Multiple-interaction kinetic modeling of a virtual-item gambling economy

On the Analysis of Wealth Distribution in the Context of Infectious Diseases

A mathematical model is established to investigate the economic effects of infectious diseases. The distribution of wealth among two types of agents in the context of the epidemic is discussed. Using the method of statistical mechanics, the evolution of the entropy weak solutions for the model of the susceptible and the infectious involving wealth density functions is analyzed. We assume that as time tends to infinity, the wealth density function of the infectious is linearly related to the wealth density function of the susceptible individuals. Our results indicate that the spreading of disease significantly affects the wealth distribution. When time tends to infinity, the total wealth density function behaves as an inverse gamma distribution. Utilizing numerical experiments, the distribution of wealth under the epidemic phenomenon and the situation of wealth inequality among agents are discussed.

A Dynamic Probabilistic Model for Heterogeneous Data Fusion: A Pilot Case Study from Computer-Aided Detection of Depression

The present paper, in the framework of a search for a computer-aided method to detect depression, deals with experimental data of various types, with their correlation, and with the way relevant information about depression delivered by different sets of data can be fused to build a unique body of knowledge about individuals' mental states facilitating the diagnosis and its accuracy. To this aim, it suggests the use of a recently introduced «limiting form» of the kinetic-theoretic language, at present widely used to describe complex systems of objects of the most diverse nature. In this connection, the paper mainly aims to show how a wide range of experimental procedures can be described as examples of this «limiting case» and possibly rendered by this description more effective as methods of prediction from experience. In particular, the paper contains a simple, preliminary application of the method to the detection of depression, to show how the consideration of statistical parameters connected with the analysis of speech can modify, at least in a stochastic sense, each diagnosis of depression delivered by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II).

An economically realistic asset exchange model

Despite their highly idealized nature, certain agent-based models of asset exchange, proposed for the most part by physicists and mathematicians, have been shown to exhibit remarkable agreement with empirical wealth distribution data. While this agre- ement is comforting, there is widespread sentiment that further progress will require a detailed under- standing of the connection between these idealized models and the more realistic microeconomic models of exchange used by economists. In this paper, we examine that connection for a three-parameter asset exchange model, the Affine Wealth Model (AWM), that has demonstrated fraction-of-a-per cent agreement with empirical wealth data. We compare certain properties of this model with those of three great milestones of twentieth century economics, namely (i) Expected Utility Theory, (ii) General Equilibrium Theory and (iii) Prospect Theory. We find that the phenomenology exhibited by the AWM is fundamentally incompatible with Expected Utility Theory and General Equilibrium Theory, but very similar to that exhibited by Prospect Theory. Based on these observations, we argue that AWM transactions are, in a particular sense, an approximation to those described by Prospect Theory, and that Prospect Theory provides the sought-for connection between econophysics and microeconomics, at least for the topic of wealth distribution. This article is part of the theme issue 'Kinetic exchange models of societies and economies'.

Wealth distribution under the spread of infectious diseases

We develop a mathematical framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic model of wealth exchange. The multiagent description leads to the study of the evolution over time of a system of kinetic equations for the wealth densities of susceptible, infectious, and recovered individuals, whose proportions are driven by a classical compartmental model in epidemiology. Explicit calculations show that the spread of the disease seriously affects the distribution of wealth, which, unlike the situation in the absence of epidemics, can converge toward a stationary state with a bimodal form. Furthermore, simulations confirm the ability of the model to describe different phenomenon characteristics of economic trends in situations compromised by the rapid spread of an epidemic, such as the unequal impact on the various wealth classes and the risk of a shrinking middle class.

Online Gambling of Pure Chance: Wager Distribution, Risk Attitude, and Anomalous Diffusion

Online gambling sites offer many different gambling games. In this work we analyse the gambling logs of numerous solely probability-based gambling games and extract the wager and odds distributions. We find that the log-normal distribution describes the wager distribution at the aggregate level. Viewing the gamblers’ net incomes as random walks, we study the mean-squared displacement of net income and related quantities and find different diffusive behaviors for different games. We discuss possible origins for the observed anomalous diffusion.