Broken scaling in the forest-fire model

Finite-Size Scaling at the Edge of Disorder in a Time-Delay Vicsek Model

Living many-body systems often exhibit scale-free collective behavior reminiscent of thermal critical phenomena. But their mutual interactions are inevitably retarded due to information processing and delayed actuation. We numerically investigate the consequences for the finite-size scaling in the Vicsek model of motile active matter. A growing delay time initially facilitates but ultimately impedes collective ordering and turns the dynamical scaling from diffusive to ballistic. It provides an alternative explanation of swarm traits previously attributed to inertia.

Self-organized multistability in the forest fire model

The forest fire model in statistical physics represents a paradigm for systems close to but not completely at criticality. For large tree growth probabilities p we identify periodic attractors, where the tree density ρ oscillates between discrete values. For lower p this self-organized multistability persists with incrementing numbers of states. Even at low p the system remains quasiperiodic with a frequency ≈p on the way to chaos. In addition, the power-spectrum shows 1/f^{2} scaling (Brownian noise) at the low frequencies f, which turns into white noise for very long simulation times.

Evolving power grids with self-organized intermittent strain releases: An analogy with sandpile models and earthquakes

The stability of powergrid is crucial since its disruption affects systems ranging from street lightings to hospital life-support systems. While short-term dynamics of single-event cascading failures have been extensively studied, less is understood on the long-term evolution and self-organization of powergrids. In this paper, we introduce a simple model of evolving powergrid and establish its connection with the sandpile model and earthquakes, i.e., self-organized systems with intermittent strain releases. Various aspects during its self-organization are examined, including blackout magnitudes, their interevent waiting time, the predictability of large blackouts, as well as the spatiotemporal rescaling of blackout data. We examined the self-organized strain releases on simulated networks as well as the IEEE 118-bus system, and we show that both simulated and empirical blackout waiting times can be rescaled in space and time similarly to those observed between earthquakes. Finally, we suggested proactive maintenance strategies to drive the powergrids away from self-organization to suppress large blackouts.

Forest-fire model as a supercritical dynamic model in financial systems

Recently large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that some extreme events systematically deviate from the SOC paradigm, requiring a different theoretical framework. We shed additional theoretical light on this possibility by studying financial crisis. We build our model of financial crisis on the well-known forest fire model in scale-free networks. Our analysis shows a nontrivial scaling feature indicating supercritical behavior, which is independent of system size. Extreme events in the supercritical state result from bursting of a fat bubble, seeds of which are sown by a protracted period of a benign financial environment with few shocks. Our findings suggest that policymakers can control the magnitude of financial meltdowns by keeping the economy operating within reasonable duration of a benign environment.

Forest-fire analogy to explain the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquakes

The Drössel-Schwabl model of forest fires can be interpreted in a coarse-grained sense as a model for the stress distribution in a single planar fault. Fires in the model are then translated to earthquakes. I show that when a second class of trees that propagate fire only after some finite time is introduced in the model, secondary fires (analogous to aftershocks) are generated, and the statistics of events becomes quantitatively compatible with the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquakes, with a realistic value of the b exponent. The change in exponent is analytically demonstrated in a simplified percolation scenario. Experimental consequences of the proposed mechanism are indicated.

Age distribution of trees in stationary forest system

A statistical theory for the age distribution of spatially dominant trees in a stationary forest system is developed. The result depends whether or not mortality is spatially correlated, as well as whether or not the stand boundaries are pre-determined. In the case of spatially non-correlated mortality, the tree age distribution is an exponential with survival rate as the base. In the case of spatially correlated mortality within a stand with pre-determined boundaries, the age distribution within the stand is an exponential with natural base. For a small stand, the median life span of the stand is inversely proportional to the number of trees (n); the median life span in relation to stand closure time is inversely proportional to nln(n). For a large stand, the stand life does not extend to the closure time. The behaviour of a forest system without fixed stand boundaries depends on the dimensionality of the system. In the case of a one-dimensional system, the longevity distribution is exponential, most of the trees however having the same longevity. Consequently, the probability density of tree age is constant. However, the probability mass of size of catastrophe destroying a particular tree is evenly distributed. This is due to trees being rapidly born on empty areas in the beginning of the life cycle, and clusters rapidly growing into larger ones close to the end of tree life.

Influence of the driving rate in a two-dimensional rice pile model

We study the influence of the driving rate in the two-dimensional Oslo rice pile model. We find that the usual power-law behavior of the avalanche size distribution still holds for small avalanches, independent of the driving rate. The signature of fast driving is, however, the increase of the incidence rate of large avalanches. For larger driving rates, this increase is more prominent and spreads to smaller avalanche sizes. As a result, the mass flow due to large avalanches is increased much more than would be expected from an increase in driving rate alone. Fast driving leads to a dramatic increase in devastating avalanches, just before the continuous flow regime is reached.

Hydra molecular network reaches criticality at the symmetry-breaking axis-defining moment

We study biological, multicellular symmetry breaking on a hollow cell sphere as it occurs during hydra regeneration from a random cell aggregate. We show that even a weak temperature gradient directs the axis of the regenerating animal--but only if it is applied during the symmetry-breaking moment. We observe that the spatial distribution of the early expressed, head-specific gene ks1 has become scale-free and fractal at that point. We suggest the self-organized critical state to reflect long range signaling, which is required for axis definition and arises from cell next-neighbor communication.

Oslo rice pile model is a quenched Edwards-Wilkinson equation

The Oslo rice pile model is a sandpile-like paradigmatic model of self-organized criticality (SOC). In this paper it is shown that the Oslo model is in fact exactly a discrete realization of the much studied quenched Edwards-Wilkinson equation (qEW) [Nattermann et al., J. Phys. II France 2, 1483 (1992)]. This is possible by choosing the correct dynamical variable and identifying its equation of motion. It establishes for the first time an exact link between SOC models and the field of interface growth with quenched disorder. This connection is obviously very encouraging as it suggests that established theoretical techniques can be brought to bear with full strength on some of the hitherto elusive problems of SOC.

Synchronization and coarsening (without self-organized criticality) in a forest-fire model

We study the long-time dynamics of a forest-fire model with deterministic tree growth and instantaneous burning of entire forests by stochastic lightning strikes. Asymptotically the system organizes into a coarsening self-similar mosaic of synchronized patches within which trees regrow and burn simultaneously. We show that the average patch length <L> grows linearly with time as t--> infinity. The number density of patches of length L, N(L,t), scales as <L>-2N(L/<L>), and within a mean-field rate equation description we find that this scaling function decays as N(x) approximately e(-1/x) for x-->0, and as e(-x) for x--> infinity. In one dimension, we develop an event-driven cluster algorithm to study the asymptotic behavior of large systems. Our numerical results are consistent with mean-field predictions for patch coarsening.