Epidemic spreading in weighted networks: an edge-based mean-field solution

Modeling the Uncertainty of Information Propagation for Rumor Detection: A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach

Automatic rumor detection is critical for maintaining a healthy social media environment. The mainstream methods generally learn rich features from information cascades by modeling the cascade as a tree or graph structure where edges are built based on interactions between a tweet and retweets. Some psychology studies have empirically shown that users' various subjective factors always cause the uncertainty of interactions such as differences among interactive behavior activation thresholds or semantic relevancy. However, previous works model interactions by employing a simple fully connected layer on fixed edge weights in the graph and cannot reasonably describe this inherent uncertainty of complex interactions. In this article, inspired by the fuzzy theory, we propose a novel neuro-fuzzy method, fuzzy graph convolutional networks (FGCNs), to sufficiently understand uncertain interactions in the information cascade in a fuzzy perspective. Specifically, a new strategy of graph construction is first designed to convert each information cascade into a heterogeneous graph structure with the consideration of explicit interactive behaviors between a tweet and its retweet, as well as implicit interactive behaviors among retweets, enriching more structural clues in the graph. Then, we improve graph convolutional networks by incorporating edge fuzzification (EF) modules. The EFs adapt edge weights according to predefined membership to enhance message passing in the graph. The proposed model can provide a stronger relational inductive bias for expressing uncertain interactions and capture more discriminative and robust structural features for rumor detection. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of FGCN on both rumor detection and early rumor detection.

Heterogeneous pair-approximation analysis for susceptible-infectious-susceptible epidemics on networks

The pair heterogeneous mean-field (PHMF) model has been used extensively in previous studies to investigate the dynamics of susceptible-infectious-susceptible epidemics on complex networks. However, the approximate treatment of the classical or reduced PHMF models lacks a rigorous theoretical analysis. By means of the standard and full PHMF models, we first derived the equivalent conditions for the approximate model treatment. Furthermore, we analytically derived a novel epidemic threshold for the PHMF model, and we demonstrated via numerical simulations that this threshold condition differs from all those reported in earlier studies. Our findings indicate that both the reduced and full PHMF models agree well with continuous-time stochastic simulations, especially when infection is spreading at considerably higher rates.

Epidemic Dynamics of a Fractional-Order SIR Weighted Network Model and Its Targeted Immunity Control

With outbreaks of epidemics, an enormous loss of life and property has been caused. Based on the influence of disease transmission and information propagation on the transmission characteristics of infectious diseases, in this paper, a fractional-order SIR epidemic model is put forward on a two-layer weighted network. The local stability of the disease-free equilibrium is investigated. Moreover, a conclusion is obtained that there is no endemic equilibrium. Since the elderly and the children have fewer social tiers, a targeted immunity control that is based on age structure is proposed. Finally, an example is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. These studies contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the epidemic transmission mechanism and play a positive guiding role in the prevention and control of some epidemics.

Generating functions for message passing on weighted networks: Directed bond percolation and susceptible, infected, recovered epidemics

We study the SIR (susceptible, infected, removed/recovered) model on directed graphs with heterogeneous transmission probabilities within the message-passing approximation. We characterize the percolation transition, predict cluster size distributions, and suggest vaccination strategies. All predictions are compared to numerical simulations on real networks. The percolation threshold that we predict is a rigorous lower bound to the threshold on real networks. For large, locally treelike networks, our predictions agree very well with the numerical data.

Modeling airport congestion contagion by heterogeneous SIS epidemic spreading on airline networks

In this work, we explore the possibility of using a heterogeneous Susceptible- Infected-Susceptible SIS spreading process on an airline network to model airport congestion contagion with the objective to reproduce airport vulnerability. We derive the vulnerability of each airport from the US Airport Network data as the congestion probability of each airport. In order to capture diverse flight features between airports, e.g. frequency and duration, we construct three types of airline networks. The infection rate of each link in the SIS spreading process is proportional to its corresponding weight in the underlying airline network constructed. The recovery rate of each node is also heterogeneous, dependent on its node strength in the underlying airline network, which is the total weight of the links incident to the node. Such heterogeneous recovery rate is motivated by the fact that large airports may recover fast from congestion due to their well-equipped infrastructures. The nodal infection probability in the meta-stable state is used as a prediction of the vulnerability of the corresponding airport. We illustrate that our model could reproduce the distribution of nodal vulnerability and rank the airports in vulnerability evidently better than the SIS model whose recovery rate is homogeneous. The vulnerability is the largest at airports whose strength in the airline network is neither too large nor too small. This phenomenon can be captured by our heterogeneous model, but not the homogeneous model where a node with a larger strength has a higher infection probability. This explains partially the out-performance of the heterogeneous model. This proposed congestion contagion model may shed lights on the development of strategies to identify vulnerable airports and to mitigate global congestion by e.g. congestion reduction at selected airports.

Suppressing epidemic spreading by optimizing the allocation of resources between prevention and treatment

The rational allocation of resources is crucial to suppress the outbreak of epidemics. Here, we propose an epidemic spreading model in which resources are used simultaneously to prevent and treat disease. Based on the model, we study the impacts of different resource allocation strategies on epidemic spreading. First, we analytically obtain the epidemic threshold of disease using the recurrent dynamical message passing method. Then, we simulate the spreading of epidemics on the Erdős-Rényi (ER) network and the scale-free network and investigate the infection density of disease as a function of the disease infection rate. We find hysteresis loops in the phase transition of the infection density on both types of networks. Intriguingly, when different resource allocation schemes are adopted, the phase transition on the ER network is always a first-order phase transition, while the phase transition on the scale-free network transforms from a hybrid phase transition to a first-order phase transition. Particularly, through extensive numerical simulations, we find that there is an optimal resource allocation scheme, which can best suppress epidemic spreading. In addition, we find that the degree heterogeneity of the network promotes the spreading of disease. Finally, by comparing theoretical and numerical results on a real-world network, we find that our method can accurately predict the spreading of disease on the real-world network.

SimNet: Similarity-based network embeddings with mean commute time

In this paper, we propose a new approach for learning node embeddings for weighted undirected networks. We perform a random walk on the network to extract the latent structural information and perform node embedding learning under a similarity-based framework. Unlike previous works, we apply a different criterion to capture the proximity information between nodes in a network, and use it for improved modeling of similarities between nodes. We show that the mean commute time (MCT) between two nodes, defined as the average time a random walker takes to reach a target node and return to the source, plays a crucial role in quantifying the actual degree of proximity between two nodes of the network. We then introduce a novel definition of a similarity matrix that is based on the pair-wise mean commute time captured, which enables us to adequately represent the connection of similar nodes. We utilize pseudoinverse of the Laplacian matrix of the graph for calculating such a proximity measure, capturing rich structural information out of the graph for learning more adequate node representations of a network. The results of different experiments on three real-world networks demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms existing related efforts in classification, clustering, visualization as well as link prediction tasks.

Coevolution spreading in complex networks

The propagations of diseases, behaviors and information in real systems are rarely independent of each other, but they are coevolving with strong interactions. To uncover the dynamical mechanisms, the evolving spatiotemporal patterns and critical phenomena of networked coevolution spreading are extremely important, which provide theoretical foundations for us to control epidemic spreading, predict collective behaviors in social systems, and so on. The coevolution spreading dynamics in complex networks has thus attracted much attention in many disciplines. In this review, we introduce recent progress in the study of coevolution spreading dynamics, emphasizing the contributions from the perspectives of statistical mechanics and network science. The theoretical methods, critical phenomena, phase transitions, interacting mechanisms, and effects of network topology for four representative types of coevolution spreading mechanisms, including the coevolution of biological contagions, social contagions, epidemic-awareness, and epidemic-resources, are presented in detail, and the challenges in this field as well as open issues for future studies are also discussed.

Information diffusion backbones in temporal networks

Progress has been made in understanding how temporal network features affect the percentage of nodes reached by an information diffusion process. In this work, we explore further: which node pairs are likely to contribute to the actual diffusion of information, i.e., appear in a diffusion trajectory? How is this likelihood related to the local temporal connection features of the node pair? Such deep understanding of the role of node pairs is crucial to tackle challenging optimization problems such as which kind of node pairs or temporal contacts should be stimulated in order to maximize the prevalence of information spreading. We start by using Susceptible-Infected (SI) model, in which an infected (information possessing) node could spread the information to a susceptible node with a given infection probability β whenever a contact happens between the two nodes, as the information diffusion process. We consider a large number of real-world temporal networks. First, we propose the construction of an information diffusion backbone GB(β) for a SI spreading process with an infection probability β on a temporal network. The backbone is a weighted network where the weight of each node pair indicates how likely the node pair appears in a diffusion trajectory starting from an arbitrary node. Second, we investigate the relation between the backbones with different infection probabilities on a temporal network. We find that the backbone topology obtained for low and high infection probabilities approach the backbone GB(β → 0) and GB(β = 1), respectively. The backbone GB(β → 0) equals the integrated weighted network, where the weight of a node pair counts the total number of contacts in between. Finally, we explore node pairs with what local connection features tend to appear in GB(β = 1), thus actually contribute to the global information diffusion. We discover that a local connection feature among many other features we proposed, could well identify the (high-weight) links in GB(β = 1). This local feature encodes the time that each contact occurs, pointing out the importance of temporal features in determining the role of node pairs in a dynamic process.

Fragility and robustness of self-sustained oscillations in an epidemiological model on small-world networks

We investigate the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model, typical of mathematical epidemiology, with the diversity of the durations of infection and recovery of the individuals on small-world networks. Infection spreads from infected to healthy nodes, whose infection and recovery periods denoted by τ_I and τ_R, respectively, are either fixed or uniformly distributed around a specified mean. Whenever τ_I and τ_R are narrowly distributed around their mean values, the epidemic prevalence in the stationary state is found to reach its maximal level in the typical small-world region. This non-monotonic behavior of the final epidemic prevalence is thought to be similar to the efficient navigation in small worlds with cost minimization. Besides, pronounced oscillatory behavior of the fraction of infected nodes emerges when the number of shortcuts on the underlying network become sufficiently large. Remarkably, we find that the synchronized oscillation of infection incidences is quite fragile to the variability of the two characteristic time scales τ_I and τ_R. Specifically, even in the limit of a random network (where the amplest oscillations are expected to arise for fixed τ_I and τ_R), increasing the variability of the duration of the infectious period and/or that of the refractory period will push the system to change from a self-sustained oscillation to a fixed point with negligible fluctuations in the steady state. Interestingly, negative correlation between τ_I and τ_R can give rise to the robustness of the self-sustained oscillatory phenomenon. Our findings thus highlight the pivotal role of, apart from the external seasonal driving force and demographic stochasticity, the intrinsic characteristic of the system itself in understanding the cycle of outbreaks of recurrent epidemics.

Synergistic interactions promote behavior spreading and alter phase transitions on multiplex networks

Synergistic interactions are ubiquitous in the real world. Recent studies have revealed that, for a single-layer network, synergy can enhance spreading and even induce an explosive contagion. There is at the present a growing interest in behavior spreading dynamics on multiplex networks. What is the role of synergistic interactions in behavior spreading in such networked systems? To address this question, we articulate a synergistic behavior spreading model on a double layer network, where the key manifestation of the synergistic interactions is that the adoption of one behavior by a node in one layer enhances its probability of adopting the behavior in the other layer. A general result is that synergistic interactions can greatly enhance the spreading of the behaviors in both layers. A remarkable phenomenon is that the interactions can alter the nature of the phase transition associated with behavior adoption or spreading dynamics. In particular, depending on the transmission rate of one behavior in a network layer, synergistic interactions can lead to a discontinuous (first-order) or a continuous (second-order) transition in the adoption scope of the other behavior with respect to its transmission rate. A surprising two-stage spreading process can arise: due to synergy, nodes having adopted one behavior in one layer adopt the other behavior in the other layer and then prompt the remaining nodes in this layer to quickly adopt the behavior. Analytically, we develop an edge-based compartmental theory and perform a bifurcation analysis to fully understand, in the weak synergistic interaction regime where the dynamical correlation between the network layers is negligible, the role of the interactions in promoting the social behavioral spreading dynamics in the whole system.

Ranking of Nodal Infection Probability in Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Epidemic

The prevalence, which is the average fraction of infected nodes, has been studied to evaluate the robustness of a network subject to the spread of epidemics. We explore the vulnerability (infection probability) of each node in the metastable state with a given effective infection rate τ. Specifically, we investigate the ranking of the nodal vulnerability subject to a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic, motivated by the fact that the ranking can be crucial for a network operator to assess which nodes are more vulnerable. Via both theoretical and numerical approaches, we unveil that the ranking of nodal vulnerability tends to change more significantly as τ varies when τ is smaller or in Barabási-Albert than Erdős-Rényi random graphs.

Alzheimer's Disease Early Diagnosis Using Manifold-Based Semi-Supervised Learning

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is currently ranked as the sixth leading cause of death in the United States and recent estimates indicate that the disorder may rank third, just behind heart disease and cancer, as a cause of death for older people. Clearly, predicting this disease in the early stages and preventing it from progressing is of great importance. The diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) requires a variety of medical tests, which leads to huge amounts of multivariate heterogeneous data. It can be difficult and exhausting to manually compare, visualize, and analyze this data due to the heterogeneous nature of medical tests; therefore, an efficient approach for accurate prediction of the condition of the brain through the classification of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images is greatly beneficial and yet very challenging. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed for the diagnosis of very early stages of AD through an efficient classification of brain MRI images, which uses label propagation in a manifold-based semi-supervised learning framework. We first apply voxel morphometry analysis to extract some of the most critical AD-related features of brain images from the original MRI volumes and also gray matter (GM) segmentation volumes. The features must capture the most discriminative properties that vary between a healthy and Alzheimer-affected brain. Next, we perform a principal component analysis (PCA)-based dimension reduction on the extracted features for faster yet sufficiently accurate analysis. To make the best use of the captured features, we present a hybrid manifold learning framework which embeds the feature vectors in a subspace. Next, using a small set of labeled training data, we apply a label propagation method in the created manifold space to predict the labels of the remaining images and classify them in the two groups of mild Alzheimer's and normal condition (MCI/NC). The accuracy of the classification using the proposed method is 93.86% for the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS) database of MRI brain images, providing, compared to the best existing methods, a 3% lower error rate.

Social contagions on weighted networks

We investigate critical behaviors of a social contagion model on weighted networks. An edge-weight compartmental approach is applied to analyze the weighted social contagion on strongly heterogenous networks with skewed degree and weight distributions. We find that degree heterogeneity cannot only alter the nature of contagion transition from discontinuous to continuous but also can enhance or hamper the size of adoption, depending on the unit transmission probability. We also show that the heterogeneity of weight distribution always hinders social contagions, and does not alter the transition type.

Epidemic spreading on adaptively weighted scale-free networks

We introduce three modified SIS models on scale-free networks that take into account variable population size, nonlinear infectivity, adaptive weights, behavior inertia and time delay, so as to better characterize the actual spread of epidemics. We develop new mathematical methods and techniques to study the dynamics of the models, including the basic reproduction number, and the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. We show the disease-free equilibrium cannot undergo a Hopf bifurcation. We further analyze the effects of local information of diseases and various immunization schemes on epidemic dynamics. We also perform some stochastic network simulations which yield quantitative agreement with the deterministic mean-field approach.

Unification of theoretical approaches for epidemic spreading on complex networks

Models of epidemic spreading on complex networks have attracted great attention among researchers in physics, mathematics, and epidemiology due to their success in predicting and controlling scenarios of epidemic spreading in real-world scenarios. To understand the interplay between epidemic spreading and the topology of a contact network, several outstanding theoretical approaches have been developed. An accurate theoretical approach describing the spreading dynamics must take both the network topology and dynamical correlations into consideration at the expense of increasing the complexity of the equations. In this short survey we unify the most widely used theoretical approaches for epidemic spreading on complex networks in terms of increasing complexity, including the mean-field, the heterogeneous mean-field, the quench mean-field, dynamical message-passing, link percolation, and pairwise approximation. We build connections among these approaches to provide new insights into developing an accurate theoretical approach to spreading dynamics on complex networks.

A social contagious model of the obesity epidemic

Obesity has been recognized as a global epidemic by WHO, followed by many empirical evidences to prove its infectiousness. However, the inter-person spreading dynamics of obesity are seldom studied. A distinguishing feature of the obesity epidemic is that it is driven by a social contagion process which cannot be perfectly described by the infectious disease models. In this paper, we propose a novel belief decision model based on the famous Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to model obesity epidemic as the competing spread of two obesity-related behaviors: physical inactivity and physical activity. The transition of health states is described by an SIS model. Results reveal the existence of obesity epidemic threshold, above which obesity is quickly eradicated. When increasing the fading level of information spread, enlarging the clustering of initial obese seeds, or introducing small-world characteristics into the network topology, the threshold is easily met. Social discrimination against the obese people plays completely different roles in two cases: on one hand, when obesity cannot be eradicated, social discrimination can reduce the number of obese people; on the other hand, when obesity is eradicable, social discrimination may instead cause it breaking out.

Navigation by anomalous random walks on complex networks

Anomalous random walks having long-range jumps are a critical branch of dynamical processes on networks, which can model a number of search and transport processes. However, traditional measurements based on mean first passage time are not useful as they fail to characterize the cost associated with each jump. Here we introduce a new concept of mean first traverse distance (MFTD) to characterize anomalous random walks that represents the expected traverse distance taken by walkers searching from source node to target node, and we provide a procedure for calculating the MFTD between two nodes. We use Lévy walks on networks as an example, and demonstrate that the proposed approach can unravel the interplay between diffusion dynamics of Lévy walks and the underlying network structure. Moreover, applying our framework to the famous PageRank search, we show how to inform the optimality of the PageRank search. The framework for analyzing anomalous random walks on complex networks offers a useful new paradigm to understand the dynamics of anomalous diffusion processes, and provides a unified scheme to characterize search and transport processes on networks.

The Accuracy of Mean-Field Approximation for Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Infection Rates

The epidemic spreading over a network has been studied for years by applying the mean-field approach in both homogeneous case, where each node may get infected by an infected neighbor with the same rate, and heterogeneous case, where the infection rates between different pairs of nodes are also different. Researchers have discussed whether the mean-field approaches could accurately describe the epidemic spreading for the homogeneous cases but not for the heterogeneous cases. In this paper, we explore if and under what conditions the mean-field approach could perform well when the infection rates are heterogeneous. In particular, we employ the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model and compare the average fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state, where the fraction of infected nodes remains stable for a long time, obtained by the continuous-time simulation and the mean-field approximation. We concentrate on an individual-based mean-field approximation called the N-intertwined Mean Field Approximation (NIMFA), which is an advanced approach considered the underlying network topology. Moreover, for the heterogeneity of the infection rates, we consider not only the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) infection rate but also the infection rate correlated with the degree of the two end nodes. We conclude that NIMFA is generally more accurate when the prevalence of the epidemic is higher. Given the same effective infection rate, NIMFA is less accurate when the variance of the i.i.d. infection rate or the correlation between the infection rate and the nodal degree leads to a lower prevalence. Moreover, given the same actual prevalence, NIMFA performs better in the cases: 1) when the variance of the i.i.d. infection rates is smaller (while the average is unchanged); 2) when the correlation between the infection rate and the nodal degree is positive. Our work suggests the conditions when the mean-field approach, in particular NIMFA, is more accurate in the approximation of the SIS epidemic with heterogeneous infection rates.

Suppressing disease spreading by using information diffusion on multiplex networks

Although there is always an interplay between the dynamics of information diffusion and disease spreading, the empirical research on the systemic coevolution mechanisms connecting these two spreading dynamics is still lacking. Here we investigate the coevolution mechanisms and dynamics between information and disease spreading by utilizing real data and a proposed spreading model on multiplex network. Our empirical analysis finds asymmetrical interactions between the information and disease spreading dynamics. Our results obtained from both the theoretical framework and extensive stochastic numerical simulations suggest that an information outbreak can be triggered in a communication network by its own spreading dynamics or by a disease outbreak on a contact network, but that the disease threshold is not affected by information spreading. Our key finding is that there is an optimal information transmission rate that markedly suppresses the disease spreading. We find that the time evolution of the dynamics in the proposed model qualitatively agrees with the real-world spreading processes at the optimal information transmission rate.

Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

Coupled effects of local movement and global interaction on contagion

By incorporating segregated spatial domain and individual-based linkage into the SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model, we propose a generalized epidemic model which can change from the territorial epidemic model to the networked epidemic model. The role of the individual-based linkage between different spatial domains is investigated. As we adjust the timescale parameter τ from 0 to unity, which represents the degree of activation of the individual-based linkage, three regions are found. Within the region of 0 < τ < 0.02 , the epidemic is determined by local movement and is sensitive to the timescale τ . Within the region of 0.02 < τ < 0.5 , the epidemic is insensitive to the timescale τ . Within the region of 0.5 < τ < 1 , the outbreak of the epidemic is determined by the structure of the individual-based linkage. As we keep an eye on the first region, the role of activating the individual-based linkage in the present model is similar to the role of the shortcuts in the two-dimensional small world network. Only activating a small number of the individual-based linkage can prompt the outbreak of the epidemic globally. The role of narrowing segregated spatial domain and reducing mobility in epidemic control is checked. These two measures are found to be conducive to curbing the spread of infectious disease only when the global interaction is suppressed. A log-log relation between the change in the number of infected individuals and the timescale τ is found. By calculating the epidemic threshold and the mean first encounter time, we heuristically analyze the microscopic characteristics of the propagation of the epidemic in the present model.

Mathematical and computational approaches to epidemic modeling: a comprehensive review

Mathematical and computational approaches are important tools for understanding epidemic spread patterns and evaluating policies of disease control. In recent years, epidemiology has become increasingly integrated with mathematics, sociology, management science, complexity science, and computer science. The cross of multiple disciplines has caused rapid development of mathematical and computational approaches to epidemic modeling. In this article, we carry out a comprehensive review of epidemic models to provide an insight into the literature of epidemic modeling and simulation. We introduce major epidemic models in three directions, including mathematical models, complex network models, and agent-based models. We discuss the principles, applications, advantages, and limitations of these models. Meanwhile, we also propose some future research directions in epidemic modeling.

Large epidemic thresholds emerge in heterogeneous networks of heterogeneous nodes

One of the famous results of network science states that networks with heterogeneous connectivity are more susceptible to epidemic spreading than their more homogeneous counterparts. In particular, in networks of identical nodes it has been shown that network heterogeneity, i.e. a broad degree distribution, can lower the epidemic threshold at which epidemics can invade the system. Network heterogeneity can thus allow diseases with lower transmission probabilities to persist and spread. However, it has been pointed out that networks in which the properties of nodes are intrinsically heterogeneous can be very resilient to disease spreading. Heterogeneity in structure can enhance or diminish the resilience of networks with heterogeneous nodes, depending on the correlations between the topological and intrinsic properties. Here, we consider a plausible scenario where people have intrinsic differences in susceptibility and adapt their social network structure to the presence of the disease. We show that the resilience of networks with heterogeneous connectivity can surpass those of networks with homogeneous connectivity. For epidemiology, this implies that network heterogeneity should not be studied in isolation, it is instead the heterogeneity of infection risk that determines the likelihood of outbreaks.

Suppressed epidemics in multirelational networks

A two-state epidemic model in networks with links mimicking two kinds of relationships between connected nodes is introduced. Links of weights w1 and w0 occur with probabilities p and 1-p, respectively. The fraction of infected nodes ρ(p) shows a nonmonotonic behavior, with ρ drops with p for small p and increases for large p. For small to moderate w1/w0 ratios, ρ(p) exhibits a minimum that signifies an optimal suppression. For large w1/w0 ratios, the suppression leads to an absorbing phase consisting only of healthy nodes within a range pL≤p≤pR, and an active phase with mixed infected and healthy nodes for p<pL and p>pR. A mean field theory that ignores spatial correlation is shown to give qualitative agreement and capture all the key features. A physical picture that emphasizes the intricate interplay between infections via w0 links and within clusters formed by nodes carrying the w1 links is presented. The absorbing state at large w1/w0 ratios results when the clusters are big enough to disrupt the spread via w0 links and yet small enough to avoid an epidemic within the clusters. A theory that uses the possible local environments of a node as variables is formulated. The theory gives results in good agreement with simulation results, thereby showing the necessity of including longer spatial correlations.

Effective degree Markov-chain approach for discrete-time epidemic processes on uncorrelated networks

Recently, Gómez et al. proposed a microscopic Markov-chain approach (MMCA) [S. Gómez, J. Gómez-Gardeñes, Y. Moreno, and A. Arenas, Phys. Rev. E 84, 036105 (2011)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.84.036105] to the discrete-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic process and found that the epidemic prevalence obtained by this approach agrees well with that by simulations. However, we found that the approach cannot be straightforwardly extended to a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic process (due to its irreversible property), and the epidemic prevalences obtained by MMCA and Monte Carlo simulations do not match well when the infection probability is just slightly above the epidemic threshold. In this contribution we extend the effective degree Markov-chain approach, proposed for analyzing continuous-time epidemic processes [J. Lindquist, J. Ma, P. Driessche, and F. Willeboordse, J. Math. Biol. 62, 143 (2011)JMBLAJ0303-681210.1007/s00285-010-0331-2], to address discrete-time binary-state (SIS) or three-state (SIR) epidemic processes on uncorrelated complex networks. It is shown that the final epidemic size as well as the time series of infected individuals obtained from this approach agree very well with those by Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are robust to the change of different parameters, including the total population size, the infection probability, the recovery probability, the average degree, and the degree distribution of the underlying networks.

Epidemic spreading on complex networks with general degree and weight distributions

The spread of disease on complex networks has attracted wide attention in the physics community. Recent works have demonstrated that heterogeneous degree and weight distributions have a significant influence on the epidemic dynamics. In this study, a novel edge-weight-based compartmental approach is developed to estimate the epidemic threshold and epidemic size (final infected density) on networks with general degree and weight distributions, and a remarkable agreement with numerics is obtained. Even in complex networks with the strong heterogeneous degree and weight distributions, this approach is used. We then propose an edge-weight-based removal strategy with different biases and find that such a strategy can effectively control the spread of epidemic when the highly weighted edges are preferentially removed, especially when the weight distribution of a network is extremely heterogenous. The theoretical results from the suggested method can accurately predict the above removal effectiveness.

Interplay of network dynamics and heterogeneity of ties on spreading dynamics

The structure of a network dramatically affects the spreading phenomena unfolding upon it. The contact distribution of the nodes has long been recognized as the key ingredient in influencing the outbreak events. However, limited knowledge is currently available on the role of the weight of the edges on the persistence of a pathogen. At the same time, recent works showed a strong influence of temporal network dynamics on disease spreading. In this work we provide an analytical understanding, corroborated by numerical simulations, about the conditions for infected stable state in weighted networks. In particular, we reveal the role of heterogeneity of edge weights and of the dynamic assignment of weights on the ties in the network in driving the spread of the epidemic. In this context we show that when weights are dynamically assigned to ties in the network, a heterogeneous distribution is able to hamper the diffusion of the disease, contrary to what happens when weights are fixed in time.

Emergence of blind areas in information spreading

Recently, contagion-based (disease, information, etc.) spreading on social networks has been extensively studied. In this paper, other than traditional full interaction, we propose a partial interaction based spreading model, considering that the informed individuals would transmit information to only a certain fraction of their neighbors due to the transmission ability in real-world social networks. Simulation results on three representative networks (BA, ER, WS) indicate that the spreading efficiency is highly correlated with the network heterogeneity. In addition, a special phenomenon, namely Information Blind Areas where the network is separated by several information-unreachable clusters, will emerge from the spreading process. Furthermore, we also find that the size distribution of such information blind areas obeys power-law-like distribution, which has very similar exponent with that of site percolation. Detailed analyses show that the critical value is decreasing along with the network heterogeneity for the spreading process, which is complete the contrary to that of random selection. Moreover, the critical value in the latter process is also larger than that of the former for the same network. Those findings might shed some lights in in-depth understanding the effect of network properties on information spreading.

Epidemic spread on weighted networks

The contact structure between hosts shapes disease spread. Most network-based models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts between two individuals. However, this assumption is known to be at odds with the data for many networks (e.g. sexual contact networks) and to have a critical influence on epidemics' behavior. One of the reasons why models usually ignore heterogeneity in transmission is that we currently lack tools to analyze weighted networks, such that most studies rely on numerical simulations. Here, we present a novel framework to estimate key epidemiological variables, such as the rate of early epidemic expansion () and the basic reproductive ratio (), from joint probability distributions of number of partners (contacts) and number of interaction events through which contacts are weighted. These distributions are much easier to infer than the exact shape of the network, which makes the approach widely applicable. The framework also allows for a derivation of the full time course of epidemic prevalence and contact behaviour, which we validate with numerical simulations on networks. Overall, incorporating more realistic contact networks into epidemiological models can improve our understanding of the emergence and spread of infectious diseases.

Understanding how infectious diseases spread has public health and ecological implications. The contact structure between hosts strongly affects this spread. However, most studies assume that all types of contacts are identical, when in reality some individuals interact more strongly than others. This is particularly striking for sexual-contact networks, where the number of sex acts is not identical for all partnerships. This heterogeneity in activity can either speed up or slow down epidemic spread depending on how strongly the individuals' number of contacts coincides with their activity. There are two limitations to current frameworks that can explain the lack of studies on weighted networks. First, analytical results are difficult to obtain, which requires numerical simulations. Second, inferring weighted networks from survey data is extremely difficult. Here, we present a novel framework that allows to alleviate these two limitations. Building on configuration type network epidemic approaches, we manage to capture disease spread on weighted networks from the distribution of the number of contacts and distribution of the number of interaction events (e.g. sex acts). This allows us to derive analytical estimates for the epidemic threshold and the rate of spread of the disease. It also allows us to readily incorporate survey data, as illustrated in this study with data from the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (NATSAL) carried out in the UK.

Slow epidemic extinction in populations with heterogeneous infection rates

We explore how heterogeneity in the intensity of interactions between people affects epidemic spreading. For that, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on a complex network, where a link connecting individuals i and j is endowed with an infection rate β(ij)=λw(ij) proportional to the intensity of their contact w(ij), with a distribution P(w(ij)) taken from face-to-face experiments analyzed in Cattuto et al. [PLoS ONE 5, e11596 (2010)]. We find an extremely slow decay of the fraction of infected individuals, for a wide range of the control parameter λ. Using a distribution of width a we identify two large regions in the a-λ space with anomalous behaviors, which are reminiscent of rare region effects (Griffiths phases) found in models with quenched disorder. We show that the slow approach to extinction is caused by isolated small groups of highly interacting individuals, which keep epidemics alive for very long times. A mean-field approximation and a percolation approach capture with very good accuracy the absorbing-active transition line for weak (small a) and strong (large a) disorder, respectively.

Random walks in weighted networks with a perfect trap: an application of Laplacian spectra

Trapping processes constitute a primary problem of random walks, which characterize various other dynamical processes taking place on networks. Most previous works focused on the case of binary networks, while there is much less related research about weighted networks. In this paper, we propose a general framework for the trapping problem on a weighted network with a perfect trap fixed at an arbitrary node. By utilizing the spectral graph theory, we provide an exact formula for mean first-passage time (MFPT) from one node to another, based on which we deduce an explicit expression for average trapping time (ATT) in terms of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Laplacian matrix associated with the weighted graph, where ATT is the average of MFPTs to the trap over all source nodes. We then further derive a sharp lower bound for the ATT in terms of only the local information of the trap node, which can be obtained in some graphs. Moreover, we deduce the ATT when the trap is distributed uniformly in the whole network. Our results show that network weights play a significant role in the trapping process. To apply our framework, we use the obtained formulas to study random walks on two specific networks: trapping in weighted uncorrelated networks with a deep trap, the weights of which are characterized by a parameter, and Lévy random walks in a connected binary network with a trap distributed uniformly, which can be looked on as random walks on a weighted network. For weighted uncorrelated networks we show that the ATT to any target node depends on the weight parameter, that is, the ATT to any node can change drastically by modifying the parameter, a phenomenon that is in contrast to that for trapping in binary networks. For Lévy random walks in any connected network, by using their equivalence to random walks on a weighted complete network, we obtain the optimal exponent characterizing Lévy random walks, which have the minimal average of ATTs taken over all target nodes.