Dynamic hidden-variable network models

(ω_{1},ω_{2})-temporal random hyperbolic graphs

We extend a recent model of temporal random hyperbolic graphs by allowing connections and disconnections to persist across network snapshots with different probabilities ω_{1} and ω_{2}. This extension, while conceptually simple, poses analytical challenges involving the Appell F_{1} series. Despite these challenges, we are able to analyze key properties of the model, which include the distributions of contact and intercontact durations, as well as the expected time-aggregated degree. The incorporation of ω_{1} and ω_{2} enables more flexible tuning of the average contact and intercontact durations, and of the average time-aggregated degree, providing a finer control for exploring the effect of temporal network dynamics on dynamical processes. Overall, our results provide new insights into the analysis of temporal networks and contribute to a more general representation of real-world scenarios.

On null models for temporal small-worldness in brain dynamics

Brain dynamics can be modeled as a temporal brain network starting from the activity of different brain regions in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) signals. When validating hypotheses about temporal networks, it is important to use an appropriate statistical null model that shares some features with the treated empirical data. The purpose of this work is to contribute to the theory of temporal null models for brain networks by introducing the random temporal hyperbolic (RTH) graph model, an extension of the random hyperbolic (RH) graph, known in the study of complex networks for its ability to reproduce crucial properties of real-world networks. We focus on temporal small-worldness which, in the static case, has been extensively studied in real-world complex networks and has been linked to the ability of brain networks to efficiently exchange information. We compare the RTH graph model with standard null models for temporal networks and show it is the null model that best reproduces the small-worldness of resting brain activity. This ability to reproduce fundamental features of real brain networks, while adding only a single parameter compared with classical models, suggests that the RTH graph model is a promising tool for validating hypotheses about temporal brain networks.

Percolation and Topological Properties of Temporal Higher-Order Networks

Many complex systems that exhibit temporal nonpairwise interactions can be represented by means of generative higher-order network models. Here, we propose a hidden variable formalism to analytically characterize a general class of higher-order network models. We apply our framework to a temporal higher-order activity-driven model, providing analytical expressions for the main topological properties of the time-integrated hypergraphs, depending on the integration time and the activity distributions characterizing the model. Furthermore, we provide analytical estimates for the percolation times of general classes of uncorrelated and correlated hypergraphs. Finally, we quantify the extent to which the percolation time of empirical social interactions is underestimated when their higher-order nature is neglected.

Dynamics of cold random hyperbolic graphs with link persistence

We consider and analyze a dynamic model of random hyperbolic graphs with link persistence. In the model, both connections and disconnections can be propagated from the current to the next snapshot with probability ω∈[0,1). Otherwise, with probability 1-ω, connections are reestablished according to the random hyperbolic graphs model. We show that while the persistence probability ω affects the averages of the contact and intercontact distributions, it does not affect the tails of these distributions, which decay as power laws with exponents that do not depend on ω. We also consider examples of real temporal networks, and we show that the considered model can adequately reproduce several of their dynamical properties. Our results advance our understanding of the realistic modeling of temporal networks and of the effects of link persistence on temporal network properties.

Anatomy of digital contact tracing: Role of age, transmission setting, adoption, and case detection

The efficacy of digital contact tracing against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic is debated: Smartphone penetration is limited in many countries, with low coverage among the elderly, the most vulnerable to COVID-19. We developed an agent-based model to precise the impact of digital contact tracing and household isolation on COVID-19 transmission. The model, calibrated on French population, integrates demographic, contact and epidemiological information to describe exposure and transmission of COVID-19. We explored realistic levels of case detection, app adoption, population immunity, and transmissibility. Assuming a reproductive ratio R = 2.6 and 50% detection of clinical cases, a ~20% app adoption reduces peak incidence by ~35%. With R = 1.7, >30% app adoption lowers the epidemic to manageable levels. Higher coverage among adults, playing a central role in COVID-19 transmission, yields an indirect benefit for the elderly. These results may inform the inclusion of digital contact tracing within a COVID-19 response plan.