Corrections to scaling in the forest-fire model

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990–2006) and former British India (1882–1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

Earthquake size-frequency statistics in a forest-fire model of individual faults

The earthquake size-frequency distribution of individual seismic faults commonly differs from the Gutenberg-Richter law of regional seismicity by the presence of an excess of large earthquakes. Here we present a cellular automaton of the forest-fire model type that is able to reproduce several size-frequency distributions depending on the number and location of asperities on the fault plane. The model describes a fault plane as a two-dimensional array of cells where each cell can be either a normal site or a trigger site. Earthquakes start on trigger sites. Asperities appear as the dual entities of the trigger sites. We study the effect that the number and distribution of asperities (the dual of the set of trigger sites), the earthquake rate, and the aspect ratio of the fault have on the size-frequency distribution. Size-frequency distributions have been grouped into subcritical, critical, and supercritical, and the relationship between the model parameters and these three kinds of distributions is presented in the form of phase maps for each of the five asperity types tested. We also study the connection between the model parameters and the aperiodicity of the large earthquakes. For this purpose the concept of aperiodicity spectrum is introduced. The aperiodicity in the recurrence of the large earthquakes in a fault shows an interesting variability that can be potentially useful for prediction purposes.

Effects of bulk dissipation on the critical exponents of a sandpile

Bulk dissipation of a sandpile on a square lattice with the periodic boundary condition is investigated through a dissipating probability f during each toppling process. We find that the power-law behavior is broken for f>10(-1) and not evident for 10(-1)}>f>10(-2). In the range 10(-2)>or=f>or=10(-5), numerical simulations for the toppling size exponents of all, dissipative, and last waves have been studied. Two kinds of definitions for exponents are considered: the exponents obtained from the direct fitting of data and the exponents defined by the simple scaling. Our result shows that the exponents from these two definitions may be different. Furthermore, we propose analytic expressions of the exponents for the direct fitting, and it is consistent with the numerical result. Finally, we point out that small dissipation drives the behavior of this model toward the simple scaling.

Finite driving rate and anisotropy effects in landslide modeling

In order to characterize landslide frequency-size distributions and individuate hazard scenarios and their possible precursors, we investigate a cellular automaton where the effects of a finite driving rate and the anisotropy are taken into account. The model is able to reproduce observed features of landslide events, such as power-law distributions, as experimentally reported. We analyze the key role of the driving rate and show that, as it is increased, a crossover from power-law to non-power-law behaviors occurs. Finally, a systematic investigation of the model on varying its anisotropy factors is performed and the full diagram of its dynamical behaviors is presented.

Mean wind and its reversal in thermal convection

Properties of the mean wind in thermal convection, especially the abrupt reversal of its direction at high Rayleigh numbers, are studied. Measurements made in a closed cylindrical container of aspect ratio 1 are analyzed, and both the long-term and short-term behaviors of the direction reversals are discussed. A first look at the data suggests a Brownian-type process in action, but a closer look suggests the existence of hierarchical features with time scales extending roughly over a decade and a half. A physical model consistent with experimental observations is presented, and the origin of the cutoff scales is discussed. It appears that the generation of the wind as well as the reversal of its direction can be understood in terms of the imbalance between buoyancy effects and friction.

Self-organized critical forest-fire model on large scales

We discuss the scaling behavior of the self-organized critical forest-fire model on large length scales. As indicated in earlier publications, the forest-fire model does not show conventional critical scaling, but has two qualitatively different types of fires that superimpose to give the effective exponents typically measured in simulations. We show that this explains not only why the exponent characterizing the fire-size distribution changes with increasing correlation length, but allows us also to predict its asymptotic value. We support our arguments by computer simulations of a coarse-grained model, by scaling arguments and by analyzing states that are created artificially by superimposing the two types of fires.

Scaling in a nonconservative earthquake model of self-organized criticality

We numerically investigate the Olami-Feder-Christensen model for earthquakes in order to characterize its scaling behavior. We show that ordinary finite size scaling in the model is violated due to global, system wide events. Nevertheless we find that subsystems of linear dimension small compared to the overall system size obey finite (subsystem) size scaling, with universal critical coefficients, for the earthquake events localized within the subsystem. We provide evidence, moreover, that large earthquakes responsible for breaking finite-size scaling are initiated predominantly near the boundary.