Large deviations of a random walk model with emerging territories

First-passage area distribution and optimal fluctuations of fractional Brownian motion

We study the probability distribution P(A) of the area A=∫_{0}^{T}x(t)dt swept under fractional Brownian motion (fBm) x(t) until its first passage time T to the origin. The process starts at t=0 from a specified point x=L. We show that P(A) obeys exact scaling relation P(A)=D^{1/2H}/L^{1+1/H}Φ_{H}(D^{1/2H}A/L^{1+1/H}), where 0 Collapse

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Affiliation(s)

Alexander K Hartmann Institut für Physik, Universitåt Oldenburg - 26111 Oldenburg, Germany
Baruch Meerson Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91904, Israel

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Large-deviations of disease spreading dynamics with vaccination

We numerically simulated the spread of disease for a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model on contact networks drawn from a small-world ensemble. We investigated the impact of two types of vaccination strategies, namely random vaccination and high-degree heuristics, on the probability density function (pdf) of the cumulative number C of infected people over a large range of its support. To obtain the pdf even in the range of probabilities as small as 10-80, we applied a large-deviation approach, in particular the 1/t Wang-Landau algorithm. To study the size-dependence of the pdfs within the framework of large-deviation theory, we analyzed the empirical rate function. To find out how typical as well as extreme mild or extreme severe infection courses arise, we investigated the structures of the time series conditioned to the observed values of C.