Interplay of network dynamics and heterogeneity of ties on spreading dynamics

An epidemiological extension of the El Farol Bar problem

This paper presents an epidemiological extension of the El Farol Bar problem, where both a social and an epidemiological dimension are present. In the model, individual agents making binary decisions-to visit a bar or stay home-amidst a non-fatal epidemic. The extension of the classic social dilemma is implemented as an agent-based model, and it is later explored by sampling the parameter space and observing the resulting behavior. The results of this analysis suggest that the infection could be contained by increasing the information available in the underlying social system and adjusting its structure.

High-resolution contact networks of free-ranging domestic dogs Canis familiaris and implications for transmission of infection

Contact patterns strongly influence the dynamics of disease transmission in both human and non-human animal populations. Domestic dogs Canis familiaris are a social species and are a reservoir for several zoonotic infections, yet few studies have empirically determined contact patterns within dog populations. Using high-resolution proximity logging technology, we characterised the contact networks of free-ranging domestic dogs from two settlements (n = 108 dogs, covering >80% of the population in each settlement) in rural Chad. We used these data to simulate the transmission of an infection comparable to rabies and investigated the effects of including observed contact heterogeneities on epidemic outcomes. We found that dog contact networks displayed considerable heterogeneity, particularly in the duration of contacts and that the network had communities that were highly correlated with household membership. Simulations using observed contact networks had smaller epidemic sizes than those that assumed random mixing, demonstrating the unsuitability of homogenous mixing models in predicting epidemic outcomes. When contact heterogeneities were included in simulations, the network position of the individual initially infected had an important effect on epidemic outcomes. The risk of an epidemic occurring was best predicted by the initially infected individual's ranked degree, while epidemic size was best predicted by the individual's ranked eigenvector centrality. For dogs in one settlement, we found that ranked eigenvector centrality was correlated with range size. Our results demonstrate that observed heterogeneities in contacts are important for the prediction of epidemiological outcomes in free-ranging domestic dogs. We show that individuals presenting a higher risk for disease transmission can be identified by their network position and provide evidence that observable traits hold potential for informing targeted disease management strategies.

Disease persistence on temporal contact networks accounting for heterogeneous infectious periods

The infectious period of a transmissible disease is a key factor for disease spread and persistence. Epidemic models on networks typically assume an identical average infectious period for all individuals, thus allowing an analytical treatment. This simplifying assumption is, however, often unrealistic, as hosts may have different infectious periods, due, for instance, to individual host-pathogen interactions or inhomogeneous access to treatment. While previous work accounted for this heterogeneity in static networks, a full theoretical understanding of the interplay of varying infectious periods and time-evolving contacts is still missing. Here, we consider a susceptible-infectious-susceptible epidemic on a temporal network with host-specific average infectious periods, and develop an analytical framework to estimate the epidemic threshold, i.e. the critical transmissibility for disease spread in the host population. Integrating contact data for transmission with outbreak data and epidemiological estimates, we apply our framework to three real-world case studies exploring different epidemic contexts-the persistence of bovine tuberculosis in southern Italy, the spread of nosocomial infections in a hospital, and the diffusion of pandemic influenza in a school. We find that the homogeneous parametrization may cause important biases in the assessment of the epidemic risk of the host population. Our approach is also able to identify groups of hosts mostly responsible for disease diffusion who may be targeted for prevention and control, aiding public health interventions.

Epidemic Threshold in Continuous-Time Evolving Networks

Current understanding of the critical outbreak condition on temporal networks relies on approximations (time scale separation, discretization) that may bias the results. We propose a theoretical framework to compute the epidemic threshold in continuous time through the infection propagator approach. We introduce the weak commutation condition allowing the interpretation of annealed networks, activity-driven networks, and time scale separation into one formalism. Our work provides a coherent connection between discrete and continuous time representations applicable to realistic scenarios.

Social contagions on time-varying community networks

Time-varying community structures exist widely in real-world networks. However, previous studies on the dynamics of spreading seldom took this characteristic into account, especially those on social contagions. To study the effects of time-varying community structures on social contagions, we propose a non-Markovian social contagion model on time-varying community networks based on the activity-driven network model. A mean-field theory is developed to analyze the proposed model. Through theoretical analyses and numerical simulations, two hierarchical features of the behavior adoption processes are found. That is, when community strength is relatively large, the behavior can easily spread in one of the communities, while in the other community the spreading only occurs at higher behavioral information transmission rates. Meanwhile, in spatial-temporal evolution processes, hierarchical orders are observed for the behavior adoption. Moreover, under different information transmission rates, three distinctive patterns are demonstrated in the change of the whole network's final adoption proportion along with the growing community strength. Within a suitable range of transmission rate, an optimal community strength can be found that can maximize the final adoption proportion. Finally, compared with the average activity potential, the promoting or inhibiting of social contagions is much more influenced by the number of edges generated by active nodes.

Prediction of Pig Trade Movements in Different European Production Systems Using Exponential Random Graph Models

In most European countries, data regarding movements of live animals are routinely collected and can greatly aid predictive epidemic modeling. However, the use of complete movements’ dataset to conduct policy-relevant predictions has been so far limited by the massive amount of data that have to be processed (e.g., in intensive commercial systems) or the restricted availability of timely and updated records on animal movements (e.g., in areas where small-scale or extensive production is predominant). The aim of this study was to use exponential random graph models (ERGMs) to reproduce, understand, and predict pig trade networks in different European production systems. Three trade networks were built by aggregating movements of pig batches among premises (farms and trade operators) over 2011 in Bulgaria, Extremadura (Spain), and Côtes-d’Armor (France), where small-scale, extensive, and intensive pig production are predominant, respectively. Three ERGMs were fitted to each network with various demographic and geographic attributes of the nodes as well as six internal network configurations. Several statistical and graphical diagnostic methods were applied to assess the goodness of fit of the models. For all systems, both exogenous (attribute-based) and endogenous (network-based) processes appeared to govern the structure of pig trade network, and neither alone were capable of capturing all aspects of the network structure. Geographic mixing patterns strongly structured pig trade organization in the small-scale production system, whereas belonging to the same company or keeping pigs in the same housing system appeared to be key drivers of pig trade, in intensive and extensive production systems, respectively. Heterogeneous mixing between types of production also explained a part of network structure, whichever production system considered. Limited information is thus needed to capture most of the global structure of pig trade networks. Such findings will be useful to simplify trade networks analysis and better inform European policy makers on risk-based and more cost-effective prevention and control against swine diseases such as African swine fever, classical swine fever, or porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome.

Impacts of complex behavioral responses on asymmetric interacting spreading dynamics in multiplex networks

Information diffusion and disease spreading in communication-contact layered network are typically asymmetrically coupled with each other, in which disease spreading can be significantly affected by the way an individual being aware of disease responds to the disease. Many recent studies have demonstrated that human behavioral adoption is a complex and non-Markovian process, where the probability of behavior adoption is dependent on the cumulative times of information received and the social reinforcement effect of the cumulative information. In this paper, the impacts of such a non-Markovian vaccination adoption behavior on the epidemic dynamics and the control effects are explored. It is found that this complex adoption behavior in the communication layer can significantly enhance the epidemic threshold and reduce the final infection rate. By defining the social cost as the total cost of vaccination and treatment, it can be seen that there exists an optimal social reinforcement effect and optimal information transmission rate allowing the minimal social cost. Moreover, a mean-field theory is developed to verify the correctness of simulation results.

Dynamics of history-dependent epidemics in temporal networks

The structural properties of temporal networks often influence the dynamical processes that occur on these networks, e.g., bursty interaction patterns have been shown to slow down epidemics. In this paper, we investigate the effect of link lifetimes on the spread of history-dependent epidemics. We formulate an analytically tractable activity-driven temporal network model that explicitly incorporates link lifetimes. For Markovian link lifetimes, we use mean-field analysis for computing the epidemic threshold, while the effect of non-Markovian link lifetimes is studied using simulations. Furthermore, we also study the effect of negative correlation between the number of links spawned by an individual and the lifetimes of those links. Such negative correlations may arise due to the finite cognitive capacity of the individuals. Our investigations reveal that heavy-tailed link lifetimes slow down the epidemic, while negative correlations can reduce epidemic prevalence. We believe that our results help shed light on the role of link lifetimes in modulating diffusion processes on temporal networks.