Rain: relaxations in the sky

Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian oscillation after about 27 days

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a tropical weather system that has an important influence in the tropics and beyond; however, many of its characteristics are poorly understood, including their initiation and termination. Here we define Madden-Julian events as contiguous time periods with an active MJO, and we show that both the durations and the sizes of these events are well described by a double power-law distribution. Thus, small events have no characteristic scale, and the same for large events; nevertheless, both types of events are separated by a characteristic duration of about 27 days (this corresponds to half a cycle, roughly). Thus, after 27 days, there is a sharp increase in the probability that an event becomes extinct. We find that this effect is independent of the starting and ending phases of the events, which seems to point to an internal mechanism of exhaustion rather than to the effect of an external barrier. Our results would imply an important limitation of the MJO as a driver of subseasonal predictability.

Non-orbital characterizations of strange attractors: Effective intervals and multifractality measures

Numerical simulations reveal statistical distributions given by power laws resulting from movements of large quantities of phase points captured by strange attractors immersed in one-dimensional or two-dimensional phase spaces, attractors linked to ten specific dynamic systems. Unlike the characterization given by classical approaches as generalized dimensions and spectrum of singularities, the aforementioned distributions do not have their origin in observations of successive orbits, as consequence properties that would otherwise remain hidden are revealed. Specifically, occupancy times and occupancy numbers associated with small hypercubes that cover attractors obey well-defined statistical distributions given by power laws. One application concerns the determination of the intervals in which the most likely values of those numbers and times are located (effective intervals). The use of the effective interval with occupancy numbers to quantify the multifractalities (multifractality measures) is another application. The statistical approaches underlying the results consist of new paradigms that join the well-known classic paradigms to expand knowledge about strange attractors. The possibility that other attractors immersed in spaces with the same dimensions as those considered here exhibit analogous distributions is not ruled out due to the arbitrariness of the set taken.

Development and regression of a large fluctuation

We study the evolution leading to (or regressing from) a large fluctuation in a statistical mechanical system. We introduce and study analytically a simple model of many identically and independently distributed microscopic variables n_{m} (m=1,M) evolving by means of a master equation. We show that the process producing a nontypical fluctuation with a value of N=∑_{m=1}^{M}n_{m} well above the average 〈N〉 is slow. Such process is characterized by the power-law growth of the largest possible observable value of N at a given time t. We find similar features also for the reverse process of the regression from a rare state with N≫〈N〉 to a typical one with N≃〈N〉.

Testing universality in critical exponents: The case of rainfall

One of the key clues to consider rainfall as a self-organized critical phenomenon is the existence of power-law distributions for rain-event sizes. We have studied the problem of universality in the exponents of these distributions by means of a suitable statistic whose distribution is inferred by several variations of a permutational test. In contrast to more common approaches, our procedure does not suffer from the difficulties of multiple testing and does not require the precise knowledge of the uncertainties associated to the power-law exponents. When applied to seven sites monitored by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program the tests lead to the rejection of the universality hypothesis, despite the fact that the exponents are rather close to each other. We discuss the reasons of the rejection.

A new modelling framework for statistical cumulus dynamics

We propose a new modelling framework suitable for the description of atmospheric convective systems as a collection of distinct plumes. The literature contains many examples of models for collections of plumes in which strong simplifying assumptions are made, a diagnostic dependence of convection on the large-scale environment and the limit of many plumes often being imposed from the outset. Some recent studies have sought to remove one or the other of those assumptions. The proposed framework removes both, and is explicitly time dependent and stochastic in its basic character. The statistical dynamics of the plume collection are defined through simple probabilistic rules applied at the level of individual plumes, and van Kampen's system size expansion is then used to construct the macroscopic limit of the microscopic model. Through suitable choices of the microscopic rules, the model is shown to encompass previous studies in the appropriate limits, and to allow their natural extensions beyond those limits.

Escape from attracting sets in randomly perturbed systems

The dynamics of escape from an attractive state due to random perturbations is of central interest to many areas in science. Previous studies of escape in chaotic systems have rather focused on the case of unbounded noise, usually assumed to have Gaussian distribution. In this paper, we address the problem of escape induced by bounded noise. We show that the dynamics of escape from an attractor's basin is equivalent to that of a closed system with an appropriately chosen "hole." Using this equivalence, we show that there is a minimum noise amplitude above which escape takes place, and we derive analytical expressions for the scaling of the escape rate with noise amplitude near the escape transition. We verify our analytical predictions through numerical simulations of two well-known two-dimensional maps with noise.

Emerging attractors and the transition from dissipative to conservative dynamics

The topological structure of basin boundaries plays a fundamental role in the sensitivity to the final state in chaotic dynamical systems. Herewith we present a study on the dynamics of dissipative systems close to the Hamiltonian limit, emphasizing the increasing number of periodic attractors, and on the structural changes in their basin boundaries as the dissipation approaches zero. We show numerically that a power law with nontrivial exponent describes the growth of the total number of periodic attractors as the damping is decreased. We also establish that for small scales the dynamics is governed by effective dynamical invariants, whose measure depends not only on the region of the phase space but also on the scale under consideration. Therefore, our results show that the concept of effective invariants is also relevant for dissipative systems.

Avalanche dynamics, surface roughening, and self-organized criticality: Experiments on a three-dimensional pile of rice

We present a two-dimensional system that exhibits features of self-organized criticality. The avalanches that occur on the surface of a pile of rice are found to exhibit finite size scaling in their probability distribution. The critical exponents are tau=1.21(2) for the avalanche size distribution and D=1.99(2) for the cutoff size. Furthermore, the geometry of the avalanches is studied, leading to a fractal dimension of the active sites of d(B)=1.58(2). Using a set of scaling relations, we can calculate the roughness exponent alpha=D-d(B)=0.41(3) and the dynamic exponent z=D(2-tau)=1.56(8). This result is compared with that obtained from a power-spectrum analysis of the surface roughness, which yields alpha=0.42(3) and z=1.5(1) in excellent agreement with those obtained from the scaling relations.

Rain, power laws, and advection

Localized rain events have been found to follow power-law size and duration distributions over several decades, suggesting parallels between precipitation and seismic activity [O. Peters, Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 018701 (2002)]]. Similar power laws are generated by treating rain as a passive tracer undergoing advection in a velocity field generated by a two-dimensional system of point vortices.

Statistical mechanics in the context of special relativity

In Ref. [Physica A 296, 405 (2001)], starting from the one parameter deformation of the exponential function exp(kappa)(x)=(sqrt[1+kappa(2)x(2)]+kappax)(1/kappa), a statistical mechanics has been constructed which reduces to the ordinary Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical mechanics as the deformation parameter kappa approaches to zero. The distribution f=exp(kappa)(-beta E+betamu) obtained within this statistical mechanics shows a power law tail and depends on the nonspecified parameter beta, containing all the information about the temperature of the system. On the other hand, the entropic form S(kappa)= integral d(3)p(c(kappa) f(1+kappa)+c(-kappa) f(1-kappa)), which after maximization produces the distribution f and reduces to the standard Boltzmann-Shannon entropy S0 as kappa-->0, contains the coefficient c(kappa) whose expression involves, beside the Boltzmann constant, another nonspecified parameter alpha. In the present effort we show that S(kappa) is the unique existing entropy obtained by a continuous deformation of S0 and preserving unaltered its fundamental properties of concavity, additivity, and extensivity. These properties of S(kappa) permit to determine unequivocally the values of the above mentioned parameters beta and alpha. Subsequently, we explain the origin of the deformation mechanism introduced by kappa and show that this deformation emerges naturally within the Einstein special relativity. Furthermore, we extend the theory in order to treat statistical systems in a time dependent and relativistic context. Then, we show that it is possible to determine in a self consistent scheme within the special relativity the values of the free parameter kappa which results to depend on the light speed c and reduces to zero as c--> infinity recovering in this way the ordinary statistical mechanics and thermodynamics. The statistical mechanics here presented, does not contain free parameters, preserves unaltered the mathematical and epistemological structure of the ordinary statistical mechanics and is suitable to describe a very large class of experimentally observed phenomena in low and high energy physics and in natural, economic, and social sciences. Finally, in order to test the correctness and predictability of the theory, as working example we consider the cosmic rays spectrum, which spans 13 decades in energy and 33 decades in flux, finding a high quality agreement between our predictions and observed data.