Analytical calculation of fragmentation transitions in adaptive networks

Tale of two emergent games: Opinion dynamics in dynamical directed networks

Unidirectional social interactions are ubiquitous in real social networks whereas undirected interactions are intensively studied. We establish a voter model in a dynamical directed network. We analytically obtain the degree distribution of the evolving network at any given time. Furthermore, we find that the average degree is captured by an emergent game. However, we find that the fate of opinions is captured by another emergent game. Beyond expectation, the two emergent games are typically different due to the unidirectionality of the evolving networks. The Nash equilibrium analysis of the two games facilitates us to give the criterion under which the minority opinion with few disciples initially takes over the population eventually for in-group bias. Our work fosters the understanding of opinion dynamics ranging from methodology to research content.

Perspectives on adaptive dynamical systems

Adaptivity is a dynamical feature that is omnipresent in nature, socio-economics, and technology. For example, adaptive couplings appear in various real-world systems, such as the power grid, social, and neural networks, and they form the backbone of closed-loop control strategies and machine learning algorithms. In this article, we provide an interdisciplinary perspective on adaptive systems. We reflect on the notion and terminology of adaptivity in different disciplines and discuss which role adaptivity plays for various fields. We highlight common open challenges and give perspectives on future research directions, looking to inspire interdisciplinary approaches.

Mean-field models of dynamics on networks via moment closure: An automated procedure

In the study of dynamics on networks, moment closure is a commonly used method to obtain low-dimensional evolution equations amenable to analysis. The variables in the evolution equations are mean counts of subgraph states and are referred to as moments. Due to interaction between neighbors, each moment equation is a function of higher-order moments, such that an infinite hierarchy of equations arises. Hence, the derivation requires truncation at a given order and an approximation of the highest-order moments in terms of lower-order ones, known as a closure formula. Recent systematic approximations have either restricted focus to closed moment equations for SIR epidemic spreading or to unclosed moment equations for arbitrary dynamics. In this paper, we develop a general procedure that automates both derivation and closure of arbitrary order moment equations for dynamics with nearest-neighbor interactions on undirected networks. Automation of the closure step was made possible by our generalized closure scheme, which systematically decomposes the largest subgraphs into their smaller components. We show that this decomposition is exact if these components form a tree, there is independence at distances beyond their graph diameter, and there is spatial homogeneity. Testing our method for SIS epidemic spreading on lattices and random networks confirms that biases are larger for networks with many short cycles in regimes with long-range dependence. A Mathematica package that automates the moment closure is available for download.

Spontaneous symmetry breaking of active phase in coevolving nonlinear voter model

We study an adaptive network model driven by a nonlinear voter dynamics. Each node in the network represents a voter and can be in one of two states that correspond to different opinions shared by the voters. A voter disagreeing with its neighbor's opinion may either adopt it or rewire its link to another randomly chosen voter with any opinion. The system is studied by means of the pair approximation in which a distinction between the average degrees of nodes in different states is made. This approach allows us to identify two dynamically active phases: a symmetric and an asymmetric one. The asymmetric active phase, in contrast to the symmetric one, is characterized by different numbers of nodes in the opposite states that coexist in the network. The pair approximation predicts the possibility of spontaneous symmetry breaking, which leads to a continuous phase transition between the symmetric and the asymmetric active phases. In this case, the absorbing transition occurs between the asymmetric active and the absorbing phases after the spontaneous symmetry breaking. Discontinuous phase transitions and hysteresis loops between both active phases are also possible. Interestingly, the asymmetric active phase is not displayed by the model where the rewiring occurs only to voters sharing the same opinion, studied by other authors. Our results are backed up by Monte Carlo simulations.

Macroscopic approximation methods for the analysis of adaptive networked agent-based models: Example of a two-sector investment model

In this paper, we propose a statistical aggregation method for agent-based models with heterogeneous agents that interact both locally on a complex adaptive network and globally on a market. The method combines three approaches from statistical physics: (a) moment closure, (b) pair approximation of adaptive network processes, and (c) thermodynamic limit of the resulting stochastic process. As an example of use, we develop a stochastic agent-based model with heterogeneous households that invest in either a fossil-fuel- or renewables-based sector while allocating labor on a competitive market. Using the adaptive voter model, the model describes agents as social learners that interact on a dynamic network. We apply the approximation methods to derive a set of ordinary differential equations that approximate the macrodynamics of the model. A comparison of the reduced analytical model with numerical simulations shows that the approximation fits well for a wide range of parameters. The method makes it possible to use analytical tools to better understand the dynamical properties of models with heterogeneous agents on adaptive networks. We showcase this with a bifurcation analysis that identifies parameter ranges with multistabilities. The method can thus help to explain emergent phenomena from network interactions and make them mathematically traceable.

Fitting in and breaking up: A nonlinear version of coevolving voter models

We investigate a nonlinear version of coevolving voter models, in which node states and network structure update as a coupled stochastic process. Most prior work on coevolving voter models has focused on linear update rules with fixed and homogeneous rewiring and adopting probabilities. By contrast, in our nonlinear version, the probability that a node rewires or adopts is a function of how well it "fits in" with the nodes in its neighborhood. To explore this idea, we incorporate a local-survey parameter σ_{i} that encodes the fraction of neighbors of an updating node i that share its opinion state. In an update, with probability σ_{i}^{q} (for some nonlinearity parameter q), the updating node rewires; with complementary probability 1-σ_{i}^{q}, the updating node adopts a new opinion state. We study this mechanism using three rewiring schemes: after an updating node deletes one of its discordant edges, it then either (1) "rewires-to-random" by choosing a new neighbor in a random process; (2) "rewires-to-same" by choosing a new neighbor in a random process from nodes that share its state; or (3) "rewires-to-none" by not rewiring at all (akin to "unfriending" on social media). We compare our nonlinear coevolving voter model to several existing linear coevolving voter models on various network architectures. Relative to those models, we find in our model that initial network topology plays a larger role in the dynamics and that the choice of rewiring mechanism plays a smaller role. A particularly interesting feature of our model is that, under certain conditions, the opinion state that is held initially by a minority of the nodes can effectively spread to almost every node in a network if the minority nodes view themselves as the majority. In light of this observation, we relate our results to recent work on the majority illusion in social networks.

Adaptive voter model on simplicial complexes

Collective decision making processes lie at the heart of many social, political, and economic challenges. The classical voter model is a well-established conceptual model to study such processes. In this work, we define a form of adaptive (or coevolutionary) voter model posed on a simplicial complex, i.e., on a certain class of hypernetworks or hypergraphs. We use the persuasion rule along edges of the classical voter model and the recently studied rewiring rule of edges towards like-minded nodes, and introduce a peer-pressure rule applied to three nodes connected via a 2-simplex. This simplicial adaptive voter model is studied via numerical simulation. We show that adding the effect of peer pressure to an adaptive voter model leaves its fragmentation transition, i.e., the transition upon varying the rewiring rate from a single majority state into a fragmented state of two different opinion subgraphs, intact. Yet, above and below the fragmentation transition, we observe that the peer pressure has substantial quantitative effects. It accelerates the transition to a single-opinion state below the transition and also speeds up the system dynamics towards fragmentation above the transition. Furthermore, we quantify that there is a multiscale hierarchy in the model leading to the depletion of 2-simplices, before the depletion of active edges. This leads to the conjecture that many other dynamic network models on simplicial complexes may show a similar behavior with respect to the sequential evolution of simplices of different dimensions.

Zealotry effects on opinion dynamics in the adaptive voter model

The adaptive voter model has been widely studied as a conceptual model for opinion formation processes on time-evolving social networks. Past studies on the effect of zealots, i.e., nodes aiming to spread their fixed opinion throughout the system, only considered the voter model on a static network. Here we extend the study of zealotry to the case of an adaptive network topology co-evolving with the state of the nodes and investigate opinion spreading induced by zealots depending on their initial density and connectedness. Numerical simulations reveal that below the fragmentation threshold a low density of zealots is sufficient to spread their opinion to the whole network. Beyond the transition point, zealots must exhibit an increased degree as compared to ordinary nodes for an efficient spreading of their opinion. We verify the numerical findings using a mean-field approximation of the model yielding a low-dimensional set of coupled ordinary differential equations. Our results imply that the spreading of the zealots' opinion in the adaptive voter model is strongly dependent on the link rewiring probability and the average degree of normal nodes in comparison with that of the zealots. In order to avoid a complete dominance of the zealots' opinion, there are two possible strategies for the remaining nodes: adjusting the probability of rewiring and/or the number of connections with other nodes, respectively.

Coupling of link- and node-ordering in the coevolving voter model

We consider the process of reaching the final state in the coevolving voter model. There is a coevolution of state dynamics, where a node can copy a state from a random neighbor with probabilty 1-p and link dynamics, where a node can rewire its link to another node of the same state with probability p. That exhibits an absorbing transition to a frozen phase above a critical value of rewiring probability. Our analytical and numerical studies show that in the active phase mean values of magnetization of nodes n and links m tend to the same value that depends on initial conditions. In a similar way mean degrees of spins up and spins down become equal. The system obeys a special statistical conservation law since a linear combination of both types magnetizations averaged over many realizations starting from the same initial conditions is a constant of motion: Λ≡(1-p)μm(t)+pn(t)=const., where μ is the mean node degree. The final mean magnetization of nodes and links in the active phase is proportional to Λ while the final density of active links is a square function of Λ. If the rewiring probability is above a critical value and the system separates into disconnected domains, then the values of nodes and links magnetizations are not the same and final mean degrees of spins up and spins down can be different.

Fragmentation transitions in a coevolving nonlinear voter model

We study a coevolving nonlinear voter model describing the coupled evolution of the states of the nodes and the network topology. Nonlinearity of the interaction is measured by a parameter q. The network topology changes by rewiring links at a rate p. By analytical and numerical analysis we obtain a phase diagram in p,q parameter space with three different phases: Dynamically active coexistence phase in a single component network, absorbing consensus phase in a single component network, and absorbing phase in a fragmented network. For finite systems the active phase has a lifetime that grows exponentially with system size, at variance with the similar phase for the linear voter model that has a lifetime proportional to system size. We find three transition lines that meet at the point of the fragmentation transition of the linear voter model. A first transition line corresponds to a continuous absorbing transition between the active and fragmented phases. The other two transition lines are discontinuous transitions fundamentally different from the transition of the linear voter model. One is a fragmentation transition between the consensus and fragmented phases, and the other is an absorbing transition in a single component network between the active and consensus phases.

Opinion diversity and community formation in adaptive networks

It is interesting and of significant importance to investigate how network structures co-evolve with opinions. In this article, we show that, a simple model integrating consensus formation, link rewiring, and opinion change allows complex system dynamics to emerge, driving the system into a dynamic equilibrium with the co-existence of diversified opinions. Specifically, similar opinion holders may form into communities yet with no strict community consensus; and rather than being separated into disconnected communities, different communities are connected by a non-trivial proportion of inter-community links. More importantly, we show that the complex dynamics may lead to different numbers of communities at the steady state with a given tolerance between different opinion holders. We construct a framework for theoretically analyzing the co-evolution process. Theoretical analysis and extensive simulation results reveal some useful insights into the complex co-evolution process, including the formation of dynamic equilibrium, the transition between different steady states with different numbers of communities, and the dynamics between opinion distribution and network modularity.

Unification of theoretical approaches for epidemic spreading on complex networks

Models of epidemic spreading on complex networks have attracted great attention among researchers in physics, mathematics, and epidemiology due to their success in predicting and controlling scenarios of epidemic spreading in real-world scenarios. To understand the interplay between epidemic spreading and the topology of a contact network, several outstanding theoretical approaches have been developed. An accurate theoretical approach describing the spreading dynamics must take both the network topology and dynamical correlations into consideration at the expense of increasing the complexity of the equations. In this short survey we unify the most widely used theoretical approaches for epidemic spreading on complex networks in terms of increasing complexity, including the mean-field, the heterogeneous mean-field, the quench mean-field, dynamical message-passing, link percolation, and pairwise approximation. We build connections among these approaches to provide new insights into developing an accurate theoretical approach to spreading dynamics on complex networks.

Transitivity reinforcement in the coevolving voter model

One of the fundamental structural properties of many networks is triangle closure. Whereas the influence of this transitivity on a variety of contagion dynamics has been previously explored, existing models of coevolving or adaptive network systems typically use rewiring rules that randomize away this important property, raising questions about their applicability. In contrast, we study here a modified coevolving voter model dynamics that explicitly reinforces and maintains such clustering. Carrying out numerical simulations for a variety of parameter settings, we establish that the transitions and dynamical states observed in coevolving voter model networks without clustering are altered by reinforcing transitivity in the model. We then use a semi-analytical framework in terms of approximate master equations to predict the dynamical behaviors of the model for a variety of parameter settings.

Adaptive network models of collective decision making in swarming systems

We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures a phase transition to collective motion in some swarming systems, such as the Vicsek model, and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent.

Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure

Large-scale transitions in societies are associated with both individual behavioural change and restructuring of the social network. These two factors have often been considered independently, yet recent advances in social network research challenge this view. Here we show that common features of societal marginalization and clustering emerge naturally during transitions in a co-evolutionary adaptive network model. This is achieved by explicitly considering the interplay between individual interaction and a dynamic network structure in behavioural selection. We exemplify this mechanism by simulating how smoking behaviour and the network structure get reconfigured by changing social norms. Our results are consistent with empirical findings: The prevalence of smoking was reduced, remaining smokers were preferentially connected among each other and formed increasingly marginalized clusters. We propose that self-amplifying feedbacks between individual behaviour and dynamic restructuring of the network are main drivers of the transition. This generative mechanism for co-evolution of individual behaviour and social network structure may apply to a wide range of examples beyond smoking.

Understanding Social Contagion in Adoption Processes Using Dynamic Social Networks

There are many studies in the marketing and diffusion literature of the conditions in which social contagion affects adoption processes. Yet most of these studies assume that social interactions do not change over time, even though actors in social networks exhibit different likelihoods of being influenced across the diffusion period. Rooted in physics and epidemiology theories, this study proposes a Susceptible Infectious Susceptible (SIS) model to assess the role of social contagion in adoption processes, which takes changes in social dynamics over time into account. To study the adoption over a span of ten years, the authors used detailed data sets from a community of consumers and determined the importance of social contagion, as well as how the interplay of social and non-social influences from outside the community drives adoption processes. Although social contagion matters for diffusion, it is less relevant in shaping adoption when the study also includes social dynamics among members of the community. This finding is relevant for managers and entrepreneurs who trust in word-of-mouth marketing campaigns whose effect may be overestimated if marketers fail to acknowledge variations in social interactions.

Large epidemic thresholds emerge in heterogeneous networks of heterogeneous nodes

One of the famous results of network science states that networks with heterogeneous connectivity are more susceptible to epidemic spreading than their more homogeneous counterparts. In particular, in networks of identical nodes it has been shown that network heterogeneity, i.e. a broad degree distribution, can lower the epidemic threshold at which epidemics can invade the system. Network heterogeneity can thus allow diseases with lower transmission probabilities to persist and spread. However, it has been pointed out that networks in which the properties of nodes are intrinsically heterogeneous can be very resilient to disease spreading. Heterogeneity in structure can enhance or diminish the resilience of networks with heterogeneous nodes, depending on the correlations between the topological and intrinsic properties. Here, we consider a plausible scenario where people have intrinsic differences in susceptibility and adapt their social network structure to the presence of the disease. We show that the resilience of networks with heterogeneous connectivity can surpass those of networks with homogeneous connectivity. For epidemiology, this implies that network heterogeneity should not be studied in isolation, it is instead the heterogeneity of infection risk that determines the likelihood of outbreaks.

Macroscopic description of complex adaptive networks coevolving with dynamic node states

In many real-world complex systems, the time evolution of the network's structure and the dynamic state of its nodes are closely entangled. Here we study opinion formation and imitation on an adaptive complex network which is dependent on the individual dynamic state of each node and vice versa to model the coevolution of renewable resources with the dynamics of harvesting agents on a social network. The adaptive voter model is coupled to a set of identical logistic growth models and we mainly find that, in such systems, the rate of interactions between nodes as well as the adaptive rewiring probability are crucial parameters for controlling the sustainability of the system's equilibrium state. We derive a macroscopic description of the system in terms of ordinary differential equations which provides a general framework to model and quantify the influence of single node dynamics on the macroscopic state of the network. The thus obtained framework is applicable to many fields of study, such as epidemic spreading, opinion formation, or socioecological modeling.

Self-organization of complex networks as a dynamical system

To understand the dynamics of real-world networks, we investigate a mathematical model of the interplay between the dynamics of random walkers on a weighted network and the link weights driven by a resource carried by the walkers. Our numerical studies reveal that, under suitable conditions, the co-evolving dynamics lead to the emergence of stationary power-law distributions of the resource and link weights, while the resource quantity at each node ceaselessly changes with time. We analyze the network organization as a deterministic dynamical system and find that the system exhibits multistability, with numerous fixed points, limit cycles, and chaotic states. The chaotic behavior of the system leads to the continual changes in the microscopic network dynamics in the absence of any external random noises. We conclude that the intrinsic interplay between the states of the nodes and network reformation constitutes a major factor in the vicissitudes of real-world networks.

Multiopinion coevolving voter model with infinitely many phase transitions

We consider an idealized model in which individuals' changing opinions and their social network coevolve, with disagreements between neighbors in the network resolved either through one imitating the opinion of the other or by reassignment of the discordant edge. Specifically, an interaction between x and one of its neighbors y leads to x imitating y with probability (1-α) and otherwise (i.e., with probability α) x cutting its tie to y in order to instead connect to a randomly chosen individual. Building on previous work about the two-opinion case, we study the multiple-opinion situation, finding that the model has infinitely many phase transitions (in the large graph limit with infinitely many initial opinions). Moreover, the formulas describing the end states of these processes are remarkably simple when expressed as a function of β=α/(1-α).

Asymmetric coevolutionary voter dynamics

We consider a modification of the adaptive contact process that, interpreted in the context of opinion dynamics, breaks the symmetry of the coevolutionary voter model by assigning to each node type a different strategy to promote consensus: Orthodox opinion holders spread their opinion via social pressure and rewire their connections following a segregationist strategy; heterodox opinion holders adopt a proselytic strategy, converting their neighbors through personal interactions, and relax to the orthodox opinion according to its representation in the population. We give a full description of the phase diagram of this asymmetric model, using the standard pair approximation equations and assessing their performance by comparison with stochastic simulations. We find that although global consensus is favored with regard to the symmetric case, the asymmetric model also features an active phase. We study the stochastic properties of the corresponding metastable state in finite-size networks, discussing the applicability of the analytic approximations developed for the coevolutionary voter model. We find that, in contrast to the symmetric case, the final consensus state is predetermined by the system's parameters and independent of initial conditions for sufficiently large system sizes. We also find that rewiring always favors consensus, both by significantly reducing convergence times and by changing their scaling with system size.

Consensus time and conformity in the adaptive voter model

The adaptive voter model is a paradigmatic model in the study of opinion formation. Here we propose an extension for this model, in which conflicts are resolved by obtaining another opinion, and analytically study the time required for consensus to emerge. Our results shed light on the rich phenomenology of both the original and extended adaptive voter models, including a dynamical phase transition in the scaling behavior of the mean time to consensus.

Coupled adaptive complex networks

Adaptive networks, which combine topological evolution of the network with dynamics on the network, are ubiquitous across disciplines. Examples include technical distribution networks such as road networks and the internet, natural and biological networks, and social science networks. These networks often interact with or depend upon other networks, resulting in coupled adaptive networks. In this paper we study susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic dynamics on coupled adaptive networks, where susceptible nodes are able to avoid contact with infected nodes by rewiring their intranetwork connections. However, infected nodes can pass the disease through internetwork connections, which do not change with time: The dependencies between the coupled networks remain constant. We develop an analytical formalism for these systems and validate it using extensive numerical simulation. We find that stability is increased by increasing the number of internetwork links, in the sense that the range of parameters over which both endemic and healthy states coexist (both states are reachable depending on the initial conditions) becomes smaller. Finally, we find a new stable state that does not appear in the case of a single adaptive network but only in the case of weakly coupled networks, in which the infection is endemic in one network but neither becomes endemic nor dies out in the other. Instead, it persists only at the nodes that are coupled to nodes in the other network through internetwork links. We speculate on the implications of these findings.

Phase transition in a coevolving network of conformist and contrarian voters

In the coevolving voter model, each voter has one of two diametrically opposite opinions, and a voter encountering a neighbor with the opposite opinion may either adopt it or rewire the connection to another randomly chosen voter sharing the same opinion. As we smoothly change the relative frequency of rewiring compared to that of adoption, there occurs a phase transition between an active phase and a frozen phase. By performing extensive Monte Carlo calculations, we show that the phase transition is characterized by critical exponents β=0.54(1) and ν[over ¯]=1.5(1), which differ from the existing mean-field-type prediction. We furthermore extend the model by introducing a contrarian type that tries to have neighbors with the opposite opinion, and show that the critical behavior still belongs to the same universality class irrespective of such contrarians' fraction.

Scale-free structures emerging from co-evolution of a network and the distribution of a diffusive resource on it

Co-evolution exhibited by a network system, involving the intricate interplay between the dynamics of the network itself and the subsystems connected by it, is a key concept for understanding the self-organized, flexible nature of real-world network systems. We propose a simple model of such coevolving network dynamics, in which the diffusion of a resource over a weighted network and the resource-driven evolution of the link weights occur simultaneously. We demonstrate that, under feasible conditions, the network robustly acquires scale-free characteristics in the asymptotic state. Interestingly, in the case that the system includes dissipation, it asymptotically realizes a dynamical phase characterized by an organized scale-free network, in which the ranking of each node with respect to the quantity of the resource possessed thereby changes ceaselessly. Our model offers a unified framework for understanding some real-world diffusion-driven network systems of diverse types.

Fragmentation transitions in multistate voter models

Adaptive models of opinion formation among humans can display a fragmentation transition, where a social network breaks into disconnected components. Here we investigate this transition in a class of models with arbitrary number of opinions. In contrast to previous work we do not assume that opinions are equidistant or arranged on a one-dimensional conceptual axis. Our investigation reveals detailed analytical results on fragmentations in a three-opinion model, which are confirmed by agent-based simulations. Furthermore, we show that in certain models the number of opinions can be reduced without affecting the fragmentation points.

Early fragmentation in the adaptive voter model on directed networks

We consider voter dynamics on a directed adaptive network with fixed out-degree distribution. A transition between an active phase and a fragmented phase is observed. This transition is similar to the undirected case if the networks are sufficiently dense and have a narrow out-degree distribution. However, if a significant number of nodes with low out degree is present, then fragmentation can occur even far below the estimated critical point due to the formation of self-stabilizing structures that nucleate fragmentation. This process may be relevant for fragmentation in current political opinion formation processes.

Dual modeling of political opinion networks

We present the result of a dual modeling of opinion networks. The model complements the agent-based opinion models by attaching to the social agent (voters) network a political opinion (party) network having its own intrinsic mechanisms of evolution. These two subnetworks form a global network, which can be either isolated from, or dependent on, the external influence. Basically, the evolution of the agent network includes link adding and deleting, with the opinion changes influenced by social validation, the political climate, the attractivity of the parties, and the interaction between them. The opinion network is initially composed of numerous nodes representing opinions or parties that are located on a one dimensional axis according to their political positions. The mechanism of evolution includes union, splitting, change of position, and attractivity, taking into account the pairwise node interaction decaying with node distance in power law. The global evolution ends in a stable distribution of the social agents over a quasistable and fluctuating stationary number of remaining parties. Empirical study on the lifetime distribution of numerous parties and vote results is carried out to verify numerical results.