Phase transitions to cooperation in the prisoner's dilemma

Effect of homophily on coupled behavior-disease dynamics near a tipping point

Understanding the interplay between social activities and disease dynamics is crucial for effective public health interventions. Recent studies using coupled behavior-disease models assumed homogeneous populations. However, heterogeneity in population, such as different social groups, cannot be ignored. In this study, we divided the population into social media users and non-users, and investigated the impact of homophily (the tendency for individuals to associate with others similar to themselves) and online events on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that homophily hinders the adoption of vaccinating strategies, hastening the approach to a tipping point after which the population converges to an endemic equilibrium with no vaccine uptake. Furthermore, we find that online events can significantly influence disease dynamics, with early discussions on social media platforms serving as an early warning signal of potential disease outbreaks. Our model provides insights into the mechanisms underlying these phenomena and underscores the importance of considering homophily in disease modeling and public health strategies.

Emotions and courtship help bonded pairs cooperate, but emotional agents are vulnerable to deceit

Coordinated pair bonds are common in birds and also occur in many other taxa. How do animals solve the social dilemmas they face in coordinating with a partner? We developed an evolutionary model to explore this question, based on observations that a) neuroendocrine feedback provides emotional bookkeeping which is thought to play a key role in vertebrate social bonds and b) these bonds are developed and maintained via courtship interactions that include low-stakes social dilemmas. Using agent-based simulation, we found that emotional bookkeeping and courtship sustained cooperation in the iterated prisoner's dilemma in noisy environments, especially when combined. However, when deceitful defection was possible at low cost, courtship often increased cooperation, whereas emotional bookkeeping decreased it.

Polymorphism in rapidly changing cyclic environment

Selection in a time-periodic environment is modeled via the continuous-time two-player replicator dynamics, which for symmetric payoffs reduces to the Fisher equation of mathematical genetics. For a sufficiently rapid and cyclic (fine-grained) environment, the time-averaged population frequencies are shown to obey a replicator dynamics with a nonlinear fitness that is induced by environmental changes. The nonlinear terms in the fitness emerge due to populations tracking their time-dependent environment. These terms can induce a stable polymorphism, though they do not spoil the polymorphism that exists already without them. In this sense polymorphic populations are more robust with respect to their time-dependent environments. The overall fitness of the problem is still given by its time-averaged value, but the emergence of polymorphism during genetic selection can be accompanied by decreasing mean fitness of the population. The impact of the uncovered polymorphism scenario on the models of diversity is exemplified via the rock-paper-scissors dynamics, and also via the prisoner's dilemma in a time-periodic environment.

Opinion formation on dynamic networks: identifying conditions for the emergence of partisan echo chambers

Modern political interaction is characterized by strong partisanship and a lack of interest in information sharing and agreement across party lines. It remains largely unclear how such partisan echo chambers arise and how they coevolve with opinion formation. Here, we explore the emergence of these structures through the lens of coevolutionary games. In our model, the payoff of an individual is determined jointly by the magnitude of their opinion, their degree of conformity with their social neighbours and the benefit of having social connections. Each individual can simultaneously adjust their opinion and the weights of their social connections. We present and validate the conditions for the emergence of partisan echo chambers, characterizing the transition from cohesive communities with a consensus to divisive networks with splitting opinions. Moreover, we apply our model to voting records of the US House of Representatives over a timespan of decades to understand the influence of underlying psychological and social factors on increasing partisanship in recent years. Our work helps elucidate how the division of today has come to be and how cohesion and unity could otherwise be attained on a variety of political and social issues.

The influence of social norms on the dynamics of vaccinating behaviour for paediatric infectious diseases

Mathematical models that couple disease dynamics and vaccinating behaviour often assume that the incentive to vaccinate disappears if disease prevalence is zero. Hence, they predict that vaccine refusal should be the rule, and elimination should be difficult or impossible. In reality, countries with non-mandatory vaccination policies have usually been able to maintain elimination or very low incidence of paediatric infectious diseases for long periods of time. Here, we show that including injunctive social norms can reconcile such behaviour-incidence models to observations. Adding social norms to a coupled behaviour-incidence model enables the model to better explain pertussis vaccine uptake and disease dynamics in the UK from 1967 to 2010, in both the vaccine-scare years and the years of high vaccine coverage. The model also illustrates how a vaccine scare can perpetuate suboptimal vaccine coverage long after perceived risk has returned to baseline, pre-vaccine-scare levels. However, at other model parameter values, social norms can perpetuate depressed vaccine coverage during a vaccine scare well beyond the time when the population's baseline vaccine risk perception returns to pre-scare levels. Social norms can strongly suppress vaccine uptake despite frequent outbreaks, as observed in some small communities. Significant portions of the parameter space also exhibit bistability, meaning long-term outcomes depend on the initial conditions. Depending on the context, social norms can either support or hinder immunization goals.

Patient and impatient pedestrians in a spatial game for egress congestion

Large crowds evacuating through narrow bottlenecks may create clogging and jams that slow down the egress flow. Especially if people try to push towards the exit, the so-called faster-is-slower effect may occur. We propose a spatial game to model the interaction of agents in such situations. Each agent has two possible modes of play that lead to either patient or impatient behavior. The payoffs of the game are derived from simple assumptions and correspond to a hawk-dove game, where the game parameters depend on the agent's location in the crowd and on external conditions. Equilibrium configurations are computed with a myopic best-response rule and studied in both a continuous space and a discrete lattice. We apply the game model to a continuous-time egress simulation, where the patient and impatient agents are given different individual parameter values, which are updated according to the local conditions in the crowd. The model shows how threatening conditions can increase the proportion of impatient agents, which leads to clogging and reduced flows through bottlenecks, even when smooth flows would be possible.

Challenges in Economics

In the same way as the Hilbert Program was a response to the foundational crisis of mathematics [1], this article tries to formulate a research program for the socio-economic sciences. The aim of this contribution is to stimulate research in order to close serious knowledge gaps in mainstream economics that the recent financial and economic crisis has revealed. By identifying weak points of conventional approaches in economics, we identify the scientific problems which need to be addressed. We expect that solving these questions will bring scientists in a position to give better decision support and policy advice. We also indicate, what kinds of insights can be contributed by scientists from other research fields such as physics, biology, computer and social science. In order to make a quick progress and gain a systemic understanding of the whole interconnected socio-economic-environmental system, using the data, information and computer systems available today and in the near future, we suggest a multi-disciplinary collaboration as most promising research approach.

Cooperation, norms, and revolutions: a unified game-theoretical approach

Background

Cooperation is of utmost importance to society as a whole, but is often challenged by individual self-interests. While game theory has studied this problem extensively, there is little work on interactions within and across groups with different preferences or beliefs. Yet, people from different social or cultural backgrounds often meet and interact. This can yield conflict, since behavior that is considered cooperative by one population might be perceived as non-cooperative from the viewpoint of another.

Methodology and Principal Findings

To understand the dynamics and outcome of the competitive interactions within and between groups, we study game-dynamical replicator equations for multiple populations with incompatible interests and different power (be this due to different population sizes, material resources, social capital, or other factors). These equations allow us to address various important questions: For example, can cooperation in the prisoner's dilemma be promoted, when two interacting groups have different preferences? Under what conditions can costly punishment, or other mechanisms, foster the evolution of norms? When does cooperation fail, leading to antagonistic behavior, conflict, or even revolutions? And what incentives are needed to reach peaceful agreements between groups with conflicting interests?

Conclusions and Significance

Our detailed quantitative analysis reveals a large variety of interesting results, which are relevant for society, law and economics, and have implications for the evolution of language and culture as well.