Statistics of multiple sign changes in a discrete non-Markovian sequence

Persistence of non-Markovian Gaussian stationary processes in discrete time

The persistence of a stochastic variable is the probability that it does not cross a given level during a fixed time interval. Although persistence is a simple concept to understand, it is in general hard to calculate. Here we consider zero mean Gaussian stationary processes in discrete time n. Few results are known for the persistence P_{0}(n) in discrete time, except the large time behavior which is characterized by the nontrivial constant θ through P_{0}(n)∼θ^{n}. Using a modified version of the independent interval approximation (IIA) that we developed before, we are able to calculate P_{0}(n) analytically in z-transform space in terms of the autocorrelation function A(n). If A(n)→0 as n→∞, we extract θ numerically, while if A(n)=0, for finite n>N, we find θ exactly (within the IIA). We apply our results to three special cases: the nearest-neighbor-correlated "first order moving average process", where A(n)=0 for n>1, the double exponential-correlated "second order autoregressive process", where A(n)=c_{1}λ_{1}^{n}+c_{2}λ_{2}^{n}, and power-law-correlated variables, where A(n)∼n^{-μ}. Apart from the power-law case when μ<5, we find excellent agreement with simulations.

Zero-crossing statistics for non-Markovian time series

In applications spanning from image analysis and speech recognition to energy dissipation in turbulence and time-to failure of fatigued materials, researchers and engineers want to calculate how often a stochastic observable crosses a specific level, such as zero. At first glance this problem looks simple, but it is in fact theoretically very challenging, and therefore few exact results exist. One exception is the celebrated Rice formula that gives the mean number of zero crossings in a fixed time interval of a zero-mean Gaussian stationary process. In this study we use the so-called independent interval approximation to go beyond Rice's result and derive analytic expressions for all higher-order zero-crossing cumulants and moments. Our results agree well with simulations for the non-Markovian autoregressive model.

Statistics of the number of minima in a random energy landscape

We consider random energy landscapes constructed from d -dimensional lattices or trees. The distribution of the number of local minima in such landscapes follows a large-deviation principle and we derive the associated law exactly for dimension 1. Also of interest is the probability of the maximum possible number of minima; this probability scales exponentially with the number of sites. We calculate analytically the corresponding exponent for the Cayley tree and the two-leg ladder; for two- to five-dimensional hypercubic lattices, we compute the exponent numerically and compare to the Cayley tree case.

Persistence exponents and the statistics of crossings and occupation times for Gaussian stationary processes

We consider the persistence probability, the occupation-time distribution, and the distribution of the number of zero crossings for discrete or (equivalently) discretely sampled Gaussian stationary processes (GSPs) of zero mean. We first consider the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, finding expressions for the mean and variance of the number of crossings and the "partial survival" probability. We then elaborate on the correlator expansion developed in an earlier paper [G. C. M. A. Ehrhardt and A. J. Bray, Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 070602 (2002)] to calculate discretely sampled persistence exponents of GSPs of known correlator by means of a series expansion in the correlator. We apply this method to the processes d(n)x/dt(n)=eta(t) with n>/=3, incorporating an extrapolation of the series to the limit of continuous sampling. We then extend the correlator method to calculate the occupation-time and crossing-number distributions, as well as their partial-survival distributions and the means and variances of the occupation time and number of crossings. We apply these general methods to the d(n)x/dt(n)=eta(t) processes for n=1 (random walk), n=2 (random acceleration), and larger n, and to simple diffusion from random initial conditions in one to three dimensions. The results for discrete sampling are extrapolated to the continuum limit where possible.

Exact occupation time distribution in a non-Markovian sequence and its relation to spin glass models

We compute exactly the distribution of the occupation time in a discrete non-Markovian toy sequence that appears in various physical contexts such as the diffusion processes and Ising spin glass chains. The non-Markovian property makes the results nontrivial even for this toy sequence. The distribution is shown to have non-Gaussian tails characterized by a nontrivial large deviation function that is computed explicitly. An exact mapping of this sequence to an Ising spin glass chain via a gauge transformation raises an interesting question for a generic finite sized spin glass model; at a given temperature, what is the distribution (over disorder) of the thermally averaged number of spins that are aligned to their local fields? We show that this distribution remains nontrivial even at infinite temperature and can be computed explicitly in few cases such as in the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model with Gaussian disorder.