores from ancient DNA, it appears to be gene flow and drift, and not selection, that are the main determinants of recent genome-wide allele frequency change. Our approach should be applicable to the growing number of contemporary and ancient temporal population genomics datasets.

Unveiling recent and ongoing adaptive selection in human populations

Genome-wide scans for signals of selection have become a routine part of the analysis of population genomic variation datasets and have resulted in compelling evidence of selection during recent human evolution. This Essay spotlights methodological innovations that have enabled the detection of selection over very recent timescales, even in contemporary human populations. By harnessing large-scale genomic and phenotypic datasets, these new methods use different strategies to uncover connections between genotype, phenotype, and fitness. This Essay outlines the rationale and key findings of each strategy, discusses challenges in interpretation, and describes opportunities to improve detection and understanding of ongoing selection in human populations.

Understanding natural selection in Holocene Europe using multi-locus genotype identity scans

Ancient DNA (aDNA) has been a revolutionary technology in understanding human history but has not been used extensively to study natural selection as large sample sizes to study allele frequency changes over time have thus far not been available. Here, we examined a time transect of 708 published samples over the past 7,000 years of European history using multi-locus genotype-based selection scans. As aDNA data is affected by high missingness, ascertainment bias, DNA damage, random allele calling, and is unphased, we first validated our selection scan, G 12 a n c i e n t , on simulated data resembling aDNA under a demographic model that captures broad features of the allele frequency spectrum of European genomes as well as positive controls that have been previously identified and functionally validated in modern European datasets on data from ancient individuals from time periods very close to the present time. We then applied our statistic to the aDNA time transect to detect and resolve the timing of natural selection occurring genome wide and found several candidates of selection across the different time periods that had not been picked up by selection scans using single SNP allele frequency approaches. In addition, enrichment analysis discovered multiple categories of complex traits that might be under adaptation across these periods. Our results demonstrate the utility of applying different types of selection scans to aDNA to uncover putative selection signals at loci in the ancient past that might have been masked in modern samples.

Innate Immunity in Cardiovascular Diseases-Identification of Novel Molecular Players and Targets

During the past few years, unexpected developments have driven studies in the field of clinical immunology. One driver of immense impact was the outbreak of a pandemic caused by the novel virus SARS-CoV-2. Excellent recent reviews address diverse aspects of immunological re-search into cardiovascular diseases. Here, we specifically focus on selected studies taking advantage of advanced state-of-the-art molecular genetic methods ranging from genome-wide epi/transcriptome mapping and variant scanning to optogenetics and chemogenetics. First, we discuss the emerging clinical relevance of advanced diagnostics for cardiovascular diseases, including those associated with COVID-19-with a focus on the role of inflammation in cardiomyopathies and arrhythmias. Second, we consider newly identified immunological interactions at organ and system levels which affect cardiovascular pathogenesis. Thus, studies into immune influences arising from the intestinal system are moving towards therapeutic exploitation. Further, powerful new research tools have enabled novel insight into brain-immune system interactions at unprecedented resolution. This latter line of investigation emphasizes the strength of influence of emotional stress-acting through defined brain regions-upon viral and cardiovascular disorders. Several challenges need to be overcome before the full impact of these far-reaching new findings will hit the clinical arena.