Epidemic fronts in complex networks with metapopulation structure

Front propagation in a spatial system of weakly interacting networks

We consider the spread of epidemic in a spatial metapopulation system consisting of weakly interacting patches. Each local patch is represented by a network with a certain node degree distribution and individuals can migrate between neighboring patches. Stochastic particle simulations of the SIR model show that after a short transient, the spatial spread of epidemic has a form of a propagating front. A theoretical analysis shows that the speed of front propagation depends on the effective diffusion coefficient and on the local proliferation rate similarly to fronts described by the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation. To determine the speed of front propagation, first, the early-time dynamics in a local patch is computed analytically by employing degree based approximation for the case of a constant disease duration. The resulting delay differential equation is solved for early times to obtain the local growth exponent. Next, the reaction diffusion equation is derived from the effective master equation and the effective diffusion coefficient and the overall proliferation rate are determined. Finally, the fourth order derivative in the reaction diffusion equation is taken into account to obtain the discrete correction to the front propagation speed. The analytical results are in a good agreement with the results of stochastic particle simulations.

Epidemic Spreading on Complex Networks as Front Propagation into an Unstable State

We study epidemic arrival times in meta-population disease models through the lens of front propagation into unstable states. We demonstrate that several features of invasion fronts in the PDE context are also relevant to the network case. We show that the susceptible-infected-recovered model on a network is linearly determined in the sense that the arrival times in the nonlinear system are approximated by the arrival times of the instability in the system linearized near the disease-free state. Arrival time predictions are extended to general compartmental models with a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model as the primary example. We then study a recent model of social epidemics where higher-order interactions lead to faster invasion speeds. For these pushed fronts, we compute corrections to the estimated arrival time in this case. Finally, we show how inhomogeneities in local infection rates lead to faster average arrival times.

A tensor-based formulation of hetero-functional graph theory

Recently, hetero-functional graph theory (HFGT) has developed as a means to mathematically model the structure of large-scale complex flexible engineering systems. It does so by fusing concepts from network science and model-based systems engineering (MBSE). For the former, it utilizes multiple graph-based data structures to support a matrix-based quantitative analysis. For the latter, HFGT inherits the heterogeneity of conceptual and ontological constructs found in model-based systems engineering including system form, system function, and system concept. These diverse conceptual constructs indicate multi-dimensional rather than two-dimensional relationships. This paper provides the first tensor-based treatment of hetero-functional graph theory. In particular, it addresses the "system concept" and the hetero-functional adjacency matrix from the perspective of tensors and introduces the hetero-functional incidence tensor as a new data structure. The tensor-based formulation described in this work makes a stronger tie between HFGT and its ontological foundations in MBSE. Finally, the tensor-based formulation facilitates several analytical results that provide an understanding of the relationships between HFGT and multi-layer networks.

Spreading Properties for SIR Models on Homogeneous Trees

We consider an epidemic model of SIR type set on a homogeneous tree and investigate the spreading properties of the epidemic as a function of the degree of the tree, the intrinsic basic reproduction number and the strength of the interactions between the populations of infected individuals at each node. When the degree is one, the homogeneous tree is nothing but the standard lattice on the integers and our model reduces to a SIR model with discrete diffusion for which the spreading properties are very similar to the continuous case. On the other hand, when the degree is larger than two, we observe some new features in the spreading properties. Most notably, there exists a critical value of the strength of interactions above which spreading of the epidemic in the tree is no longer possible.

Epidemic spreading on modular networks: The fear to declare a pandemic

In the past few decades, the frequency of pandemics has been increased due to the growth of urbanization and mobility among countries. Since a disease spreading in one country could become a pandemic with a potential worldwide humanitarian and economic impact, it is important to develop models to estimate the probability of a worldwide pandemic. In this paper, we propose a model of disease spreading in a structural modular complex network (having communities) and study how the number of bridge nodes n that connect communities affects disease spread. We find that our model can be described at a global scale as an infectious transmission process between communities with global infectious and recovery time distributions that depend on the internal structure of each community and n. We find that near the critical point as n increases, the disease reaches most of the communities, but each community has only a small fraction of recovered nodes. In addition, we obtain that in the limit n→∞, the probability of a pandemic increases abruptly at the critical point. This scenario could make the decision on whether to launch a pandemic alert or not more difficult. Finally, we show that link percolation theory can be used at a global scale to estimate the probability of a pandemic since the global transmissibility between communities has a weak dependence on the global recovery time.

Optimal periodic closure for minimizing risk in emerging disease outbreaks

Without vaccines and treatments, societies must rely on non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies to control the spread of emerging diseases such as COVID-19. Though complete lockdown is epidemiologically effective, because it eliminates infectious contacts, it comes with significant costs. Several recent studies have suggested that a plausible compromise strategy for minimizing epidemic risk is periodic closure, in which populations oscillate between wide-spread social restrictions and relaxation. However, no underlying theory has been proposed to predict and explain optimal closure periods as a function of epidemiological and social parameters. In this work we develop such an analytical theory for SEIR-like model diseases, showing how characteristic closure periods emerge that minimize the total outbreak, and increase predictably with the reproductive number and incubation periods of a disease- as long as both are within predictable limits. Using our approach we demonstrate a sweet-spot effect in which optimal periodic closure is maximally effective for diseases with similar incubation and recovery periods. Our results compare well to numerical simulations, including in COVID-19 models where infectivity and recovery show significant variation.

Fragility and anomalous susceptibility of weakly interacting networks

Percolation is a fundamental concept that has brought new understanding of the robustness properties of complex systems. Here we consider percolation on weakly interacting networks, that is, network layers coupled together by much fewer interlinks than the connections within each layer. For these kinds of structures, both continuous and abrupt phase transitions are observed in the size of the giant component. The continuous (second-order) transition corresponds to the formation of a giant cluster inside one layer and has a well-defined percolation threshold. The abrupt transition instead corresponds to the merger of coexisting giant clusters among different layers and is characterized by a remarkable uncertainty in the percolation threshold, which in turns causes an anomalous behavior of the observed susceptibility. We develop a simple mathematical model able to describe this phenomenon, using a susceptibility measure that defines the range where the abrupt transition is more likely to occur. Finite-size scaling analysis in the abrupt region supports the hypothesis of a genuine first-order phase transition.

Estimating epidemic arrival times using linear spreading theory

We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is composed of a system of ordinary differential equations describing a meta-population susceptible-infected-recovered compartmental model defined on a network where each node represents a city and the edges represent the flight paths connecting cities. Making use of the linear determinacy of the system, we consider spreading speeds and arrival times in the system linearized about the unstable disease free state and compare these to arrival times in the nonlinear system. Two predictions are presented. The first is based upon expansion of the heat kernel for the linearized system. The second assumes that the dominant transmission pathway between any two cities can be approximated by a one dimensional lattice or a homogeneous tree and gives a uniform prediction for arrival times independent of the specific network features. We test these predictions on a real network describing worldwide airline traffic.

Hybrid dynamics in delay-coupled swarms with mothership networks

Swarming behavior continues to be a subject of immense interest because of its centrality in many naturally occurring systems in physics and biology, as well as its importance in applications such as robotics. Here we examine the effects on swarm pattern formation from delayed communication and topological heterogeneity, and in particular, the inclusion of a relatively small number of highly connected nodes, or "motherships," in a swarm's communication network. We find generalized forms of basic patterns for networks with general degree distributions, and a variety of dynamic behaviors including parameter regions with multistability and hybrid motions in bimodal networks. The latter is an interesting example of how heterogeneous networks can have dynamics that is a mix of different states in homogeneous networks, where high- and low-degree nodes have distinct behavior simultaneously.

Driven synchronization in random networks of oscillators

Synchronization is a universal phenomenon found in many non-equilibrium systems. Much recent interest in this area has overlapped with the study of complex networks, where a major focus is determining how a system's connectivity patterns affect the types of behavior that it can produce. Thus far, modeling efforts have focused on the tendency of networks of oscillators to mutually synchronize themselves, with less emphasis on the effects of external driving. In this work, we discuss the interplay between mutual and driven synchronization in networks of phase oscillators of the Kuramoto type, and explore how the structure and emergence of such states depend on the underlying network topology for simple random networks with a given degree distribution. We find a variety of interesting dynamical behaviors, including bifurcations and bistability patterns that are qualitatively different for heterogeneous and homogeneous networks, and which are separated by a Takens-Bogdanov-Cusp singularity in the parameter region where the coupling strength between oscillators is weak. Our analysis is connected to the underlying dynamics of oscillator clusters for important states and transitions.

The structure and dynamics of multilayer networks

In the past years, network theory has successfully characterized the interaction among the constituents of a variety of complex systems, ranging from biological to technological, and social systems. However, up until recently, attention was almost exclusively given to networks in which all components were treated on equivalent footing, while neglecting all the extra information about the temporal- or context-related properties of the interactions under study. Only in the last years, taking advantage of the enhanced resolution in real data sets, network scientists have directed their interest to the multiplex character of real-world systems, and explicitly considered the time-varying and multilayer nature of networks. We offer here a comprehensive review on both structural and dynamical organization of graphs made of diverse relationships (layers) between its constituents, and cover several relevant issues, from a full redefinition of the basic structural measures, to understanding how the multilayer nature of the network affects processes and dynamics.

Using multitype branching processes to quantify statistics of disease outbreaks in zoonotic epidemics

Branching processes have served as a model for chemical reactions, biological growth processes, and contagion (of disease, information, or fads). Through this connection, these seemingly different physical processes share some common universalities that can be elucidated by analyzing the underlying branching process. In this work we focus on coupled branching processes as a model of infectious diseases spreading from one population to another. An exceedingly important example of such coupled outbreaks are zoonotic infections that spill over from animal populations to humans. We derive several statistical quantities characterizing the first spillover event from animals to humans, including the probability of spillover, the first passage time distribution for human infection, and disease prevalence in the animal population at spillover. Large stochastic fluctuations in those quantities can make inference of the state of the system at the time of spillover difficult. Focusing on outbreaks in the human population, we then characterize the critical threshold for a large outbreak, the distribution of outbreak sizes, and associated scaling laws. These all show a strong dependence on the basic reproduction number in the animal population and indicate the existence of a novel multicritical point with altered scaling behavior. The coupling of animal and human infection dynamics has crucial implications, most importantly allowing for the possibility of large human outbreaks even when human-to-human transmission is subcritical.